This research studies the non‐linear relationship between interest rates and exchange rates for China and the United States using the rolling‐window method. We also investigate uncovered interest ...rate parity (UIP) and the capital market theory for the whole time period and subperiods so as to reconsider various economic connections between China and the United States. The results suggest that the effect of the latter's interest rate adjustment on China/U.S. exchange rate volatility is stronger than that of China's interest rate adjustment. Moreover, changes in the China/U.S. exchange rate have a slightly stronger effect on the U.S. interest rate than on China's interest rate. Our findings reveal that the interest rate parity theory does not hold for the entire sample period but may hold in subperiods. The results provide a reference for the steady implementation of RMB internationalization.
This paper discusses whether high‐speed rail (HSR) construction in China promotes urban economic growth, and it uses social network analysis (SNA) and a panel threshold model. We provide robust ...evidence that HSR networks have non‐linear effects on the urban economy. Urban location and transportation hub status change as the density of HSR networks increases, and from 2008 to 2017, the national average annual growth rate of the weighted degree centrality (WDC) was 44.93%. We find the WDC and betweenness centrality (BC) have positive influences on urban economic growth. However, HSR network expansion reduces the economic benefits of HSR because the marginal contribution of new HSR lines to economic productivity decreases and there is a crowding out effect caused by excessive agglomeration. HSR networks can promote the economy of Western China to a greater extent and can promote the economy more in small cities than in large and medium‐sized cities. These findings can help the government rationalize its strategy for designing HSR lines in various regions.
Resumen
Este artículo analiza si la construcción del tren de alta velocidad (TAV) en China promueve el crecimiento económico urbano, y utiliza el análisis de redes sociales (ARS) y un modelo por umbrales con datos de panel. Se aportan pruebas rigurosas de que las redes de TAV tienen efectos no lineales en la economía urbana. La ubicación urbana y el estatus de los nodos de transporte cambian a medida que aumenta la densidad de las redes de TAV y, desde 2008 hasta 2017, la tasa promedio de crecimiento anual nacional de la centralidad de grado ponderado (WDC, por sus siglas en inglés) fue del 44,93%. Se encontró que la WDC y la centralidad de intermediación (CI) tienen una influencia positiva en el crecimiento económico urbano. Sin embargo, la expansión de la red de TAV reduce los beneficios económicos del TAV porque la contribución marginal de las nuevas líneas de TAV a la productividad económica disminuye y se produce un efecto de exclusión causado por la excesiva aglomeración. Las redes de TAV pueden fomentar la economía del oeste de China en gran medida y pueden fomentar la economía más en las ciudades pequeñas que en las grandes y medianas. Estos resultados pueden ayudar al gobierno a racionalizar su estrategia de diseño de las líneas de TAV en diferentes regiones.
抄録
本稿は、中国における高速鉄道 (high‐speed rail: HSR)建設が都市経済の成長を促進するかどうか、社会ネットワーク分析とパネル閾値モデルを用いて考察する。HSRネットワークが都市経済に非線形効果をもたらすことを示す頑健なエビデンスを提示する。都市の位置と交通ハブの状況は、HSRネットワークの密度が上昇するにつれて変化し、2008~2017年までの重み付き次数中心性(weighted degree centrality: WDC)の年間の成長率の全国平均は44.93%であった。WDCと媒介中心性は、都市経済の成長にプラスの影響を及ぼすことが分かった。しかし、新しいHSR路線の経済的生産性に対する限界利益が減少し、過剰な集積が引き起こすクラウディングアウト効果のため、HSRネットワークの拡大はHSRの経済的利益を減少させる。HSRネットワークは、中国西部の経済をさらに発展させることができるが、大都市や中都市よりも小都市の経済を促進するものである。これらの知見は、政府が様々な地域におけるHSRの建設の計画戦略を合理化する際に有用となる。
This paper applies bootstrap panel Granger causality to test the relationship between urbanization and real estate investment from 1990 to 2014 for 29 provinces in China. We argue that the patterns ...of interaction between urbanization and investment in real estate vary across regions. The results show that urbanization does Granger‐cause investment in real estate, primarily in the central and northeastern regions of China, while urbanization does not Granger‐cause investment in real estate in the eastern and western regions, except for four provinces. Most regions do not have a Granger‐causality relationship from real estate investment to urbanization; the exceptions are Henan and Hei Longjiang provinces. Our results only support one theory on the relationship between urbanization and the real estate market for one‐third of the provinces. Thus, urbanization can improve real estate investment by increasing the demand for housing as a result of population agglomeration, but urbanization does not depend on real estate investment in China.
Convergence of the world’s energy use Liu, Tie-Ying; Lee, Chien-Chiang
Resource and energy economics,
November 2020, 2020-11-00, Letnik:
62
Journal Article
Recenzirano
•Examine the convergence of the world’s energy use for 107 countries.•Use the sequential panel selection method.•Seven out of ten countries have been convergent during the periods examined.•Strong ...decoupling across countries does not exist.•Energy export countries converge ahead of energy importers in sequence.
This paper uses the sequential panel selection method to examine the convergence of the energy use of 107 countries. It contributes by analyzing the order of convergence and the factors affecting the difference in convergence using improved methods. We provide robust evidence to indicate that seven out of ten countries have been convergent during the period examined, and strong decoupling across countries does not exist. Additionally, high-income and upper-middle-income countries show convergence characteristics earlier than lower middle-income and low-income countries. This means that high-income and upper-middle-income countries are the first to achieve steady-state levels by adjusting their industrial structure and adopting new technologies, and energy exporters have dominant control over energy use. We find that energy-exporting countries converge before energy importers do. These results mean that the energy use of most countries is in accordance with the convergence theory. It also shows that GDP per capita, industrialization level and latitude have great impacts on convergence, especially for industrialization. Our research provides a reference for countries around the world to adjust their energy use policies and to realize a rational flow of energy resources.
This study applies the rolling-window causality test to analyze the interaction between transportation infrastructure and urbanization in China. Our results obviously support search-matching theory ...in that transportation infrastructure exerts positive effects on urbanization in sub-sample periods. Urbanization does not Granger cause transportation infrastructure development except for the 1977–1980 period, when urbanization exerted negative effects on transportation infrastructure. The transportation structure is inadequate, and rational allocation of transportation resources is needed to improve the level of urbanization. This means that transportation improves urbanization due to government investment and regional integration. Development of transportation infrastructure has been rapid, which improved urbanization during the Great Cultural Revolution period. Urbanization urgently needs to keep up with the development of traffic infrastructure construction by adding to traffic investment. Transportation infrastructure requires whole planning, a unified layout, and rational adjustment of the transportation structure.
•Interaction between transportation infrastructure and urbanization in China.•Support search-matching theory in that transportation infrastructure exerts positive effects on urbanization.•Transportation improves urbanization due to government investment and regional integration.•Keep up with the development of traffic infrastructure construction by adding to traffic investment.
•We study the China–US exchange rate bubbles from a nonlinear perspective.•This study quantitatively assesses the determinants of the exchange rate bubbles.•We find two bubble periods in the China–US ...exchange rate.•The difference in interest rates between the US and China positively impact China–US exchange rate bubbles.
This study uses the generalized sup augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF) method to study the beginnings and endings of the China–US exchange rate bubbles that occurred during the period 1981–2021 and the factors that affected those exchange rate bubbles from a nonlinear perspective. The contribution of this paper is to quantitatively assess the determinants of these bubbles. We find two bubble periods in the China–US exchange rate, one from January 1985 to December 1986 and the other from August 2005 to August 2015. Our findings suggest that the Chinese interest rate and the difference in interest rates between the US and China positively impact China–US exchange rate bubbles, while the US interest rate has no effect on the exchange rate bubble in bubble periods. Additionally, FDI from China to the US and the subprime crisis negatively influence China–US exchange rate bubbles. The findings of this paper are of value as a reference for maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate.
This paper focuses on the spatial structure convergence of China's transportation system from 1978 to 2016 using the sequential panel selection method (SPSM). The contribution of this research is ...that the convergence order and the factors affecting the difference in convergence rates are analysed using improved econometric methods. Our robust conclusions show the convergence of China's transportation structure within different provinces, except for Hubei province. In terms of the different regions, the eastern and western regions have local convergence characteristics, while the central region presents non-convergence characteristics, especially in Henan, Hei Longjiang, Jilin, Anhui, and Hubei provinces. The spatial spillover characteristics of transportation structure convergence are most obvious in northwest China. We also examine the main factors that influence the rate of convergence and find that urbanization promotes the convergence of the transportation structure, while local protectionism hinders the spatial convergence of the transportation structure. Additionally, China's transportation infrastructure is more policy-driven than economics-driven. This study provides a reference study for analysing the regional development balance of China's transportation structure and regional differences.
In this paper, we employ recursive unit-root tests to identify the beginnings and ends of potential speculative bubbles in the energy price market. The major advantage of this approach is that it ...allows one to account for a nonlinear structure and break while investigating the possible existence of multiple structural breaks resulting from these bubbles. The evidence finds the efficient market hypothesis has been the failure in most of the energy market. It shows that the gasoline spot market price is volatile, and investors in gasoline markets have more speculative opportunities than those investors who enter coal and oil markets. It is possible to hedge benefits in oil spot and future markets. Furthermore, the coal-gasoline price relation as well as the coal-crude oil price relation has a weak link, and the existing bubbles influence the interactions between the oil and gasoline markets.
•Identify the beginnings and ends of bubbles in the energy price market.•It is possible to hedge benefits in oil spot and future markets.•The efficient market hypothesis has been the failure in most of the energy market.
This study applies bootstrap panel Granger causality to test the relationship between urbanization and the urban-rural income gap in China. We find that patterns of interaction between urbanization ...and the urban-rural income gap vary according to different regions. Empirical results show that urbanization does Granger-cause an urban-rural income gap, mainly in the Eastern region of China. In one-third of all provinces, the urbanization levels have a significant impact on the urban-rural income gap; however, the urban-rural income gap does not play a significant role in urbanization. The Eastern region's result is also in line with Kuznets's (1955) theory. These results could help regional governments develop fair policies for urban and rural income distribution in the process of urbanization of different regions.
•This research applies bootstrap panel Granger causality to test the relationship between urbanization and the urban-rural income gap in China.•The urbanization levels have a significant impact on the urban-rural income gap in one-third of all provinces.•The urban-rural income gap does not play a significant role in urbanization in China.
