Background There has been no report on risk stratification for hepatectomy using a nationwide surgical database in Japan. The objective of this study was to evaluate mortality and variables ...associated with surgical outcomes of hepatectomy at a national level. Study Design We analyzed records of 7,732 patients who underwent hepatectomy for more than 1 segment (MOS) during 2011 in 987 different hospitals, as identified in the National Clinical Database (NCD) of Japan. The NCD captured 30-day morbidity and mortality as well as 90-day in-hospital mortality outcomes, which were submitted through a web-based data entry system. Based on 80% of the population, independent predictors for 30-day mortality and 90-day in-hospital mortality were calculated using a logistic regression model. The risk factors were validated with the remaining 20% of the cohort. Results The median postoperative length of hospitalization was 16.0 days. The overall patient morbidity rate was 32.1%. Thirty-day mortality and 90-day in-hospital mortality rates were 2.0% and 4.0%, respectively. Totals of 14 and 23 risk factors were respectively identified for 30-day mortality and 90-day in-hospital mortality. Factors associated with risk for 90-day in-hospital mortality were preoperative condition and comorbidity, operative indication (emergency surgery, intrahepatic/perihilar cholangiocarcinoma, or gallbladder cancer), preoperative laboratory data, and extent and location of resected segments (segment 1, 7, or 8). As a performance metric, c-indices of 30-day mortality and 90-day in-hospital mortality were 0.714 and 0.761, respectively. Conclusions Here we report the first risk stratification analysis of hepatectomy using a Japanese nationwide surgical database. This system would predict surgical outcomes of hepatectomy and be useful to evaluate and benchmark performance.
Objectives Antegrade cerebral perfusion and hypothermic circulatory arrest, with or without retrograde cerebral perfusion, are 2 major types of brain protection that are used during aortic arch ...surgery. We conducted a comparative study of these methods in patients undergoing total arch replacement to evaluate the clinical outcomes in Japan, based on the Japan Adult Cardiovascular Surgery Database. Methods A total of 16,218 patients underwent total arch replacement between 2009 and 2012. Patients with acute aortic dissection or ruptured aneurysm, or who underwent emergency surgery were excluded, leaving 8169 patients for analysis. For the brain protection method, 7038 patients had antegrade cerebral perfusion and 1141 patients had hypothermic circulatory arrest/retrograde cerebral perfusion. A nonmatched comparison was made between the 2 groups, and propensity score analysis was performed among 1141 patients. Results The matched paired analysis showed that the minimum rectal temperature was lower in the hypothermic circulatory arrest/retrograde cerebral perfusion group (21.2°C ± 3.7°C vs 24.2°C ± 3.2°C) and that the duration of cardiopulmonary bypass and cardiac ischemia was longer in the antegrade cerebral perfusion group. There were no significant differences between the antegrade cerebral perfusion and hypothermic circulatory arrest/retrograde cerebral perfusion groups with regard to 30-day mortality (3.2% vs 4.0%), hospital mortality (6.0% vs 7.1%), incidence of stroke (6.7% vs 8.6%), or transient neurologic disorder (4.1% vs 4.4%). There was no difference in a composite outcome of hospital death, bleeding, prolonged ventilation, need for dialysis, stroke, and infection (antegrade cerebral perfusion 28.4% vs hypothermic circulatory arrest 30.1%). However, hypothermic circulatory arrest/retrograde cerebral perfusion resulted in a significantly higher rate of prolonged stay in the intensive care unit (>8 days: 24.2% vs 15.6%). Conclusions Hypothermic circulatory arrest/retrograde cerebral perfusion and antegrade cerebral perfusion provide comparable clinical outcomes with regard to mortality and stroke rates, but hypothermic circulatory arrest/retrograde cerebral perfusion resulted in a higher incidence of prolonged intensive care unit stay. Antegrade cerebral perfusion might be preferred as the brain protection method for complicated aortic arch procedures.
The present study aimed to determine whether aortic cross-clamp duration (ACCD) was directly related to postoperative morbidity and mortality rates and to identify the inflection point of ACCD for ...increased mortality and morbidity rates in patients who had undergone isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR) for aortic stenosis.
From the Japan Cardiovascular Surgery Database, we extracted data from 16,272 patients with AS who underwent isolated AVR between January 2008 and December 2012. We evaluated postoperative mortality and morbidity rates after stratifying patients into five groups based on ACCD (<60 minutes, ≥60 to <90 minutes, ≥90 to <120 minutes, ≥120 to <150 minutes, and ≥150 minutes).
The overall hospital mortality rate was 2.8%. Multivariate logistic analysis revealed that the odds ratio for operative mortality increased as ACCD incrementally increased and was markedly higher for ACCD of 150 minutes or longer (odds ratio, 2.68; 95% confidence interval, 1.66 to 4.32; p < 0.001). There were significant increases in risks of reoperation for bleeding for ACCD of120 minutes or longer, stroke for ACCD of 60 minutes or longer, deep sternal infection for ACCD of 120 minutes or longer, ventilation for more than 24 hours for ACCD of 90 minutes or longer, and new requirement for dialysis for ACCD of 150 minutes or longer.
Prolonged ACCD offers an independent predictor of postoperative morbidity and mortality after isolated AVR for AS despite recent technologic advances and surgical refinements.
Background Low anterior resection is associated with a relatively high incidence of postoperative morbidities, including anastomotic leakage and other operative site infections, which sometimes ...result in postoperative mortality. Therefore, recognition of the incidence and risk factors of postoperative complications following low anterior resection is essential. Methods Data from the National Clinical Database on patients who had undergone low anterior resection in 2011 and 2012 were retrospectively analyzed. Multiple logistic regression analyses were performed to generate predictive models of postoperative complications. Receiver-operator characteristic curves were generated, and the concordance index was used to assess the model's discriminatory ability. Results The number of patients who had undergone low anterior resection was 33,411. Seven complications, namely, overall operative site infections except for leakage, anastomotic leakage, urinary tract infection, pneumonia, renal failure, systemic sepsis, and cardiac events, were selected to construct statistical risk models. The concordance indices for the first 2 complications, which were dependent on the operative procedure, were relatively low (0.593–0.625), and the other 5, unrelated to operative procedures, showed high concordance indices (0.643–0.799). Conclusion This study created the world's second risk calculator to predict the complications of low anterior resection as a model based on mass nationwide data. In particular, this model is the first to predict anastomotic leakage.
Abstract Background Stratifying patient risk for acute kidney injury (AKI) prior to percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) can enable clinicians to tailor their approach to minimize AKI. The ...National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR) CathPCI Registry recently developed 2 prediction models: for AKI and AKI requiring dialysis (AKI-D). Objectives This study sought to externally validate the NCDR AKI and AKI-D models in a Japanese population. Determining the generalizability of the U.S. model could support quality improvement efforts in Japan. Methods The NCDR prediction models were applied to 11,041 consecutive patients in the Japanese multicenter PCI registry. AKI was defined as an absolute increase ≥0.3 mg/dl or a relative increase of 50% in serum creatinine, in accordance with the definition of AKI Network criteria; AKI-D was defined as initiation of dialysis after PCI. Discrimination and calibration of the NCDR models were tested in the Japanese cohort. If the model was perfectly calibrated, the slope and intercept would equal 1.0 and 0.0, respectively. Results In the Japanese PCI cohort, AKI and AKI-D occurred in 10.5% and 1.5% of patients, respectively. The NCDR AKI prediction model showed good discrimination (c-statistic = 0.76) and calibration (slope = 0.93 and intercept = –0.10) in both acute and nonacute PCI. The AKI-D prediction model had good discrimination (c-statistic = 0.92), but while the calibration slope was good (1.04), the intercept was significantly underestimated (0.96). However, this was corrected with recalibration (slope = 1.04 and intercept = –0.087). Conclusions In a Japanese population, the NCDR AKI models validly predict post-procedural AKI and, with recalibration, AKI-D. Prospective use of these models to inform clinical decision making should be tested as a means of reducing AKI after PCI in Japan. (Japan Cardiovascular Database, Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Registry; UMIN R000004736 ).
Background Details on Japanese patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and how they compare to US patients remain unclear. Furthermore, the application of US risk models has not ...been evaluated internationally. Methods The JCD-KiCS, a multicenter registry of consecutive PCI patients, was launched in 2008, with variables defined in accordance with the US NCDR. Patient and procedural characteristics from patients enrolled from 2008 to 2010 in the JCD-KiCS database (n = 9,941) and those in the NCDR (n = 732,345) were compared. The primary outcomes of this analysis were the hospital-level all-cause mortality and bleeding complications. The NCDR risk models for these 2 outcomes were evaluated in the Japanese data set; from the expected mortality and bleeding rates, the observed/expected ratios were calculated. Results The Japanese patients were older, with a higher proportion of men, diabetes, and smoking than the US patients. The Japanese patients also had a higher rate of complex lesions (26.1 vs 12.7% for bifurcation and 6.2% vs 3.2% for chronic total occlusions, all P < .001), longer procedure time (29.7 ± 21.5 vs 14.4 ± 11.5 minutes, P < .001), and higher mortality (1.6% vs 0.9%, P < .001) and bleeding rates (2.9% vs 1.8%, P < .001) compared with US patients. The observed/expected ratios for mortality and bleeding were 0.921 and 0.467, respectively, in Japanese patients, and 1.002 and 0.981, respectively, for US patients. Conclusions The characteristics of patients undergoing PCI in clinical practice in Japan and the US differ substantially. The NCDR risk models applied well in Japanese patients for prediction of mortality, but not for bleeding, which tended to underestimate the risk.
The Japan Cardiovascular Surgery Database (JCVSD) is a nationwide benchmarking project to improve the quality of cardiovascular surgery in Japan. This study aimed to develop new JACVD risk models not ...only for operative mortality but also for each postoperative complication for coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) operations, valve operations, and thoracic aortic operations.
We analyzed 24,704 isolated CABG operations, 26,137 valve operations, and 18,228 thoracic aortic operations. Risk models were developed for each operation for operative death, permanent stroke, renal failure, prolonged ventilation (>24 hours), deep sternal wound infection, and reoperation for bleeding. The population was divided into an 80% development sample and a 20% validation sample. The statistical model was constructed by multiple logistic regression analysis. Model discrimination was tested using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (C index).
The 30-day mortality rates for isolated CABG, valve, and thoracic aortic operations were 1.5%, 2.5%, and 6.0%, respectively, and operative mortality rates were 2.4%, 3.8%, and 8.4%, respectively. The C indices for the end points of isolated CABG, valve, and aortic thoracic operations were 0.6358 for (deep sternal infection) to 0.8655 (operative mortality), 0.6114 (reoperation for bleeding) to 0.8319 (operative death), and 0.6311 (gastrointestinal complication) to 0.7591 (operative death), respectively.
These risk models increased the discriminatory power of former models. Thus, our models can be said to reflect the current state of Japan. With respect to major complications, useful feedback can now be provided through the Japan Cardiovascular Surgery Database Web-based system.
Objectives This study sought to evaluate the association between contrast-induced acute kidney injury (CI-AKI) after percutaneous coronary intervention and severity of bleeding estimated from ...periprocedural hemoglobin (Hb) measurement. Background The relationship between CI-AKI and bleeding in contemporary practice remains controversial. Methods In a retrospective analysis of the prospectively maintained Japan Cardiovascular Database-Keio Interhospital Cardiovascular Studies (JCD-KICS) multicenter registry, we divided 2,646 consecutive patients into 5 groups according to the change of Hb level after compared with before percutaneous coronary intervention: patients without a decrease in Hb level (group A) and patients with a decreased Hb level: <1 g/dl (group B); 1 to <2 g/dl (group C); 2 to <3g/dl (group D); and >3 g/dl (group E). CI-AKI was defined as an increase in serum creatinine level ≥0.5 mg/dl or ≥25% above baseline values at 48 h after administration of contrast media. Procedure and outcome variables were compared. Results The mean patient age was 67 ± 11 years. Of the 2,646 patients, CI-AKI developed in 315 (11.9%). The CI-AKI incidence was 6.2%, 7.5%, 10.7%, 17.0%, and 26.2%, in groups A through E, respectively (p < 0.01), whereas the incidence of major bleeding was 0.7%, 1.3%, 2.0%, 4.1%, and 28.3%, respectively (p < 0.01). CI-AKI was associated with higher rates of mortality (5.4% vs. 0.6%, p < 0.01) and of composite of heart failure, cardiogenic shock, and death (16.5% vs. 2.8%, p < 0.01). Conclusions Periprocedural bleeding was significantly associated with CI-AKI, with CI-AKI incidence correlating with bleeding severity.
Identifying and understanding reasons for being unsure or unwilling regarding intention to be vaccinated against coronavirus disease (COVID-19) may help to inform future public health messages aimed ...at increasing vaccination coverage. We analyzed a broad array of individual's psychological dispositions with regard to decision-making about COVID-19 vaccination in Japan.
A nationally representative cross-sectional web survey was conducted with 30053 Japanese adults aged 20 years or older at the end of February 2021. In addition to the question on the individual's intention to be vaccinated against COVID-19, respondents were asked about their sociodemographic, health-related, and psychological characteristics as well as information sources about COVID-19 and their levels of trust. Also, those who responded ‘not sure’ or ‘no’ regarding intention to take COVID-19 vaccine were asked why. Multinomial logistic regression with sparse group Lasso (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) penalty was used to compute adjusted odds ratios for factors associated with the intention (not sure/no versus yes).
The percentages of respondents who answered ‘not sure’ or ‘no’ regarding intention to be vaccinated against COVID-19 vaccine were 32.9% and 11.0%, respectively. After adjusting for covariates, the perceived risks of COVID-19, perceived risk of a COVID-19 vaccine, perceived benefits of a COVID-19 vaccine, trust in scientists and public authorities, and the belief that healthcare workers should be vaccinated were significantly associated with vaccination intention. Several sources of information about COVID-19 were also significantly associated with vaccination intention, including physicians, nurses, and television, medical information sites with lower odds of being unsure or unwilling, and internet news sites, YouTube, family members, and scientists and researchers with higher odds. The higher the level of trust in television as a source of COVID-19 information, the higher the odds of responding ‘not sure’ (odds ratio 1.11, 95% confidence interval 1.01–1.21). We also demonstrated that many respondents presented concerns about the side effects and safety of a COVID-19 vaccine as a major reason for being unsure or unwilling. To decide whether or not to get the vaccine, many respondents requested more information about the compatibilities between the vaccine and their personal health conditions, whether other people had been vaccinated, the effectiveness of vaccines against variants, and doctors’ recommendations.
Our findings suggest that public health messaging based on the sociodemographic and psychological characteristics of those who are unsure or unwilling regarding intention to be vaccinated against COVID-19 vaccine may help to increase vaccine uptake amongst this population.
The present work was supported in part by a grant from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan (H29-Gantaisaku-ippan-009).
Abstract Objective Using data from the Japan Adult Cardiovascular Surgery Database, we evaluated the prognostic influence of off-pump technique in patients with low ejection fraction who underwent ...coronary artery bypass grafting. Methods We analyzed 2187 patients with an ejection fraction <0.30 who underwent primary, nonemergency, isolated coronary artery bypass grafting between 2008 and 2012, as reported in the Japan Adult Cardiovascular Surgery Database. Patients were divided into on-pump (n = 1134; 51.1%) and off-pump (n = 1053; 48.9%) coronary artery bypass grafting groups. Propensity-score matching for 20 preoperative variables was performed, and early mortality and morbidity were compared between matched groups. Results Propensity-score matching created 918 pairs. Of the 918 patients in the off-pump group, conversion to an on-pump procedure occurred in 56 (6.1%). Compared with on-pump, off-pump technique was associated with significantly lower incidences of 30-day death (1.7% vs 3.7%; P = .01), operative death (3.3% vs 6.1%; P = .006), mediastinitis (1.9% vs 3.4%; P = .041), reoperation for bleeding (0.9% vs 3.5%; P < .001), and prolonged ventilation (8.2% vs 13.4%; P < .001). Comparison of patients undergoing off-pump versus on-pump procedures demonstrated no significant differences in the incidence of stroke (1.5% vs 2.1%; P = .38), renal failure (6.1% vs 7.4%; P = .26), and postoperative dialysis (3.1% vs 4.4%; P = .14). Institutional volume-adjusted analysis confirmed most of these results. Conclusions Off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting is associated with significantly reduced early mortality and morbidity in patients with an ejection fraction <0.30.
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