Warming climate, melting ice, rising seas
We know that the sea level will rise as climate warms. Nevertheless, accurate projections of how much sea-level rise will occur are difficult to make based ...solely on modern observations. Determining how ice sheets and sea level have varied in past warm periods can help us better understand how sensitive ice sheets are to higher temperatures. Dutton
et al.
review recent interdisciplinary progress in understanding this issue, based on data from four different warm intervals over the past 3 million years. Their synthesis provides a clear picture of the progress we have made and the hurdles that still exist.
Science
, this issue
10.1126/science.aaa4019
Reconstructing past magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise can help project what our warmer future may hold.
BACKGROUND
Although thermal expansion of seawater and melting of mountain glaciers have dominated global mean sea level (GMSL) rise over the last century, mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is expected to exceed other contributions to GMSL rise under future warming. To better constrain polar ice-sheet response to warmer temperatures, we draw on evidence from interglacial periods in the geologic record that experienced warmer polar temperatures and higher GMSLs than present. Coastal records of sea level from these previous warm periods demonstrate geographic variability because of the influence of several geophysical processes that operate across a range of magnitudes and time scales. Inferring GMSL and ice-volume changes from these reconstructions is nontrivial and generally requires the use of geophysical models.
ADVANCES
Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise. Advances in our understanding of polar ice-sheet response to warmer climates have been made through an increase in the number and geographic distribution of sea-level reconstructions, better ice-sheet constraints, and the recognition that several geophysical processes cause spatially complex patterns in sea level. In particular, accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to decipher spatial variability in coastal sea-level records and has reconciled a number of site-specific sea-level reconstructions for warm periods that have occurred within the past several hundred thousand years. This enables us to infer that during recent interglacial periods, small increases in global mean temperature and just a few degrees of polar warming relative to the preindustrial period resulted in ≥6 m of GMSL rise. Mantle-driven dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, affecting reconstructions for time periods such as the Pliocene (~3 million years ago), when atmospheric CO
2
was ~400 parts per million (ppm), similar to that of the present. Both modeling and field evidence suggest that polar ice sheets were smaller during this time period, but because dynamic topography can cause tens of meters of vertical displacement at Earth’s surface on million-year time scales and uncertainty in model predictions of this signal are large, it is currently not possible to make a precise estimate of peak GMSL during the Pliocene.
OUTLOOK
Our present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past, but a number of challenges remain to further constrain ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change using paleo–sea level records. Improving our understanding of rates of GMSL rise due to polar ice-mass loss is perhaps the most societally relevant information the paleorecord can provide, yet robust estimates of rates of GMSL rise associated with polar ice-sheet retreat and/or collapse remain a weakness in existing sea-level reconstructions. Improving existing magnitudes, rates, and sources of GMSL rise will require a better (global) distribution of sea-level reconstructions with high temporal resolution and precise elevations and should include sites close to present and former ice sheets. Translating such sea-level data into a robust GMSL signal demands integration with geophysical models, which in turn can be tested through improved spatial and temporal sampling of coastal records.
Further development is needed to refine estimates of past sea level from geochemical proxies. In particular, paired oxygen isotope and Mg/Ca data are currently unable to provide confident, quantitative estimates of peak sea level during these past warm periods. In some GMSL reconstructions, polar ice-sheet retreat is inferred from the total GMSL budget, but identifying the specific ice-sheet sources is currently hindered by limited field evidence at high latitudes. Given the paucity of such data, emerging geochemical and geophysical techniques show promise for identifying the sectors of the ice sheets that were most vulnerable to collapse in the past and perhaps will be again in the future.
Peak global mean temperature, atmospheric CO
2
, maximum global mean sea level (GMSL), and source(s) of meltwater.
Light blue shading indicates uncertainty of GMSL maximum. Red pie charts over Greenland and Antarctica denote fraction (not location) of ice retreat.
Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise from polar ice-sheet loss during past warm periods. Accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to reconcile spatial variability in peak sea level during marine isotope stages 5e and 11, when the global mean reached 6 to 9 meters and 6 to 13 meters higher than present, respectively. Dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, precluding robust sea-level estimates for intervals such as the Pliocene. Present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Here, we outline advances and challenges involved in constraining ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change with use of paleo–sea level records.
Micronutrient deficiencies (MNDs) remain widespread among people in sub-Saharan Africa
, where access to sufficient food from plant and animal sources that is rich in micronutrients (vitamins and ...minerals) is limited due to socioeconomic and geographical reasons
. Here we report the micronutrient composition (calcium, iron, selenium and zinc) of staple cereal grains for most of the cereal production areas in Ethiopia and Malawi. We show that there is geospatial variation in the composition of micronutrients that is nutritionally important at subnational scales. Soil and environmental covariates of grain micronutrient concentrations included soil pH, soil organic matter, temperature, rainfall and topography, which were specific to micronutrient and crop type. For rural households consuming locally sourced food-including many smallholder farming communities-the location of residence can be the largest influencing factor in determining the dietary intake of micronutrients from cereals. Positive relationships between the concentration of selenium in grain and biomarkers of selenium dietary status occur in both countries. Surveillance of MNDs on the basis of biomarkers of status and dietary intakes from national- and regional-scale food-composition data
could be improved using subnational data on the composition of grain micronutrients. Beyond dietary diversification, interventions to alleviate MNDs, such as food fortification
and biofortification to increase the micronutrient concentrations in crops
, should account for geographical effects that can be larger in magnitude than intervention outcomes.
Glyphosate, the most widely used herbicide, is linked with environmental harm and there is a drive to replace it in agricultural systems. We model the impacts of discontinuing glyphosate use and ...replacing it with cultural control methods. We simulate winter wheat arable systems reliant on glyphosate and typical in northwest Europe. Removing glyphosate was projected to increase weed abundance, herbicide risk to the environment, and arable plant diversity and decrease food production. Weed communities with evolved resistance to non-glyphosate herbicides were not projected to be disproportionately affected by removing glyphosate, despite the lack of alternative herbicidal control options. Crop rotations with more spring cereals or grass leys for weed control increased arable plant diversity. Stale seedbed techniques such as delayed drilling and choosing ploughing instead of minimum tillage had varying effects on weed abundance, food production, and profitability. Ploughing was the most effective alternative to glyphosate for long-term weed control while maintaining production and profit. Our findings emphasize the need for careful consideration of trade-offs arising in scenarios where glyphosate is removed. Integrated Weed Management (IWM) with more use of cultural control methods offers the potential to reduce chemical use but is sensitive to seasonal variability and can incur negative environmental and economic impacts.
Dietary zinc (Zn) deficiency is widespread globally, and in particular among people in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In Malawi, dietary sources of Zn are dominated by maize and spatially dependent ...variation in grain Zn concentration, which will affect dietary Zn intake, has been reported at distances of up to ~ 100 km. The aim of this study was to identify potential soil properties and environmental covariates which might explain this longer-range spatial variation in maize grain Zn concentration. Data for maize grain Zn concentrations, soil properties, and environmental covariates were obtained from a spatially representative survey in Malawi (n = 1600 locations). Labile and non-labile soil Zn forms were determined using isotopic dilution methods, alongside conventional agronomic soil analyses. Soil properties and environmental covariates as potential predictors of the concentration of Zn in maize grain were tested using a priori expert rankings and false discovery rate (FDR) controls within the linear mixed model (LMM) framework that informed the original survey design. Mean and median grain Zn concentrations were 21.8 and 21.5 mg kg
, respectively (standard deviation 4.5; range 10.0-48.1). A LMM for grain Zn concentration was constructed for which the independent variables: soil pH
, isotopically exchangeable Zn (Zn
), and diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid (DTPA) extractable Zn (Zn
) had predictive value (p < 0.01 in all cases, with FDR controlled at < 0.05). Downscaled mean annual temperature also explained a proportion of the spatial variation in grain Zn concentration. Evidence for spatially dependent variation in maize grain Zn concentrations in Malawi is robust within the LMM framework used in this study, at distances of up to ~ 100 km. Spatial predictions from this LMM provide a basis for further investigation of variations in the contribution of staple foods to Zn nutrition, and where interventions to increase dietary Zn intake (e.g. biofortification) might be most effective. Other soil and landscape factors influencing spatially dependent variation in maize grain Zn concentration, along with factors operating over shorter distances such as choice of crop variety and agronomic practices, require further exploration beyond the scope of the design of this survey.
The Bactrocera dorsalis complex of tropical fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae: Dacinae) contains 75 described species, largely endemic to Southeast Asia. Within the complex are a small number of ...polyphagous pests of international significance, including B. dorsalis sensu stricto, B. papayae, B. carambolae, and B. philippinensis. Most species within the complex were described in 1994 and since then substantial research has been undertaken in developing morphological and molecular diagnostic techniques for their recognition. Such techniques can now resolve most taxa adequately. Genetic evidence suggests that the complex has evolved in only the last few million years, and development of a phylogeny of the group is considered a high priority to provide a framework for future evolutionary and ecological studies. As model systems, mating studies on B. dorsalis s.s. and B. cacuminata have substantially advanced our understanding of insect use of plant-derived chemicals for mating, but such studies have not been applied to help resolve the limits of biological species within the complex. Although they are commonly regarded as major pests, there is little published evidence documenting economic losses caused by flies of the B. dorsalis complex. Quantification of economic losses caused by B. dorsalis complex species is urgently needed to prioritize research for quarantine and management. Although they have been documented as invaders, relatively little work has been done on the invasion biology of the complex and this is an area warranting further work.
Abstract
The discovery of GW170817 and GRB 170817A in tandem with AT 2017gfo cemented the connection between neutron star mergers, short gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), and kilonovae. To investigate short ...GRB observations in the context of diverse kilonova behavior, we present a comprehensive optical and near-IR catalog of 85 bursts discovered over 2005–2020 on timescales of ≲12 days. The sample includes previously unpublished observations of 23 bursts and encompasses both detections and deep upper limits. We identify 11.8% and 15.3% of short GRBs in our catalog with upper limits that probe luminosities lower than those of AT 2017gfo and a fiducial neutron star–black hole kilonova model (for pole-on orientations), respectively. We quantify the ejecta masses allowed by the deepest limits in our catalog, constraining blue and “extremely blue” kilonova components of 14.1% of bursts to
M
ej
≲ 0.01–0.1
M
⊙
. The sample of short GRBs is not particularly constraining for red kilonova components. Motivated by the large catalog, as well as model predictions of diverse kilonova behavior, we investigate modified search strategies for future follow-up to short GRBs. We find that ground-based optical and near-IR observations on timescales of ≳2 days can play a significant role in constraining more diverse outcomes. We expect future short GRB follow-up efforts, such as from the James Webb Space Telescope, to expand the reach of kilonova detectability to redshifts of
z
≈ 1.
Grain and soil were sampled across a large part of Amhara, Ethiopia in a study motivated by prior evidence of selenium (Se) deficiency in the Region's population. The grain samples (teff, Eragrostis ...tef, and wheat, Triticum aestivum) were analysed for concentration of Se and the soils were analysed for various properties, including Se concentration measured in different extractants. Predictive models for concentration of Se in the respective grains were developed, and the predicted values, along with observed concentrations in the two grains were represented by a multivariate linear mixed model in which selected covariates, derived from remote sensor observations and a digital elevation model, were included as fixed effects. In all modelling steps the selection of predictors was done using false discovery rate control, to avoid over-fitting, and using an α-investment procedure to maximize the statistical power to detect significant relationships by ordering the tests in a sequence based on scientific understanding of the underlying processes likely to control Se concentration in grain. Cross-validation indicated that uncertainties in the empirical best linear unbiased predictions of the Se concentration in both grains were well-characterized by the prediction error variances obtained from the model. The predictions were displayed as maps, and their uncertainty was characterized by computing the probability that the true concentration of Se in grain would be such that a standard serving would not provide the recommended daily allowance of Se. The spatial variation of grain Se was substantial, concentrations in wheat and teff differed but showed the same broad spatial pattern. Such information could be used to target effective interventions to address Se deficiency, and the general procedure used for mapping could be applied to other micronutrients and crops in similar settings.
Display omitted
•Joint soil and crop sampling was undertaken across Amhara Region, Ethiopia.•Statistical modelling of the resulting data incorporated extensive covariates.•Spatial predictions were made of grain selenium concentration.•These predictions, and their uncertainties, are presented as maps.•The maps show the probability that grain provides adequate dietary Se.
The prediction accuracy of soil properties by proximal soil sensing has made their application more practical. However, in order to gain sufficient accuracy, samples are typically air-dried and ...milled before spectral measurements are made. Calibration of the spectra is usually achieved by making wet chemistry measurements on a subset of the field samples and local regression models fitted to aid subsequent prediction. Both sample handling and wet chemistry can be labour and resource intensive. This study aims to quantify the uncertainty associated with soil property estimates from different methods to reduce effort of field-scale calibrations of soil spectra. We consider two approaches to reduce these expenses for predictions made from visible-near-infrared ((V)NIR), mid-infrared (MIR) spectra and their combination. First, we considered reducing the level of processing of the samples by comparing the effect of different sample conditions (in-situ, unprocessed, air-dried and milled). Second, we explored the use of existing spectral libraries to inform calibrations (based on milled samples from the UK National Soil Inventory) with and without ‘spiking’ the spectral libraries with a small subset of samples from the study fields. Prediction accuracy of soil organic carbon, pH, clay, available P and K for each of these approaches was evaluated on samples from agricultural fields in the UK. Available P and K could only be moderately predicted with the field-scale dataset where samples were milled. Therefore this study found no evidence to suggest that there is scope to reduce costs associated with sample processing or field-scale calibration for available P and K. However, the results showed that there is potential to reduce time and cost implications of using (V)NIR and MIR spectra to predict soil organic carbon, clay and pH. Compared to field-scale calibrations from milled samples, we found that reduced sample processing lowered the ratio of performance to inter-quartile range (RPIQ) between 0% and 76%. The use of spectral libraries reduced the RPIQ of predictions relative to field-scale calibrations from milled samples between 54% and 82% and the RPIQ was reduced between 29% and 70% for predictions when spectral libraries were spiked. The increase in uncertainty was specific to the combination of soil property and sensor analysed. We conclude that there is always a trade-off between prediction accuracy and the costs associated with soil sampling, sample processing and wet chemical analysis. Therefore the relative merits of each approach will depend on the specific case in question.
Display omitted
•Two methods that minimise calibration expenses for predictions from soil infrared spectra at the field-scale were contrasted.•Results showed the potential to reduce time and cost implications for predictions of soil organic carbon, clay and pH.•Uncertainty in organic carbon, pH and clay predictions increased by 0–76% under reduced sample processing.•Uncertainty increased by 54–82% for spectral libraries and by 29–70% when spectral libraries were spiked.•Available P and K could only be predicted with moderate accuracy from milled samples at the field-scale.
Background
Vitamin D has immune‐modulating effects. We determined whether vitamin D supplementation during pregnancy and infancy prevents aeroallergen sensitization and primary care respiratory ...illness presentations.
Methods
A randomized, double‐blind, placebo‐controlled parallel‐group trial. We assigned pregnant women, from 27‐week gestation to birth, and then their infants, from birth to 6 months, to placebo or one of two dosages of daily oral vitamin D. Woman/infant pairs were randomized to: placebo/placebo, 1000 IU/400 IU or 2000 IU/800 IU. When the children were 18 months old, we measured serum‐specific IgE antibodies and identified acute primary care visits described by the doctor to be due to a cold, otitis media, an upper respiratory infection, croup, asthma, bronchitis, bronchiolitis, a wheezy lower respiratory infection or fever and cough.
Results
Specific IgE was measured on 185 of 260 (71%) enrolled children. The proportion of children sensitized differed by study group for four mite antigens: Dermatophagoides farinae (Der‐f1, Der‐f2) and Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus (Der‐p1, Der‐p2). With results presented for placebo, lower dose, and higher dose vitamin D, respectively (all P < 0.05): Der‐f1 (18%, 10%, 2%), Der‐f2 (14%, 3%, 2%), Der‐p1 (19%, 14%, 3%) and Der‐p2 (12%, 2%, 3%). There were study group differences in the proportion of children with primary care visits described by the doctor as being for asthma (11%, 0%, 4%, P = 0.002), but not for the other respiratory diagnoses.
Conclusions
Vitamin D supplementation during pregnancy and infancy reduces the proportion of children sensitized to mites at age 18 months. Preliminary data indicate a possible effect on primary care visits where asthma is diagnosed.
PDF
