A workshop on enhancing climate change indices in South America was held in Maceió, Brazil, in August 2004. Scientists from eight southern countries brought daily climatological data from their ...region for a meticulous assessment of data quality and homogeneity, and for the preparation of climate change indices that can be used for analyses of changes in climate extremes. This study presents an examination of the trends over 1960–2000 in the indices of daily temperature extremes. The results indicate no consistent changes in the indices based on daily maximum temperature while significant trends were found in the indices based on daily minimum temperature. Significant increasing trends in the percentage of warm nights and decreasing trends in the percentage of cold nights were observed at many stations. It seems that this warming is mostly due to more warm nights and fewer cold nights during the summer (December–February) and fall (March–May). The stations with significant trends appear to be located closer to the west and east coasts of South America.
A weeklong workshop in Brazil in August 2004 provided the opportunity for 28 scientists from southern South America to examine daily rainfall observations to determine changes in both total and ...extreme rainfall. Twelve annual indices of daily rainfall were calculated over the period 1960 to 2000, examining changes to both the entire distribution as well as the extremes. Maps of trends in the 12 rainfall indices showed large regions of coherent change, with many stations showing statistically significant changes in some of the indices. The pattern of trends for the extremes was generally the same as that for total annual rainfall, with a change to wetter conditions in Ecuador and northern Peru and the region of southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and northern and central Argentina. A decrease was observed in southern Peru and southern Chile, with the latter showing significant decreases in many indices. A canonical correlation analysis between each of the indices and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) revealed two large-scale patterns that have contributed to the observed trends in the rainfall indices. A coupled pattern with ENSO-like SST loadings and rainfall loadings showing similarities with the pattern of the observed trend reveals that the change to a generally more negative Southern Oscillation index (SOI) has had an important effect on regional rainfall trends. A significant decrease in many of the rainfall indices at several stations in southern Chile and Argentina can be explained by a canonical pattern reflecting a weakening of the continental trough leading to a southward shift in storm tracks. This latter signal is a change that has been seen at similar latitudes in other parts of the Southern Hemisphere. A similar analysis was carried out for eastern Brazil using gridded indices calculated from 354 stations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) database. The observed trend toward wetter conditions in the southwest and drier conditions in the northeast could again be explained by changes in ENSO.
Factors driving inter-individual differences in immune responses upon different types of prenatal malaria exposure (PME) and subsequent risk of malaria in infancy remain poorly understood. In this ...study, we examined the impact of four types of PME (i.e., maternal peripheral infection and placental acute, chronic, and past infections) on both spontaneous and toll-like receptors (TLRs)-mediated cytokine production in cord blood and how these innate immune responses modulate the risk of malaria during the first year of life.
We conducted a birth cohort study of 313 mother-child pairs nested within the COSMIC clinical trial (NCT01941264), which was assessing malaria preventive interventions during pregnancy in Burkina Faso. Malaria infections during pregnancy and infants' clinical malaria episodes detected during the first year of life were recorded. Supernatant concentrations of 30 cytokines, chemokines, and growth factors induced by stimulation of cord blood with agonists of TLRs 3, 7/8, and 9 were measured by quantitative suspension array technology. Crude concentrations and ratios of TLR-mediated cytokine responses relative to background control were analyzed.
Spontaneous production of innate immune biomarkers was significantly reduced in cord blood of infants exposed to malaria, with variation among PME groups, as compared to those from the non-exposed control group. However, following TLR7/8 stimulation, which showed higher induction of cytokines/chemokines/growth factors than TLRs 3 and 9, cord blood cells of infants with evidence of past placental malaria were hyper-responsive in comparison to those of infants not-exposed. In addition, certain biomarkers, which levels were significantly modified depending on the PME category, were independent predictors of either malaria risk (GM-CSF TLR7/8 crude) or protection (IL-12 TLR7/8 ratio and IP-10 TLR3 crude, IL-1RA TLR7/8 ratio) during the first year of life.
These findings indicate that past placental malaria has a profound effect on fetal immune system and that the differential alterations of innate immune responses by PME categories might drive heterogeneity between individuals to clinical malaria susceptibility during the first year of life.
ABSTRACT
In this study, we investigated how different categories of prenatal malaria exposure (PME) influence levels of maternal antibodies in cord blood samples and the subsequent risk of malaria in ...early childhood in a birth cohort study (
N
= 661) nested within the COSMIC clinical trial (NCT01941264) in Burkina Faso.
Plasmodium falciparum
infections during pregnancy and infants’ clinical malaria episodes detected during the first year of life were recorded. The levels of maternal IgG and IgG
1-4
to 15
P
.
falciparum
antigens were measured in cord blood by quantitative suspension array technology. Results showed a significant variation in the magnitude of maternal antibody levels in cord blood, depending on the PME category, with past placental malaria (PM) more frequently associated with significant increases of IgG and/or subclass levels across three groups of antigens defined as pre-erythrocytic, erythrocytic, and markers of PM, as compared to those from the cord of non-exposed control infants. High levels of antibodies to certain erythrocytic antigens (i.e., IgG to EBA140 and EBA175, IgG1 to EBA175 and MSP1
42
, and IgG3 to EBA140 and MSP5) were independent predictors of protection from clinical malaria during the first year of life. By contrast, high levels of IgG, IgG1, and IgG2 to the VAR2CSA DBL1-2 and IgG4 to DBL3-4 were significantly associated with an increased risk of clinical malaria. These findings indicate that PME categories have different effects on the levels of maternal-derived antibodies to malaria antigens in children at birth, and this might drive heterogeneity to clinical malaria susceptibility in early childhood.
The NCEP Regional Spectral Model (RSM), with horizontal resolution of 60 km, was used to downscale the ECHAM4.5 AGCM (T42) simulations forced with observed SSTs over northeast Brazil. An ensemble of ...10 runs for the period January–June 1971–2000 was used in this study. The RSM can resolve the spatial patterns of observed seasonal precipitation and capture the interannual variability of observed seasonal precipitation as well. The AGCM bias in displacement of the Atlantic ITCZ is partially corrected in the RSM. The RSM probability distribution function of seasonal precipitation anomalies is in better agreement with observations than that of the driving AGCM. Good potential prediction skills are demonstrated by the RSM in predicting the interannual variability of regional seasonal precipitation. The RSM can also capture the interannual variability of observed precipitation at intraseasonal time scales, such as precipitation intensity distribution and dry spells. A drought index and a flooding index were adopted to indicate the severity of drought and flooding conditions, and their interannual variability was reproduced by the RSM. The overall RSM performance in the downscaled climate of the ECHAM4.5 AGCM is satisfactory over Nordeste. The primary deficiency is a systematic dry bias for precipitation simulation.
The International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) and Ceará Foundation for Meteorology and Water Resources (FUNCEME) in Brazil have developed a dynamical downscaling prediction system ...for Northeast Brazil (the Nordeste) and have been issuing seasonal rainfall forecasts since December 2001. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first operational climate dynamical downscaling prediction system. The ECHAM4.5 AGCM and the NCEP Regional Spectral Model (RSM) are the core of this prediction system. This is a two-tiered prediction system. SST forecasts are produced first, which then serve as the lower boundary condition forcing for the ECHAM4.5 AGCM–NCEP RSM nested system. Hindcasts for January–June 1971–2000 with the nested model, using observed SSTs, provided estimates of model potential predictability and characteristics of the model climatology. During 2002–04, the overall rainfall forecast skill, measured by the ranked probability skill score (RPSS), is positive over a majority of the Nordeste. Higher skill is found for the March–May (MAM) and April–June (AMJ) seasons with forecast lead times up to 3 months. The skill of the downscaled forecasts is generally higher than that of the driving global model forecasts.
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