Following the updated global sulphur emission cap from 1 January 2020, shipowners are facing an increasing cost burden to comply with the new regulation in a tough shipping market. This research ...compares the lifespan costs of three main alternatives, all of which can satisfy the 2020 global sulphur emission regulation. A lifespan cost analysis model is built considering several cost items across the three alternatives, including the initial cost of investment, maintenance cost and fuel consumption cost. Two vessels with a capacity of 5000 and 10,000 TEUs are selected as case study vessels. The @risk software is utilized to conduct an uncertainty analysis with respect to the fuel price and the discount rate to test the three alternatives in different circumstances. The results indicate that the larger the vessel, the lower the discount rate, and the greater the price of Mixed Fuel Oil (a mixture of Very Low Sulphur Oil and Marine Gas Oil), the more attractive the scrubber option. Quantitatively, if the refining technology of low-sulphur fuel improves in the future and the price differential between Mixed Fuel Oil and Heavy Sulphur Fuel Oil decreases to $29 per ton for the 5000 TEU vessel or $27 per ton for the 10,000 TEU vessel, the fuel-switch alternative will be as competitive as the use of a scrubber in terms of the lifespan cost. Additionally, as the discount rate increases, the cost gap between the use of a scrubber and the other two alternatives gradually decreases.
Countries located on the Black Sea coast perform most of their sea trade through the Istanbul Strait (IS). Approximately 50,000 ships pass through the IS each year, with crude oil tankers making up ...the majority. Thus, the aim of the study is to determine the acute toxic effect of oil pollution that may occur as a result of crude oil tanker accidents in the IS. By utilising data related to accidents that have occurred in the IS, locations of concentrated tanker accidents, or “hot spots,” were determined by Kernel Density Analysis. Subsequently, the distribution of potential leaks following an oil tanker accident, within these hot spots, is modelled with GNOME software. Finally, acute toxicity caused by oil pollution in the marine ecosystem is determined by
Aliivibrio fischeri
luminescent bacteria toxicity test. In this research, 5 hot spots are identified, where the maximum calculated amount of oil that can reach the coastline after 72 h is 3096 metric tons. Similarly, oil pollution can affect a total coastline of 30–35 km. Furthermore, it was determined that after the oil was diluted in seawater, at a ratio of 1:200,000, the toxic effects decrease (EC
50
above 100 mg/L), yet the chronic effects may still continue. The results of this study may serve as a reference for coastal state authorities to develop emergency response plans. Having this valuable knowledge of where high-risk accidents are most concentrated, where the accidents occur intensely, which areas can be affected by the pollution, the duration of the pollution effects, and the distance between the areas, will help determine the number of intervention stations to be installed, their locations, and equipment to be installed to the stations.
Graphical abstract
Given the in-depth advancement of the “Belt and Road” initiative, cooperation among countries along the initiative is increasing. The strategic maritime transport passage is closely related to the ...interests of relevant countries. The games between countries along important transport passages in terms of the pursuit of geopolitical rights and interests occur frequently. This paper establishes an evolutionary game model of the strategic maritime transport passages taking the Strait of Hormuz as an example and explores the game of the countries on both sides of the strait. By analysing their behaviour and possible strategies, the evolutionary stable strategy for each country is obtained. Recommendations are made to aid with the relevant rights and interests of related countries.
Narrow waterways are important connection hubs, also known as logistics transfer nodes, within maritime transport, where maritime traffic can become very dense and congested. Heavy traffic, ...unsuitable environmental conditions and human errors make narrow waterways risky areas for marine accident occurrence. Accidents in narrow waterways cause ship damage, loss of cargo, loss of life and environmental disasters, as well as interruption of maritime transport and negative impact on the economy. Thus, the sustainability of navigational safety in narrow waterways has been the focus of attention of all beneficiaries in the maritime industry. The Singapore Strait is one of the busiest narrow waterways in the world in terms of the number of ships transiting. Sustaining and safe maritime transport in the Singapore Strait is significantly important for the sustainability of the global trade. Therefore, it is vitally important to appropriately identify the threats to safety of navigation in the Singapore Strait. In this study, the operational conditions that have played a role in the occurrence of accidents in the Singapore Strait are examined. For this purpose, using the Geographical Information System (GIS), the areas where marine accidents are concentrated were determined by the Kernel Density Analysis method and a “Marine Accidents Density Map” was created for the Singapore Strait. The relationship between the dense areas in the marine accidents density map and the operational conditions that play a role in the accidents in the Singapore Strait were examined using the Chi-Square Test and expert opinions. The results of the study indicate that if there is a condition (e.g., turning, joining to the traffic stream, or failure in propulsion/steering systems) that directly or indirectly disturbs the normal flow of traffic in the Singapore Strait, the risk of having an accident increases. The results of this study can be used to determine the measures to be taken for the prevention of possible accidents, as well as to help manage the risks associated with the ships that pass through the region.
•In this study, the feasibility of the modified Human Factor Analysis and Classification System for Passenger Vessel collisions (HFACS-PV) is demonstrated for other types of accidents.•The HFACS-PV ...structure makes it possible to evaluate the occurrence of marine accidents and to analyse the contributions of human error.•The results of this study show that the HFACS-PV structure is compatible with contact, grounding and sinking accidents as well as collisions.•The main feature that distinguishes HFACS-PV from other HFACS structures is that it examines the internal and external environmental factors as a separate level under the name “Operational Conditions”
Shipping is one of the leading modes of transport that has dominated the world economy from past to present. The effectiveness and efficiency of maritime trade is closely related to maritime safety. Providing quality maritime safety is a fundamental requirement for environmentally friendly, sustainable, safe and efficient global trade. Therefore, maritime safety and human factors are frequently studied topics in literature. However, the fact that the human element has a complex socio-technical structure makes it difficult to fully analyse human factors in accidents. That is one of the biggest challenges in preventing and mitigating accidents. This research aims to demonstrate the feasibility of the modified Human Factor Analysis and Classification System for Passenger Vessel collisions (HFACS-PV) for other types of accidents. 51 grounding accidents that occurred in passenger vessels between 1991 and 2017 were analysed by using the HFACS-PV structure. The results show that the HFACS-PV structure created for passenger vessel accidents is compatible with contact, grounding and sinking accidents as well as collisions. Thus, the HFACS-PV structure allows for coherent analysis of marine accidents. Owing to the flexibility of HFACS, it is also possible to combine it with other analytical methods to conduct both qualitative and quantitative analysis.
•A traffic partition framework to incorporate conflict and distance relations.•A novel hybrid clustering approach to achieve robust traffic partition.•A hierarchical optimization algorithm to search ...for optimal clustering solutions.•Effective and reliable performance in capturing high-risk ship traffic clusters.
Maritime traffic situational awareness is fundamental to the safety of maritime transportation. The state-of-the-art research primarily attaches importance to collision risk estimation and evaluation between/among ships but encounters the challenges of capturing the high-risk traffic clusters in complex waters. This paper develops a systematic traffic clustering approach to enhance traffic pattern interpretability and proactively discover high-risk multi-ship encounter scenarios, in which both the conflict connectivity and spatial compactness of encounter ships are considered. Specifically, a novel hybrid clustering approach that integrates a composite distance measure, a constrained Shared Nearest Neighbour clustering, and a fine-tuning strategy is developed to segment maritime traffic into multiple conflict-connected and spatially compact clusters. Meanwhile, a hierarchical bi-objective optimization algorithm is introduced to search for optimal clustering solutions. Through maritime traffic data obtained from the Ningbo-Zhoushan Port, a thorough methodology performance evaluation is carried out through application demonstration and validation. Experiment results reveal that the new approach: 1) can effectively capture the high-risk/density traffic clusters; 2) is robust with respect to various traffic scenarios; and 3) can be extended to assist in collision risk management. It therefore offers new insights into enhancing maritime traffic surveillance capabilities and eases the design of risk management strategy.
In compliance with the progress of the Belt and Road (B&R) initiative, there exists a notable and continuous increase in the reliance on maritime and onshore transportation. Therefore, unimpeded ...transportation has become China's goal to ensure its security of trade and energy resources. This study proposes a useful framework for the quantitative assessment of key Strategic Transport Passages (STPs) to identify and rank China's STPs in the context of the B&R. An evaluation hierarchy consisting of general criteria and sub-criteria is developed to evaluate the strategic value of alternative passages. The Evidential Reasoning method is employed to carry out the synthesis process with the Intelligent Decision System software package as it is effective when combining both qualitative and quantitative criteria of a complex nature. Finally, China's top ten STPs and their ranking are determined by their associated strategic values. The Strait of Hormuz ranks first followed by the Strait of Malacca. Alashankou, located in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, China, is the only onshore passage among the top ten STPs. Though the Panama Canal is not involved with the B&R, it is still within the top ten STPs, due to its economic significance.
With the continuous growth of international trade and the number of ships, the pressure on marine safety is increasing. To strengthen the efficiency and pertinence of accident prevention and control ...measures, in-depth research on the characteristics of marine traffic accidents is of great significance. This study uses a Weighted Association Rule Mining (WARM) approach to investigate the association between marine traffic accidents characteristics. The Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea play a crucial role in global maritime transportation. The marine traffic accidents in the Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea region from 2006 to 2020 are collected from the Lloyd's List Intelligence (LLI) database. Then, WARM is applied to obtain the characteristics of marine traffic accidents. The findings show that Flag of Convenience (FOC) vessels in the Mediterranean have a lower accident rate than non-FOC vessels do. Moreover, the results reveal a strong relationship between accidents and the age, gross tonnage, and ship type. Older general cargo ships with a gross tonnage between 500 and 3000 tons are more prone to accidents. This research provides insights for authorities to develop targeted measures for preventing specific types of accidents and enhancing marine safety.
•In this study, the main objective was to investigate maritime accident characteristics and improve navigation safety.•It is fully considered that in the association rule approach, different accidents may have their own weights.•The weighted association rule approach is employed to mine the causal characteristics of ship traffic accidents.•The results of the study reveal a strong relationship between the age, gross tonnage, and ship type of the accidents.
•A new method to identify hazards and quantify the associated risks of HEPS.•A new cruise ship evacuation risk assessment model combining FMEA, BBN, ER approaches holistically.•New investigation on ...the incorporation of a HSEO framework into the risk assessment of HEPS.•Real case study and analysis of a large-scale evacuation drill of a cruise ship.
In maritime transport, evacuation, escape and rescue play a crucial role in protecting people's lives when a passenger ship is involved in a serious accident. The study aims to develop a new method to identify hazards, quantify and rank the associated risks in the process of Human Evacuation from Passenger Ships (HEPS). Firstly, based on extensive literature review and marine accident investigation reports, the risk factors affecting passenger ship evacuation were analysed and identified, and an analysis framework based on Human, Ship, Environment and Organization (HSEO) for HEPS was proposed. Secondly, a risk assessment model was proposed to quantify and rank risk factors in the process of HEPS. Finally, a large-scale evacuation drill of a cruise ship was taken as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed evaluation model, and accuracy of the results. The results reveal that (1) evacuation decision, operation of Life-Saving Appliances (LSAs) are the main risks affecting the safety of HEPS; (2) the behaviours of passengers have a relatively lower risk priority; and (3) future HEPS research should focus on the development of a multi-attribute decision system to address the issue on when to evacuate and when to abandon a ship.
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