In the Small Island Developing States (SIDS), public sector infrastructure projects (PSIPs) fail to both meet targeted performance metrics and deliver on the intended benefits to society. In terms of ...the cost performance metric, cost overruns (COs) beyond the initial contract value are more of a norm than a unique occurrence. Therefore, to ensure economic sustainability for SIDS, and value for money on PSIPs, there is a need to investigate and evaluate the risk impacts on COs. The purpose of this research was to identify and evaluate the perceived cost overrun risk factors that are within the primary project stakeholders’ sphere of control, and to reduce the ongoing ambiguities that exist in the prioritization of these risks. This was achieved by extracting critical risk factors from selected comparative studies in developing countries to formulate a closed-ended questionnaire to be administered to construction professionals in Trinidad and Tobago. Thereafter, the process of fuzzy synthetic evaluation (FSE) was used to develop a risk model based on three tiers of risks: 11 critical risk factors, 3 critical risk groupings (CRGs) and an overall risk level (ORL). The results showed that the two highest-ranked critical risks were project funding problems and variations by client. The leading critical risk grouping was client-related risk (5.370), followed by professional-related risk (4.815) and physical risk (4.870). The ORL was 5.068. Based on the FSE’s linguistic scaling, the CRGs and the ORL are perceived to be high risks in PSIPs. This research adds to the CO body of knowledge in primarily three ways. Firstly, the study extends the comparative assessment previously undertaken in scholarship into the context of SIDS to build on the generalizability of this context-specific phenomenon. Secondly, the FSE evaluation undertaken provides a practical tool to be promoted for use in SIDS’ construction industry among practitioners to focus and prioritize the critical risks in the planning phases and improve on contemporary risk practices in the execution phases of projects. Finally, this quantitative model approach is recommended to supplement the traditional qualitative risk management practices adopted in SIDS, thus contributing towards the overall improved economic sustainability and viability of PSIPs.
A pandemic is a force majeure event, and contracting parties can invoke conditions under force majeure to minimize liability for unforeseen, uncontrollable, and unavoidable circumstances. This study ...develops a conceptual model to assist in the management of delays and cost overruns due to force majeure events arising from the construction sector in Small Island Developing States (SIDS). A critical case study analysis of past epidemics and pandemics was conducted to develop a survey questionnaire for administration to construction professionals in Trinidad and Tobago. Based on the empirical data of 65 construction professionals, the structural equation model shows that there are strong causal effects from the implications of COVID-19 and force majeure events, which in turn have a dire impact on the construction industry. The leading implication of COVID-19 is the drastic increases in the cost of materials. Also, granting an extension of time to contractors was the main risk variable under the force majeure conditions. From the results, the measurement model verifies that events under force majeure and its perceived implications strongly influence the construction industry, and proposes that force majeure contractual clauses require explicit treatment of the periodic reoccurrence of pandemics to avoid conflicts among contracting parties. This research explores and builds on new avenues from the latest COVID-19 scholarship to better understand existing impacts on the construction industry, and consequently add to the novel body of knowledge on the implications of pandemics on construction contracts. Overall, this research provides a risk-guidance framework for construction professionals and academia to mitigate unforeseen, uncontrollable, and unavoidable risks on construction projects.
This paper investigates the conflicting and contrasting views between two prominent schools of thought (SOT), the conventional project management empirical school and the incoming behavioural and ...psychological sciences, to explain the cost overrun phenomenon in transportation infrastructure projects. Although theories within these SOTs seem to coexist and are used interchangeably, there exists a widening knowledge gap that leads to conflicting and contrasting ideological views. In this paper, we contend that there is a lack of a cross-fertilisation mechanism to fuse and co-join contemporary theories on cost overruns. This has led to the encapsulation and fragmented adhocracy in theory building. Utilising a critical review approach, this study proposes the concepts of ideological distancing and encapsulation between “empiricism” and “behavioural” SOTs as the focus of analyses for understanding the root causes of cost overruns in project studies. The study showed that the extant debate on cost overruns is limited and divergent, effectively contributing to the problem of continued expansion and non-convergence of theories that maintain parallel identities. This creates a space for inquiry, reflecting, theorising, and debating for the convergence of SOTs on cost overrun research and theories on what can be deemed project knowledge. This paper contributes to extant project studies by identifying the need for convergence and co-joining theories with different epistemes through causal linkages. Consequently, this will improve the public sector’s infrastructure policymaking by exposing the theoretical limitations of the current ad hoc manner and application of project management concepts based on the project professionals’ bounded decision-making rationalities.
Zoonoses, diseases affecting both humans and animals, can exert tremendous pressures on human and veterinary health systems, particularly in resource limited countries. Anthrax is one such zoonosis ...of concern and is a disease requiring greater public health attention in Nigeria. Here we describe the genetic diversity of Bacillus anthracis in Nigeria and compare it to Chad, Cameroon and a broader global dataset based on the multiple locus variable number tandem repeat (MLVA-25) genetic typing system. Nigerian B. anthracis isolates had identical MLVA genotypes and could only be resolved by measuring highly mutable single nucleotide repeats (SNRs). The Nigerian MLVA genotype was identical or highly genetically similar to those in the neighboring countries, confirming the strains belong to this unique West African lineage. Interestingly, sequence data from a Nigerian isolate shares the anthrose deficient genotypes previously described for strains in this region, which may be associated with vaccine evasion. Strains in this study were isolated over six decades, indicating a high level of temporal strain stability regionally. Ecological niche models were used to predict the geographic distribution of the pathogen for all three countries. We describe a west-east habitat corridor through northern Nigeria extending into Chad and Cameroon. Ecological niche models and genetic results show B. anthracis to be ecologically established in Nigeria. These findings expand our understanding of the global B. anthracis population structure and can guide regional anthrax surveillance and control planning.
The concept of ‘Lock-In’, or the escalating cost of overcommitment on a project to a failing course of action, has unforeseeable implications in project management. This paper presents a case study ...on the occurrence and consequences of lock-in within the context of public sector housing projects in a small island developing state (SIDS). It demonstrates that cost overruns continue beyond the commissioning phase and throughout the project’s lifecycle, even though technical contingencies were implemented to deliver the intended project benefits. The findings unpack the implications of political expediency as a strategic tool mobilised to supersede proper technical decision-making prior to project execution. It concludes that project practitioners’ commitment to select and continue with a sub-optimal project can lead to the implementation of ineffective solutions to justify their actions, resulting in failed outcomes with negative social consequences. This research helps to advance project management knowledge in the us-er/operation phase, because previous scholarly work was limited to investigating lock-in from project conceptualisation to the commissioning phase.
The two major causes of Parkinson's disease (PD) are genetic susceptibility and exposure to agricultural pesticides. Access to 23,224 individuals' hospital primary discharge diagnoses of PD allowed ...the mapping of cases against known crop distributions and pesticides. Our main objective was to map PD risks (cases per 10,000 people) against crops and their pesticides. The ZIP Code address locations, and the 2000 and 2010 census data, were used to map the risks of PD throughout Louisiana and in relation to United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)-recorded crops. The introduction of glyphosate-resistant crops appears to have initiated the PD disappearance from northeastern parishes on the west bank of the Mississippi river. Rice and sugar cane are seemingly unassociated with PD, as is the Mississippi itself, except for Jefferson and St. Charles Parishes, which are essentially urban or industrial. The present major PD-affected areas are associated with commercial forests, woodlands, and pastures, and thus with certain arbor-pastoral pesticides, 2,4-D, chlorpyrifos, and paraquat. Human populations at maximum risk are those living in areas of moderate and high aquifer-recharge potential. The levels of estimated pesticide exposure in these recharge areas we were able to access were of variable use, but significant amounts of 2,4-D were being used.
In Bangladesh, anthrax, caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, is considered an endemic disease affecting ruminants with sporadic zoonotic occurrences in humans. Due to the lack of knowledge ...about risks from an incorrect removal of infected carcasses, the disease is not properly monitored, and because of the socio-economic conditions, the situation is under-reported and under-diagnosed. For sensitive species, anthrax represents a fatal outcome with sudden death and sometimes bleeding from natural orifices. The most common source of infection for ruminants is ingestion of spores during grazing in contaminated pastures or through grass and water contaminated with anthrax spores. Domestic cattle, sheep and goats can also become infected through contaminated bone meal (used as feed) originating from anthrax-infected carcasses. The present investigation was conducted to isolate B. anthracis organisms from 169 samples (73 soil, 1 tissue, 4 bone and 91 bone meal samples) collected from 12 different districts of Bangladesh. The sampling was carried out from 2012 to 2015. Twelve samples resulted positive for B. anthracis. Biomolecular analyses were conducted starting from the Canonical Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (CanSNP) to analyze the phylogenetic origin of strains. The analysis of genotype, obtained through the Multiple Locus Variable Number Tandem Repeat Analysis (MLVA) with the analysis of 15 Variable Number Tandem Repeats (VNTR), demonstrated four different genotypes: two of them were previously identified in the district of Sirajganj. The sub-genotyping, conducted with Single Nucleotide Repeats analysis, revealed the presence of eight subgenotypes. The data of the present study concluded that there was no observed correlation between imported cattle feed and anthrax occurrence in Bangladesh and that the remarkable genetic variations of B. anthracis were found in the soil of numerous outbreaks in this country.
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