Objective To provide an overview of prediction models for risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the general population.Design Systematic review.Data sources Medline and Embase until June ...2013.Eligibility criteria for study selection Studies describing the development or external validation of a multivariable model for predicting CVD risk in the general population.Results 9965 references were screened, of which 212 articles were included in the review, describing the development of 363 prediction models and 473 external validations. Most models were developed in Europe (n=167, 46%), predicted risk of fatal or non-fatal coronary heart disease (n=118, 33%) over a 10 year period (n=209, 58%). The most common predictors were smoking (n=325, 90%) and age (n=321, 88%), and most models were sex specific (n=250, 69%). Substantial heterogeneity in predictor and outcome definitions was observed between models, and important clinical and methodological information were often missing. The prediction horizon was not specified for 49 models (13%), and for 92 (25%) crucial information was missing to enable the model to be used for individual risk prediction. Only 132 developed models (36%) were externally validated and only 70 (19%) by independent investigators. Model performance was heterogeneous and measures such as discrimination and calibration were reported for only 65% and 58% of the external validations, respectively.Conclusions There is an excess of models predicting incident CVD in the general population. The usefulness of most of the models remains unclear owing to methodological shortcomings, incomplete presentation, and lack of external validation and model impact studies. Rather than developing yet another similar CVD risk prediction model, in this era of large datasets, future research should focus on externally validating and comparing head-to-head promising CVD risk models that already exist, on tailoring or even combining these models to local settings, and investigating whether these models can be extended by addition of new predictors.
Abstract
Understanding the formation and evolution of our Galaxy requires accurate distances, ages, and chemistry for large populations of field stars. Here, we present several updates to our ...spectrophotometric distance code, which can now also be used to estimate ages, masses, and extinctions for individual stars. Given a set of measured spectrophotometric parameters, we calculate the posterior probability distribution over a given grid of stellar evolutionary models, using flexible Galactic stellar-population priors. The code (called StarHorse) can accommodate different observational data sets, prior options, partially missing data, and the inclusion of parallax information into the estimated probabilities. We validate the code using a variety of simulated stars as well as real stars with parameters determined from asteroseismology, eclipsing binaries, and isochrone fits to star clusters. Our main goal in this validation process is to test the applicability of the code to field stars with known Gaia-like parallaxes. The typical internal precisions (obtained from realistic simulations of an APOGEE+Gaia-like sample) are ${\simeq } 8\,\,\rm{per\,\,cent}$ in distance, ${\simeq } 20\,\,\rm{per\,\,cent}$ in age, ${\simeq } 6\,\,\rm{per\,\,cent}$ in mass, and ≃ 0.04 mag in AV. The median external precision (derived from comparisons with earlier work for real stars) varies with the sample used, but lies in the range of ${\simeq } 0,2\,\,\rm{per\,\,cent}$ for distances, ${\simeq } 12,31\,\,\rm{per\,\,cent}$ for ages, ${\simeq } 4,12\,\,\rm{per\,\,cent}$ for masses, and ≃ 0.07 mag for AV. We provide StarHorse distances and extinctions for the APOGEE DR14, RAVE DR5, GES DR3, and GALAH DR1 catalogues.
We perform a comprehensive study of Milky Way (MW) satellite galaxies to constrain the fundamental properties of dark matter (DM). This analysis fully incorporates inhomogeneities in the spatial ...distribution and detectability of MW satellites and marginalizes over uncertainties in the mapping between galaxies and DM halos, the properties of the MW system, and the disruption of subhalos by the MW disk. Our results are consistent with the cold, collisionless DM paradigm and yield the strongest cosmological constraints to date on particle models of warm, interacting, and fuzzy dark matter. At 95% confidence, we report limits on (i) the mass of thermal relic warm DM, m_{WDM}>6.5 keV (free-streaming length, λ_{fs}≲10h^{-1} kpc), (ii) the velocity-independent DM-proton scattering cross section, σ_{0}<8.8×10^{-29} cm^{2} for a 100 MeV DM particle mass DM-proton coupling, c_{p}≲(0.3 GeV)^{-2}, and (iii) the mass of fuzzy DM, m_{ϕ}>2.9×10^{-21} eV (de Broglie wavelength, λ_{dB}≲0.5 kpc). These constraints are complementary to other observational and laboratory constraints on DM properties.
We describe perturbation theory (PT) models of galaxy bias for applications to photometric galaxy surveys. We model the galaxy-galaxy and galaxy-matter correlation functions in configuration space ...and validate against measurements from mock catalogs designed for the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We find that an effective PT model with five galaxy bias parameters provides a good description of the 3D correlation functions above scales of 4 Mpc /h and z < 1 . Our tests show that at the projected precision of the DES Year 3 analysis, two of the nonlinear bias parameters can be fixed to their coevolution values, and a third (the k2 term for higher derivative bias) set to zero. The agreement is typically at the 2% level over scales of interest, which is the statistical uncertainty of our simulation measurements. To achieve this level of agreement, our fiducial model requires using the full nonlinear matter power spectrum (rather than the one-loop PT one). We also measure the relationship between the nonlinear and linear bias parameters and compare them to their expected coevolution values. We use these tests to motivate the galaxy bias model and scale cuts for the cosmological analysis of the Dark Energy Survey; our conclusions are generally applicable to all photometric surveys.
We report the discovery of 13 confirmed two-image quasar lenses from a systematic search for gravitationally lensed quasars in the SDSS-III Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS). We adopted ...a methodology similar to that used in the SDSS Quasar Lens Search (SQLS). In addition to the confirmed lenses, we report 11 quasar pairs with small angular separations ( ≲ 2 arcsec) confirmed from our spectroscopy, which are either projected pairs, physical binaries, or possibly quasar lens systems whose lens galaxies have not yet been detected. The newly discovered quasar lens system, SDSS J1452+4224 at z
s ≈ 4.8 is one of the highest redshift multiply imaged quasars found to date. Furthermore, we have over 50 good lens candidates yet to be followed up. Owing to the heterogeneous selection of BOSS quasars, the lens sample presented here does not have a well-defined selection function.
Using combined asteroseismic and spectroscopic observations of 418 red-giant stars close to the Galactic disc plane (6 kpc < RGal ≲ 13 kpc, | ZGal| < 0.3 kpc), we measure the age dependence of the ...radial metallicity distribution in the Milky Way’s thin disc over cosmic time. The slope of the radial iron gradient of the young red-giant population (−0.058 ± 0.008 stat. ±0.003 syst. dex/kpc) is consistent with recent Cepheid measurements. For stellar populations with ages of 1−4 Gyr the gradient is slightly steeper, at a value of −0.066 ± 0.007 ± 0.002 dex/kpc, and then flattens again to reach a value of ~−0.03 dex/kpc for stars with ages between 6 and 10 Gyr. Our results are in good agreement with a state-of-the-art chemo-dynamical Milky-Way model in which the evolution of the abundance gradient and its scatter can be entirely explained by a non-varying negative metallicity gradient in the interstellar medium, together with stellar radial heating and migration. We also offer an explanation for why intermediate-age open clusters in the solar neighbourhood can be more metal-rich, and why their radial metallicity gradient seems to be much steeper than that of the youngest clusters. Already within 2 Gyr, radial mixing can bring metal-rich clusters from the innermost regions of the disc to Galactocentric radii of 5 to 8 kpc. We suggest that these outward-migrating clusters may be less prone to tidal disruption and therefore steepen the local intermediate-age cluster metallicity gradient. Our scenario also explains why the strong steepening of the local iron gradient with age is not seen in field stars. In the near future, asteroseismic data from the K2 mission will allow for improved statistics and a better coverage of the inner-disc regions, thereby providing tighter constraints on theevolution of the central parts of the Milky Way.
We perform a joint analysis of the counts of redMaPPer clusters selected from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) year 1 data and multiwavelength follow-up data collected within the 2500 deg2 South Pole ...Telescope (SPT) Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) survey. The SPT follow-up data, calibrating the richness-mass relation of the optically selected redMaPPer catalog, enable the cosmological exploitation of the DES cluster abundance data. To explore possible systematics related to the modeling of projection effects, we consider two calibrations of the observational scatter on richness estimates: a simple Gaussian model which account only for the background contamination (BKG), and a model which further includes contamination and incompleteness due to projection effects (PRJ). Assuming either a Λ CDM + ∑ mν or w CDM + ∑ mν cosmology, and for both scatter models, we derive cosmological constraints consistent with multiple cosmological probes of the low and high redshift Universe, and in particular with the SPT cluster abundance data. This result demonstrates that the DES Y1 and SPT cluster counts provide consistent cosmological constraints, if the same mass calibration data set is adopted. It thus supports the conclusion of the DES Y1 cluster cosmology analysis which interprets the tension observed with other cosmological probes in terms of systematics affecting the stacked weak lensing analysis of optically selected low–richness clusters. Finally, we analyze the first combined optically SZ selected cluster catalog obtained by including the SPT sample above the maximum redshift probed by the DES Y1 redMaPPer sample (z = 0.65). Besides providing a mild improvement of the cosmological constraints, this data combination serves as a stricter test of our scatter models: the PRJ model, providing scaling relations consistent between the two abundance and multiwavelength follow-up data, is favored over the BKG model.
Abstract
Angiotensin II receptor 1(AT1) antagonists are beneficial in focal ischemia/reperfusion (I/R). However, in cases of global I/R, such as cardiac arrest (CA), AT1 blocker's potential benefits ...are still unknown. Wistar male rats were allocated into four groups: Control group (CG)—animals submitted to CA by ventricular fibrillation induced by direct electrical stimulation for 3 min, and anoxia for 5 min; Group AT1 (GAT1)—animals subjected to CA and treated with 0.2 mg/kg of candesartan diluted in dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO) (0.1%); Vehicle Group (VG): animals subjected to CA and treated with 0.2 ml/kg of DMSO and Sham group (SG)—animals submitted to surgical interventions, without CA. Cardiopulmonary resuscitation consisted of group medications, chest compressions, ventilation, epinephrine (20 mcg/kg) and defibrillation. The animals were observed up to 4 h after spontaneous circulation (ROSC) return, and survival rates, hemodynamic variables, histopathology, and markers of tissue injury were analyzed. GAT1 group had a higher rate of ROSC (62.5% vs. 42.1%,
p
< 0.0001), survival (100% vs. 62.5%,
p
= 0.027), lower incidence of arrhythmia after 10 min of ROSC (10% vs. 62.5%,
p
= 0.000), and lower neuronal and cardiac injury scores on histology evaluation (
p
= 0.025 and
p
= 0.0052, respectively) than GC group. The groups did not differ regarding CA duration, number of adrenaline doses, or number of defibrillations. AT1 receptor blockade with candesartan yielded higher rates of ROSC and survival, in addition to neuronal and myocardial protection.
We present photometric redshift estimates for galaxies used in the weak lensing analysis of the Dark Energy Survey Science Verification (DES SV) data. Four model- or machine learning-based ...photometric redshift methods-annz2, bpz calibrated against BCC-Ufig simulations, skynet, and tpz-are analyzed. For training, calibration, and testing of these methods, we construct a catalogue of spectroscopically confirmed galaxies matched against DES SV data. The performance of the methods is evaluated against the matched spectroscopic catalogue, focusing on metrics relevant for weak lensing analyses, with additional validation against COSMOS photo-z's. From the galaxies in the DES SV shear catalogue, which have mean redshift 0.72 + or - 0.01 over the range 0.3 < z< 1.3, we construct three tomographic bins with means of z= {0.45,0.67,1.00}. These bins each have systematic uncertainties delta sub(z)<, ~ 0.05 in the mean of the fiducial skynet photo-z n(z). We propagate the errors in the redshift distributions through to their impact on cosmological parameters estimated with cosmic shear, and find that they cause shifts in the value of sigma sub(8) of approximately 3%. This shift is within the one sigma statistical errors on sigma sub(8) for the DES SV shear catalogue. We further study the potential impact of systematic differences on the critical surface density, capital sigma sub(crit), finding levels of bias safely less than the statistical power of DES SV data. We recommend a final Gaussian prior for the photo-z bias in the mean of n(z) of width 0.05 for each of the three tomographic bins, and show that this is a sufficient bias model for the corresponding cosmology analysis.
Chemodynamics of the Milky Way Anders, F; Chiappini, C; Santiago, B X ...
Astronomy and astrophysics (Berlin),
04/2014, Letnik:
564
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Context. The Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) features the first multi-object high-resolution fiber spectrograph in the near-infrared ever built, thus making the survey ...unique in its capabilities: APOGEE is able to peer through the dust that obscures stars in the Galactic disc and bulge in the optical wavelength range. Here we explore the APOGEE data included as part of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey's 10th data release (SDSS DR10). Aims. The goal of this paper is to a) investigate the chemo-kinematic properties of the Milky Way disc by exploring the first year of APOGEE data; and b) to compare our results to smaller optical high-resolution samples in the literature, as well as results from lower resolution surveys such as the Geneva-Copenhagen Survey (GCS) and the RAdial Velocity Experiment (RAVE). Methods. We select a high-quality (HQ) sample in terms of chemistry (amounting to around 20 000 stars) and, after computing distances and orbital parameters for this sample, we employ a number of useful subsets to formulate constraints on Galactic chemical and chemodynamical evolution processes in the solar neighbourhood and beyond (e.g., metallicity distributions - MDFs, a/Fe vs. Fe/H diagrams, and abundance gradients). Results. Our red giant sample spans distances as large as 10 kpc from the Sun. Given our chemical quality requirements, most of the stars are located between 1 and 6 kpc from the Sun, increasing by at least a factor of eight the studied volume with respect to the most recent chemodynamical studies based on the two largest samples obtained from RAVE and the Sloan Extension for Galactic Understanding and Exploration (SEGUE). We find remarkable agreement between the MDF of the recently published local (d < 100 pc) high-resolution high-S/N HARPS sample and our local HQ sample (d < 1 kpc). The local MDF peaks slightly below solar metallicity, and exhibits an extended tail towards Fe/H= -1, whereas a sharper cutoff is seen at larger metallicities (the APOGEE sample shows a slight overabundance of stars with metallicities larger than Asymptotically = to+0.3 with respect to the HARPS sample). Both samples also compare extremely well in an a/Fe vs. Fe/H diagram. The APOGEE data also confirm the existence of a gap in the abundance diagram. When expanding our sample to cover three different Galactocentric distance bins (inner disc, solar vicinity and outer disc), we find the high-a/Fe stars to be rare towards the outer zones (implying a shorter scale-length of the thick disc with respect to the thin disc), as previously suggested in the literature. Finally, we measure the gradients in Fe/H and a/Fe, and their respective MDFs, over a range of 6 < R < 11 kpc in Galactocentric distance, and a 0 < z < 3 kpc range of distance from the Galactic plane. We find a good agreement with the gradients traced by the GCS and RAVE dwarf samples. For stars with 1.5 < z < 3 kpc (not present in the previous samples), we find a positive metallicity gradient and a negative gradient in a/Fe.
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