Since 1950, the South has undergone the most dramatic political transformation of any region in the country. The Solid (Democratic) South is now overwhelmingly Republican, and long-disenfranchised ...African Americans vote at levels comparable to those of whites. This book's theory of relative advantage provides a new perspective on this party system transformation. Specifically, this work advances the idea that local strategic dynamics, namely the organizational development of the Republican Party and the mobilization of the black electorate, were the centerpieces of political change in the region. Written more than six decades ago, V. O. Key’s seminal work on the region highlighted the fact that the politics of the South was permeated by the issue of race. The central finding of his work is that race was, and still is, the locus of political change in the South. This conclusion stands in stark contrast to recent scholarship that points to in-migration, economic growth, or religious factors as being more pivotal agents of change. Besides the direct contribution this work makes to the study of Southern politics, it also contains implications for our understanding of party system change (including realignments), racial politics, and the role that state and local political dynamics play with regard to national politics and policymaking.
For years voters and political pundits have grumbled about the lack of real choice between Republicans and Democrats. Scholars have examined party behavior and suggested reasons for concern. ...Determining whether there is a real ideological and policy difference between U.S. political parties, and the nature of that difference, is important for political science and for democratic politics generally. Ultimately, democracy is about choices, and where choices are few, democracy is degraded. One way to examine the choices that political parties offer voters is by assessing their political platforms. Even in an era of candidate-centric politics, political party platforms spell out the general programs offered by the parties, and the platforms are heavily influenced by the policy positions of the candidates themselves. In addition, the political platform is the one document that spells out the entire program of the party. Individual candidate speeches capture only snippets (at best) of the policy choices offered to voters. Recent innovations in computerized content analysis make it possible to analyze large bodies of text such as party platforms in a systematic way by treating words as data, then analyzing them statistically.
The 2016 nomination of Hillary Clinton as the first female major party nominee for president created an unprecedented opportunity to test for evidence of explicit sexism in the electorate. ...Presidential elections normally produce two equally matched nominees with impressive public service resumes who behave similarly on the campaign trail. However, while Democrats were making history nominating the first female nominee, the Republicans also made history by selecting a nominee with no public service experience, a controversial personal background, and conduct that conflicted sharply with traditional norms of presidential candidates. In survey after survey, voters recognized that Clinton held a significant qualification advantage over Donald Trump. Yet, despite the fact that both men and women were more likely to rate Clinton as more qualified than her opponent overall, using an innovative approach via an original survey, we find evidence of implicit sexism in the way that some males evaluated Clinton compared to their female counterparts.
It is well-established that the realignment of the past half-century sorted southern whites into the Grand Old Party (GOP) while southern blacks have remained stalwart Democrats. Surprisingly, ...however, there has been little systematic investigation of the relationship between party identification and opinions toward the South's Confederate legacy. If it is indeed the case that race played the dominant role in the partisan sorting of southern whites into the Republican Party, then it should follow that contemporary GOP adherents have also taken a more favorable view toward Confederate symbols. In this study, we present data from numerous surveys that show southern whites of opposing parties have polarized on opinions toward the Confederate legacy in a historical reversal so that those aligned with the party of Abraham Lincoln are now the staunchest defenders of the "Lost Cause."
Objectives. Our research assesses the distinctiveness of Tea Party adherents among mobilized Republicans in the South. Methods. The data come from an interactive voice response (IVR) survey of ...households containing at least one Republican primary voter across nine southern states conducted approximately one month before the 2012 presidential election. We analyze the data using multivariate logistic regression. Results. Unlike other scholarship, we find no evidence that racial animosity drives the movement, but we do find a strong relationship between evangelicalism and Tea Party support. We also find Tea Party adherents are older, more likely to be men, less wealthy, more ideologically conservative, and more partisan than their fellow Republicans. Conclusions. Tea Party supporters in the South are likely to have a significant impact on the future of the Republican Party—both in the South, and nationally. The fact that our profile of southern Tea Party supporters does not include growing segments of the electorate does not bode well for the future development of the GOP.
In 2013, Virginia Republicans nominated two Tea Party conservatives for statewide office: Ken Cuccinelli and Earl Walker Jackson, Sr. They differed in two significant respects: (1) Cuccinelli has ...more political experience, and (2) Cuccinelli is white and Jackson is black. For this article, we used this quasi-experimental opportunity to examine the racial resentment explanation for Tea Party support. We found no evidence of voting patterns consistent with this characterization of Tea Party supporters. There was no significant gap between Tea Party support for Cuccinelli and Jackson, and Tea Party supporters were far more likely to cast ballots for both candidates than they were to choose one or the other. In fact, we found that racial resentment is positively associated with support for Jackson. In this election, neither Tea Party support nor racial resentment negatively affected support for the black Republican candidate for lieutenant governor.
In this paper, we introduce a recently developed methodology for assessing the assumption of causal homogeneity in a time series cross-section Granger framework. Following a description of the ...procedure and the analytical contexts for which it is appropriate, we implement this new approach to examine the transformation of the post-World War II party system in the South. Specifically, we analyze the causal relationship between black mobilization and GOP growth in the region. We find that black mobilization Granger caused Republican growth throughout the South, whereas Republican growth Granger caused black mobilization only in the deep South. We discuss the substantive significance of our results and conclude with guidelines for the appropriate use of this procedure and suggestions for future extensions of the method.
Objective. Much is known about voting behavior generally; less is known about voting behavior of African Americans in particular due in part to the overwhelming support of black voters for Democratic ...candidates. However, some argue that black conservatism on social issues could lead to more Republican voting. Methods. We test this question with a set of data on black voting behavior in a 2004 congressional race where two black candidates ran against each other. We thus hold race of candidate constant and look at the influence of social issues and party identification on black vote choice. Results. We find evidence to suggest that evangelicalism and support for the war in Iraq is related to being Republican, but that Democratic Party identification plays the dominant role in black voter decision making. Conclusions. Black conservatism on at least certain social issues is real and has the potential to influence vote choice, but the influence of Democratic Party allegiance is still a very powerful cue for black voters.
In this paper, we introduce a recently developed methodology for assessing the assumption of causal homogeneity in a time series cross-section Granger framework. Following a description of the ...procedure and the analytical contexts for which it is appropriate, we implement this new approach to examine the transformation of the post-World War II party system in the South. Specifically, we analyze the causal relationship between black mobilization and GOP growth in the region. We find that black mobilization Granger caused Republican growth throughout the South, whereas Republican growth Granger caused black mobilization only in the deep South. We discuss the substantive significance of our results and conclude with guidelines for the appropriate use of this procedure and suggestions for future extensions of the method. Adapted from the source document.
Objective. In a recent study, Steven R. Brechin and Willett Kempton show that environmentalism is present in both wealthy and poor countries and suggest that environmentalism is thus not a product of ...the postmaterialist culture shift. The purpose of the present research is to reexamine the relationship between postmaterialist values and global environmentalism. Methods. This research analyzes data from the World Values Survey, 1990-1993. Unlike the data Brechin and Kempton used, the World Values Survey includes a measure of postmaterialism. Results. This research shows that, while environmentalism is certainly universal, postmaterialist differences are also obvious. Respondents who identify as postmaterialists tend to be more concerned about the environment than are respondents who identify as materialists, regardless of the economic development level of their society. Conclusions. Brechin and Kempton's findings are inaccurate and are largely the result of overgeneralizing the postmaterialist-values thesis and using data that are inadequate to test the relationship between postmaterialism and environmentalism.
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