Proliferation of evapotranspiration (ET) products warrants comparison of these products. The study objective was to assess uncertainty in ET output from four land surface models (LSMs), Noah, Mosaic, ...VIC, and SAC in NLDAS‐2, two remote sensing‐based products, MODIS and AVHRR, and GRACE‐inferred ET from a water budget with precipitation from PRISM, monitored runoff, and total water storage change (TWSC) from GRACE satellites. The three cornered hat method, which does not require a priori knowledge of the true ET value, was used to estimate ET uncertainties. In addition, TWSC or total water storage anomaly (TWSA) from GRACE was compared with water budget estimates of TWSC from a flux‐based approach or TWSA from a storage‐based approach. The analyses were conducted using data from three regions (humid‐arid) in the South Central United States as case studies. Uncertainties in ET are lowest in LSM ET (∼5 mm/mo), moderate in MODIS or AVHRR‐based ET (10–15 mm/mo), and highest in GRACE‐inferred ET (20–30 mm/month). There is a trade‐off between spatial resolution and uncertainty, with lower uncertainty in the coarser‐resolution LSM ET (∼14 km) relative to higher uncertainty in the finer‐resolution (∼1–8 km) RS ET. Root‐mean‐square (RMS) of uncertainties in water budget estimates of TWSC is about half of RMS of uncertainties in GRACE‐derived TWSC for each of the regions. Future ET estimation should consider a hybrid approach that integrates strengths of LSMs and satellite‐based products to constrain uncertainties.
Key Points
ET from LSMs, remote sensing and GRACE is evaluated
Water budget closure using a range of LSM and RS products is performed
Methods of driving TWSC from GRACE original TWSA are compared
•Observed and simulated spatio-temporal patterns of TWS variations are examined over global basins.•Human-induced terrestrial water storage (TWS) change is isolated using models and GRACE.Euphrates, ...Ganges, Brahmaputra, Volga, and Indus basins experienced large human-induced TWS loss.•Uncertainties arising from forcing data are comparable to differences between models and GRACE.
Hydrological models and the data derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission have been widely used to study the variations in terrestrial water storage (TWS) over large regions. However, both GRACE products and model results suffer from inherent uncertainties, calling for the need to make a combined use of GRACE and models to examine the variations in total TWS and their individual components, especially in relation to natural and human-induced changes in the terrestrial water cycle. In this study, we use the results from two state-of-the-art hydrological models and different GRACE spherical harmonic products to examine the variations in TWS and its individual components, and to attribute the changes to natural and human-induced factors over large global river basins. Analysis of the spatial patterns of the long-term trend in TWS from the two models and GRACE suggests that both models capture the GRACE-measured direction of change, but differ from GRACE as well as each other in terms of the magnitude over different regions. A detailed analysis of the seasonal cycle of TWS variations over 30 river basins shows notable differences not only between models and GRACE but also among different GRACE products and between the two models. Further, it is found that while one model performs well in highly-managed river basins, it fails to reproduce the GRACE-observed signal in snow-dominated regions, and vice versa. The isolation of natural and human-induced changes in TWS in some of the managed basins reveals a consistently declining TWS trend during 2002–2010, however; significant differences are again obvious both between GRACE and models and among different GRACE products and models. Results from the decomposition of the TWS signal into the general trend and seasonality indicate that both models do not adequately capture both the trend and seasonality in the managed or snow-dominated basins implying that the TWS variations from a single model cannot be reliably used for all global regions. It is also found that the uncertainties arising from climate forcing datasets can introduce significant additional uncertainties, making direct comparison of model results and GRACE products even more difficult. Our results highlight the need to further improve the representation of human land-water management and snow processes in large-scale models to enable a reliable use of models and GRACE to study the changes in freshwater systems in all global regions.
Recent developments in mascon (mass concentration) solutions for GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite data have significantly increased the spatial localization and amplitude of ...recovered terrestrial Total Water Storage anomalies (TWSA); however, land hydrology applications have been limited. Here we compare TWSA from April 2002 through March 2015 from (1) newly released GRACE mascons from the Center for Space Research (CSR‐M) with (2) NASA JPL mascons (JPL‐M), and with (3) CSR Tellus gridded spherical harmonics rescaled (sf) (CSRT‐GSH.sf) in 176 river basins, ∼60% of the global land area. Time series in TWSA mascons (CSR‐M and JPL‐M) and spherical harmonics are highly correlated (rank correlation coefficients mostly >0.9). The signal from long‐term trends (up to ±20 mm/yr) is much less than that from seasonal amplitudes (up to 250 mm). Net long‐term trends, summed over all 176 basins, are similar for CSR and JPL mascons (66–69 km3/yr) but are lower for spherical harmonics (∼14 km3/yr). Long‐term TWSA declines are found mostly in irrigated basins (−41 to −69 km3/yr). Seasonal amplitudes agree among GRACE solutions, increasing confidence in GRACE‐based seasonal fluctuations. Rescaling spherical harmonics significantly increases agreement with mascons for seasonal fluctuations, but less for long‐term trends. Mascons provide advantages relative to spherical harmonics, including (1) reduced leakage from land to ocean increasing signal amplitude, and (2) application of geophysical data constraints during processing with little empirical postprocessing requirements, making it easier for nongeodetic users. Results of this product intercomparison should allow hydrologists to better select suitable GRACE solutions for hydrologic applications.
Key Points
Performance of new GRACE mascons in 176 global basins is shown to be equivalent to or superior to traditional‐scaled spherical harmonics
Net long‐term trends from mascons summed over all basins agree (66–69 km3/yr) but are higher than spherical harmonics (14 km3/yr)
Net depletion in total water storage occurs mostly in irrigated basins, ranging from −41 to −69 km3/yr among different GRACE solutions
Aquifer overexploitation could significantly impact crop production in the United States because 60% of irrigation relies on groundwater. Groundwater depletion in the irrigated High Plains and ...California Central Valley accounts for ∼50% of groundwater depletion in the United States since 1900. A newly developed High Plains recharge map shows that high recharge in the northern High Plains results in sustainable pumpage, whereas lower recharge in the central and southern High Plains has resulted in focused depletion of 330 km ³ of fossil groundwater, mostly recharged during the past 13,000 y. Depletion is highly localized with about a third of depletion occurring in 4% of the High Plains land area. Extrapolation of the current depletion rate suggests that 35% of the southern High Plains will be unable to support irrigation within the next 30 y. Reducing irrigation withdrawals could extend the lifespan of the aquifer but would not result in sustainable management of this fossil groundwater. The Central Valley is a more dynamic, engineered system, with north/south diversions of surface water since the 1950s contributing to ∼7× higher recharge. However, these diversions are regulated because of impacts on endangered species. A newly developed Central Valley Hydrologic Model shows that groundwater depletion since the 1960s, totaling 80 km ³, occurs mostly in the south (Tulare Basin) and primarily during droughts. Increasing water storage through artificial recharge of excess surface water in aquifers by up to 3 km ³ shows promise for coping with droughts and improving sustainability of groundwater resources in the Central Valley.
Groundwater is a vital freshwater resource for both humans and ecosystems. Achieving sustainable management requires a detailed knowledge of the aquifer structure and of its behavior in response to ...climatic and anthropogenic forcing. Traditional monitoring is carried out using piezometer networks, and recently complemented with new geophysical or satellite-based observations. These techniques survey either local (small-scale) water systems or regional areas (large scale) but, to date, adequate observation tools are lacking at the water management scale (i.e. several tens of kms), which is generally explored by modeling. Using 30 years of continuous recording by four seismic stations of the Gräfenberg Array (Germany), we demonstrate that long-term observations of velocity variations (approximately 0.01%) of surface waves can be extracted from such recordings of ocean-generated seismic noise. These small variations can be explained by changes to mechanical properties of the complex aquifer system in the top few hundred meters of the crust. The velocity changes can be interpreted as effects of temperature diffusion and water storage changes. Seismic noise recordings may become a new and valuable tool to monitor heterogeneous groundwater systems at mesoscale, in addition to existing observation methods.
Assessing reliability of global models is critical because of increasing reliance on these models to address past and projected future climate and human stresses on global water resources. Here, we ...evaluate model reliability based on a comprehensive comparison of decadal trends (2002–2014) in land water storage from seven global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, GLDAS NOAH,MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to trends from three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions in 186 river basins (∼60% of global land area). Medians of modeled basin water storage trends greatly underestimate GRACE-derived large decreasing (≤−0.5 km³/y) and increasing (≥0.5 km³/y) trends. Decreasing trends from GRACE are mostly related to human use (irrigation) and climate variations, whereas increasing trends reflect climate variations. For example, in the Amazon, GRACE estimates a large increasing trend of ∼43 km³/y, whereas most models estimate decreasing trends (−71 to 11 km³/y). Land water storage trends, summed over all basins, are positive for GRACE (∼71–82 km³/y) but negative for models (−450 to −12 km³/y), contributing opposing trends to global mean sea level change. Impacts of climate forcing on decadal land water storage trends exceed those of modeled human intervention by about a factor of 2. The model-GRACE comparison highlights potential areas of future model development, particularly simulated water storage. The inability of models to capture large decadal water storage trends based on GRACE indicates that model projections of climate and humaninduced water storage changes may be underestimated.
The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites provide observations of water storage variation at regional scales. However, when focusing on a region of interest, limited spatial ...resolution and noise contamination can cause estimation bias and spatial leakage, problems that are exacerbated as the region of interest approaches the GRACE resolution limit of a few hundred km. Reliable estimates of water storage variations in small basins require compromises between competing needs for noise suppression and spatial resolution. The objective of this study was to quantitatively investigate processing methods and their impacts on bias, leakage, GRACE noise reduction, and estimated total error, allowing solution of the trade‐offs. Among the methods tested is a recently developed concentration algorithm called spatiospectral localization, which optimizes the basin shape description, taking into account limited spatial resolution. This method is particularly suited to retrieval of basin‐scale water storage variations and is effective for small basins. To increase confidence in derived methods, water storage variations were calculated for both CSR (Center for Space Research) and GRGS (Groupe de Recherche de Géodésie Spatiale) GRACE products, which employ different processing strategies. The processing techniques were tested on the intensively monitored High Plains Aquifer (450,000 km2 area), where application of the appropriate optimal processing method allowed retrieval of water storage variations over a portion of the aquifer as small as ∼200,000 km2.
Texas experienced the most extreme one‐year drought on record in 2011 with precipitation at 40% of long‐term mean and agricultural losses of ~$7.6 billion. We assess the value of Gravity Recovery and ...Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite‐derived total water storage (TWS) change as an alternative remote sensing‐based drought indicator, independent of traditional drought indicators based on in situ monitoring. GRACE shows depletion in TWS of 62.3 ± 17.7 km3 during the 2011 drought. Large uncertainties in simulated soil moisture storage depletion (14–83 km3) from six land surface models indicate that GRACE TWS is a more reliable drought indicator than disaggregated soil moisture or groundwater storage. Groundwater use and groundwater level data indicate that depletion is dominated by changes in soil moisture storage, consistent with high correlation between GRACE TWS and the Palmer Drought Severity Index. GRACE provides a valuable tool for monitoring statewide water storage depletion, linking meteorological and hydrological droughts.
Key Points
GRACE provides an excellent indicator of the impacts of the 2011 drought on TWS
The major contributor of TWS changes is SMS changes by comparing TWS with PDSI
GWS is a small fraction of TWS using ground‐based estimates of GWS changes
Recent acceleration of sand extraction for anthropic use threatens the sustainability of this major resource. However, continental erosion and river transport, which produce sand and sediment in ...general, lack quantification at the global scale. Here, we develop a new geodetic method to infer the sediment discharge to ocean of the world's largest rivers. It combines the spatial distribution of modern sedimentation zones with new high-resolution (~170 km) data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission launched in 2002. We obtain sediment discharges consistent with in situ measurements for the Amazon, Ganges-Brahmaputra, Changjiang, Indus, and Magdalena rivers. This new approach enables to quantitatively monitor the contemporary erosion of continental basins drained by rivers with large sediment discharges and paves the way toward a better understanding of how natural and anthropic changes influence landscape dynamics.
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