The production of flood hazard assessment maps is an important component of flood risk assessment. This study analyses flood hazard using flood mark data. The chosen case study is the 2013 flood ...event in Quang Nam, Vietnam. The impacts of this event included 17 deaths, 230 injuries, 91,739 flooded properties, 11,530 ha of submerged and damaged agricultural land, 85,080 animals killed and widespread damage to roads, canals, dykes and embankments. The flood mark data include flood depth and flood duration. Analytic hierarchy process method is used to assess the criteria and sub-criteria of the flood hazard. The weights of criteria and sub-criteria are generated based on the judgements of decision-makers using this method. This assessment is combined into a single map using weighted linear combination, integrated with GIS to produce a flood hazard map. Previous research has usually not considered flood duration in flood hazard assessment maps. This factor has a rather strong influence on the livelihood of local communities in Quang Nam, with most agricultural land within the floodplain. A more comprehensive flood hazard assessment mapping process, with the additional consideration of flood duration, can make a significant contribution to flood risk management activities in Vietnam.
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•A new robustness deep learning model, DEBP, was developed for flood susceptibility mapping.•The IGR feature selection was applied to determine the most important flood conditioning ...factors.•The proposed model was optimized by PSO to enhance the goodness-of-fit and prediction accuracy.•The DEBP model outperformed the ANNRBF, LR, LMTree, FTree, and ADTree machine learning algorithms.•The new proposed model was offered as a promising and trustworthy tool for flood mitigation.
This paper introduces a new deep-learning algorithm of deep belief network (DBN) based on an extreme learning machine (ELM) that is structured by back propagation (BN) and optimized by particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, named DEBP, for flood susceptibility mapping in the Vu Gia-Thu Bon watershed, central Vietnam. We use 847 locations of floods that occurred in 2007, 2009, and 2013 and 16 flood conditioning factors evaluated by an information gain ratio (IGR) technique to construct and validate the proposed model. Statistical metrics, including sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, F1-measure, Jaccard coefficient, Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC), root mean square error (RMSE), and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), are used to assess the goodness-of-fit/performance and prediction accuracy of the new deep learning model. We further compare the proposed model with several well-known machine learning algorithms, including artificial neural network-based radial base function (ANNRBF), logistic regression (LR), logistic model tree (LMTree), functional tree (FTree), and alternating decision tree (ADTree). The new proposed model, DEBP, has the highest goodness-of-fit (AUC = 0.970) and prediction accuracy (AUC = 0.967) of all of the tested models and thus shows promise as a tool for flood susceptibility modeling. We conclude that novel deep learning algorithms such as the one used in this study can improve the accuracy of flood susceptibility maps that are required by planners, decision makers, and government agencies to manage of areas vulnerable to flood-induced damage.
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•Developing a deep learning neural network models for spatial prediction of landslides.•Comparing deep learning to three state-of-the-art classification techniques.•Highest ...reliability of mapping of landslides using the spatially explicit deep learning.•Proving AUC = 0.89 for landslide prediction using the deep learning model.
With the increasing threat of recurring landslides, susceptibility maps are expected to play a bigger role in promoting our understanding of future landslides and their magnitude. This study describes the development and validation of a spatially explicit deep learning (DL) neural network model for the prediction of landslide susceptibility. A geospatial database was generated based on 217 landslide events from the Muong Lay district (Vietnam), for which a suite of nine landslide conditioning factors was derived. The Relief-F feature selection method was employed to quantify the utility of the conditioning factors for developing the landslide predictive model. Several performance metrics demonstrated that the DL model performed well both in terms of the goodness-of-fit with the training dataset (AUC = 0.90; accuracy = 82%; RMSE = 0.36) and the ability to predict future landslides (AUC = 0.89; accuracy = 82%; RMSE = 0.38). The efficiency of the model was compared to the quadratic discriminant analysis, Fisher's linear discriminant analysis, and multi-layer perceptron neural network. A comparative analysis using the Wilcoxon signed-rank tests revealed a significant improvement of landslide prediction using the spatially explicit DL model over these other models. The insights provided from this study will be valuable for further development of landslide predictive models and spatially explicit assessment of landslide-prone regions around the world.
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•Machine learning integrated with multi-criteria decision analysis for flood risk assessment.•Flood risk framework includes flood susceptibility and consequence indicators.•Results of ...this study helps government and agencies to minimize damages caused by floods.
Flood risk assessment is an important task for disaster management activities in flood-prone areas. Therefore, it is crucial to develop accurate flood risk assessment maps. In this study, we proposed a flood risk assessment framework which combines flood susceptibility assessment and flood consequences (human health and financial impact) for developing a final flood risk assessment map using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method. Two hybrid Artificial Intelligence (AI) models, namely ABMDT (AdaBoost-DT) and BDT (Bagging-DT) were developed with Decision Table (DT) as a base classifier for creating a flood susceptibility map. We used 847 flood locations of major flooding events in the years 2007, 2009 and 2013 in Quang Nam province of Vietnam; and 14 flood influencing factors of topography, geology, hydrology and environment to construct and validate the hybrid AI models. Various statistical measures were used to validate the models, including the Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve called AUC. Results show that all the proposed models performed well, but the performance of the BDT model (AUC = 0.96) is the best in comparison to other models ABMDT (AUC = 0.953) and single DT (AUC = 0.929). Therefore, the flood susceptibility map produced by the BDT model was used to combine with a flood consequences map to develop a reliable flood risk assessment map for the study area. The final flood risk map can provide a useful source for better flood hazard management of the study area, and the proposed framework and models can be applied to other flood-prone areas.
Vietnam’s central coastal region is the most vulnerable and always at flood risk, severely affecting people’s livelihoods and socio-economic development. In particular, Quang Binh province is often ...affected by floods and storms over the year. However, it still lacks studies on flood hazard estimation and prediction tools in this area. This study aims to develop a flooding susceptibility assessment tool using various machine learning (ML) techniques namely alternating decision tree (AD Tree), logistic model tree (LM Tree), reduced-error pruning tree (REP Tree), J48 decision tree (J48) and Naïve Bayes tree (NB Tree); historical flood marks; and available data of topography, hydrology, geology, and environment considering Quang Binh province as a study area. We used flood mark locations of major flooding events in the years 2007, 2010, and 2016; and ten flood conditioning factors to construct and validate the ML models. Various validation methods, including area under the ROC curve (AUC), were used to validate and compare the models. The result of the models’ validation suggests that all models have good performance: AD Tree (AUC = 0.968), LM Tree (AUC = 0.967), REP Tree (AUC = 0.897), J48 (AUC = 0.953), and NB Tree (AUC = 0.986). Out of these, NB Tree managed to achieve the best performance in terms of flood prediction with an accuracy higher than 92 %. The final flood susceptibility map highlights 6,265 km
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(78.8 % area) with a very low flooding hazard, 391 km
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(4.9 % area) with a low flooding hazard, 224 km
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(2.8 % area) with a moderate flooding hazard, 243 km
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(3.1 %) with a high flooding hazard, and 829 km
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(10.4 % area) with very high flooding hazard. The final flooding susceptibility assessment map could add a valuable source for flood risk reduction and management activities of Quang Binh province.
Water deficiency due to climate change and the world's population growth increases the demand for the water industry to carry out vulnerability assessments. Although many studies have been done on ...climate change vulnerability assessment, a specific framework with sufficient indicators for water vulnerability assessment is still lacking. This highlights the urgent need to devise an effective model framework in order to provide water managers and authorities with the level of water exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity and water vulnerability to formulate their responses in implementing water management strategies. The present study proposes a new approach for water quantity vulnerability assessment based on remote sensing satellite data and GIS ModelBuilder. The developed approach has three layers: (1) data acquisition mainly from remote sensing datasets and statistical sources; (2) calculation layer based on the integration of GIS-based model and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's vulnerability assessment framework; and (3) output layer including the indices of exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity and water vulnerability and spatial distribution of remote sensing indicators and these indices in provincial and regional scale. In total 27 indicators were incorporated for the case study in Vietnam based on their availability and reliability. Results show that the most water vulnerable is the South Central Coast of the country, followed by the Northwest area. The novel approach is based on reliable and updated spatial-temporal datasets (soil water stress, aridity index, water use efficiency, rain use efficiency and leaf area index), and the incorporation of the GIS-based model. This framework can then be applied effectively for water vulnerability assessment of other regions and countries.
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•The study developed a new framework to quantify water quantity vulnerability.•The reliable satellite datasets were acquired for the assessment.•Spatial distribution of vulnerability indices were constructed.•The study illustrates vulnerable hotspots for site selection of water practices.•Future water vulnerability prediction should be considered.
Flash flood is one of the most common natural hazards affecting many mountainous areas. Previous studies explored flash flood susceptibility models; however, there is still a lack of case studies in ...the transport sector. This paper aimed to develop advanced hybrid machine learning (ML) algorithms for flash flood susceptibility modeling and mapping using data from the road network National Highway 6 in Hoa Binh province, Vietnam. A single ML model of reduced error pruning trees (REPT) and four hybrid ML models of Decorate-REPT, AdaBoostM1-REPT, Bagging-REPT, and MultiBoostAB-REPT were applied to develop flash flood susceptibility maps. Field surveys were conducted about the flash flood locations on the 115-km route length of the National Highway 6 in 2017, 2018, and 2019 flood events. This study used 88 flash flood locations and 14 flood conditioning factors to construct and validate the proposed models. Statistical metrics, including sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, root mean square error, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, were applied to evaluate the models’ performance and accuracy. The DCREPT model showed the best performance (AUC = 0.988) among the training models and had the highest prediction accuracy (AUC = 0.991) among the testing models. We found that 12,572 ha (Decorate-REPT), 9564 ha (AdaBoostM1-REPT), 11,954 ha (Bagging-REPT), 14,432 ha (MultiBoostAB-REPT), and 17,660 ha (REPT) of the 3-km buffer area of the highway are in the high- and very high-flash-flood-susceptibility areas. The proposed methodology could be potentially generalized to other transportation routes in mountainous areas to generate flash flood susceptibility prediction maps.
•Flood susceptibility modeling was done using hybrid machine learning approaches.•OneR method was used for feature selection.•Models performance was evaluated using standard statistical measures ...including AUC-ROC.•Developed models achieved a high flood susceptibility prediction accuracy.•RSSPART was the best machine learning model.
Recently, floods are occurring more frequently every year around the world due to increased anthropogenic activities and climate change. There is a need to develop accurate models for flood susceptibility prediction and mapping, which can be helpful in developing more efficient flood management plans. In this study, the Partial Decision Tree (PART) classifier and the AdaBoost, Bagging, Dagging, and Random Subspace ensembles learning techniques were combined to develop novel GIS-based ensemble computational models (ABPART, BPART, DPART and RSSPART) for flood susceptibility mapping in the Quang Binh Province, Vietnam. In total, 351 flood locations were used in the model study. This data was divided into a 70:30 ratio for model training (70% ≅ 255 locations) and (30% ≅ 96 locations) for model validation. Ten flood influencing factors, namely elevation, slope, curvature, flow direction, flow accumulation, river density, distance from river, rainfall, land-use, and geology, were used for the development of models. The OneR feature selection method was used to select and prioritize important factors for the spatial modeling. The results revealed that land-use, geology, and slope are the most important conditioning factors in the occurrence of floods in the study area. Standard statistical methods, including the ROC curve (AUC), were used for the performance evaluation of models. Results indicated that the performance of all models was good (AUC > 0.9) and RSSPART (AUC = 0.959) outperformed the others. Thus, the RSSPART model can be used for accurately predicting and mapping flood susceptibility.
In this study, a new approach of machine learning (ML) models integrated with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method was proposed to develop a holistic flood risk assessment map. Flood ...susceptibility maps were created using ML techniques. AHP was utilized to combine flood vulnerability and exposure criteria. We selected Quang Binh province of Vietnam as a case study and collected available data, including 696 flooding locations of historical flooding events in 2007, 2010, 2016, and 2020; and flood influencing factors of elevation, slope, curvature, flow direction, flow accumulation, distance from river, river density, land cover, geology, and rainfall. These data were used to construct training and testing datasets. The susceptibility models were validated and compared using statistical techniques. An integrated flood risk assessment framework was proposed to incorporate flood hazard (flood susceptibility), flood exposure (distance from river, land use, population density, and rainfall), and flood vulnerability (poverty rate, number of freshwater stations, road density, number of schools, and healthcare facilities). Model validation suggested that deep learning has the best performance of AUC = 0.984 compared with other ensemble models of MultiBoostAB Ensemble (0.958), Random SubSpace Ensemble (0.962), and credal decision tree (AUC = 0.918). The final flood risk map shows 5075 ha (0.63%) in extremely high risk, 47,955 ha (5.95%) in high‐risk, 40,460 ha (5.02%) in medium risk, 431,908 ha (53.55%) in low risk areas, and 281,127 ha (34.86%) in very low risk. The present study highlights that the integration of ML models and AHP is a promising framework for mapping flood risks in flood‐prone areas.
Vietnam is highly vulnerable to flood and storm impacts. Holistic flood risk assessment maps that adequately consider flood risk factors of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability are not available. ...These are vital for flood risk preparedness and disaster mitigation measures at the local scale. Unfortunately, there is a lack of knowledge about spatial multicriteria decision analysis and flood risk analysis more broadly in Vietnam. In response to this need, we identify and quantify flood risk components in Quang Nam province through spatial multicriteria decision analysis. The study presents a new approach to local flood risk assessment mapping, which combines historical flood marks with exposure and vulnerability data. The flood risk map output could assist and empower decision-makers in undertaking flood risk management activities in the province. Our study demonstrates a methodology to build flood risk assessment maps using flood mark, exposure and vulnerability data, which could be applied in other provinces in Vietnam.
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