Crop models are used to estimate crop productivity under future climate projections, and modellers manage uncertainty by considering different scenarios and GCMs, using a range of crop simulators. ...Five crop models and 20 users were arranged in a randomized block design with four replicates. Parameters for maize (well studied by modellers) and rapeseed (almost ignored) were calibrated. While all models were accurate for maize (RRMSE from 16.5% to 25.9%), they were, to some extent, unsuitable for rapeseed. Although differences between biomass simulated by the models were generally significant for rapeseed, they were significant only in 30% of the cases for maize. This could suggest that in case of models well suited to a crop, user subjectivity (which explained 14% of total variance in maize outputs) can hide differences in model algorithms and, consequently, the uncertainty due to parameterization should be better investigated.
•Five crop models and 20 users were arranged in four randomized blocks.•The significance of model factor for maize and rapeseed was evaluated.•All models achieved good performance for maize and poor for rapeseed.•Differences between models were significant only in 30% of the cases for maize.•Parameterization uncertainty should be explicitly managed also in model ensembles.
Few data are available on the incidence of nosocomial Rotavirus infections (NRVI) in pediatric hospitals and on their economic impact. The goals of this study were: to evaluate the incidence of NRVI ...in various Italian pediatric wards during the course of two peak RV seasons; to investigate possible risk factors for NRVI; to estimate the costs caused by NRVI.
prospective cohort study.
All the children under 30 months of age who were admitted without any symptom or diagnosis of gastroenteritis in the pediatric hospitals of Florence, Naples, Brescia and Ancona, Italy, during the winter-spring periods 2006-2007 and 2007-2008. Serial RV rapid tests and clinical monitoring were carried out on the cohort. Telephone interviews were performed from 3 to 5 days after discharge.
520 out of 608 children completed the study (85.6%). The overall incidence of NRVI was 5.3% (CI95% 3.6-7.5), (7.9 per 1,000 days of hospital stay, CI 95% 5.3-11.3). The average duration of hospital stay was significantly longer for children who had NRVI (8.1 days, SD 5.4) than for non-infected children (6.4 days, SD 5.8, difference 1.7 days, p = 0.004). The risk of contracting NRVI increased significantly if the child stayed in hospital more than 5 days, RR = 2.8 (CI95% 1.3-6), p = 0.006. In Italy the costs caused by NRVI can be estimated at 8,019,155.44 Euro per year. 2.7% of the children hospitalized with no gastroenteritis symptoms tested positive for RV.
Our study showed a relevant incidence of NRVI, which can increase the length of the children's stay in hospital. Limiting the number of nosocomial RV infections is important to improve patients' safety as well as to avoid additional health costs.
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