The goal that the international community has set itself is to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the short/medium-term, especially in Europe that committed itself to reducing GHG emissions to ...80–95% below 1990 levels by 2050. Renewable energies play a fundamental role in achieving this objective. In this context, the policies of the main industrialized countries of the world are being oriented towards increasing the shares of electricity produced from renewable energy sources (RES).
In recent years, the production of renewable energy has increased considerably, but given the availability of these sources, there is a mismatch between production and demand. This raises some issues as balancing the electricity grid and, in particular, the use of surplus energy, as well as the need to strengthen the electricity network.
Among the various new solutions that are being evaluated, there are: the accumulation in batteries, the use of compressed air energy storage (CAES) and the production of hydrogen that appears to be the most suitable to associate with the water storage (pumped hydro). Concerning hydrogen, a recent study highlights that the efficiencies of hydrogen storage technologies are lower compared to advanced lead acid batteries on a DC-to-DC basis, but “in contrast … the cost of hydrogen storage is competitive with batteries and could be competitive with CAES and pumped hydro in locations that are not favourable for these technologies” (Moliner et al., 2016) 1.
This shows that, once the optimal efficiency rate is reached, the technologies concerning the production of hydrogen from renewable sources will be a viable and competitive solution. But, what will be the impact on the energy and fuel markets? The production of hydrogen through electrolysis will certainly have an important economic impact, especially in the transport sector, leading to the creation of a new market and a new supply chain that will change the physiognomy of the entire energy market.
Display omitted
•Production of hydrogen from RES to speed up the transition to “hydrogen economy”.•Electrolysis to store the surplus of power generation and balance the grid.•Hydrogen from RES as a feedstock for some industrial applications.•The changes in the current energy market paradigms.
Display omitted
► Forecast of world fossil fuel production. ► A variant of multi-cyclic Hubbert approach is proposed. ► Peak productions of oil, natural gas, and coal are calculated. ► Estimated peak ...years: 2009–2021 for oil, 2024–2046 for gas, 2042–2062 for coal. ► Comparison with other approaches and with literature estimates.
In this paper, a predictive model based on a variant of the multi-cyclic Hubbert approach is applied to forecast future trend in world fossil fuel production.
Starting from historical data on oil (crude and NGL), natural gas, and coal production, and taking into consideration three possible scenarios for the global Ultimate (i.e. cumulative production plus remaining reserves plus undiscovered resources), this approach allowed us to determine when these important energy sources should peak and start to decline. In particular, considering the most likely scenarios, our estimated peak values were: 30Gb/year in 2015 for oil, 132Tcf/year in 2035 for natural gas, and 4.5Gtoe/year in 2052 for coal. A plateau is likely to occur in the case of natural gas, if the global Ultimate is high.
A comparison of the Multi-Hubbert Variant (MHV) approach used in this paper with both the Single-cycle Hubbert (SH) and the “original” Multi-cyclic Hubbert (MH) approach has also been done.
Planck 2018 results Aghanim, N.; Akrami, Y.; Aumont, J. ...
Astronomy and astrophysics (Berlin),
09/2020, Letnik:
641
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
We present measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing potential using the final
Planck
2018 temperature and polarization data. Using polarization maps filtered to account for the ...noise anisotropy, we increase the significance of the detection of lensing in the polarization maps from 5
σ
to 9
σ
. Combined with temperature, lensing is detected at 40
σ
. We present an extensive set of tests of the robustness of the lensing-potential power spectrum, and construct a minimum-variance estimator likelihood over lensing multipoles 8 ≤
L
≤ 400 (extending the range to lower
L
compared to 2015), which we use to constrain cosmological parameters. We find good consistency between lensing constraints and the results from the
Planck
CMB power spectra within the ΛCDM model. Combined with baryon density and other weak priors, the lensing analysis alone constrains
σ
8
Ω
m
0.25
= 0.589 ± 0.020 (1
σ
errors). Also combining with baryon acoustic oscillation data, we find tight individual parameter constraints,
σ
8
= 0.811 ± 0.019,
H
0
= 67.9
−1.3
+1.2
km s
−1
Mpc
−1
, and Ω
m
= 0.303
−0.018
+0.016
. Combining with
Planck
CMB power spectrum data, we measure
σ
8
to better than 1% precision, finding
σ
8
= 0.811 ± 0.006. CMB lensing reconstruction data are complementary to galaxy lensing data at lower redshift, having a different degeneracy direction in
σ
8
− Ω
m
space; we find consistency with the lensing results from the Dark Energy Survey, and give combined lensing-only parameter constraints that are tighter than joint results using galaxy clustering. Using the
Planck
cosmic infrared background (CIB) maps as an additional tracer of high-redshift matter, we make a combined
Planck
-only estimate of the lensing potential over 60% of the sky with considerably more small-scale signal. We additionally demonstrate delensing of the
Planck
power spectra using the joint and individual lensing potential estimates, detecting a maximum removal of 40% of the lensing-induced power in all spectra. The improvement in the sharpening of the acoustic peaks by including both CIB and the quadratic lensing reconstruction is detected at high significance.
Planck 2018 results Aghanim, N.; Akrami, Y.; Aumont, J. ...
Astronomy and astrophysics (Berlin),
09/2020, Letnik:
641
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
We describe the legacy
Planck
cosmic microwave background (CMB) likelihoods derived from the 2018 data release. The overall approach is similar in spirit to the one retained for the 2013 and 2015 ...data release, with a hybrid method using different approximations at low (
ℓ
< 30) and high (
ℓ
≥ 30) multipoles, implementing several methodological and data-analysis refinements compared to previous releases. With more realistic simulations, and better correction and modelling of systematic effects, we can now make full use of the CMB polarization observed in the High Frequency Instrument (HFI) channels. The low-multipole
EE
cross-spectra from the 100 GHz and 143 GHz data give a constraint on the ΛCDM reionization optical-depth parameter
τ
to better than 15% (in combination with the
TT
low-
ℓ
data and the high-
ℓ
temperature and polarization data), tightening constraints on all parameters with posterior distributions correlated with
τ
. We also update the weaker constraint on
τ
from the joint TEB likelihood using the Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) channels, which was used in 2015 as part of our baseline analysis. At higher multipoles, the CMB temperature spectrum and likelihood are very similar to previous releases. A better model of the temperature-to-polarization leakage and corrections for the effective calibrations of the polarization channels (i.e., the polarization efficiencies) allow us to make full use of polarization spectra, improving the ΛCDM constraints on the parameters
θ
MC
,
ω
c
,
ω
b
, and
H
0
by more than 30%, and n
s
by more than 20% compared to TT-only constraints. Extensive tests on the robustness of the modelling of the polarization data demonstrate good consistency, with some residual modelling uncertainties. At high multipoles, we are now limited mainly by the accuracy of the polarization efficiency modelling. Using our various tests, simulations, and comparison between different high-multipole likelihood implementations, we estimate the consistency of the results to be better than the 0.5
σ
level on the ΛCDM parameters, as well as classical single-parameter extensions for the joint likelihood (to be compared to the 0.3
σ
levels we achieved in 2015 for the temperature data alone on ΛCDM only). Minor curiosities already present in the previous releases remain, such as the differences between the best-fit ΛCDM parameters for the
ℓ
< 800 and
ℓ
> 800 ranges of the power spectrum, or the preference for more smoothing of the power-spectrum peaks than predicted in ΛCDM fits. These are shown to be driven by the temperature power spectrum and are not significantly modified by the inclusion of the polarization data. Overall, the legacy
Planck
CMB likelihoods provide a robust tool for constraining the cosmological model and represent a reference for future CMB observations.
Planck 2018 results Akrami, Y.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C. ...
Astronomy and astrophysics (Berlin),
09/2020, Letnik:
641
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
We analyse the
Planck
full-mission cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and
E
-mode polarization maps to obtain constraints on primordial non-Gaussianity (NG). We compare estimates obtained ...from separable template-fitting, binned, and optimal modal bispectrum estimators, finding consistent values for the local, equilateral, and orthogonal bispectrum amplitudes. Our combined temperature and polarization analysis produces the following final results:
f
NL
local
= −0.9 ± 5.1;
f
NL
equil
= −26 ± 47; and
f
NL
ortho
= −38 ± 24 (68% CL, statistical). These results include low-multipole (4 ≤
ℓ
< 40) polarization data that are not included in our previous analysis. The results also pass an extensive battery of tests (with additional tests regarding foreground residuals compared to 2015), and they are stable with respect to our 2015 measurements (with small fluctuations, at the level of a fraction of a standard deviation, which is consistent with changes in data processing). Polarization-only bispectra display a significant improvement in robustness; they can now be used independently to set primordial NG constraints with a sensitivity comparable to WMAP temperature-based results and they give excellent agreement. In addition to the analysis of the standard local, equilateral, and orthogonal bispectrum shapes, we consider a large number of additional cases, such as scale-dependent feature and resonance bispectra, isocurvature primordial NG, and parity-breaking models, where we also place tight constraints but do not detect any signal. The non-primordial lensing bispectrum is, however, detected with an improved significance compared to 2015, excluding the null hypothesis at 3.5
σ
. Beyond estimates of individual shape amplitudes, we also present model-independent reconstructions and analyses of the
Planck
CMB bispectrum. Our final constraint on the local primordial trispectrum shape is
g
NL
local
= (−5.8 ± 6.5) × 10
4
(68% CL, statistical), while constraints for other trispectrum shapes are also determined. Exploiting the tight limits on various bispectrum and trispectrum shapes, we constrain the parameter space of different early-Universe scenarios that generate primordial NG, including general single-field models of inflation, multi-field models (e.g. curvaton models), models of inflation with axion fields producing parity-violation bispectra in the tensor sector, and inflationary models involving vector-like fields with directionally-dependent bispectra. Our results provide a high-precision test for structure-formation scenarios, showing complete agreement with the basic picture of the ΛCDM cosmology regarding the statistics of the initial conditions, with cosmic structures arising from adiabatic, passive, Gaussian, and primordial seed perturbations.
Planck 2018 results Akrami, Y.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J. ...
Astronomy and astrophysics (Berlin),
09/2020, Letnik:
641
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Analysis of the
Planck
2018 data set indicates that the statistical properties of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature anisotropies are in excellent agreement with previous studies using ...the 2013 and 2015 data releases. In particular, they are consistent with the Gaussian predictions of the ΛCDM cosmological model, yet also confirm the presence of several so-called “anomalies” on large angular scales. The novelty of the current study, however, lies in being a first attempt at a comprehensive analysis of the statistics of the polarization signal over all angular scales, using either maps of the Stokes parameters,
Q
and
U
, or the
E
-mode signal derived from these using a new methodology (which we describe in an appendix). Although remarkable progress has been made in reducing the systematic effects that contaminated the 2015 polarization maps on large angular scales, it is still the case that residual systematics (and our ability to simulate them) can limit some tests of non-Gaussianity and isotropy. However, a detailed set of null tests applied to the maps indicates that these issues do not dominate the analysis on intermediate and large angular scales (i.e.,
ℓ
≲ 400). In this regime, no unambiguous detections of cosmological non-Gaussianity, or of anomalies corresponding to those seen in temperature, are claimed. Notably, the stacking of CMB polarization signals centred on the positions of temperature hot and cold spots exhibits excellent agreement with the ΛCDM cosmological model, and also gives a clear indication of how
Planck
provides state-of-the-art measurements of CMB temperature and polarization on degree scales.
Planck 2018 results Akrami, Y.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J. ...
Astronomy and astrophysics (Berlin),
09/2020, Letnik:
641
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
We present full-sky maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and polarized synchrotron and thermal dust emission, derived from the third set of
Planck
frequency maps. These products have ...significantly lower contamination from instrumental systematic effects than previous versions. The methodologies used to derive these maps follow closely those described in earlier papers, adopting four methods (
Commander
,
NILC
,
SEVEM
, and
SMICA
) to extract the CMB component, as well as three methods (
Commander
,
GNILC
, and
SMICA
) to extract astrophysical components. Our revised CMB temperature maps agree with corresponding products in the
Planck
2015 delivery, whereas the polarization maps exhibit significantly lower large-scale power, reflecting the improved data processing described in companion papers; however, the noise properties of the resulting data products are complicated, and the best available end-to-end simulations exhibit relative biases with respect to the data at the few percent level. Using these maps, we are for the first time able to fit the spectral index of thermal dust independently over 3° regions. We derive a conservative estimate of the mean spectral index of polarized thermal dust emission of
β
d
= 1.55 ± 0.05, where the uncertainty marginalizes both over all known systematic uncertainties and different estimation techniques. For polarized synchrotron emission, we find a mean spectral index of
β
s
= −3.1 ± 0.1, consistent with previously reported measurements. We note that the current data processing does not allow for construction of unbiased single-bolometer maps, and this limits our ability to extract CO emission and correlated components. The foreground results for intensity derived in this paper therefore do not supersede corresponding
Planck
2015 products. For polarization the new results supersede the corresponding 2015 products in all respects.
In recent years, the economic and political aspects of energy problems have prompted many researchers and analysts to focus their attention on the Hubbert Peak Theory with the aim of forecasting ...future trends in world oil production.
In this paper, a model that attempts to contribute in this regard is presented; it is based on a variant of the well-known Hubbert curve. In addition, the sum of multiple-Hubbert curves (two cycles) is used to provide a better fit for the historical data on oil production (crude and natural gas liquid (NGL)).
Taking into consideration three possible scenarios for oil reserves, this approach allowed us to forecast when peak oil production, referring to crude oil and NGL, should occur.
In particular, by assuming a range of 2250–3000 gigabarrels (Gb) for ultimately recoverable conventional oil, our predictions foresee a peak between 2009 and 2021 at 29.3–32.1
Gb/year.
Planck intermediate results Aghanim, N; Ashdown, M; Aumont, J ...
Astronomy and astrophysics (Berlin),
12/2016, Letnik:
596
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
This paper describes the identification, modelling, and removal of previously unexplained systematic effects in the polarization data of the Planck High Frequency Instrument (HFI) on large angular ...scales, including new mapmaking and calibration procedures, new and more complete end-to-end simulations, and a set of robust internal consistency checks on the resulting maps. These maps, at 100, 143, 217, and 353GHz, are early versions of those that will be released in final form later in 2016. The improvements allow us to determine the cosmic reionization optical depth tau using, for the first time, the low-multipole EE data from HFI, reducing significantly the central value and uncertainty, and hence the upper limit. Two different likelihood procedures are used to constrain tau from two estimators of the CMB E- and B-mode angular power spectra at 100 and 143GHz, after debiasing the spectra from a small remaining systematic contamination. These all give fully consistent results. A further consistency test is performed using cross-correlations derived from the Low Frequency Instrument maps of the Planck 2015 data release and the new HFI data. For this purpose, end-to-end analyses of systematic effects from the two instruments are used to demonstrate the near independence of their dominant systematic error residuals. The tightest result comes from the HFI-based tau posterior distribution using the maximum likelihood power spectrum estimator from EE data only, giving a value 0.055 + or - 0.009. In a companion paper these results are discussed in the context of the best-fit PlanckLambdaCDM cosmological model and recent models of reionization.
Planck 2018 results Akrami, Y.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J. ...
Astronomy and astrophysics (Berlin),
09/2020, Letnik:
641
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
The study of polarized dust emission has become entwined with the analysis of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization in the quest for the curl-like
B
-mode polarization from primordial ...gravitational waves and the low-multipole
E
-mode polarization associated with the reionization of the Universe. We used the new
Planck
PR3 maps to characterize Galactic dust emission at high latitudes as a foreground to the CMB polarization and use end-to-end simulations to compute uncertainties and assess the statistical significance of our measurements. We present
Planck
EE
,
BB
, and
TE
power spectra of dust polarization at 353 GHz for a set of six nested high-Galactic-latitude sky regions covering from 24 to 71% of the sky. We present power-law fits to the angular power spectra, yielding evidence for statistically significant variations of the exponents over sky regions and a difference between the values for the
EE
and
BB
spectra, which for the largest sky region are
α
E
E
= −2.42 ± 0.02 and
α
B
B
= −2.54 ± 0.02, respectively. The spectra show that the
TE
correlation and
E/B
power asymmetry discovered by
Planck
extend to low multipoles that were not included in earlier
Planck
polarization papers due to residual data systematics. We also report evidence for a positive
TB
dust signal. Combining data from
Planck
and WMAP, we have determined the amplitudes and spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of polarized foregrounds, including the correlation between dust and synchrotron polarized emission, for the six sky regions as a function of multipole. This quantifies the challenge of the component-separation procedure that is required for measuring the low-
ℓ
reionization CMB
E
-mode signal and detecting the reionization and recombination peaks of primordial CMB
B
modes. The SED of polarized dust emission is fit well by a single-temperature modified black-body emission law from 353 GHz to below 70 GHz. For a dust temperature of 19.6 K, the mean dust spectral index for dust polarization is
β
d
P
= 1.53±0.02. The difference between indices for polarization and total intensity is
β
d
P
−
β
d
I
= 0.05±0.03. By fitting multi-frequency cross-spectra between
Planck
data at 100, 143, 217, and 353 GHz, we examine the correlation of the dust polarization maps across frequency. We find no evidence for a loss of correlation and provide lower limits to the correlation ratio that are tighter than values we derive from the correlation of the 217- and 353 GHz maps alone. If the
Planck
limit on decorrelation for the largest sky region applies to the smaller sky regions observed by sub-orbital experiments, then frequency decorrelation of dust polarization might not be a problem for CMB experiments aiming at a primordial
B
-mode detection limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio
r
≃ 0.01 at the recombination peak. However, the
Planck
sensitivity precludes identifying how difficult the component-separation problem will be for more ambitious experiments targeting lower limits on
r
.
PDF
