Summary Background Atrial fibrillation contributes to substantial increases in morbidity and mortality. We aimed to develop a risk score to predict individuals' absolute risk of developing the ...condition, and to provide a framework for researchers to assess new risk markers. Methods We assessed 4764 participants in the Framingham Heart Study from 8044 examinations (55% women, 45–95 years of age) undertaken between June, 1968, and September, 1987. Thereafter, participants were monitored for the first event of atrial fibrillation for a maximum of 10 years. Multivariable Cox regression identified clinical risk factors associated with development of atrial fibrillation in 10 years. Secondary analyses incorporated routine echocardiographic measurements (5152 participants, 7156 examinations) to reclassify the risk of atrial fibrillation and to assess whether these measurements improved risk prediction. Findings 457 (10%) of the 4764 participants developed atrial fibrillation. Age, sex, body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, treatment for hypertension, PR interval, clinically significant cardiac murmur, and heart failure were associated with atrial fibrillation and incorporated in a risk score (p<0·05, except body-mass index p=0·08), clinical model C statistic 0·78 (95% CI 0·76–0·80). Risk of atrial fibrillation in 10 years varied with age: more than 15% risk was recorded in 53 (1%) participants younger than 65 years, compared with 783 (27%) older than 65 years. Additional incorporation of echocardiographic measurements to enhance the risk prediction model only slightly improved the C statistic from 0·78 (95% CI 0·75–0·80) to 0·79 (0·77–0·82), p=0·005. Echocardiographic measurements did not improve risk reclassification (p=0·18). Interpretation From clinical factors readily accessible in primary care, our risk score could help to identify risk of atrial fibrillation for individuals in the community, assess technologies or markers for improvement of risk prediction, and target high-risk individuals for preventive measures. Funding US National Institutes of Health.
Summary Background Hepatic veno-occlusive disease is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality after haemopoietic stem-cell transplantation (HSCT). We aimed to assess whether defibrotide can reduce ...the incidence of veno-occlusive disease in this setting. Methods In our phase 3 open-label, randomised controlled trial, we enrolled patients at 28 European university hospitals or academic medical centres. Eligible patients were younger than 18 years, had undergone myeloablative conditioning before allogeneic or autologous HSCT, and had one or more risk factor for veno-occlusive disease based on modified Seattle criteria. We centrally assigned eligible participants on the basis of a computer-generated randomisation sequence (1:1), stratified by centre and presence of osteopetrosis, to receive intravenous defibrotide prophylaxis (treatment group) or not (control group). The primary endpoint was incidence of veno-occlusive disease by 30 days after HSCT, adjudicated by a masked, independent review committee, in eligible patients who consented to randomisation (intention-to-treat population), and was assessed with a competing risk approach. Patients in either group who developed veno-occlusive disease received defibrotide for treatment. We assessed adverse events to 180 days after HSCT in all patients who received allocated prophylaxis. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov , number NCT00272948. Findings Between Jan 25, 2006, and Jan 29, 2009, we enrolled 356 eligible patients to the intention-to-treat population. 22 (12%) of 180 patients randomly allocated to the defibrotide group had veno-occlusive disease by 30 days after HSCT compared with 35 (20%) of 176 controls (risk difference −7·7%, 95% CI −15·3 to −0·1; Z test for competing risk analysis p=0·0488; log-rank test p=0·0507). 154 (87%) of 177 patients in the defibrotide group had adverse events by day 180 compared with 155 (88%) of 176 controls. Interpretation Defibrotide prophylaxis seems to reduce incidence of veno-occlusive disease and is well tolerated. Thus, such prophylaxis could present a useful clinical option for this serious complication of HSCT. Funding Gentium SpA, European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation.
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