We present the results of simulations carried out with the Met Office Unified Model at 12, 4 and 1.5 km resolution for a large region centred on West Africa using several different representations of ...the convection processes. These span a range of resolutions from much coarser than the size of the convection processes to cloud‐system‐resolving and thus encompass the intermediate ‘grey zone’. The diurnal cycle in the extent of convective regions in the models is tested against observations from the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget instrument on Meteosat‐8. By this measure, the two best‐performing simulations are a 12 km model without convective parametrization, using Smagorinsky‐style subgrid‐scale mixing in all three dimensions, and a 1.5 km simulation with two‐dimensional Smagorinsky mixing. Of these, the 12 km model produces a better match to the magnitude of the total cloud fraction but the 1.5 km one results in better timing for its peak value. The results suggest that the previously reported improvement in the representation of the diurnal cycle of convective organization in the 4 km model compared with the standard 12 km configuration is principally a result of the convection scheme employed rather than the improved resolution per se. The details of this result and implications for high‐resolution model simulations are discussed.
Abstract
Background
People with severe mental illness (SMI), such as schizophrenia, have higher rates of physical long-term conditions (LTCs), poorer health outcomes, and shorter life expectancy ...compared with the general population. Previous research exploring SMI and diabetes highlights that people with SMI experience barriers to self-management, a key component of care in long-term conditions; however, this has not been investigated in the context of other LTCs. The aim of this study was to explore the lived experience of co-existing SMI and LTCs for service users, carers, and healthcare professionals.
Methods
A qualitative study with people with SMI and LTCs, their carers, and healthcare professionals, using semi-structured interviews, focused observations, and focus groups across the UK. Forty-one interviews and five focus groups were conducted between December 2018 and April 2019. Transcripts were coded by two authors and analysed thematically.
Results
Three themes were identified, 1) the precarious nature of living with SMI, 2) the circularity of life with SMI and LTCs, and 3) the constellation of support for self-management. People with co-existing SMI and LTCs often experience substantial difficulties with self-management of their health due to the competing demands of their psychiatric symptoms and treatment, social circumstances, and access to support. Multiple long-term conditions add to the burden of self-management. Social support, alongside person-centred professional care, is a key facilitator for managing health. An integrated approach to both mental and physical healthcare was suggested to meet service user and carer needs.
Conclusion
The demands of living with SMI present a substantial barrier to self-management for multiple co-existing LTCs. It is important that people with SMI can access person-centred, tailored support for their LTCs that takes into consideration individual circumstances and priorities.
Southern Africa is characterised by unusually elevated topography and abnormal heat flow. This can be explained by thermal perturbation of the mantle, but the origin of this is unclear. Geophysics ...has not detected a thermal anomaly in the upper mantle and there is no geochemical evidence of an asthenosphere mantle contribution to the Cenozoic volcanic record of the region. Here we show that natural CO
seeps along the Ntlakwe-Bongwan fault within KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, have C-He isotope systematics that support an origin from degassing mantle melts. Neon isotopes indicate that the melts originate from a deep mantle source that is similar to the mantle plume beneath Réunion, rather than the convecting upper mantle or sub-continental lithosphere. This confirms the existence of the Quathlamba mantle plume and importantly provides the first evidence in support of upwelling deep mantle beneath Southern Africa, helping to explain the regions elevation and abnormal heat flow.
A mesoscale convective system (MCS) case study was observed over northeast Mali as part of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) on 31 July 2006. Observations of this case suggest ...that the soil‐moisture heterogeneity and atmospheric gravity waves emitted from a ‘parent’ MCS were important trigger mechanisms for this system. This study uses high‐resolution Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) simulations to assess the importance of the synoptic circulation, land‐surface and gravity waves in the initiation and development of the MCS. During the early afternoon shallow convection developed over a region of dry soil within a synoptic‐scale convergence zone, which was caused by the confluence of the southerly monsoon flow with winds associated with the circulation around the Saharan heat low. Two pronounced waves were emitted from a nearby ‘parent’ storm and propagated towards the convergence zone. When the second wave reached the location of the shallow convection, deep convection was immediately initiated. Further convective cells developed later in the afternoon over dry soil, many adjacent to strong soil moisture gradients; these aggregated with the main storm, which later developed into the case study MCS. A comparison of model simulations with/without the soil‐moisture heterogeneity and gravity waves shows that the synoptic‐scale circulation and convergence zones, specified by the atmospheric analysis, were the most important factors for the successful simulation of the MCS. If the location of the initiation of the system is to be forecast accurately, the land‐surface, that is, the soil moisture, must be represented adequately. In order to reproduce the timing of the secondary initiation of convection correctly the model must be able to capture gravity waves that are emitted by existing systems.
The carpometric characteristics, major antioxidant components, and antioxidant activity of three commercial New Zealand tomato cultivars, Excell, Tradiro, and Flavourine were studied in a greenhouse ...over a period of 8 months. The variations in the solar radiations received, temperature inside the greenhouse, and changes in the fruit load over the study period significantly (
P
<
0.05
) affected the antioxidant components of tomatoes. The total phenolics and antioxidant activity in the three cultivars ranged from 169 to 579
mg gallic acid equivalents/100
g dry matter (DM) and 1684 to 3340
μ
m TEAC/100
g DM, respectively, during the study period. The mean total phenolics and antioxidant activity of the three cultivars was 62% and 39% higher, respectively, in summer (December–February) than in spring (September–November). The ascorbic acid and lycopene content of the three cultivars varied between 165 and 252
mg/100
g DM and from 19 to 73
mg/100
g DM, respectively, during the study period. The mean lycopene content of the three cultivars was 31% lower in the summer months than at other times of the study. This study indicates that the antioxidant components of tomatoes can vary considerably with the changes in environmental conditions within the greenhouse and the levels of antioxidants in greenhouse grown tomatoes could be elevated throughout the growing season by modifying the environmental conditions inside the greenhouses.
A study was made of the antioxidant content, activity and colour of two New Zealand commercially grown tomatoes (
Lycopersicon esculentum L
. var. Excell and Aranca) cultivated in glasshouses using ...hydroponic techniques. Excell tomatoes were harvested and stored individually while cultivar Aranca was harvested by cutting the vine, which consisted of a group of eight tomatoes. Both cultivars of tomatoes were stored in the dark for 4 days at 15°C to simulate normal pre-purchase storing conditions. The antioxidant content of the raw tomatoes after 4 days of storage were markedly different while the CIE LAB colour values of the cut inner surfaces of the two cultivars were similar. After 4 days storage, subsamples of each cultivar were either boiled, baked or fried, and analysis of CIE colour, ascorbic acid, total phenolics, lycopene and antioxidant activity (using the ABTS assay) was undertaken. Boiling and baking had a relatively small effect on the ascorbic, total phenolic, lycopene and antioxidant activity of the two cultivars while frying significantly reduced (
P<0.001) the ascorbic, total phenolic and lycopene contents of the two cultivars. Chromatic colour analysis showed that both cultivars became significantly (
P<0.001) darker and less red after cooking by all methods.
In a following experiment, the two cultivars of tomatoes were sliced and allowed to soak for 20
min in a mixture of olive oil and white vinegar, or olive oil and white vinegar separately. CIE colour of the two cultivars showed no change after processing but the treatments of oil and vinegar separately and together reduced (
P<0.05) the red component of the colour. Treating the two cultivars of tomatoes with the oil and vinegar mixture resulted in a significant reduction (
P<0.001) in the ascorbic acid, total phenolic and antioxidant activity of the tomatoes. Treatment with oil significantly reduced the amount of lycopene that could be extracted from the tomatoes while treatment with vinegar had no effect.
We introduce a technique for assessing the diurnal development of convective storm systems based on outgoing longwave radiation fields. Using the size distribution of the storms measured from a ...series of images, we generate an array in the length scale‐time domain based on the standard score statistic. It demonstrates succinctly the size evolution of storms as well as the dissipation kinematics. It also provides evidence related to the temperature evolution of the cloud tops. We apply this approach to a test case comparing observations made by the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget instrument to output from the Met Office Unified Model run at two resolutions. The 12 km resolution model produces peak convective activity on all length scales significantly earlier in the day than shown by the observations and no evidence for storms growing in size. The 4 km resolution model shows realistic timing and growth evolution, although the dissipation mechanism still differs from the observed data.
Tropospheric aerosol radiative forcing has persisted for many years as one of the major causes of uncertainty in global climate model simulations. To sample the range of plausible aerosol and ...atmospheric states and perform robust statistical analyses of the radiative forcing, it is important to account for the combined effects of many sources of model uncertainty, which is rarely done due to the high computational cost. This paper describes the designs of two ensembles of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Environment Model‐U.K. Chemistry and Aerosol global climate model and provides the first analyses of the uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing and their causes. The first ensemble was designed to comprehensively sample uncertainty in the aerosol state, while the other samples additional uncertainties in the physical model related to clouds, humidity, and radiation, thereby allowing an analysis of uncertainty in the aerosol effective radiative forcing. Each ensemble consists of around 200 simulations of the preindustrial and present‐day atmospheres. The uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing in our ensembles is comparable to the range of estimates from multimodel intercomparison projects. The mean aerosol effective radiative forcing is −1.45 W/m2 (credible interval of −2.07 to −0.81 W/m2), which encompasses but is more negative than the −1.17 W/m2 in the 2013 Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project and −0.90 W/m2 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The ensembles can be used to reduce aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty by challenging them with multiple measurements as well as to isolate potential causes of multimodel differences.
Plain Language Summary
Atmospheric aerosol particles such as dust, pollutants, and smoke interfere with light from the Sun and modify the properties of clouds and thereby affect Earth's climate. However, the effect that aerosols have on climate is one of the major causes of uncertainty in global climate model simulations. We performed a large number of climate model simulations (called an ensemble), with many parts of the model slightly varied, in order to understand the complex behavior of the model and to explore the causes of uncertainty in model outputs. This paper describes the designs of two climate model ensembles and provides the first analyses of the causes of model uncertainty. The first ensemble was designed to comprehensively understand the behavior of aerosols in the atmosphere, while the other includes more general uncertainties in atmospheric processes that can affect aerosols. Each ensemble consists of around 200 simulations. The ranges of the aerosol climate effect in our ensembles are comparable to the ranges of previous estimates from studies that analyzed multiple climate models. These ensembles can be used to reduce uncertainty in how aerosols affect climate by comparing with satellite and ground‐based measurements.
Key Points
Two ensembles of atmospheric simulations were performed perturbing aerosol and physical parameters under different model setups
Thousands of Gaussian process emulators sampling parameter spaces enabled statistical analyses of model's parametric uncertainty.
Fully explored parametric uncertainty of aerosol radiative forcing in a model was found to be comparable to that in multimodel studies
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