Six different strategies have recently been proposed for the European Union (EU) energy system in the European Commission's report, Energy Roadmap 2050. The objective for these strategies is to ...identify how the EU can reach its target of an 80% reduction in annual greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 compared to 1990 levels. None of these scenarios involve the large-scale implementation of district heating, but instead they focus on the electrification of the heating sector (primarily using heat pumps) and/or the large-scale implementation of electricity and heat savings. In this paper, the potential for district heating in the EU between now and 2050 is identified, based on extensive and detailed mapping of the EU heat demand and various supply options. Subsequently, a new ‘district heating plus heat savings’ scenario is technically and economically assessed from an energy systems perspective. The results indicate that with district heating, the EU energy system will be able to achieve the same reductions in primary energy supply and carbon dioxide emissions as the existing alternatives proposed. However, with district heating these goals can be achieved at a lower cost, with heating and cooling costs reduced by approximately 15%.
•A new heat atlas is created for the EU27.•District heating and renewable heat potentials are determined for 2030 and 2050.•A new heat strategy based on district heating and individual heat pumps is designed for the EU27.•This new heat strategy is compared to the energy efficiency scenario proposed by the European Commission.•Results indicate that this new heat strategy can reduce heating and cooling costs by ~15%, which is €100 billion per year.
Life‐history trade‐offs occur as a consequence of the compromise between maximization of different components such as the size and the number of clutches. Flight initiation distance (FID) potentially ...constitutes a general proximate factor influencing such trade‐offs reflecting the risks that individuals take. Therefore, greater investment in reproduction occurs at a higher risk of death, resulting in selection for efficient flight morphology. I analysed long‐term data on FID in a population of barn swallows Hirundo rustica during 1984–2013 with 2196 records of FID for 1789 individuals. FID had a repeatability of 0.62 (SE = 0.04) and a heritability of 0.48 (SE = 0.07). FID varied between individuals and sites, and it increased over time as climate ameliorated. FID showed a U‐shaped relationship with age, with young and very old individuals having the longest FIDs. Barn swallows that arrived early from spring migration, started to breed early and produced many fledglings had the longest FID. Individuals with the longest tails had the longest FID, and individuals with the shortest aspect ratios and wing loadings had the longest FID. Individuals that died from predation had shorter FID than survivors. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that FID relates directly to life history, with longer FIDs being associated with smaller levels of risk‐taking.
ABSTRACT
We report observations and analysis of the nearby gamma-ray burst GRB 161219B (redshift z = 0.1475) and the associated Type Ic supernova (SN) 2016jca. GRB 161219B had an isotropic gamma-ray ...energy of ∼1.6 × 1050 erg. Its afterglow is likely refreshed at an epoch preceding the first photometric points (0.6 d), which slows down the decay rates. Combined analysis of the SN light curve and multiwavelength observations of the afterglow suggest that the GRB jet was broad during the afterglow phase (full opening angle ∼42° ± 3°). Our spectral series shows broad absorption lines typical of GRB supernovae (SNe), which testify to the presence of material with velocities up to ∼0.25c. The spectrum at 3.73 d allows for the very early identification of an SN associated with a GRB. Reproducing it requires a large photospheric velocity ($35\, 000 \pm 7000$ km s−1). The kinetic energy of the SN is estimated through models to be Ekin≈4 × 1052 erg in spherical symmetry. The ejected mass in the explosion was Mej≈6.5 ± 1.5 M⊙, much less than that of other GRB-SNe, demonstrating diversity among these events. The total amount of 56Ni in the explosion was 0.27 ± 0.05 M⊙. The observed spectra require the presence of freshly synthesized 56Ni at the highest velocities, at least three times more than a standard GRB-SN. We also find evidence for a decreasing 56Ni abundance as a function of decreasing velocity. This suggests that SN 2016jca was a highly aspherical explosion viewed close to on-axis, powered by a compact remnant. Applying a typical correction for asymmetry, the energy of SN 2016jca was ∼(1–3) × 1052 erg, confirming that most of the energy produced by GRB-SNe goes into the kinetic energy of the SN ejecta.
Background
Offloading treatment is crucial to heal diabetes‐related foot ulcers (DFU). This systematic review aimed to assess the effectiveness of offloading interventions for people with DFU.
...Methods
We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane databases, and trials registries for all studies relating to offloading interventions in people with DFU to address 14 clinical question comparisons. Outcomes included ulcers healed, plantar pressure, weight‐bearing activity, adherence, new lesions, falls, infections, amputations, quality of life, costs, cost‐effectiveness, balance, and sustained healing. Included controlled studies were independently assessed for risk of bias and had key data extracted. Meta‐analyses were performed when outcome data from studies could be pooled. Evidence statements were developed using the GRADE approach when outcome data existed.
Results
From 19,923 studies screened, 194 eligible studies were identified (47 controlled, 147 non‐controlled), 35 meta‐analyses performed, and 128 evidence statements developed. We found non‐removable offloading devices likely increase ulcers healed compared to removable offloading devices (risk ratio RR 1.24, 95% CI 1.09–1.41; N = 14, n = 1083), and may increase adherence, cost‐effectiveness and decrease infections, but may increase new lesions. Removable knee‐high offloading devices may make little difference to ulcers healed compared to removable ankle‐high offloading devices (RR 1.00, 0.86–1.16; N = 6, n = 439), but may decrease plantar pressure and adherence. Any offloading device may increase ulcers healed (RR 1.39, 0.89–2.18; N = 5, n = 235) and cost‐effectiveness compared to therapeutic footwear and may decrease plantar pressure and infections. Digital flexor tenotomies with offloading devices likely increase ulcers healed (RR 2.43, 1.05–5.59; N = 1, n = 16) and sustained healing compared to devices alone, and may decrease plantar pressure and infections, but may increase new transfer lesions. Achilles tendon lengthening with offloading devices likely increase ulcers healed (RR 1.10, 0.97–1.27; N = 1, n = 64) and sustained healing compared to devices alone, but likely increase new heel ulcers.
Conclusions
Non‐removable offloading devices are likely superior to all other offloading interventions to heal most plantar DFU. Digital flexor tenotomies and Achilles tendon lengthening in combination with offloading devices are likely superior for some specific plantar DFU locations. Otherwise, any offloading device is probably superior to therapeutic footwear and other non‐surgical offloading interventions to heal most plantar DFU. However, all these interventions have low‐to‐moderate certainty of evidence supporting their outcomes and more high‐quality trials are needed to improve our certainty for the effectiveness of most offloading interventions.
Environmental conditions experienced in early life may shape subsequent phenotypic traits including life history. We investigated how predation risk caused by domestic cats (
Felis silvestris catus
) ...and local breeding density affected patterns of reproductive and survival senescence in Barn Swallows (
Hirundo rustica
) breeding semicolonially in Denmark. We recorded the abundance of cats and the number of breeding pairs at 39 breeding sites during 24 years and related these to age-specific survival rate and reproductive senescence to test predictions of the life history theory of senescence. We found evidence for actuarial senescence for the first time in this species. Survival rate increased until reaching a plateau in midlife and then decreased later. We also found that survival rate was higher for males than females. Local breeding density or predation risk did not affect survival as predicted by theory. Barn Swallows with short lives did not invest more in reproduction in early life, inconsistent with expectations for trade-offs between reproduction and survival as theory suggests. However, we found that the rate of reproductive decline during senescence was steeper for individuals exposed to intense competition, and predation pressure accelerated the rate of reproductive senescence, but only in sites with many breeding pairs. These latter results are in accordance with one of the predictions suggested by the life history theory of aging. These results emphasize the importance of considering intraspecific competition and interspecific interactions such as predation when analyzing reproductive and actuarial senescence.
Prey avoid being eaten by assessing the risk posed by approaching predators and responding accordingly. Such an assessment may result in prey–predator communication and signalling, which entail ...further monitoring of the predator by prey. An early antipredator response may provide potential prey with a selective advantage, although this benefit comes at the cost of disturbance in terms of lost foraging opportunities and increased energy expenditure. Therefore, it may pay prey to assess approaching predators and determine the likelihood of attack before fleeing. Given that many approaching potential predators are detected visually, we hypothesized that species with relatively large eyes would be able to detect an approaching predator from afar. Furthermore, we hypothesized that monitoring of predators by potential prey relies on evaluation through information processing by the brain. Therefore, species with relatively larger brains for their body size should be better able to monitor the intentions of a predator, delay flight for longer and hence have shorter flight initiation distances than species with smaller brains. Indeed, flight initiation distances increased with relative eye size and decreased with relative brain size in a comparative study of 107 species of birds. In addition, flight initiation distance increased independently with size of the cerebellum, which plays a key role in motor control. These results are consistent with cognitive monitoring as an antipredator behaviour that does not result in the fastest possible, but rather the least expensive escape flights. Therefore, antipredator behaviour may have coevolved with the size of sense organs, brains and compartments of the brain involved in responses to risk of predation.
Forceps, brushes or needles are currently the standard tools used during flexible bronchoscopy when diagnosing endobronchial malignancies. The new biopsy technique of cryobiopsy appears to provide ...better diagnostic samples. The aim of this study was to evaluate cryobiopsy over conventional endobronchial sampling. A total of 600 patients in eight centres with suspected endobronchial tumours were included in a prospective, randomised, single-blinded multicentre study. Patients were randomised to either sampling using forceps or the cryoprobe. After obtaining biopsy samples, a blinded histological evaluation was performed. According to the definitive clinical diagnosis, the diagnostic yield for malignancy was evaluated by a Chi-squared test. A total of 593 patients were randomised, of whom 563 had a final diagnosis of cancer. 281 patients were randomised to receive endobronchial biopsies using forceps and 282 had biopsies performed using a flexible cryoprobe. A definitive diagnosis was achieved in 85.1% of patients randomised to conventional forceps biopsy and 95.0% of patients who underwent cryobiopsy (p<0.001). Importantly, there was no difference in the incidence of significant bleeding. Endobronchial cryobiopsy is a safe technique with superior diagnostic yield in comparison with conventional forceps biopsy.
Long-term postoperative cognitive dysfunction may occur in the elderly. Age may be a risk factor and hypoxaemia and arterial hypotension causative factors. We investigated these hypotheses in an ...international multicentre study.
1218 patients aged at least 60 years completed neuropsychological tests before and 1 week and 3 months after major non-cardiac surgery. We measured oxygen saturation by continuous pulse oximetry before surgery and throughout the day of and the first 3 nights after surgery. We recorded blood pressure every 3 min by oscillometry during the operation and every 15–30 min for the rest of that day and night. We identified postoperative cognitive dysfunction with neuropsychological tests compared with controls recruited from the UK (n=176) and the same countries as study centres (n=145).
Postoperative cognitive dysfunction was present in 266 (25·8% 95% CI 23·1–28·5) of patients 1 week after surgery and in 94 (9·9% 8·1–12·0) 3 months after surgery, compared with 3·4% and 2·8%, respectively, of UK controls (p<0·0001 and p=0·0037, respectively). Increasing age and duration of anaesthesia, little education, a second operation, postoperative infections, and respiratory complications were risk factors for early postoperative cognitive dysfunction, but only age was a risk factor for late postoperative cognitive dysfunction. Hypoxaemia and hypotension were not significant risk factors at any time.
Our findings have implications for studies of the causes of cognitive decline and, in clinical practice, for the information given to patients before surgery.
Predation is a common cause of death in numerous organisms, and a host of antipredator defences have evolved. Such defences often have a genetic background as shown by significant heritability and ...microevolutionary responses towards weaker defences in the absence of predators. Flight initiation distance (FID) is the distance at which an individual animal takes flight when approached by a human, and hence, it reflects the life‐history compromise between risk of predation and the benefits of foraging. Here, we analysed FID in 128 species of birds in relation to three measures of genetic variation, band sharing coefficient for minisatellites, observed heterozygosity and inbreeding coefficient for microsatellites in order to test whether FID was positively correlated with genetic variation. We found consistently shorter FID for a given body size in the presence of high band sharing coefficients, low heterozygosity and high inbreeding coefficients in phylogenetic analyses after controlling statistically for potentially confounding variables. These findings imply that antipredator behaviour is related to genetic variance. We predict that many threatened species with low genetic variability will show reduced antipredator behaviour and that subsequent predator‐induced reductions in abundance may contribute to unfavourable population trends for such species.
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