There is a paucity of information on secular trends in the age-related process by which people develop overweight or obesity. Utilizing longitudinal data in the United Kingdom birth cohort studies, ...we investigated shifts over the past nearly 70 years in the distribution of body mass index (BMI) and development of overweight or obesity across childhood and adulthood.
The sample comprised 56,632 participants with 273,843 BMI observations in the 1946 Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD; ages 2-64 years), 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS; 7-50), 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS; 10-42), 1991 Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; 7-18), or 2001 Millennium Cohort Study (MCS; 3-11). Growth references showed a secular trend toward positive skewing of the BMI distribution at younger ages. During childhood, the 50th centiles for all studies lay in the middle of the International Obesity Task Force normal weight range, but during adulthood, the age when a 50th centile first entered the overweight range (i.e., 25-29.9 kg/m2) decreased across NSHD, NCDS, and BCS from 41 to 33 to 30 years in males and 48 to 44 to 41 years in females. Trajectories of overweight or obesity showed that more recently born cohorts developed greater probabilities of overweight or obesity at younger ages. Overweight or obesity became more probable in NCDS than NSHD in early adulthood, but more probable in BCS than NCDS and NSHD in adolescence, for example. By age 10 years, the estimated probabilities of overweight or obesity in cohorts born after the 1980s were 2-3 times greater than those born before the 1980s (e.g., 0.229 95% CI 0.219-0.240 in MCS males; 0.071 0.065-0.078 in NSHD males). It was not possible to (1) model separate trajectories for overweight and obesity, because there were few obesity cases at young ages in the earliest-born cohorts, or (2) consider ethnic minority groups. The end date for analyses was August 2014.
Our results demonstrate how younger generations are likely to accumulate greater exposure to overweight or obesity throughout their lives and, thus, increased risk for chronic health conditions such as coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus. In the absence of effective intervention, overweight and obesity will have severe public health consequences in decades to come.
Objectives
To investigate longitudinal associations between polypharmacy and cognitive and physical capability and to determine whether these associations differ with cumulative exposure to ...polypharmacy.
Design
Prospective birth cohort study.
Setting
England, Scotland, and Wales.
Participants
An eligible sample of men and women from the Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development with medication data at age 69 (N=2,122, 79%).
Measurements
Cognitive capability was assessed using a word learning test, visual search speed task, and the Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination, Third Edition (ACE‐III). Physical capability was measured using chair rise speed, standing balance time, walking speed, and grip strength.
Results
Polypharmacy (5–8 prescribed medications) was present in 18.2% of participants at age 69 and excessive polypharmacy (≥9 prescribed medications) in 4.7%. Both were associated with poorer cognitive and physical capability in models adjusted for sex, education, and disease burden. Stronger associations were found for excessive polypharmacy (e.g., difference in mean ACE‐III scores comparing polypharmacy=−2.0, 95% CI=−2.8 to −1.1 and excessive polypharmacy=−2.9, 95% CI=−4.4 to −1.4 with no polypharmacy). Participants with polypharmacy at age 60 to 64 and at age 69 showed stronger Negative associations with cognitive and physical capability were stronger still in participants with polypharmacy at both age 60 to 64 and at age 69 (e.g. difference in mean chair rise speed, comparing polypharmacy with no polypharmacy at both ages=−3.9, 95% CI=−5.2 to −2.6 and at age 60–64 only=−2.5, 95% CI=−4.1 to −0.9).
Conclusion
Polypharmacy at age 60 to 64 and age 69 was associated with poorer physical and cognitive capability, even after adjusting for disease burden. Stronger negative associations were seen in participants with longstanding polypharmacy, suggesting a cumulative, dose‐dependent relationship (where dose is the number of prescribed medications). Future research aiming to improve cognitive and physical capability should consider interventions to reduce the duration and level of polypharmacy at younger ages, in addition to optimizing disease control with appropriate medications.
Mobility is the most studied and most relevant physical ability affecting quality of life with strong prognostic value for disability and survival. Natural selection has built the "engine" of ...mobility with great robustness, redundancy, and functional reserve. Efficient patterns of mobility can be acquired during development even by children affected by severe impairments. Analogously, age-associated impairments in mobility-related physiological systems are compensated and overt limitations of mobility only occur when the severity can no longer be compensated. Mobility loss in older persons usually results from multiple impairments in the central nervous system, muscles, joints, and energetic and sensory physiological systems. Early preclinical changes in these physiological systems that precede mobility loss have been poorly studied. Peak performance, rate of decline, compensatory behaviors, or subclinical deterioration of physiological resources may cumulatively influence both timing of mobility loss and chances of recovery, but their role as risk factors has not been adequately characterized. Understanding the natural history of these early changes and intervening on them would likely be the most effective strategy to reduce the burden of disability in the population. For example, young women with low bone peak mass could be counseled to start strength resistance exercise to reduce their high risk of developing osteoporosis and fracture later in life. Expanding this approach to other physiological domains requires collecting and interpreting data from life course epidemiological studies, establishing normative measures of mobility, physical function, and physical activity, and connecting them with life course trajectories of the mobility-relevant physiological domains.
High body mass index (BMI) is an important contributor to the global burden of ill-health and health inequality. Lower socioeconomic position (SEP) in both childhood and adulthood is associated with ...higher adult BMI, but how these associations have changed across time is poorly understood. We used longitudinal data to examine how childhood and adult SEP relates to BMI across adulthood in three national British birth cohorts.
The sample comprised up to 22,810 participants with 77,115 BMI observations in the 1946 MRC National Survey of Health and Development (ages 20 to 60-64), the 1958 National Child Development Study (ages 23 to 50), and the 1970 British Cohort Study (ages 26 to 42). Harmonized social class-based SEP data (Registrar General's Social Class) was ascertained in childhood (father's class at 10/11 y) and adulthood (42/43 years), and BMI repeatedly across adulthood, spanning 1966 to 2012. Associations between SEP and BMI were examined using linear regression and multilevel models. Lower childhood SEP was associated with higher adult BMI in both genders, and differences were typically larger at older ages and similar in magnitude in each cohort. The strength of association between adult SEP and BMI did not vary with age in any consistent pattern in these cohorts, but were more evident in women than men, and inequalities were larger among women in the 1970 cohort compared with earlier-born cohorts. For example, mean differences in BMI at 42/43 y amongst women in the lowest compared with highest social class were 2.0 kg/m2 (95% CI: -0.1, 4.0) in the 1946 NSHD, 2.3 kg/m2 (1.1, 3.4) in the 1958 NCDS, and 3.9 kg/m2 (2.3, 5.4) the in the 1970 BCS; mean (SD) BMI in the highest and lowest social classes were as follows: 24.9 (0.8) versus 26.8 (0.7) in the 1946 NSHD, 24.2 (0.4) versus 26.5 (0.4) in the 1958 NCDS, and 24.2 (0.3) versus 28.1 (0.8) in the 1970 BCS. Findings did not differ whether using overweight or obesity as an outcome. Limitations of this work include the use of social class as the sole indicator of SEP-while it was available in each cohort in both childhood and adulthood, trends in BMI inequalities may differ according to other dimensions of SEP such as education or income. Although harmonized data were used to aid inferences about birth cohort differences in BMI inequality, differences in other factors may have also contributed to findings-for example, differences in missing data.
Given these persisting inequalities and their public health implications, new and effective policies to reduce inequalities in adult BMI that tackle inequality with respect to both childhood and adult SEP are urgently required.
weak grip strength is a key component of sarcopenia and is associated with subsequent disability and mortality. We have recently established life course normative data for grip strength in Great ...Britain, but it is unclear whether the cut points we derived for weak grip strength are suitable for use in other settings. Our objective was to investigate differences in grip strength by world region using our data as a reference standard.
we searched MEDLINE and EMBASE for reporting age- and gender-stratified normative data for grip strength. We extracted each item of normative data and converted it on to a Z-score scale relative to our British centiles. We performed meta-regression to pool the Z-scores and compare them by world region.
our search returned 806 abstracts. Sixty papers met inclusion criteria and reported on 63 different samples. Seven UN regions were represented, although most samples (n = 44) were based in developed regions. We extracted 726 normative data items relating to 96,537 grip strength observations. Normative data from developed regions were broadly similar to our British centiles, with a pooled Z-score 0.12 SDs (95% CI: 0.07, 0.17) above the corresponding British centiles. By comparison, normative data from developing regions were clearly lower, with a pooled Z-score of -0.85 SDs (95% CI: -0.94, -0.76).
our findings support the use of our British grip strength centiles and their associated cut points in consensus definitions for sarcopenia and frailty across developed regions, but highlight the need for different cut points in developing regions.
Maturation of long-running birth cohort studies has fostered a life course approach to adult health, function, and disease and related to conceptual frameworks. Using broad concepts of human ...development including physical, cognitive, and emotional function, birth cohorts provide insights into the processes across the life course and between generations that link to adult outcomes. We discuss findings on the determinants and health consequences of lifetime trajectories of body size, cognitive and emotional function, and socioeconomic position. Findings from the studies suggest that, for some adult health outcomes, explanations will be incomplete unless exposures and processes from across the life course are taken into account. New birth cohort studies are poised to delineate further the nature and timing of life course relationships in contemporary generations of children.
Socioeconomic inequalities in childhood body-mass index (BMI) have been documented in high-income countries; however, uncertainty exists with regard to how they have changed over time, how ...inequalities in the composite parts (ie, weight and height) of BMI have changed, and whether inequalities differ in magnitude across the outcome distribution. Therefore, we aimed to investigate how socioeconomic inequalities in childhood and adolescent weight, height, and BMI have changed over time in Britain.
We used data from four British longitudinal, observational, birth cohort studies: the 1946 Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development (1946 NSHD), 1958 National Child Development Study (1958 NCDS), 1970 British Cohort Study (1970 BCS), and 2001 Millennium Cohort Study (2001 MCS). BMI (kg/m2) was derived in each study from measured weight and height. Childhood socioeconomic position was indicated by the father's occupational social class, measured at the ages of 10–11 years. We examined associations between childhood socioeconomic position and anthropometric outcomes at age 7 years, 11 years, and 15 years to assess socioeconomic inequalities in each cohort using gender-adjusted linear regression models. We also used multilevel models to examine whether these inequalities widened or narrowed from childhood to adolescence, and quantile regression was used to examine whether the magnitude of inequalities differed across the outcome distribution.
In England, Scotland, and Wales, 5362 singleton births were enrolled in 1946, 17 202 in 1958, 17 290 in 1970, and 16 404 in 2001. Low socioeconomic position was associated with lower weight at childhood and adolescent in the earlier-born cohorts (1946–70), but with higher weight in the 2001 MCS cohort. Weight disparities became larger from childhood to adolescence in the 2001 MCS but not the earlier-born cohorts (pinteraction=0·001). Low socioeconomic position was also associated with shorter height in all cohorts, yet the absolute magnitude of this difference narrowed across generations. These disparities widened with age in the 2001 MCS (pinteraction=0·002) but not in the earlier-born cohorts. There was little inequality in childhood BMI in the 1946–70 cohorts, whereas inequalities were present in the 2001 cohort and widened from childhood to adolescence in the 1958–2001 cohorts (pinteraction<0·05 in the later three cohorts but not the 1946 NSHD). BMI and weight disparities were larger in the 2001 cohort than in the earlier-born cohorts, and systematically larger at higher quantiles—eg, in the 2001 MCS at age 11 years, a difference of 0·98 kg/m2 (95% CI 0·63–1·33) in the 50th BMI percentile and 2·54 kg/m2 (1·85–3·22) difference at the 90th BMI percentile were observed.
Over the studied period (1953–2015), socioeconomic-associated inequalities in weight reversed and those in height narrowed, whereas differences in BMI and obesity emerged and widened. These substantial changes highlight the impact of societal changes on child and adolescent growth and the insufficiency of previous policies in preventing obesity and its socioeconomic inequality. As such, new and effective policies are required to reduce BMI inequalities in childhood and adolescence.
UK Economic and Social Research Council, Medical Research Council, and Academy of Medical Sciences/the Wellcome Trust.
Alcohol consumption patterns change across life and this is not fully captured in cross-sectional series data. Analysis of longitudinal data, with repeat alcohol measures, is necessary to reveal ...changes within the same individuals as they age. Such data are scarce and few studies are able to capture multiple decades of the life course. Therefore, we examined alcohol consumption trajectories, reporting both average weekly volume and frequency, using data from cohorts with repeated measures that cover different and overlapping periods of life.
Data were from nine UK-based prospective cohorts with at least three repeated alcohol consumption measures on individuals (combined sample size of 59,397 with 174,666 alcohol observations), with data spanning from adolescence to very old age (90 years plus). Information on volume and frequency of drinking were harmonised across the cohorts. Predicted volume of alcohol by age was estimated using random effect multilevel models fitted to each cohort. Quadratic and cubic polynomial terms were used to describe non-linear age trajectories. Changes in drinking frequency by age were calculated from observed data within each cohort and then smoothed using locally weighted scatterplot smoothing. Models were fitted for men and women separately.
We found that, for men, mean consumption rose sharply during adolescence, peaked at around 25 years at 20 units per week, and then declined and plateaued during mid-life, before declining from around 60 years. A similar trajectory was seen for women, but with lower overall consumption (peak of around 7 to 8 units per week). Frequent drinking (daily or most days of the week) became more common during mid to older age, most notably among men, reaching above 50% of men.
This is the first attempt to synthesise longitudinal data on alcohol consumption from several overlapping cohorts to represent the entire life course and illustrates the importance of recognising that this behaviour is dynamic. The aetiological findings from epidemiological studies using just one exposure measure of alcohol, as is typically done, should be treated with caution. Having a better understanding of how drinking changes with age may help design intervention strategies.
Abstract Objectives Supportive social relationships have been found to be related to fewer sleep problems and better sleep quality. We examined associations between positive and negative support from ...the nominated close person across 15 years of follow-up with sleep quality in older age. Methods MRC National Survey of Health and Development study members reported sleep quality at age 68 (n = 2446). Cumulative exposure to and changes in positive and negative support were derived from data at age 53, 60–64 and 68 years. Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index scores were regressed on social support measures adjusted for i) gender only then additionally ii) education, marital status, number in household, limiting illness, body mass index, caregiving, iii) and affective symptoms. Results Greater exposure to positive support and lower exposure to negative support over 15 years were independently associated with better sleep quality at age 68. Sleep quality was poorer for those who experienced declining positive support or increasing negative support. Those who nominated their spouse/partner as their closest person at age 53 but not at age 68 had poorer sleep quality than those who nominated their spouse on both occasions. These associations were not explained by the covariates, including affective symptoms. Conclusions Based on repeat data on support from the closest person, this study finds a link between declining social relationship quality and poor sleep quality. Whilst acknowledging that the association may be bi-directional, the study suggests that interventions to improve older people's social relationships may have benefits for sleep.
Early menopause is linked to an increased risk of cardiovascular disease mortality; however, the association between early menopause and incidence and timing of cardiovascular disease is unclear. We ...aimed to assess the associations between age at natural menopause and incidence and timing of cardiovascular disease.
We harmonised and pooled individual-level data from 15 observational studies done across five countries and regions (Australia, Scandinavia, the USA, Japan, and the UK) between 1946 and 2013. Women who had reported their menopause status, age at natural menopause (if postmenopausal), and cardiovascular disease status (including coronary heart disease and stroke) were included. We excluded women who had hysterectomy or oophorectomy and women who did not report their age at menopause. The primary endpoint of this study was the occurrence of first non-fatal cardiovascular disease, defined as a composite outcome of incident coronary heart disease (including heart attack and angina) or stroke (including ischaemic stroke or haemorrhagic stroke). We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate multivariate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for the associations between age at menopause and incident cardiovascular disease event. We also adjusted the model to account for smoking status, menopausal hormone therapy status, body-mass index, and education levels. Age at natural menopause was categorised as premenopausal or perimenopausal, younger than 40 years (premature menopause), 40–44 years (early menopause), 45–49 years (relatively early), 50–51 years (reference category), 52–54 years (relatively late), and 55 years or older (late menopause).
Overall, 301 438 women were included in our analysis. Of these 301 438 women, 12 962 (4·3%) had a first non-fatal cardiovascular disease event after menopause, of whom 9369 (3·1%) had coronary heart disease and 4338 (1·4%) had strokes. Compared with women who had menopause at age 50–51 years, the risk of cardiovascular disease was higher in women who had premature menopause (age <40 years; HR 1·55, 95% CI 1·38–1·73; p<0·0001), early menopause (age 40–44 years; 1·30, 1·22–1·39; p<0·0001), and relatively early menopause (age 45–49 years; 1·12, 1·07–1·18; p<0·0001), with a significantly reduced risk of cardiovascular disease following menopause after age 51 years (p<0·0001 for trend). The associations persisted in never smokers, and were strongest before age 60 years for women with premature menopause (HR 1·88, 1·62–2·20; p<0·0001) and early menopause (1·40, 1·27–1·54; p<0·0001), but were attenuated at age 60–69 years, with no significant association observed at age 70 years and older.
Compared with women who had menopause at age 50–51 years, women with premature and early menopause had a substantially increased risk of a non-fatal cardiovascular disease event before the age of 60 years, but not after age 70 years. Women with earlier menopause need close monitoring in clinical practice, and age at menopause might also be considered as an important factor in risk stratification of cardiovascular disease for women.
Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.
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