Summary Background Pathological waves of spreading mass neuronal depolarisation arise repeatedly in injured, but potentially salvageable, grey matter in 50–60% of patients after traumatic brain ...injury (TBI). We aimed to ascertain whether spreading depolarisations are independently associated with unfavourable neurological outcome. Methods We did a prospective, observational, multicentre study at seven neurological centres. We enrolled 109 adults who needed neurosurgery for acute TBI. Spreading depolarisations were monitored by electrocorticography during intensive care and were classified as cortical spreading depression (CSD) if they took place in spontaneously active cortex or as isoelectric spreading depolarisation (ISD) if they took place in isoelectric cortex. Investigators who treated patients and assessed outcome were masked to electrocorticographic results. Scores on the extended Glasgow outcome scale at 6 months were fitted to a multivariate model by ordinal regression. Prognostic score (based on variables at admission, as validated by the IMPACT studies) and spreading depolarisation category (none, CSD only, or at least one ISD) were assessed as outcome predictors. Findings Six individuals were excluded because of poor-quality electrocorticography. A total of 1328 spreading depolarisations arose in 58 (56%) patients. In 38 participants, all spreading depolarisations were classified as CSD; 20 patients had at least one ISD. By multivariate analysis, both prognostic score (p=0·0009) and spreading depolarisation category (p=0·0008) were significant predictors of neurological outcome. CSD and ISD were associated with an increased risk of unfavourable outcome (common odds ratios 1·56 95% CI 0·72–3·37 and 7·58 2·64–21·8, respectively). Addition of depolarisation category to the regression model increased the proportion of variance in outcome that could be attributed to predictors from 9% to 22%, compared with the prognostic score alone. Interpretation Spreading depolarisations were associated with unfavourable outcome, after controlling for conventional prognostic variables. The possibility that spreading depolarisations have adverse effects on the traumatically injured brain, and therefore might be a target in the treatment of TBI, deserves further research. Funding US Army CDMRP PH/TBI research programme.
The effect of decompressive craniectomy on clinical outcomes in patients with refractory traumatic intracranial hypertension remains unclear.
From 2004 through 2014, we randomly assigned 408 ...patients, 10 to 65 years of age, with traumatic brain injury and refractory elevated intracranial pressure (>25 mm Hg) to undergo decompressive craniectomy or receive ongoing medical care. The primary outcome was the rating on the Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS-E) (an 8-point scale, ranging from death to "upper good recovery" no injury-related problems) at 6 months. The primary-outcome measure was analyzed with an ordinal method based on the proportional-odds model. If the model was rejected, that would indicate a significant difference in the GOS-E distribution, and results would be reported descriptively.
The GOS-E distribution differed between the two groups (P<0.001). The proportional-odds assumption was rejected, and therefore results are reported descriptively. At 6 months, the GOS-E distributions were as follows: death, 26.9% among 201 patients in the surgical group versus 48.9% among 188 patients in the medical group; vegetative state, 8.5% versus 2.1%; lower severe disability (dependent on others for care), 21.9% versus 14.4%; upper severe disability (independent at home), 15.4% versus 8.0%; moderate disability, 23.4% versus 19.7%; and good recovery, 4.0% versus 6.9%. At 12 months, the GOS-E distributions were as follows: death, 30.4% among 194 surgical patients versus 52.0% among 179 medical patients; vegetative state, 6.2% versus 1.7%; lower severe disability, 18.0% versus 14.0%; upper severe disability, 13.4% versus 3.9%; moderate disability, 22.2% versus 20.1%; and good recovery, 9.8% versus 8.4%. Surgical patients had fewer hours than medical patients with intracranial pressure above 25 mm Hg after randomization (median, 5.0 vs. 17.0 hours; P<0.001) but had a higher rate of adverse events (16.3% vs. 9.2%, P=0.03).
At 6 months, decompressive craniectomy in patients with traumatic brain injury and refractory intracranial hypertension resulted in lower mortality and higher rates of vegetative state, lower severe disability, and upper severe disability than medical care. The rates of moderate disability and good recovery were similar in the two groups. (Funded by the Medical Research Council and others; RESCUEicp Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN66202560 .).
A low ankle brachial index (ABI) indicates atherosclerosis and an increased risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events. Screening for a low ABI can identify an asymptomatic higher risk group ...potentially amenable to preventive treatments.
To determine the effectiveness of aspirin in preventing events in people with a low ABI identified on screening the general population.
The Aspirin for Asymptomatic Atherosclerosis trial was an intention-to-treat double-blind randomized controlled trial conducted from April 1998 to October 2008, involving 28,980 men and women aged 50 to 75 years living in central Scotland, free of clinical cardiovascular disease, recruited from a community health registry, and had an ABI screening test. Of those, 3350 with a low ABI (< or = 0.95) were entered into the trial, which was powered to detect a 25% proportional risk reduction in events.
Once daily 100 mg aspirin (enteric coated) or placebo.
The primary end point was a composite of initial fatal or nonfatal coronary event or stroke or revascularization. Two secondary end points were (1) all initial vascular events defined as a composite of a primary end point event or angina, intermittent claudication, or transient ischemic attack; and (2) all-cause mortality.
After a mean (SD) follow-up of 8.2 (1.6) years, 357 participants had a primary end point event (13.5 per 1000 person-years, 95% confidence interval CI, 12.2-15.0). No statistically significant difference was found between groups (13.7 events per 1000 person-years in the aspirin group vs 13.3 in the placebo group; hazard ratio HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.84-1.27). A vascular event comprising the secondary end point occurred in 578 participants (22.8 per 1000 person-years; 95% CI, 21.0-24.8) and no statistically significant difference between groups (22.8 events per 1000 person-years in the aspirin group vs 22.9 in the placebo group; HR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.85-1.17). There was no significant difference in all-cause mortality between groups (176 vs 186 deaths, respectively; HR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.77-1.16). An initial event of major hemorrhage requiring admission to hospital occurred in 34 participants (2.5 per 1000 person-years) in the aspirin group and 20 (1.5 per 1000 person-years) in the placebo group (HR, 1.71; 95% CI, 0.99-2.97).
Among participants without clinical cardiovascular disease, identified with a low ABI based on screening a general population, the administration of aspirin compared with placebo did not result in a significant reduction in vascular events.
isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN66587262.
In patients with traumatic brain injury, hypothermia can reduce intracranial hypertension. The benefit of hypothermia on functional outcome is unclear.
We randomly assigned adults with an ...intracranial pressure of more than 20 mm Hg despite stage 1 treatments (including mechanical ventilation and sedation management) to standard care (control group) or hypothermia (32 to 35°C) plus standard care. In the control group, stage 2 treatments (e.g., osmotherapy) were added as needed to control intracranial pressure. In the hypothermia group, stage 2 treatments were added only if hypothermia failed to control intracranial pressure. In both groups, stage 3 treatments (barbiturates and decompressive craniectomy) were used if all stage 2 treatments failed to control intracranial pressure. The primary outcome was the score on the Extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS-E; range, 1 to 8, with lower scores indicating a worse functional outcome) at 6 months. The treatment effect was estimated with ordinal logistic regression adjusted for prespecified prognostic factors and expressed as a common odds ratio (with an odds ratio <1.0 favoring hypothermia).
We enrolled 387 patients at 47 centers in 18 countries from November 2009 through October 2014, at which time recruitment was suspended owing to safety concerns. Stage 3 treatments were required to control intracranial pressure in 54% of the patients in the control group and in 44% of the patients in the hypothermia group. The adjusted common odds ratio for the GOS-E score was 1.53 (95% confidence interval, 1.02 to 2.30; P=0.04), indicating a worse outcome in the hypothermia group than in the control group. A favorable outcome (GOS-E score of 5 to 8, indicating moderate disability or good recovery) occurred in 26% of the patients in the hypothermia group and in 37% of the patients in the control group (P=0.03).
In patients with an intracranial pressure of more than 20 mm Hg after traumatic brain injury, therapeutic hypothermia plus standard care to reduce intracranial pressure did not result in outcomes better than those with standard care alone. (Funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment program; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN34555414.).
Rigorous, informative meta-analyses rely on availability of appropriate summary statistics or individual participant data. For continuous outcomes, especially those with naturally skewed ...distributions, summary information on the mean or variability often goes unreported. While full reporting of original trial data is the ideal, we sought to identify methods for handling unreported mean or variability summary statistics in meta-analysis.
We undertook two systematic literature reviews to identify methodological approaches used to deal with missing mean or variability summary statistics. Five electronic databases were searched, in addition to the Cochrane Colloquium abstract books and the Cochrane Statistics Methods Group mailing list archive. We also conducted cited reference searching and emailed topic experts to identify recent methodological developments. Details recorded included the description of the method, the information required to implement the method, any underlying assumptions and whether the method could be readily applied in standard statistical software. We provided a summary description of the methods identified, illustrating selected methods in example meta-analysis scenarios.
For missing standard deviations (SDs), following screening of 503 articles, fifteen methods were identified in addition to those reported in a previous review. These included Bayesian hierarchical modelling at the meta-analysis level; summary statistic level imputation based on observed SD values from other trials in the meta-analysis; a practical approximation based on the range; and algebraic estimation of the SD based on other summary statistics. Following screening of 1124 articles for methods estimating the mean, one approximate Bayesian computation approach and three papers based on alternative summary statistics were identified. Illustrative meta-analyses showed that when replacing a missing SD the approximation using the range minimised loss of precision and generally performed better than omitting trials. When estimating missing means, a formula using the median, lower quartile and upper quartile performed best in preserving the precision of the meta-analysis findings, although in some scenarios, omitting trials gave superior results.
Methods based on summary statistics (minimum, maximum, lower quartile, upper quartile, median) reported in the literature facilitate more comprehensive inclusion of randomised controlled trials with missing mean or variability summary statistics within meta-analyses.
Summary Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a heterogeneous condition that encompasses a broad spectrum of disorders. Outcome can be highly variable, particularly in more severely injured patients. ...Despite the association of many variables with outcome, prognostic predictions are notoriously difficult to make. Multivariable analysis has identified age, clinical severity, CT abnormalities, systemic insults (hypoxia and hypotension), and laboratory variables as relevant factors to include in models to predict outcome in individual patients. Advances in statistical modelling and the availability of large datasets have facilitated the development of prognostic models that have greater performance and generalisability. Two prediction models are currently available, both of which have been developed on large datasets with state-of-the-art methods, and offer new opportunities. We see great potential for their use in clinical practice, research, and policy making, as well as for assessment of the quality of health-care delivery. Continued development, refinement, and validation is advocated, together with assessment of the clinical impact of prediction models, including treatment response.
Summary Background Cerebral cavernous malformations (CCMs) can cause symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage (ICH), but the estimated risks are imprecise and predictors remain uncertain. We aimed to ...obtain precise estimates and predictors of the risk of ICH during untreated follow-up in an individual patient data meta-analysis. Methods We invited investigators of published cohorts of people aged at least 16 years, identified by a systematic review of Ovid MEDLINE and Embase from inception to April 30, 2015, to provide individual patient data on clinical course from CCM diagnosis until first CCM treatment or last available follow-up. We used survival analysis to estimate the 5-year risk of symptomatic ICH due to CCMs (primary outcome), multivariable Cox regression to identify baseline predictors of outcome, and random-effects models to pool estimates in a meta-analysis. Findings Among 1620 people in seven cohorts from six studies, 204 experienced ICH during 5197 person-years of follow-up (Kaplan-Meier estimated 5-year risk 15·8%, 95% CI 13·7–17·9). The primary outcome of ICH within 5 years of CCM diagnosis was associated with clinical presentation with ICH or new focal neurological deficit (FND) without brain imaging evidence of recent haemorrhage versus other modes of presentation (hazard ratio 5·6, 95% CI 3·2–9·7) and with brainstem CCM location versus other locations (4·4, 2·3–8·6), but age, sex, and CCM multiplicity did not add independent prognostic information. The 5-year estimated risk of ICH during untreated follow-up was 3·8% (95% CI 2·1–5·5) for 718 people with non-brainstem CCM presenting without ICH or FND, 8·0% (0·1–15·9) for 80 people with brainstem CCM presenting without ICH or FND, 18·4% (13·3–23·5) for 327 people with non-brainstem CCM presenting with ICH or FND, and 30·8% (26·3–35·2) for 495 people with brainstem CCM presenting with ICH or FND. Interpretation Mode of clinical presentation and CCM location are independently associated with ICH within 5 years of CCM diagnosis. These findings can inform decisions about CCM treatment. Funding UK Medical Research Council, Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government, and UK Stroke Association.
Diaphragm atrophy and dysfunction have been reported in humans during mechanical ventilation, but the prevalence, causes, and functional impact of changes in diaphragm thickness during routine ...mechanical ventilation for critically ill patients are unknown.
To describe the evolution of diaphragm thickness over time during mechanical ventilation, its impact on diaphragm function, and the influence of inspiratory effort on this phenomenon.
In three academic intensive care units, 107 patients were enrolled shortly after initiating ventilation along with 10 nonventilated intensive care unit patients (control subjects). Diaphragm thickness and contractile activity (quantified by the inspiratory thickening fraction) were measured daily by ultrasound.
Over the first week of ventilation, diaphragm thickness decreased by more than 10% in 47 (44%), was unchanged in 47 (44%), and increased by more than 10% in 13 (12%). Thickness did not vary over time following extubation or in nonventilated patients. Low diaphragm contractile activity was associated with rapid decreases in diaphragm thickness, whereas high contractile activity was associated with increases in diaphragm thickness (P = 0.002). Contractile activity decreased with increasing ventilator driving pressure (P = 0.01) and controlled ventilator modes (P = 0.02). Maximal thickening fraction (a measure of diaphragm function) was lower in patients with decreased or increased diaphragm thickness (n = 10) compared with patients with unchanged thickness (n = 10; P = 0.05 for comparison).
Changes in diaphragm thickness are common during mechanical ventilation and may be associated with diaphragmatic weakness. Titrating ventilatory support to maintain normal levels of inspiratory effort may prevent changes in diaphragm configuration associated with mechanical ventilation.
The relationship between levels of circulating inflammatory markers and risk of progressive atherosclerosis is relatively undetermined. We therefore studied inflammatory markers as predictors of ...peripheral atherosclerotic progression, measured by the ankle-brachial index (ABI) at 3 consecutive time points over 12 years.
The Edinburgh Artery Study is a population cohort study of 1592 men and women aged 55 to 74 years. C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1), vascular adhesion molecule-1 (VCAM-1), and E-selectin were measured at baseline. Valid ABI measurements were obtained on 1582, 1081, and 813 participants at baseline and 5-year and 12-year follow-up examinations, respectively. At baseline, a significant trend was found between higher plasma levels of CRP (P< or =0.05) and increasing severity of peripheral arterial disease (PAD), after adjustment for baseline cardiovascular risk factors. IL-6 at baseline (P< or =0.001) was associated with progressive atherosclerosis at 5 years (ABI change from baseline), and CRP (P< or =0.01), IL-6 (P< or =0.001), and ICAM-1 (P< or =0.01) were associated with changes at 12 years, independently of baseline ABI, cardiovascular risk factors, and baseline cardiovascular disease. Only IL-6 independently predicted ABI change at 5 years (P< or =0.01) and 12 years (P< or =0.05) in analyses of all inflammatory markers simultaneously and adjusted for baseline ABI, cardiovascular risk factors, and cardiovascular disease at baseline.
These findings suggest that CRP, IL-6, and ICAM-1 are molecular markers associated with atherosclerosis and its progression. IL-6 showed more consistent results and stronger independent predictive value than other inflammatory markers.
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