Global estimates of the effect of common modifiable risk factors on cardiovascular disease and mortality are largely based on data from separate studies, using different methodologies. The ...Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study overcomes these limitations by using similar methods to prospectively measure the effect of modifiable risk factors on cardiovascular disease and mortality across 21 countries (spanning five continents) grouped by different economic levels.
In this multinational, prospective cohort study, we examined associations for 14 potentially modifiable risk factors with mortality and cardiovascular disease in 155 722 participants without a prior history of cardiovascular disease from 21 high-income, middle-income, or low-income countries (HICs, MICs, or LICs). The primary outcomes for this paper were composites of cardiovascular disease events (defined as cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure) and mortality. We describe the prevalence, hazard ratios (HRs), and population-attributable fractions (PAFs) for cardiovascular disease and mortality associated with a cluster of behavioural factors (ie, tobacco use, alcohol, diet, physical activity, and sodium intake), metabolic factors (ie, lipids, blood pressure, diabetes, obesity), socioeconomic and psychosocial factors (ie, education, symptoms of depression), grip strength, and household and ambient pollution. Associations between risk factors and the outcomes were established using multivariable Cox frailty models and using PAFs for the entire cohort, and also by countries grouped by income level. Associations are presented as HRs and PAFs with 95% CIs.
Between Jan 6, 2005, and Dec 4, 2016, 155 722 participants were enrolled and followed up for measurement of risk factors. 17 249 (11·1%) participants were from HICs, 102 680 (65·9%) were from MICs, and 35 793 (23·0%) from LICs. Approximately 70% of cardiovascular disease cases and deaths in the overall study population were attributed to modifiable risk factors. Metabolic factors were the predominant risk factors for cardiovascular disease (41·2% of the PAF), with hypertension being the largest (22·3% of the PAF). As a cluster, behavioural risk factors contributed most to deaths (26·3% of the PAF), although the single largest risk factor was a low education level (12·5% of the PAF). Ambient air pollution was associated with 13·9% of the PAF for cardiovascular disease, although different statistical methods were used for this analysis. In MICs and LICs, household air pollution, poor diet, low education, and low grip strength had stronger effects on cardiovascular disease or mortality than in HICs.
Most cardiovascular disease cases and deaths can be attributed to a small number of common, modifiable risk factors. While some factors have extensive global effects (eg, hypertension and education), others (eg, household air pollution and poor diet) vary by a country's economic level. Health policies should focus on risk factors that have the greatest effects on averting cardiovascular disease and death globally, with additional emphasis on risk factors of greatest importance in specific groups of countries.
Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).
To our knowledge, no previous study has prospectively documented the incidence of common diseases and related mortality in high-income countries (HICs), middle-income countries (MICs), and low-income ...countries (LICs) with standardised approaches. Such information is key to developing global and context-specific health strategies. In our analysis of the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study, we aimed to evaluate differences in the incidence of common diseases, related hospital admissions, and related mortality in a large contemporary cohort of adults from 21 HICs, MICs, and LICs across five continents by use of standardised approaches.
The PURE study is a prospective, population-based cohort study of individuals aged 35–70 years who have been enrolled from 21 countries across five continents. The key outcomes were the incidence of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular diseases, cancers, injuries, respiratory diseases, and hospital admissions, and we calculated the age-standardised and sex-standardised incidence of these events per 1000 person-years.
This analysis assesses the incidence of events in 162 534 participants who were enrolled in the first two phases of the PURE core study, between Jan 6, 2005, and Dec 4, 2016, and who were assessed for a median of 9·5 years (IQR 8·5–10·9). During follow-up, 11 307 (7·0%) participants died, 9329 (5·7%) participants had cardiovascular disease, 5151 (3·2%) participants had a cancer, 4386 (2·7%) participants had injuries requiring hospital admission, 2911 (1·8%) participants had pneumonia, and 1830 (1·1%) participants had chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Cardiovascular disease occurred more often in LICs (7·1 cases per 1000 person-years) and in MICs (6·8 cases per 1000 person-years) than in HICs (4·3 cases per 1000 person-years). However, incident cancers, injuries, COPD, and pneumonia were most common in HICs and least common in LICs. Overall mortality rates in LICs (13·3 deaths per 1000 person-years) were double those in MICs (6·9 deaths per 1000 person-years) and four times higher than in HICs (3·4 deaths per 1000 person-years). This pattern of the highest mortality in LICs and the lowest in HICs was observed for all causes of death except cancer, where mortality was similar across country income levels. Cardiovascular disease was the most common cause of deaths overall (40%) but accounted for only 23% of deaths in HICs (vs 41% in MICs and 43% in LICs), despite more cardiovascular disease risk factors (as judged by INTERHEART risk scores) in HICs and the fewest such risk factors in LICs. The ratio of deaths from cardiovascular disease to those from cancer was 0·4 in HICs, 1·3 in MICs, and 3·0 in LICs, and four upper-MICs (Argentina, Chile, Turkey, and Poland) showed ratios similar to the HICs. Rates of first hospital admission and cardiovascular disease medication use were lowest in LICs and highest in HICs.
Among adults aged 35–70 years, cardiovascular disease is the major cause of mortality globally. However, in HICs and some upper-MICs, deaths from cancer are now more common than those from cardiovascular disease, indicating a transition in the predominant causes of deaths in middle-age. As cardiovascular disease decreases in many countries, mortality from cancer will probably become the leading cause of death. The high mortality in poorer countries is not related to risk factors, but it might be related to poorer access to health care.
Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).
Higher levels of sodium intake are reported to be associated with higher blood pressure. Whether this relationship varies according to levels of sodium or potassium intake and in different ...populations is unknown.
We studied 102,216 adults from 18 countries. Estimates of 24-hour sodium and potassium excretion were made from a single fasting morning urine specimen and were used as surrogates for intake. We assessed the relationship between electrolyte excretion and blood pressure, as measured with an automated device.
Regression analyses showed increments of 2.11 mm Hg in systolic blood pressure and 0.78 mm Hg in diastolic blood pressure for each 1-g increment in estimated sodium excretion. The slope of this association was steeper with higher sodium intake (an increment of 2.58 mm Hg in systolic blood pressure per gram for sodium excretion >5 g per day, 1.74 mm Hg per gram for 3 to 5 g per day, and 0.74 mm Hg per gram for <3 g per day; P<0.001 for interaction). The slope of association was steeper for persons with hypertension (2.49 mm Hg per gram) than for those without hypertension (1.30 mm Hg per gram, P<0.001 for interaction) and was steeper with increased age (2.97 mm Hg per gram at >55 years of age, 2.43 mm Hg per gram at 45 to 55 years of age, and 1.96 mm Hg per gram at <45 years of age; P<0.001 for interaction). Potassium excretion was inversely associated with systolic blood pressure, with a steeper slope of association for persons with hypertension than for those without it (P<0.001) and a steeper slope with increased age (P<0.001).
In this study, the association of estimated intake of sodium and potassium, as determined from measurements of excretion of these cations, with blood pressure was nonlinear and was most pronounced in persons consuming high-sodium diets, persons with hypertension, and older persons. (Funded by the Heart and Stroke Foundation of Ontario and others.).
The optimal range of sodium intake for cardiovascular health is controversial.
We obtained morning fasting urine samples from 101,945 persons in 17 countries and estimated 24-hour sodium and ...potassium excretion (used as a surrogate for intake). We examined the association between estimated urinary sodium and potassium excretion and the composite outcome of death and major cardiovascular events.
The mean estimated sodium and potassium excretion was 4.93 g per day and 2.12 g per day, respectively. With a mean follow-up of 3.7 years, the composite outcome occurred in 3317 participants (3.3%). As compared with an estimated sodium excretion of 4.00 to 5.99 g per day (reference range), a higher estimated sodium excretion (≥ 7.00 g per day) was associated with an increased risk of the composite outcome (odds ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval CI, 1.02 to 1.30), as well as increased risks of death and major cardiovascular events considered separately. The association between a high estimated sodium excretion and the composite outcome was strongest among participants with hypertension (P=0.02 for interaction), with an increased risk at an estimated sodium excretion of 6.00 g or more per day. As compared with the reference range, an estimated sodium excretion that was below 3.00 g per day was also associated with an increased risk of the composite outcome (odds ratio, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.44). As compared with an estimated potassium excretion that was less than 1.50 g per day, higher potassium excretion was associated with a reduced risk of the composite outcome.
In this study in which sodium intake was estimated on the basis of measured urinary excretion, an estimated sodium intake between 3 g per day and 6 g per day was associated with a lower risk of death and cardiovascular events than was either a higher or lower estimated level of intake. As compared with an estimated potassium excretion that was less than 1.50 g per day, higher potassium excretion was associated with a lower risk of death and cardiovascular events. (Funded by the Population Health Research Institute and others.).
Background & objectives: Studying vaccine hesitancy is important for helping improve vaccine coverage against COVID-19. The objective of this study was to assess the prevalence and correlates of ...COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in a rural community in India.
Methods: A cross-sectional study of all adults aged over 18 yr was undertaken during July-August 2021, in a village outside Bengaluru city in southern India.
Results: In our study, 68.7 per cent of the eligible 297 adult population accepted vaccination immediately, another 9.4 per cent hesitated but accepted vaccination without delay, a further 10.4 per cent delayed their vaccination and the remaining 11.5 per cent refused vaccination. The prevalence (95% confidence interval) of vaccine hesitancy was 21.9±4.8 per cent. Full vaccination was higher among males (76%) compared to females (58%, P <0.001). Those who hesitated and delayed vaccination (converts) were more likely to be from a nuclear family, whereas those who refused the vaccine were from a joint/three-generation family. Those who refused vaccination were adversely influenced by social media predominantly as also their religious/cultural beliefs and distrust on the pharmaceutical industry. Those who delayed but accepted vaccination were positively influenced by healthcare professionals and others who had accepted the vaccine recently. Geographic factors, cost of vaccine, and mode of administration were not the major concerns.
Interpretation & conclusions: Vaccine uptake is a continuum. Our study helped identify the characteristics of those who delayed vaccination versus those who refused vaccination. This will help policymakers, programme managers and healthcare professionals to focus priority action on population subgroups for improving individual- and population-level protection.
Summary Background Several studies reported a U-shaped association between urinary sodium excretion and cardiovascular disease events and mortality. Whether these associations vary between those ...individuals with and without hypertension is uncertain. We aimed to explore whether the association between sodium intake and cardiovascular disease events and all-cause mortality is modified by hypertension status. Methods In this pooled analysis, we studied 133 118 individuals (63 559 with hypertension and 69 559 without hypertension), median age of 55 years (IQR 45–63), from 49 countries in four large prospective studies and estimated 24-h urinary sodium excretion (as group-level measure of intake). We related this to the composite outcome of death and major cardiovascular disease events over a median of 4·2 years (IQR 3·0–5·0) and blood pressure. Findings Increased sodium intake was associated with greater increases in systolic blood pressure in individuals with hypertension (2·08 mm Hg change per g sodium increase) compared with individuals without hypertension (1·22 mm Hg change per g; pinteraction <0·0001). In those individuals with hypertension (6835 events), sodium excretion of 7 g/day or more (7060 11% of population with hypertension: hazard ratio HR 1·23 95% CI 1·11–1·37; p<0·0001) and less than 3 g/day (7006 11% of population with hypertension: 1·34 1·23–1·47; p<0·0001) were both associated with increased risk compared with sodium excretion of 4–5 g/day (reference 25% of the population with hypertension). In those individuals without hypertension (3021 events), compared with 4–5 g/day (18 508 27% of the population without hypertension), higher sodium excretion was not associated with risk of the primary composite outcome (≥7 g/day in 6271 9% of the population without hypertension; HR 0·90 95% CI 0·76–1·08; p=0·2547), whereas an excretion of less than 3 g/day was associated with a significantly increased risk (7547 11% of the population without hypertension; HR 1·26 95% CI 1·10–1·45; p=0·0009). Interpretation Compared with moderate sodium intake, high sodium intake is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events and death in hypertensive populations (no association in normotensive population), while the association of low sodium intake with increased risk of cardiovascular events and death is observed in those with or without hypertension. These data suggest that lowering sodium intake is best targeted at populations with hypertension who consume high sodium diets. Funding Full funding sources listed at end of paper (see Acknowledgments).
More than 80% of deaths from cardiovascular disease are estimated to occur in low-income and middle-income countries, but the reasons are unknown.
We enrolled 156,424 persons from 628 urban and rural ...communities in 17 countries (3 high-income, 10 middle-income, and 4 low-income countries) and assessed their cardiovascular risk using the INTERHEART Risk Score, a validated score for quantifying risk-factor burden without the use of laboratory testing (with higher scores indicating greater risk-factor burden). Participants were followed for incident cardiovascular disease and death for a mean of 4.1 years.
The mean INTERHEART Risk Score was highest in high-income countries, intermediate in middle-income countries, and lowest in low-income countries (P<0.001). However, the rates of major cardiovascular events (death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure) were lower in high-income countries than in middle- and low-income countries (3.99 events per 1000 person-years vs. 5.38 and 6.43 events per 1000 person-years, respectively; P<0.001). Case fatality rates were also lowest in high-income countries (6.5%, 15.9%, and 17.3% in high-, middle-, and low-income countries, respectively; P=0.01). Urban communities had a higher risk-factor burden than rural communities but lower rates of cardiovascular events (4.83 vs. 6.25 events per 1000 person-years, P<0.001) and case fatality rates (13.52% vs. 17.25%, P<0.001). The use of preventive medications and revascularization procedures was significantly more common in high-income countries than in middle- or low-income countries (P<0.001).
Although the risk-factor burden was lowest in low-income countries, the rates of major cardiovascular disease and death were substantially higher in low-income countries than in high-income countries. The high burden of risk factors in high-income countries may have been mitigated by better control of risk factors and more frequent use of proven pharmacologic therapies and revascularization. (Funded by the Population Health Research Institute and others.).
Depression is common among primary care patients in LMIC but treatments are largely ineffective. In this cluster-randomized controlled trial, we tested whether depression outcomes are different among ...recipients of a collaborative care model compared to enhanced standard treatment in patients with co-morbid chronic medical conditions.
We conducted a cluster randomized controlled trial among participants 30 years or older seeking care at 49 primary health centers (PHCs) in rural Karnataka, diagnosed with major depressive disorder, dysthymia, generalized anxiety disorder, or panic disorder on the MINI-International Neuropsychiatric Interview plus either hypertension, diabetes, or ischemic heart disease. From a list of all PHCs in the district, 24 PHCs were randomized a priori to deliver collaborative care and 25 PHCs enhanced standard treatment. The collaborative care model consisted of a clinic-based and a community-based component. Study assessment staff was blinded to treatment arm allocation. The primary outcome was the individual-level PHQ-9 score over time.
Between May 2015 and Nov 2018, 2486 participants were enrolled, 1264 in the control arm, and 1222 in the intervention arm. They were assessed at baseline, 3, 6 and 12 months. The mean PHQ-9 depression score was around 8.5 at baseline. At each follow-up PHQ-9 scores were significantly lower in the intervention (5.24, 4.81 and 4.22 at respective follow-ups) than in the control group (6.69, 6.13, 5.23, respectively). A significant time-by-treatment interaction (p < 0.001) in a multi-level model over all waves, nested within individuals who were nested within PHCs, confirmed that the decrease in depression score from baseline was larger for collaborative care than enhanced standard care throughout follow-up.
The collaborative care intervention resulted in significantly lower depression scores compared to enhanced standard care among participants with co-morbid physical conditions. The findings have potential implications for integrating mental health and chronic disease treatment in resource constrained settings.
ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02310932 , registered on December 8, 2014, and Clinical Trials Registry India CTRI/2018/04/013001 , registered on April 4, 2018. Retrospectively registered.
Household air pollution (HAP) from solid fuel use for cooking affects 2.5 billion individuals globally and may contribute substantially to disease burden. However, few prospective studies have ...assessed the impact of HAP on mortality and cardiorespiratory disease.
Our goal was to evaluate associations between HAP and mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and respiratory disease in the prospective urban and rural epidemiology (PURE) study.
We studied 91,350 adults 35–70 y of age from 467 urban and rural communities in 11 countries (Bangladesh, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, India, Pakistan, Philippines, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe). After a median follow-up period of 9.1 y, we recorded 6,595 deaths, 5,472 incident cases of CVD (CVD death or nonfatal myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure), and 2,436 incident cases of respiratory disease (respiratory death or nonfatal chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pulmonary tuberculosis, pneumonia, or lung cancer). We used Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for individual, household, and community-level characteristics to compare events for individuals living in households that used solid fuels for cooking to those using electricity or gas.
We found that 41.8% of participants lived in households using solid fuels as their primary cooking fuel. Compared with electricity or gas, solid fuel use was associated with fully adjusted hazard ratios of 1.12 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.21) for all-cause mortality, 1.08 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.17) for fatal or nonfatal CVD, 1.14 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.30) for fatal or nonfatal respiratory disease, and 1.12 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.19) for mortality from any cause or the first incidence of a nonfatal cardiorespiratory outcome. Associations persisted in extensive sensitivity analyses, but small differences were observed across study regions and across individual and household characteristics.
Use of solid fuels for cooking is a risk factor for mortality and cardiorespiratory disease. Continued efforts to replace solid fuels with cleaner alternatives are needed to reduce premature mortality and morbidity in developing countries. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP3915.
Kangaroo mother care (KMC) scale-up is a proposed strategy to accelerate reduction in neonatal mortality rates. We aimed to identify determinants of KMC uptake for small babies (less than 2,000 g ...birth weight) along the health facility to community continuum in Karnataka, India.
From June 2017 to March 2020, data on characteristics of health facilities and health care workers (HCWs) from 8 purposively selected health facilities were assessed. Knowledge, attitude, and support the mothers received for KMC uptake were assessed once between 4 weeks and 8 weeks unadjusted age of the cohort of babies. Secondary data on KMC were obtained from the district-wide implementation research project database. Bivariate analysis was used to assess the association of characteristics of health facilities, HCWs, mothers, and small babies with the day of KMC initiation and its duration. Log-binomial regression analysis was then computed to identify determinants of KMC.
We recruited 227 (91.5%) of 248 babies eligible to participate with a mean unadjusted age of 35.6 days (±7.5) and 1,693.9 g (±263.1 g) birth weight. KMC was initiated for 95.2% of 227 babies at the health facility; initiated at 3 days or earlier of life for 59.6% of 226 babies; and babies continued to receive KMC for more than 4 weeks (30.2 days ±8.4) at home. Determinants of KMC initiation were HCWs' attitudes, initiation support at the health facility, and place of hospitalization. Determinants of KMC maintenance at the health facility were HCWs' skills and support the mother received at the facility after initiating KMC. Place of hospitalization and HCWs' knowledge determined KMC duration at home 1 week after discharge.
These findings emphasize the importance of competent HCWs and support for mothers at the health facility for initiation and maintenance of KMC within the health facility and 1 week after discharge.
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