The recent Californian hot drought (2012-2016) precipitated unprecedented ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) mortality, largely attributable to the western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis; WPB). ...Broad-scale climate conditions can directly shape tree mortality patterns, but mortality rates respond non-linearly to climate when local-scale forest characteristics influence the behavior of tree-killing bark beetles (e.g., WPB). To test for these cross-scale interactions, we conduct aerial drone surveys at 32 sites along a gradient of climatic water deficit (CWD) spanning 350 km of latitude and 1000 m of elevation in WPB-impacted Sierra Nevada forests. We map, measure, and classify over 450,000 trees within 9 km
, validating measurements with coincident field plots. We find greater size, proportion, and density of ponderosa pine (the WPB host) increase host mortality rates, as does greater CWD. Critically, we find a CWD/host size interaction such that larger trees amplify host mortality rates in hot/dry sites. Management strategies for climate change adaptation should consider how bark beetle disturbances can depend on cross-scale interactions, which challenge our ability to predict and understand patterns of tree mortality.
Setting aside high-quality large areas of habitat to protect threatened populations is becoming increasingly difficult as humans fragment and degrade the environment. Biologists and managers ...therefore must determine the best way to shepherd small populations through the dual challenges of reductions in both the number of individuals and genetic variability. By bringing in additional individuals, threatened populations can be increased in size (demographic rescue) or provided with variation to facilitate adaptation and reduce inbreeding (genetic rescue). The relative strengths of demographic and genetic rescue for reducing extinction and increasing growth of threatened populations are untested, and which type of rescue is effective may vary with population size. Using the flour beetle (Tribolium castaneum) in a microcosm experiment, we disentangled the genetic and demographic components of rescue, and compared them with adaptation from standing genetic variation (evolutionary rescue in the strictest sense) using 244 experimental populations founded at either a smaller (50 individuals) or larger (150 individuals) size. Both types of rescue reduced extinction, and those effects were additive. Over the course of six generations, genetic rescue increased population sizes and intrinsic fitness substantially. Both large and small populations showed evidence of being able to adapt from standing genetic variation. Our results support the practice of genetic rescue in facilitating adaptation and reducing inbreeding depression, and suggest that demographic rescue alone may suffice in larger populations even if only moderately inbred individuals are available for addition.
Purpose
Wildfire spatial patterns drive ecological processes including vegetation succession and wildlife community dynamics. Such patterns may be changing due to fire suppression policies and ...climate change, making characterization of trends in post-fire mosaics important for understanding and managing fire-prone ecosystems.
Methods
For wildfires in California’s yellow pine and mixed-conifer forests, spatial pattern trends of two components of the post-fire severity matrix were assessed for 1984–2015: (1) unchanged or very low-severity and (2) high-severity, which represent remnant forest and stand-replacing fire, respectively. Trends were evaluated for metrics of total and proportional burned area, shape complexity, aggregation, and core area. Additionally, comparisons were made between management units where fire suppression is commonly practiced and those with a history of managing wildfire for ecological/resource benefits.
Results
Unchanged or very low-severity area per fire decreased proportionally through time, and became increasingly fragmented. High-severity area and core area increased on average across most of California, with the high-severity component also becoming simpler in shape in the Sierra Nevada. Compared to suppression units, managed wildfire units lack an increase in high-severity area, have less aggregated post-fire mosaics, and more high-severity spatial complexity.
Conclusions
Documented changes in severity patterns have cascading ecological effects including increased vegetation type conversion risk, habitat availability shifts, and remnant forest fragmentation. These changes likely benefit early-seral-associated species at the expense of mature closed-canopy forest-associated species. Managed wildfire appears to moderate some effects of fire suppression, and may help buy time for ecosystems and managers to respond to a changing climate.
Satellite-derived spectral indices such as the relativized burn ratio (RBR) allow fire severity maps to be produced in a relatively straightforward manner across multiple fires and broad spatial ...extents. These indices often have strong relationships with field-based measurements of fire severity, thereby justifying their widespread use in management and science. However, satellite-derived spectral indices have been criticized because their non-standardized units render them difficult to interpret relative to on-the-ground fire effects. In this study, we built a Random Forest model describing a field-based measure of fire severity, the composite burn index (CBI), as a function of multiple spectral indices, a variable representing spatial variability in climate, and latitude. CBI data primarily representing forested vegetation from 263 fires (8075 plots) across the United States and Canada were used to build the model. Overall, the model performed well, with a cross-validated R2 of 0.72, though there was spatial variability in model performance. The model we produced allows for the direct mapping of CBI, which is more interpretable compared to spectral indices. Moreover, because the model and all spectral explanatory variables were produced in Google Earth Engine, predicting and mapping of CBI can realistically be undertaken on hundreds to thousands of fires. We provide all necessary code to execute the model and produce maps of CBI in Earth Engine. This study and its products will be extremely useful to managers and scientists in North America who wish to map fire effects over large landscapes or regions.
Night-time provides a critical window for slowing or extinguishing fires owing to the lower temperature and the lower vapour pressure deficit (VPD). However, fire danger is most often assessed based ...on daytime conditions
, capturing what promotes fire spread rather than what impedes fire. Although it is well appreciated that changing daytime weather conditions are exacerbating fire, potential changes in night-time conditions-and their associated role as fire reducers-are less understood. Here we show that night-time fire intensity has increased, which is linked to hotter and drier nights. Our findings are based on global satellite observations of daytime and night-time fire detections and corresponding hourly climate data, from which we determine landcover-specific thresholds of VPD (VPD
), below which fire detections are very rare (less than 95 per cent modelled chance). Globally, daily minimum VPD increased by 25 per cent from 1979 to 2020. Across burnable lands, the annual number of flammable night-time hours-when VPD exceeds VPD
-increased by 110 hours, allowing five additional nights when flammability never ceases. Across nearly one-fifth of burnable lands, flammable nights increased by at least one week across this period. Globally, night fires have become 7.2 per cent more intense from 2003 to 2020, measured via a satellite record. These results reinforce the lack of night-time relief that wildfire suppression teams have experienced in recent years. We expect that continued night-time warming owing to anthropogenic climate change will promote more intense, longer-lasting and larger fires.
A ‘resilient’ forest endures disturbance and is likely to persist. Resilience to wildfire may arise from feedback between fire behaviour and forest structure in dry forest systems. Frequent fire ...creates fine‐scale variability in forest structure, which may then interrupt fuel continuity and prevent future fires from killing overstorey trees. Testing the generality and scale of this phenomenon is challenging for vast, long‐lived forest ecosystems. We quantify forest structural variability and fire severity across >30 years and >1000 wildfires in California's Sierra Nevada. We find that greater variability in forest structure increases resilience by reducing rates of fire‐induced tree mortality and that the scale of this effect is local, manifesting at the smallest spatial extent of forest structure tested (90 × 90 m). Resilience of these forests is likely compromised by structural homogenisation from a century of fire suppression, but could be restored with management that increases forest structural variability.
Structurally variable forests may be more likely to persist in the face of wildfire disturbance, but demonstrating this phenomenon at an ecosystem‐scale is challenging. We linked local forest structural heterogeneity to wildfire severity for over 1000 fires across a 34‐year period in the Sierra Nevada mountain range and found that greater heterogeneity strongly reduced the probability of complete tree mortality. The local‐scale effect of forest structure on fire effects feeds back to maintain landscape heterogeneity, promoting forest resilience on an ecosystem‐scale.
A key challenge in ecology is understanding how multiple drivers interact to precipitate persistent vegetation state changes. These state changes may be both precipitated and maintained by ...disturbances, but predicting whether the state change will be fleeting or persistent requires an understanding of the mechanisms by which disturbance affects the alternative communities. In the sagebrush shrublands of the western United States, widespread annual grass invasion has increased fuel connectivity, which increases the size and spatial contiguity of fires, leading to postfire monocultures of introduced annual grasses (IAG). The novel grassland state can be persistent and is more likely to promote large fires than the shrubland it replaced. But the mechanisms by which prefire invasion and fire occurrence are linked to higher postfire flammability are not fully understood. A natural experiment to explore these interactions presented itself when we arrived in northern Nevada immediately after a 50,000 ha wildfire was extinguished. We hypothesized that the novel grassland state is maintained via a reinforcing feedback where higher fuel connectivity increases burn severity, which subsequently increases postfire IAG dispersal, seed survivorship, and fuel connectivity. We used a Bayesian joint species distribution model and structural equation model framework to assess the strength of the support for each element in this feedback pathway. We found that prefire fuel connectivity increased burn severity and that higher burn severity had mostly positive effects on the occurrence of IAG and another nonnative species and mostly negative or neutral relationships with all other species. Finally, we found that the abundance of IAG seeds in the seed bank immediately after a fire had a positive effect on the fuel connectivity 3 years after the fire, completing a positive feedback promoting IAG. These results demonstrate that the strength of the positive feedback is controlled by measurable characteristics of ecosystem structure, composition, and disturbance. Further, each node in the loop is affected independently by multiple global change drivers. It is possible that these characteristics can be modeled to predict threshold behavior and inform management actions to mitigate or slow the establishment of the grass–fire cycle, perhaps via targeted restoration applications or prefire fuel treatments.
Recent advances in remotely piloted aerial systems (‘drones’) and imagery processing enable individual tree mapping in forests across broad areas with low‐cost equipment and minimal ground‐based data ...collection. One such method involves collecting many partially overlapping aerial photos, processing them using ‘structure from motion’ (SfM) photogrammetry to create a digital 3D representation and using the 3D model to detect individual trees. SfM‐based forest mapping involves myriad decisions surrounding methods and parameters for imagery acquisition and processing, but it is unclear how these individual decisions or their combinations impact the quality of the resulting forest inventories.
We collected and processed drone imagery of a moderate‐density, structurally complex mixed‐conifer stand. We tested 22 imagery collection methods (altering flight altitude, camera pitch and image overlap), 12 imagery processing parameterizations (image resolutions and depth map filtering intensities) and 286 tree detection methods (algorithms and their parameterizations) to create 7,568 tree maps. We compared these maps to a 3.23‐ha ground reference map of 1,775 trees >5 m tall that we created using traditional field survey methods.
The accuracy of individual tree detection (ITD) and the resulting tree maps was generally maximized by collecting imagery at high altitude (120 m) with at least 90% image‐to‐image overlap, photogrammetrically processing images into a canopy height model (CHM) with a twofold upscaling (coarsening) step and detecting trees from the CHM using a variable window filter after applying a moving window mean smooth to the CHM. Using this combination of methods, we mapped trees with an accuracy exceeding expectations for structurally complex forests (for canopy‐dominant trees >10 m tall, sensitivity = 0.69 and precision = 0.90). Remotely measured tree heights corresponded to ground‐measured heights with R2 = 0.95. Accuracy was higher for taller trees and lower for understorey trees and would likely be higher in less dense and less structurally complex stands.
Our results may guide others wishing to efficiently produce broad‐extent individual tree maps of conifer forests without investing substantial time tailoring imagery acquisition and processing parameters. The resulting tree maps create opportunities for addressing previously intractable ecological questions and informing forest management.
The expectations of polar or upslope distributional shifts of species ranges in response to warming climate conditions have been recently questioned. Diverse responses of different life stages to ...changing temperature and moisture regimes may alter these predicted range dynamics. Furthermore, the climate driver(s) influencing demographic rates, and the contribution of each demographic rate to population growth rate (λ), may shift across a species range. We investigated these demographic effects by experimentally manipulating climate and measuring responses of λ in nine populations spanning the elevation range of an alpine plant (Ivesia lycopodioides). Populations exhibited stable growth rates (λ ~ 1) under naturally wet conditions and declining rates (λ < 1) under naturally dry conditions. However, opposing vital rate responses to experimental heating and watering lead to negligible or negative effects on population stability. These findings indicate that life stage–specific responses to changing climate can disrupt the current relationships between population stability and climate across species ranges.
We investigated the effects of climate manipulations on population dynamics in nine populations spanning the range of an alpine plant. We find evidence for inverse responses of different life‐history transitions to the climate manipulations, leading to negligible or negative effects on population stability. Broadly, this work indicates that life stage–specific responses to changing climate can disrupt current relationships between population stability and climate across species ranges.
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