Sepsis is one of the most frequent reasons for acute intensive care unit (ICU) admission of very old patients and mortality rates are high. However, the impact of pre-existing physical and cognitive ...function on long-term outcome of ICU patients ≥ 80 years old (very old intensive care patients (VIPs)) with sepsis is unclear.
To investigate both the short- and long-term mortality of VIPs admitted with sepsis and assess the relation of mortality with pre-existing physical and cognitive function.
Prospective cohort study.
241 ICUs from 22 European countries in a six-month period between May 2018 and May 2019.
Acutely admitted ICU patients aged ≥80 years with sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score ≥ 2.
Sepsis was defined according to the sepsis 3.0 criteria. Patients with sepsis as an admission diagnosis were compared with other acutely admitted patients. In addition to patients' characteristics, disease severity, information about comorbidity and polypharmacy and pre-existing physical and cognitive function were collected.
Out of 3,596 acutely admitted VIPs with SOFA score ≥ 2, a group of 532 patients with sepsis were compared to other admissions. Predictors for 6-month mortality were age (per 5 years): Hazard ratio (HR, 1.16 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.09-1.25, P < 0.0001), SOFA (per one-point): HR, 1.16 (95% CI, 1.14-1.17, P < 0.0001) and frailty (CFS > 4): HR, 1.34 (95% CI, 1.18-1.51, P < 0.0001).
There is substantial long-term mortality in VIPs admitted with sepsis. Frailty, age and disease severity were identified as predictors of long-term mortality in VIPs admitted with sepsis.
Treatment guidelines recommend a stepwise approach to primary biliary cholangitis: all patients begin treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) monotherapy and those with an inadequate biochemical ...response after 12 months are subsequently considered for second-line therapies. However, as a result, patients at the highest risk can wait the longest for effective treatment. We determined whether UDCA response can be accurately predicted using pretreatment clinical parameters.
We did logistic regression analysis of pretreatment variables in a discovery cohort of patients in the UK with primary biliary cholangitis to derive the best-fitting model of UDCA response, defined as alkaline phosphatase less than 1·67 times the upper limit of normal (ULN), measured after 12 months of treatment with UDCA. We validated the model in an external cohort of patients with primary biliary cholangitis and treated with UDCA in Italy. Additionally, we assessed correlations between model predictions and key histological features, such as biliary injury and fibrosis, on liver biopsy samples.
2703 participants diagnosed with primary biliary cholangitis between Jan 1, 1998, and May 31, 2015, were included in the UK-PBC cohort for derivation of the model. The following pretreatment parameters were associated with lower probability of UDCA response: higher alkaline phosphatase concentration (p<0·0001), higher total bilirubin concentration (p=0·0003), lower aminotransferase concentration (p=0·0012), younger age (p<0·0001), longer interval from diagnosis to the start of UDCA treatment (treatment time lag, p<0·0001), and worsening of alkaline phosphatase concentration from diagnosis (p<0·0001). Based on these variables, we derived a predictive score of UDCA response. In the external validation cohort, 460 patients diagnosed with primary biliary cholangitis were treated with UDCA, with follow-up data until May 31, 2016. In this validation cohort, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the score was 0·83 (95% CI 0·79-0·87). In 20 liver biopsy samples from patients with primary biliary cholangitis, the UDCA response score was associated with ductular reaction (r=-0·556, p=0·0130) and intermediate hepatocytes (probability of response was 0·90 if intermediate hepatocytes were absent vs 0·51 if present).
We have derived and externally validated a model based on pretreatment variables that accurately predicts UDCA response. Association with histological features provides face validity. This model provides a basis to explore alternative approaches to treatment stratification in patients with primary biliary cholangitis.
UK Medical Research Council and University of Milan-Bicocca.
Background
Premorbid conditions influence the outcome of acutely ill adult patients aged 80 years and over who are admitted to the ICU. The aim of this study was to determine the influence of such ...premorbid conditions on 6 month survival.
Methods
Prospective cohort study in 242 ICUs from 22 countries including patients 80 years or above, admitted over a 6 months period to an ICU between May 2018 and May 2019. Only emergency (acute) ICU admissions in adult patients ≥ 80 years of age were eligible. Patients who were admitted after planned/elective surgery were excluded. We measured the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), the Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE), disability with the Katz activities of daily living (ADL) score, comorbidities and a Polypharmacy Score (CPS).
Results
Overall, the VIP2 study included 3920 patients. During ICU stay 1191 patients died (30.9%), and another 436 patients (11.1%) died after ICU discharge but within the first 30 days of admission, and an additional 895 patients died hereafter but within the first 6 months after admission (22.8%). The 6 months mortality was 64%. The median CFS was 4 (IQR 3–6). Frailty (CFS ≥ 5) was present in 26.6%. Cognitive decline (IQCODE above 3.5) was found in 30.2%. The median IQCODE was 3.19. A Katz ADL of 4 or less was present in 27.7%. Patients who surviving > 6 months were slightly younger (median age survivors 84 with IQR 81–86) than patients dying within the first 6 months (median age 84, IQR 82–87,
p
= 0.013), were less frequently frail (CFS > 5 in 19% versus 34%,
p
< 0.01) and were less dependent based on their Katz activities of daily living measurement (median Katz score 6, IQR 5–6 versus 6 points, IQR 3–6,
p
< 0.01).
Conclusions
We found that Clinical Frailty Scale, age, and SOFA at admission were independent prognostic factors for 6 month mortality after ICU admission in patients age 80 and above. Adding other geriatric syndromes and scores did not improve the model. This information can be used in shared-decision making.
ClinicalTrials.gov
: NCT03370692.
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