Simulations from a multi-model ensemble for the RCP4.5 climate change scenario for the 21st century, and for two solar radiation management (SRM) schemes (stratospheric sulfate injection (G3), SULF ...and marine cloud brightening by sea salt emission SALT) have been analysed in terms of changes in the mean and extremes of surface air temperature and precipitation. The climate engineering and termination periods are investigated. During the climate engineering period, both schemes, as intended, offset temperature increases by about 60 % globally, but are more effective in the low latitudes and exhibit some residual warming in the Arctic (especially in the case of SALT which is only applied in the low latitudes). In both climate engineering scenarios, extreme temperature changes are similar to the mean temperature changes over much of the globe. The exceptions are the mid- and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, where high temperatures (90th percentile of the distribution) of the climate engineering period compared to RCP4.5 control period rise less than the mean, and cold temperatures (10th percentile), much more than the mean. This aspect of the SRM schemes is also reflected in simulated reduction in the frost day frequency of occurrence for both schemes. However, summer day frequency of occurrence increases less in the SALT experiment than the SULF experiment, especially over the tropics. Precipitation extremes in the two SRM scenarios act differently - the SULF experiment more effectively mitigates extreme precipitation increases over land compared to the SALT experiment. A reduction in dry spell occurrence over land is observed in the SALT experiment. The SULF experiment has a slight increase in the length of dry spells. A strong termination effect is found for the two climate engineering schemes, with large temperature increases especially in the Arctic. Globally, SULF is more effective in reducing extreme temperature increases over land than SALT. Extreme precipitation increases over land is also more reduced in SULF than the SALT experiment. However, globally SALT decreases the frequency of dry spell length and reduces the occurrence of hot days compared to SULF.
Current climate models often predict fractional cloud cover on the basis of a diagnostic probability density function (PDF) describing the subgrid‐scale variability of the total water specific ...humidity, qt, favouring schemes with limited complexity. Standard shapes are uniform or triangular PDFs, the widths of which are assumed to scale with the grid‐box mean qt or the grid‐box mean saturation specific humidity, qs. In this study, the qt variability is analysed from large‐eddy simulations for two stratocumulus, two shallow cumulus, and one deep convective cases. We find that, in most cases, triangles are a better approximation to the simulated PDFs than uniform distributions. In 2 of the 24 slices examined, the actual distributions were so strongly skewed that the simple symmetric shapes could not capture the PDF at all. The distribution width for either shape scales acceptably well with both the mean values of qt and qs, the former being a slightly better choice. The qt variance is underestimated by the fitted PDFs, but overestimated by the existing parametrizations. While the cloud fraction is in general relatively well diagnosed from fitted or parametrized uniform or triangular PDFs, it fails to capture cases with small partial cloudiness, and in 10–30% of the cases misdiagnoses clouds in clear skies or vice versa. The results suggest choosing a parametrization with a triangular shape, where the distribution width would scale with the grid‐box mean qt using a scaling factor of 0.076. However, this is subject to the caveat that the reference simulations examined here were partly for rather small domains and driven by idealised boundary conditions.
Rapid adjustments are responses to forcing agents that cause a perturbation to the top of atmosphere energy budget but are uncoupled to changes in surface warming. Different mechanisms are ...responsible for these adjustments for a variety of climate drivers. These remain to be quantified in detail. It is shown that rapid adjustments reduce the effective radiative forcing (ERF) of black carbon by half of the instantaneous forcing, but for CO2 forcing, rapid adjustments increase ERF. Competing tropospheric adjustments for CO2 forcing are individually significant but sum to zero, such that the ERF equals the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing, but this is not true for other forcing agents. Additional experiments of increase in the solar constant and increase in CH4 are used to show that a key factor of the rapid adjustment for an individual climate driver is changes in temperature in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere.
Plain Language Summary
Long‐term global warming can be estimated with knowledge of how climate forcing agents affect the Earth's top‐of‐atmosphere energy imbalance or effective radiative forcing. Changes in climate forcers, such as greenhouse gases, the Sun's intensity, or emission of aerosol particles, typically impose a direct change in the energy budget, termed an instantaneous radiative forcing. Further to this, a climate forcer may induce changes in the atmosphere, such as a change in thermal structure, clouds, or humidity. These changes themselves, termed rapid adjustments, contribute to the top‐of‐atmosphere energy budget. Together, the instantaneous radiative forcing plus rapid adjustments equals the effective radiative forcing. We show that for different climate forcing agents, the rapid adjustments behave very differently and are driven by different atmospheric mechanisms. For example, rapid adjustments add to the instantaneous forcing for a carbon dioxide increase, due to a cooling of the stratosphere, but oppose instantaneous forcing for black carbon, driven by a warming troposphere and lowering of cloud height. Understanding rapid adjustments gives a more complete picture of the climate effects of different climate forcers.
Key Points
Rapid adjustments affect the Earth's energy balance in different ways for greenhouse gas, aerosol, and solar forcing
Radiative kernels and partial radiative perturbations are used to diagnose rapid adjustments from atmospheric and cloud changes
Noncloud adjustments agree well between models, whereas cloud adjustments exhibit more spread
During the last year the CMS experiment engaged in consolidation of its existing event display programs. The core of the new system is based on the Fireworks event display program which was by-design ...directly integrated with the CMS Event Data Model (EDM) and the light version of the software framework (FWLite). The Event Visualization Environment (EVE) of the ROOT framework is used to manage a consistent set of 3D and 2D views, selection, user-feedback and user-interaction with the graphics windows; several EVE components were developed by CMS in collaboration with the ROOT project. In event display operation simple plugins are registered into the system to perform conversion from EDM collections into their visual representations which are then managed by the application. Full event navigation and filtering as well as collection-level filtering is supported. The same data-extraction principle can also be applied when Fireworks will eventually operate as a service within the full software framework.
Rapid adjustments—the response of meteorology to external forcing while sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea ice are held fixed—can affect the midlatitude circulation and contribute to long-term ...forced circulation responses in climate simulations. This study examines rapid adjustments in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation using nine models from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), which perform fixed SST and coupled ocean experiments for five perturbations: a doubling of carbon dioxide (2xCO2), a tripling of methane (3xCH4), a fivefold increase in sulfate aerosol (5xSO4), a tenfold increase in black carbon aerosol (10xBC), and a 2%increase in solar constant (2%Sol). In the coupled experiments, the SH eddy-driven jet shifts poleward and strengthens for forcings that produce global warming (and vice versa for 5xSO4), with the strongest response found in austral summer. In austral winter, the responses project more strongly onto a change in jet strength. For 10xBC, which induces strong shortwave absorption, the multimodel mean (MMM) rapid adjustment in DJF jet latitude is ∼75% of the change in the coupled simulations. For the other forcings, which induce larger SST changes, the effect of SST-mediated feedbacks on the SH circulation is larger than the rapid adjustment. Nevertheless, for these perturbations the magnitude of the MMM jet shift due to the rapid adjustment is still around 20%–30% of that in the coupled experiments. The results demonstrate the need to understand the mechanisms for rapid adjustments in the midlatitude circulation, in addition to the effect of changing SSTs.
Efficacy of Climate Forcings in PDRMIP Models Richardson, T B; Forster, P M; Smith, C J ...
Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres,
16 December 2019, Letnik:
124, Številka:
23
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Quantifying the efficacy of different climate forcings is important for understanding the real‐world climate sensitivity. This study presents a systematic multimodel analysis of different climate ...driver efficacies using simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Efficacies calculated from instantaneous radiative forcing deviate considerably from unity across forcing agents and models. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is a better predictor of global mean near‐surface air temperature (GSAT) change. Efficacies are closest to one when ERF is computed using fixed sea surface temperature experiments and adjusted for land surface temperature changes using radiative kernels. Multimodel mean efficacies based on ERF are close to one for global perturbations of methane, sulfate, black carbon, and insolation, but there is notable intermodel spread. We do not find robust evidence that the geographic location of sulfate aerosol affects its efficacy. GSAT is found to respond more slowly to aerosol forcing than CO2 in the early stages of simulations. Despite these differences, we find that there is no evidence for an efficacy effect on historical GSAT trend estimates based on simulations with an impulse response model, nor on the resulting estimates of climate sensitivity derived from the historical period. However, the considerable intermodel spread in the computed efficacies means that we cannot rule out an efficacy‐induced bias of ±0.4 K in equilibrium climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling when estimated using the historical GSAT trend.
During the Eastern Pacific Emitted Aerosol Cloud Experiment (E-PEACE), a plume of organic aerosol was produced by a smoke generator and emitted into the marine atmosphere from aboard the R/V Point ...Sur. In this study, the hygroscopic properties and the chemical composition of the plume were studied at plume ages between 0 and 4 h in different meteorological conditions. In sunny conditions, the plume particles had very low hygroscopic growth factors (GFs): between 1.05 and 1.09 for 30 nm and between 1.02 and 1.1 for 150 nm dry size at a relative humidity (RH) of 92%, contrasted by an average marine background GF of 1.6. New particles were produced in large quantities (several 10 000 cm−3), which lead to substantially increased cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations at supersaturations between 0.07 and 0.88%. Ratios of oxygen to carbon (O : C) and water-soluble organic mass (WSOM) increased with plume age: from < 0.001 to 0.2, and from 2.42 to 4.96 μg m−3, respectively, while organic mass fractions decreased slightly (~ 0.97 to ~ 0.94). High-resolution aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) spectra show that the organic fragment m/z 43 was dominated by C2H3O+ in the small, new particle mode and by C3H7+ in the large particle mode. In the marine background aerosol, GFs for 150 nm particles at 40% RH were found to be enhanced at higher organic mass fractions: an average GF of 1.06 was observed for aerosols with an organic mass fraction of 0.53, and a GF of 1.04 for an organic mass fraction of 0.35.
A new counterflow virtual impactor (CVI) inlet is introduced with details of its design, laboratory characterisation tests and deployment on an aircraft during the 2011 Eastern Pacific Emitted ...Aerosol Cloud Experiment (E-PEACE). The CVI inlet addresses three key issues in previous designs; in particular, the inlet operates with: (i) negligible organic contamination; (ii) a significant sample flow rate to downstream instruments (∼15 l min−1) that reduces the need for dilution; and (iii) a high level of accessibility to the probe interior for cleaning. Wind tunnel experiments characterised the cut size of sampled droplets and the particle size-dependent transmission efficiency in various parts of the probe. For a range of counter-flow rates and air velocities, the measured cut size was between 8.7–13.1 μm. The mean percentage error between cut size measurements and predictions from aerodynamic drag theory is 1.7%. The CVI was deployed on the Center for Interdisciplinary Remotely Piloted Aircraft Studies (CIRPAS) Twin Otter for thirty flights during E-PEACE to study aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions off the central coast of California in July and August 2011. Results are reported to assess the performance of the inlet including comparisons of particle number concentration downstream of the CVI and cloud drop number concentration measured by two independent aircraft probes. Measurements downstream of the CVI are also examined from one representative case flight coordinated with shipboard-emitted smoke that was intercepted in cloud by the Twin Otter.
Clouds play an important role in weather and climate. Therefore, it is important to quantify the dominant processes that influence cloud formation and dissolution. In this study, diagnostics of the ...relative humidity tendency in the ECHAM6 GCM are used to quantify the contribution of different atmospheric processes to the change in relative humidity and thus to quantify their impact on clouds. In the model, we find that the dominant processes are stratiform cloud microphysics, large-scale adiabatic horizontal advection and vertical motion, and cumulus convection. Tendencies calculated based on monthly mean fields approximate the monthly averages of instantaneous tendencies to within 50% in the mid-latitudes and 25% elsewhere. The correlation between the relative humidity tendencies and mid-tropospheric vertical velocity ω
500
is analysed. The most important processes for cloud formation are tightly correlated with ω
500
; the monthly mean vertical velocity in most cases appears qualitatively useful to characterise the cloud-forming and cloud-dissipating processes.
We present the results of a search for anomalous resonant production of tau lepton pairs with large invariant mass, the first such search using the CDF II Detector in Run II of the Tevatron pp ...collider. Such anomalous production could arise from various new physics processes. In a data sample corresponding to 195 pb(-1) of integrated luminosity we predict 2.8+/-0.5 events from standard model background processes and observe 4. We use this result to set limits on the production of heavy scalar and vector particles decaying to tau lepton pairs.
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