This study examined the extent to which sexual offenders present an enduring risk for sexual recidivism over a 20-year follow-up period. Using an aggregated sample of 7,740 sexual offenders from 21 ...samples, the yearly recidivism rates were calculated using survival analysis. Overall, the risk of sexual recidivism was highest during the first few years after release, and decreased substantially the longer individuals remained sex offense–free in the community. This pattern was particularly strong for the high-risk sexual offenders (defined by Static-99R scores). Whereas the 5-year sexual recidivism rate for high-risk sex offenders was 22% from the time of release, this rate decreased to 4.2% for the offenders in the same static risk category who remained offense-free in the community for 10 years. The recidivism rates of the low-risk offenders were consistently low (1%-5%) for all time periods. The results suggest that offense history is a valid, but time-dependent, indicator of the propensity to sexually reoffend. Further research is needed to explain the substantial rate of desistance by high-risk sexual offenders.
When an electron is incident on a superconductor from a metal, it is reflected as a hole in a process called Andreev reflection. If the metal N is sandwiched between two superconductors S in an SNS ...junction, multiple Andreev reflections (MARs) occur. We have found that, in SNS junctions with high transparency (τ → 1) based on the Dirac semimetal MoTe2, the MAR features are observed with exceptional resolution. By tuning the phase difference φ between the bracketing Al superconductors, we establish that the MARs coexist with a Josephson supercurrent Is=IA sinφ. As we vary the junction voltage V, the supercurrent amplitude IA varies in step with the MAR order n, revealing a direct relation between them. Two successive Andreev reflections serve to shuttle a Cooper pair across the junction. If the pair is shuttled coherently, it contributes to Is. The experiment measures the fraction of pairs shuttled coherently vs. V. Surprisingly, superconductivity in MoTe2 does not affect the MAR features.
Effective intervention with offenders requires accurate identification of their risk-relevant propensities. In this prospective study, 139 Canadian community supervision officers were trained to ...assess the risk factors and criminogenic needs of adult male sexual offenders using structured risk tools. Recidivism outcomes were recorded for 768 offenders (average age of 41 years, approximately half had child victims, 14% Aboriginal) during an average 7-year follow-up period. All forms of recidivism (sexual, violent, any) were predicted by sex crime specific risk tools based on static, historical factors (Static-99R; Static-2002R) and by tools designed to assess psychologically meaningful risk factors of sexual offenders (STABLE-2000; STABLE-2007). Professional overrides of the Static-99 scores did not improve predictive accuracy. STABLE-2007 scores added incrementally over STATIC scores for all recidivism outcomes, but only for complete cases, suggesting meaningful variation in the extent to which community supervision officers can assess psychologically meaningful risk factors for sexual offenders.
Hexabromocyclododecanes (HBCDs) are brominated aliphatic cyclic hydrocarbons used as flame retardants in thermal insulation building materials, upholstery textiles, and electronics. As a result of ...their widespread use and their physical and chemical properties, HBCDs are now ubiquitous contaminants in the environment and humans. This review summarizes HBCD concentrations in several environmental compartments and analyzes these data in terms of point sources versus diffuse sources, biomagnification potential, stereoisomer profiles, time trends, and global distribution. Generally, higher concentra tions were measured in samples (air, sediment, and fish) collected near point sources (plants producing or processing HBCDs), while lower concentrations were recorded in samples from locations with no obvious sources of HBCDs. High concentrations were measured in top predators, such as marine mammals and birds of prey (up to 9600 and 19 200 ng/g lipid weight, respectively), suggesting a biomagnification potential for HBCDs. Relatively low HBCD concentrations were reported in the few human studies conducted to date (median values varied between 0.35 and 1.1 ng/g lipid weight). HBCD levels in biota are increasing slowly and seem to reflect the local market demand. One important observation is the shift from the high percentage of the γ-HBCD stereoisomer in the technical products to a dominance of the α-HBCD stereoisomer in biological samples. A combination of factors such as variations in solubility, partitioning behavior, uptake, and, possibly, selective metabolism of individual isomers may explain the observed changes in stereoisomer patterns. Recommendations for further work include research on how HBCDs are transferred from products into the environment upon production, use, and disposal. Time trends need to be analyzed more in detail, including HBCD stereoisomers, and more data on terrestrial organisms are needed, especially for humans. Whenever possible, HBCDs should be analyzed as individual stereoisomers in order to address their fate and effects.
Observations of neutral-current nu interactions on deuterium in the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory are reported. Using the neutral current (NC), elastic scattering, and charged current reactions and ...assuming the standard 8B shape, the nu(e) component of the 8B solar flux is phis(e) = 1.76(+0.05)(-0.05)(stat)(+0.09)(-0.09)(syst) x 10(6) cm(-2) s(-1) for a kinetic energy threshold of 5 MeV. The non-nu(e) component is phi(mu)(tau) = 3.41(+0.45)(-0.45)(stat)(+0.48)(-0.45)(syst) x 10(6) cm(-2) s(-1), 5.3sigma greater than zero, providing strong evidence for solar nu(e) flavor transformation. The total flux measured with the NC reaction is phi(NC) = 5.09(+0.44)(-0.43)(stat)(+0.46)(-0.43)(syst) x 10(6) cm(-2) s(-1), consistent with solar models.
There has been considerable research on relative predictive accuracy (i.e., discrimination) in offender risk assessment (e.g., Are high-risk offenders more likely to reoffend than low-risk ...offenders?), but virtually no research on the accuracy or stability of absolute recidivism estimates (i.e., calibration). The current study aimed to fill this gap by examining absolute and relative risk estimates for certain Static sex offender assessment tools. Logistic regression coefficients for Static-99R and Static-2002R were combined through meta-analysis (8,106 sex offenders; 23 samples). The sexual recidivism rates for typical sex offenders are lower than the public generally believes. Static-99R and Static-2002R both demonstrated remarkably consistent relative predictive accuracy across studies. For both scales, however, the predicted recidivism rates within each risk score demonstrated large and significant variability across studies. The authors discuss how the variability in recidivism rates complicates the estimation of recidivism probability in applied assessments.
Abstract
A phase 1 dose-escalation trial assessed the chemotherapeutic potential of ammonium perfluorooctanoate (APFO). Forty-nine primarily solid-tumor cancer patients who failed standard therapy ...received weekly APFO doses (50–1200 mg) for 6 weeks. Clinical chemistries and plasma PFOA (anionic APFO) were measured predose and weekly thereafter. Several clinical measures including total cholesterol, high-density lipoproteins (HDLs), thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), and free thyroxine (fT4), relative to PFOA concentrations were examined by: Standard statistical analyses using generalized estimating equations (GEE) and a probabilistic analysis using probability distribution functions (pdf) at various PFOA concentrations; and a 2-compartment pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) model to directly estimate mean changes. Based on the GEE, the average rates of change in total cholesterol and fT4 associated with increasing PFOA were approximately −1.2×10−3 mmol/l/μM and 2.8×10−3 pmol/l/μM, respectively. The PK/PD model predicted more closely the trends observed in the data as well as the pdfs of biomarkers. A decline in total cholesterol was observed, with a clear transition in shape and range of the pdfs, manifested by the maximum value of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, that occurred at plasma PFOA between 420 and 565 μM (175 000–230 000 ng/ml). High-density lipoprotein was unchanged. An increase in fT4 was observed at a higher PFOA transition point, albeit TSH was unchanged. Our findings are consistent with some animal models and may motivate re-examination of the epidemiologic studies to PFOA at levels several orders of magnitude lower than this study. These observational studies have reported contrary associations, but currently understood biology does not support the existence of such conflicting effects.
Executive dysfunctions are a key clinical feature of behavioural-variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD). Such deficits are also found in Alzheimer's disease (AD), making the differentiation between ...these two diseases difficult at times, particularly in the absence of extensive cognitive assessments. To address this issue, we developed the FRONTIER Executive Screen (FES), which combines three abbreviated measures of verbal fluency, inhibitory control and working memory.
We administered the FES to 28 patients with dementia (14 bvFTD, 14 AD) matched for disease severity and 33 age-matched and education-matched healthy controls. We also administered traditional tests of executive function to establish the concurrent validity of the FES.
Both patient groups obtained lower FES scores (total and subscores) compared to controls. Correct classification into patient or control groups was reached in over 90% of study participants based on the FES total score. Only two patients with bvFTD obtained FES scores within 2 SDs of the control group. Receiver operating characteristic analyses on the patient groups showed that a cut-off FES total score of 7/15 achieved 71% sensitivity and 73% specificity for a diagnosis of bvFTD. In addition, the FES showed high correlations with traditional measures of executive function.
The FES is a brief (5-10 min) bedside screening measure which is simple to administer and score, and demonstrates good discriminative validity to differentiate bvFTD from AD. It is a useful addendum to general cognitive screening measures and can help with the differential diagnosis of dementia.
We present a novel method for estimating galaxy physical properties from spectral energy distributions (SEDs) as an alternative to template fitting techniques and based on self-organizing maps (SOMs) ...to learn the high-dimensional manifold of a photometric galaxy catalog. The method has previously been tested with hydrodynamical simulations in Davidzon et al. (2019, MNRAS, 489, 4817), however, here it is applied to real data for the first time. It is crucial for its implementation to build the SOM with a high-quality panchromatic data set, thus we selected “COSMOS2020” galaxy catalog for this purpose. After the training and calibration steps with COSMOS2020, other galaxies can be processed through SOMs to obtain an estimate of their stellar mass and star formation rate (SFR). Both quantities resulted in a good agreement with independent measurements derived from more extended photometric baseline and, in addition, their combination (i.e., the SFR vs. stellar mass diagram) shows a main sequence of star-forming galaxies that is consistent with the findings of previous studies. We discuss the advantages of this method compared to traditional SED fitting, highlighting the impact of replacing the usual synthetic templates with a collection of empirical SEDs built by the SOM in a “data-driven” way. Such an approach also allows, even for extremely large data sets, for an efficient visual inspection to identify photometric errors or peculiar galaxy types. While also considering the computational speed of this new estimator, we argue that it will play a valuable role in the analysis of oncoming large-area surveys such as
Euclid
of the Legacy Survey of Space and Time at the
Vera C. Rubin
Telescope.
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