Atmospheric methane grew very rapidly in 2014 (12.7 ± 0.5 ppb/year), 2015 (10.1 ± 0.7 ppb/year), 2016 (7.0 ± 0.7 ppb/year), and 2017 (7.7 ± 0.7 ppb/year), at rates not observed since the 1980s. The ...increase in the methane burden began in 2007, with the mean global mole fraction in remote surface background air rising from about 1,775 ppb in 2006 to 1,850 ppb in 2017. Simultaneously the 13C/12C isotopic ratio (expressed as δ13CCH4) has shifted, now trending negative for more than a decade. The causes of methane's recent mole fraction increase are therefore either a change in the relative proportions (and totals) of emissions from biogenic and thermogenic and pyrogenic sources, especially in the tropics and subtropics, or a decline in the atmospheric sink of methane, or both. Unfortunately, with limited measurement data sets, it is not currently possible to be more definitive. The climate warming impact of the observed methane increase over the past decade, if continued at >5 ppb/year in the coming decades, is sufficient to challenge the Paris Agreement, which requires sharp cuts in the atmospheric methane burden. However, anthropogenic methane emissions are relatively very large and thus offer attractive targets for rapid reduction, which are essential if the Paris Agreement aims are to be attained.
Plain Language Summary
The rise in atmospheric methane (CH4), which began in 2007, accelerated in the past 4 years. The growth has been worldwide, especially in the tropics and northern midlatitudes. With the rise has come a shift in the carbon isotope ratio of the methane. The causes of the rise are not fully understood, and may include increased emissions and perhaps a decline in the destruction of methane in the air. Methane's increase since 2007 was not expected in future greenhouse gas scenarios compliant with the targets of the Paris Agreement, and if the increase continues at the same rates it may become very difficult to meet the Paris goals. There is now urgent need to reduce methane emissions, especially from the fossil fuel industry.
Key Points
Atmospheric methane is rising; its carbon isotopic ratio has become more depleted in C‐13
The possible causes of the change include an increase in emissions, with changing relative proportions of source inputs, or a decline in methane destruction, or both
If this rise continues, there are significant consequences for the UN Paris Agreement
European scale harmonized monitoring of atmospheric composition was initiated in the early 1970s, and the activity has generated a comprehensive dataset (available at http://www.emep.int) which ...allows the evaluation of regional and spatial trends of air pollution during a period of nearly 40 yr. Results from the monitoring made within EMEP, the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme, show large reductions in ambient concentrations and deposition of sulphur species during the last decades. Reductions are in the order of 70–90% since the year 1980, and correspond well with reported emission changes. Also reduction in emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) are reflected in the measurements, with an average decrease of nitrogen dioxide and nitrate in precipitation by about 23% and 25% respectively since 1990. Only minor reductions are however seen since the late 1990s. The concentrations of total nitrate in air have decreased on average only by 8% since 1990, and fewer sites show a significant trend. A majority of the EMEP sites show a decreasing trend in reduced nitrogen both in air and precipitation on the order of 25% since 1990. Deposition of base cations has decreased during the past 30 yr, and the pH in precipitation has increased across Europe. Large inter annual variations in the particulate matter mass concentrations reflect meteorological variability, but still there is a relatively clear overall decrease at several sites during the last decade. With few observations going back to the 1990s, the observed chemical composition is applied to document a change in particulate matter (PM) mass even since 1980. These data indicate an overall reduction of about 5 μg m−3 from sulphate alone. Despite the significant reductions in sulphur emissions, sulphate still remains one of the single most important compounds contributing to regional scale aerosol mass concentration. Long-term ozone trends at EMEP sites show a mixed pattern. The year-to-year variability in ozone due to varying meteorological conditions is substantial, making it hard to separate the trends caused by emission change from other effects. For the Nordic countries the data indicate a reduced occurrence of very low concentrations. The most pronounced change in the frequency distribution is seen at sites in the UK and the Netherlands, showing a reduction in the higher values. Smaller changes are seen in Germany, while in Switzerland and Austria, no change is seen in the frequency distribution of ozone. The lack of long-term data series is a major obstacle for studying trends in volatile organic compounds (VOC). The scatter in the data is large, and significant changes are only found for certain components and stations. Concentrations of the heavy metals lead and cadmium have decreased in both air and precipitation during the last 20 yr, with reductions in the order of 80–90% for Pb and 64–84% for Cd (precipitation and air respectively). The measurements of total gaseous mercury indicate a dramatic decrease in concentrations during 1980 to about 1993. Trends in hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) show a significant decrease in annual average air concentrations. For other persistent organic pollutants (POPs) the patterns is mixed, and differs between sites and between measurements in air versus precipitation.
We find that summer methane (CH4) release from seabed sediments west of Svalbard substantially increases CH4 concentrations in the ocean but has limited influence on the atmospheric CH4 levels. Our ...conclusion stems from complementary measurements at the seafloor, in the ocean, and in the atmosphere from land‐based, ship and aircraft platforms during a summer campaign in 2014. We detected high concentrations of dissolved CH4 in the ocean above the seafloor with a sharp decrease above the pycnocline. Model approaches taking potential CH4 emissions from both dissolved and bubble‐released CH4 from a larger region into account reveal a maximum flux compatible with the observed atmospheric CH4 mixing ratios of 2.4–3.8 nmol m−2 s−1. This is too low to have an impact on the atmospheric summer CH4 budget in the year 2014. Long‐term ocean observatories may shed light on the complex variations of Arctic CH4 cycles throughout the year.
Key Points
Summer CH4 release from seabed sediments west of Svalbard substantially increases concentrations in the ocean, but not in the atmosphere
The modeled flux is constrained to a maximum of 2.4 to 3.8 nmol m−2 s−1, compatible with the observed atmospheric CH4 from 20 June to 1 August 2014
Any ocean‐atmosphere flux of the CH4 accumulated beneath the pycnocline may only occur if physical processes remove this dynamic barrier
Levoglucosan, a highly specific tracer of particulate matter from biomass burning, has been used to study the influence of residential wood burning, agricultural waste burning and Boreal forest fire ...emissions on the Arctic atmosphere black carbon (BC) concentration. A one-year time series from March 2008 to March 2009 of levoglucosan has been established at the Zeppelin observatory in the European Arctic. Elevated concentrations of levoglucosan in winter (mean: 1.02 ng m−3) compared to summer (mean: 0.13 ng m−3) were observed, resembling the seasonal variation seen for e.g. sulfate and BC. The mean concentration in the winter period was 2–3 orders of magnitude lower than typical values reported for European urban areas in winter, and 1–2 orders of magnitude lower than European rural background concentrations. Episodes of elevated levoglucosan concentration lasting from 1 to 6 days were more frequent in winter than in summer and peak values were higher, exceeding 10 ng m−3 at the most. Concentrations of elemental carbon from biomass burning (ECbb) were obtained by combining measured concentrations of levoglucosan and emission ratios of levoglucosan and EC for wildfires/agricultural fires and for residential wood burning. Neglecting chemical degradation by OH provides minimum levoglucosan concentrations, corresponding to a mean ECbb concentration of 3.7 ± 1.2 ng m−3 in winter (October–April) and 0.8 ± 0.3 ng m−3 in summer (May–September), or 8.8 ± 4.5% of the measured equivalent black carbon (EBC) concentration in winter and 6.1 ± 3.4% in summer. When accounting for chemical degradation of levoglucosan by OH, an upper estimate of 31–45% of EBC could be attributed to ECbb* (ECbb adjusted for chemical degradation) in winter, whereas no reliable (<100%) upper estimate could be provided for summer for the degradation rates applied. Hence, fossil fuel sources appear to dominate the European Arctic BC concentrations in winter, whereas the very wide range obtained for summer does not allow us to conclude upon this for the warm season. Calculations using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART show that the seasonal variation of the modeled ECbb (ECbb,m) concentration compared relatively well with observationally derived ECbb from agricultural fires/wildfires during summer, and residential wood burning in winter. The model overestimates by a factor of 2.2 in winter and 4.4 in summer when compared to the observationally derived mean ECbb concentration, which provides the minimum estimate, whereas it underestimates by a factor of 2.3–3.3 in winter and a factor of 4.5 in summer when compared to ECbb*, which provides the upper estimate. There are indications of too-low emissions of residential wood burning in northern Russia, a region of great importance with respect to observed concentrations of BC in the European Arctic.
By comparison of the methane mixing ratio and the carbon isotope ratio (δ13CCH4) in Arctic air with regional background, the incremental input of CH4 in an air parcel and the source δ13CCH4 signature ...can be determined. Using this technique the bulk Arctic CH4 source signature of air arriving at Spitsbergen in late summer 2008 and 2009 was found to be −68‰, indicative of the dominance of a biogenic CH4 source. This is close to the source signature of CH4 emissions from boreal wetlands. In spring, when wetland was frozen, the CH4 source signature was more enriched in 13C at −53 ± 6‰ with air mass back trajectories indicating a large influence from gas field emissions in the Ob River region. Emissions of CH4 to the water column from the seabed on the Spitsbergen continental slope are occurring but none has yet been detected reaching the atmosphere. The measurements illustrate the significance of wetland emissions. Potentially, these may respond quickly and powerfully to meteorological variations and to sustained climate warming.
Key Points
Isotopic measurements have been used to identify major sources of Arctic methane
In late summer biogenic methane sources dominate the bulk Arctic source mix
Seabed emissions near Spitsbergen have not been detected reaching the atmosphere
Currently many ground-based atmospheric stations include in-situ measurements of aerosol physical and optical properties, resulting in more than 20 long-term (> 10 yr) aerosol measurement sites in ...the Northern Hemisphere and Antarctica. Most of these sites are located at remote locations and monitor the aerosol particle number concentration, wavelength-dependent light scattering, backscattering, and absorption coefficients. The existence of these multi-year datasets enables the analysis of long-term trends of these aerosol parameters, and of the derived light scattering Ångström exponent and backscatter fraction. Since the aerosol variables are not normally distributed, three different methods (the seasonal Mann-Kendall test associated with the Sen's slope, the generalized least squares fit associated with an autoregressive bootstrap algorithm for confidence intervals, and the least-mean square fit applied to logarithms of the data) were applied to detect the long-term trends and their magnitudes. To allow a comparison among measurement sites, trends on the most recent 10 and 15 yr periods were calculated. No significant trends were found for the three continental European sites. Statistically significant trends were found for the two European marine sites but the signs of the trends varied with aerosol property and location. Statistically significant decreasing trends for both scattering and absorption coefficients (mean slope of −2.0% yr−1) were found for most North American stations, although positive trends were found for a few desert and high-altitude sites. The difference in the timing of emission reduction policy for the Europe and US continents is a likely explanation for the decreasing trends in aerosol optical parameters found for most American sites compared to the lack of trends observed in Europe. No significant trends in scattering coefficient were found for the Arctic or Antarctic stations, whereas the Arctic station had a negative trend in absorption coefficient. The high altitude Pacific island station of Mauna Loa presents positive trends for both scattering and absorption coefficients.
Over the past few decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and air pollution regulations. Here, ...we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990-2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The models broadly reproduce large-scale changes in surface aerosol and ozone based on observations (e.g. 1 to 3 percent per year in aerosols over the USA and Europe). The global mean radiative forcing due to ozone and aerosol changes over the 1990-2015 period increased by 0.17 plus or minus 0.08 watts per square meter, with approximately one-third due to ozone. This increase is more strongly positive than that reported in IPCC AR5 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report). The main reasons for the increased positive radiative forcing of aerosols over this period are the substantial reduction of global mean SO2 emissions, which is stronger in the new emission inventory compared to that used in the IPCC analysis, and higher black carbon emissions.
Methane stored in seabed reservoirs such as methane hydrates can reach the atmosphere in the form of bubbles or dissolved in water. Hydrates could destabilize with rising temperature further ...increasing greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate. To assess the impact of oceanic emissions from the area west of Svalbard, where methane hydrates are abundant, we used measurements collected with a research aircraft (Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements) and a ship (Helmer Hansen) during the Summer 2014 and for Zeppelin Observatory for the full year. We present a model‐supported analysis of the atmospheric CH4 mixing ratios measured by the different platforms. To address uncertainty about where CH4 emissions actually occur, we explored three scenarios: areas with known seeps, a hydrate stability model, and an ocean depth criterion. We then used a budget analysis and a Lagrangian particle dispersion model to compare measurements taken upwind and downwind of the potential CH4 emission areas. We found small differences between the CH4 mixing ratios measured upwind and downwind of the potential emission areas during the campaign. By taking into account measurement and sampling uncertainties and by determining the sensitivity of the measured mixing ratios to potential oceanic emissions, we provide upper limits for the CH4 fluxes. The CH4 flux during the campaign was small, with an upper limit of 2.5 nmol m−2 s−1 in the stability model scenario. The Zeppelin Observatory data for 2014 suggest CH4 fluxes from the Svalbard continental platform below 0.2 Tg yr−1. All estimates are in the lower range of values previously reported.
Key Points
Measurements around Svalbard show no atmospheric methane (CH4) enhancements from CH4 releases into seawater from the ocean floor
We provide an upper limit for oceanic CH4 emissions compatible with the lack of an observable atmospheric signal
Sea‐air emission fluxes of CH4 are small offshore Svalbard, both for transfer via bubbles and via diffusive flux of dissolved CH4
During the summer of 2018, a widespread drought developed over Northern and Central Europe. The increase in temperature and the reduction of soil moisture have influenced carbon dioxide (CO
2
) ...exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems in various ways, such as a reduction of photosynthesis, changes in ecosystem respiration, or allowing more frequent fires. In this study, we characterize the resulting perturbation of the atmospheric CO
2
seasonal cycles. 2018 has a good coverage of European regions affected by drought, allowing the investigation of how ecosystem flux anomalies impacted spatial CO
2
gradients between stations. This density of stations is unprecedented compared to previous drought events in 2003 and 2015, particularly thanks to the deployment of the Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) network of atmospheric greenhouse gas monitoring stations in recent years. Seasonal CO
2
cycles from 48 European stations were available for 2017 and 2018. Earlier data were retrieved for comparison from international databases or national networks. Here, we show that the usual summer minimum in CO
2
due to the surface carbon uptake was reduced by 1.4 ppm in 2018 for the 10 stations located in the area most affected by the temperature anomaly, mostly in Northern Europe. Notwithstanding, the CO
2
transition phases before and after July were slower in 2018 compared to 2017, suggesting an extension of the growing season, with either continued CO
2
uptake by photosynthesis and/or a reduction in respiration driven by the depletion of substrate for respiration inherited from the previous months due to the drought. For stations with sufficiently long time series, the CO
2
anomaly observed in 2018 was compared to previous European droughts in 2003 and 2015. Considering the areas most affected by the temperature anomalies, we found a higher CO
2
anomaly in 2003 (+3 ppm averaged over 4 sites), and a smaller anomaly in 2015 (+1 ppm averaged over 11 sites) compared to 2018.
This article is part of the theme issue ‘Impacts of the 2018 severe drought and heatwave in Europe: from site to continental scale'.
Following the emergence of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) responsible for COVID-19 in December 2019 in Wuhan (China) and its spread to the rest of the world, the ...World Health Organization declared a global pandemic in March 2020. Without effective treatment in the initial pandemic phase, social distancing and mandatory quarantines were introduced as the only available preventative measure. In contrast to the detrimental societal impacts, air quality improved in all countries in which strict lockdowns were applied, due to lower pollutant emissions. Here we investigate the effects of the COVID-19 lockdowns in Europe on ambient black carbon (BC), which affects climate and damages health, using in situ observations from 17 European stations in a Bayesian inversion framework. BC emissions declined by 23 kt in Europe (20 % in Italy, 40 % in Germany, 34 % in Spain, 22 % in France) during lockdowns compared to the same period in the previous 5 years, which is partially attributed to COVID-19 measures. BC temporal variation in the countries enduring the most drastic restrictions showed the most distinct lockdown impacts. Increased particle light absorption in the beginning of the lockdown, confirmed by assimilated satellite and remote sensing data, suggests residential combustion was the dominant BC source. Accordingly, in central and Eastern Europe, which experienced lower than average temperatures, BC was elevated compared to the previous 5 years. Nevertheless, an average decrease of 11 % was seen for the whole of Europe compared to the start of the lockdown period, with the highest peaks in France (42 %), Germany (21 %), UK (13 %), Spain (11 %) and Italy (8 %). Such a decrease was not seen in the previous years, which also confirms the impact of COVID-19 on the European emissions of BC.
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