We combine the known asymptotic behaviour of the QCD perturbation series expansion, which relates the pole mass of a heavy quark to the MS‾ mass, with the exact series coefficients up to the ...four-loop order to determine the ultimate uncertainty of the top-quark pole mass due to the renormalon divergence. We perform extensive tests of our procedure by varying the number of colours and flavours, as well as the scale of the strong coupling and the MS‾ mass. Including an estimate of the internal bottom and charm quark mass effect, we conclude that this uncertainty is around 110 MeV. We further estimate the additional contribution to the mass relation from the five-loop correction and beyond to be around 300 MeV.
Spectral analysis characterises oscillatory time series behaviours such as cycles, but accurate estimation requires reasonable numbers of observations. At the time of writing, COVID-19 time series ...for many countries are short: pre- and post-lockdown series are shorter still. Accurate estimation of potentially interesting cycles seems beyond reach with such short series. We solve the problem of obtaining accurate estimates from short series by using recent Bayesian spectral fusion methods. We show that transformed daily COVID-19 cases for many countries generally contain three cycles operating at wavelengths of around 2.7, 4.1 and 6.7 days (weekly) and that shorter wavelength cycles are suppressed after lockdown. The pre- and post-lockdown differences suggest that the weekly effect is at least partly due to non-epidemic factors. Unconstrained, new cases grow exponentially, but the internal cyclic structure causes periodic declines. This suggests that lockdown success might only be indicated by four or more daily falls. Spectral learning for epidemic time series contributes to the understanding of the epidemic process and can help evaluate interventions. Spectral fusion is a general technique that can fuse spectra recorded at different sampling rates, which can be applied to a wide range of time series from many disciplines.
Since its emergence in Autumn 2020, the SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern (VOC) B.1.1.7 (WHO label Alpha) rapidly became the dominant lineage across much of Europe. Simultaneously, several other VOCs ...were identified globally. Unlike B.1.1.7, some of these VOCs possess mutations thought to confer partial immune escape. Understanding when and how these additional VOCs pose a threat in settings where B.1.1.7 is currently dominant is vital.
We examine trends in the prevalence of non-B.1.1.7 lineages in London and other English regions using passive-case detection PCR data, cross-sectional community infection surveys, genomic surveillance, and wastewater monitoring. The study period spans from 31st January 2021 to 15th May 2021.
Across data sources, the percentage of non-B.1.1.7 variants has been increasing since late March 2021. This increase was initially driven by a variety of lineages with immune escape. From mid-April, B.1.617.2 (WHO label Delta) spread rapidly, becoming the dominant variant in England by late May.
The outcome of competition between variants depends on a wide range of factors such as intrinsic transmissibility, evasion of prior immunity, demographic specificities and interactions with non-pharmaceutical interventions. The presence and rise of non-B.1.1.7 variants in March likely was driven by importations and some community transmission. There was competition between non-B.1.17 variants which resulted in B.1.617.2 becoming dominant in April and May with considerable community transmission. Our results underscore that early detection of new variants requires a diverse array of data sources in community surveillance. Continued real-time information on the highly dynamic composition and trajectory of different SARS-CoV-2 lineages is essential to future control efforts
National Institute for Health Research, Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, DeepMind, EPSRC, EA Funds programme, Open Philanthropy, Academy of Medical Sciences Bill,Melinda Gates Foundation, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, The Novo Nordisk Foundation, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Community Jameel, Cancer Research UK, Imperial College COVID-19 Research Fund, Medical Research Council, Wellcome Sanger Institute.
For regularly spaced one-dimensional data, wavelet shrinkage has proven to be a compelling method for non-parametric function estimation. We create three new multiscale methods that provide ...wavelet-like transforms both for data arising on graphs and for irregularly spaced spatial data in more than one dimension. The concept of scale still exists within these transforms, but as a continuous quantity rather than dyadic levels. Further, we adapt recent empirical Bayesian shrinkage techniques to enable us to perform multiscale shrinkage for function estimation both on graphs and for irregular spatial data. We demonstrate that our methods perform very well when compared with several other methods for spatial regression for both real and simulated data. Although we concentrate on multiscale shrinkage (regression) we present our new 'wavelet transforms' as generic tools intended to be the basis of methods that might benefit from a multiscale representation of data either on graphs or for irregular spatial data.
This paper defines and studies a new class of non-stationary random processes constructed from discrete non-decimated wavelets which generalizes the Cramér (Fourier) representation of stationary time ...series. We define an evolutionary wavelet spectrum (EWS) which quantifies how process power varies locally over time and scale. We show how the EWS may be rigorously estimated by a smoothed wavelet periodogram and how both these quantities may be inverted to provide an estimable time-localized autocovariance. We illustrate our theory with a pedagogical example based on discrete non-decimated Haar wavelets and also a real medical time series example.
Either intentionally or unintentionally, sub-sampling is a common occurrence in image processing and can lead to aliasing if the highest frequency in the underlying process is higher than the Nyquist ...frequency. Several techniques have already been suggest in order to prevent aliasing from occurring (for example applying anti-aliasing filters), however there is little work describing methods to detect for it. Recently, Eckley and Nason (Biometrika 105(4), 833–848, 2018) developed a test for the absence of aliasing and/or white noise in locally stationary wavelet processes. Following Eckley and Nason (Biometrika 105(4), 833–848, 2018), we derive the corresponding theoretical consequences of sub-sampling a two-dimensional locally stationary wavelet process and develop a procedure to test for the absence of aliasing and/or white noise confounding at a fixed point, demonstrating its effectiveness and use through appropriate simulation studies and an example. In addition, we outline some possibilities for extending these methods further, from images to videos.
We present an update of the Binoth Les Houches Accord (BLHA) to standardise the interface between Monte Carlo programs and codes providing one-loop matrix elements.
This article introduces a new method for the estimation of the intensity of an inhomogeneous one-dimensional Poisson process. The Haar-Fisz transformation transforms a vector of binned Poisson counts ...to approximate normality with variance one. Hence we can use any suitable Gaussian wavelet shrinkage method to estimate the Poisson intensity. Since the Haar-Fisz operator does not commute with the shift operator we can dramatically improve accuracy by always cycle spinning before the Haar-Fisz transform as well as optionally after. Extensive simulations show that our approach usually significantly outperformed state-of-the-art competitors but was occasionally comparable. Our method is fast, simple, automatic, and easy to code. Our technique is applied to the estimation of the intensity of earthquakes in northern California. We show that our technique gives visually similar results to the current state-of-the-art.
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