The United States has two measures of economic output: gross domestic product (GDP) and gross domestic income (GDI). While these are conceptually equivalent, their initial estimates differ because ...these initial estimates are computed from different and incomplete data sources. I study the difference, or “statistical discrepancy,” between GDP and GDI in percent and document three features. First, its size does not materially shrink on average as more data become available. Second, the size of the initial discrepancy in absolute value does not predict the size of the discrepancy in absolute value after revisions. Third, the initial discrepancy has some predictive information about revisions to lagged GDP growth but no predictive information about revisions to lagged GDI growth.
We present an archival search for transient gravitational-wave bursts in coincidence with 27 single-pulse triggers from Green Bank Telescope pulsar surveys, using the LIGO, Virgo, and GEO ...interferometer network. We also discuss a check for gravitational-wave signals in coincidence with Parkes fast radio bursts using similar methods. Data analyzed in these searches were collected between 2007 and 2013. Possible sources of emission of both short-duration radio signals and transient gravitational-wave emission include starquakes on neutron stars, binary coalescence of neutron stars, and cosmic string cusps. While no evidence for gravitational-wave emission in coincidence with these radio transients was found, the current analysis serves as a prototype for similar future searches using more sensitive second-generation interferometers.
This article focuses on the challenges faced by faculty members in a consortium of 13 Liberal Arts Colleges (LACs). We present findings, by academic rank, from a mixed-methods study of faculty ...development needs and experiences within the consortium. Relying on human resource principles, we advocate a greater focus on the development of the person, rather than task-specific skill improvement, as a means of creating faculty development programming that is particularly tailored to the rank-based needs of faculty members. We offer recommendations to achieve this focus amidst the unique faculty development challenges and opportunities available at LACs.
Using an alignment framework, the authors explore faculty development initiatives in liberal arts colleges in order to understand the connection between organizational priorities and processes as ...connected to faculty members' stated needs. The study draws on mixed-methods data from The Initiative for Faculty Development in Liberal Arts Colleges (IFDLAC), including survey and interview data from the 13 member institutions of the Great Lakes Colleges Association (GLCA).The authors offer future implications for faculty development practice.
The unemployment rate in the United States falls slowly in expansions, and it may not reach its previous low point before the next recession begins. Based on this feature, I document that the ...frequent recessions prior to 1983 are associated with an upward trend in the unemployment rate. In contrast, the long expansions beginning in 1983 are associated with a downward trend. I then estimate a two-variable vector autoregression (VAR) that includes the unemployment rate and a recession indicator. Long-horizon forecasts from this VAR conditioned on no future recessions project that the unemployment rate will go to 3.6 percent after a long period with no recessions.
Communication by the Federal Reserve is important for the conduct of monetary policy. We study how one form of Federal Reserve communication, the congressional testimony by the Chair of the Board of ...Governors (the Fed Chair), affects interest rates on 2-year and 10-year Treasury Notes. We study three types of Fed Chair testimony: the first day of Monetary Policy Report testimony, the second day of Monetary Policy Report testimony, and testimonies not associated with the Monetary Policy Report but that still relate to monetary policy. We find that the average size of interest rate changes is largest around first-day Monetary Policy Report testimonies and smallest around second-day Monetary Policy Report testimonies. We also document that the sizes of interest rate changes can vary over time and often correspond to the level of the federal funds rate.
The underemployment rate, the percent of employed people who are working part-time but prefer to be working full- time, moves closely with the unemployment rate, rising during recessions and falling ...during expansions. Following the Great Recession, the underemployment rate had stayed persistently elevated when compared to the unemployment rate, that is, until the COVID-19 recession. Since then, it has been consistent with its pre-2008 levels. We find that changes in relative industry size account for essentially none of the underemployment rate increase after the Great Recession nor the underemployment rate decrease after the COVID-19 recession. Based on this finding, we do not expect the underemployment rate to revert to its pre-COVID-19 levels if industry composition reverts to its pre-COVID-19 structure.
An inverted Treasury yield curve—a yield curve where short-term Treasury interest rates are higher than long-term Treasury interest rates—is a good predictor of recessions. Because of this, ...economists and policymakers often assess the risk of a yield curve inversion when the yield curve is flattening. I study the forecastability of yield curve inversions. Professional forecasters did not predict the beginning of the yield curve inversions prior to the 1990–1991, 2001, and 2008–2009 recessions. In all three cases, professional forecasters failed to predict the magnitude of the rise in short-term interest rates. Prior to the 2008–2009 recession, forecasters also overpredicted long-term interest rates.
Despite the unemployment rate's return to low levels, inflation-adjusted or "real" interest rates have remained negative. One popular explanation for persistently negative real interest rates is that ...long-run productivity growth has slowed. I study the long-run relationship between real interest rates and productivity growth from 1914 to 2016 and find a negative correlation between these two variables. Hence, low productivity growth has been historically associated with high real interest rates. Since World War II, the correlation between these variables has been near zero. This suggests that slow long-run productivity growth is not driving real interest rates to be persistently negative.
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