Research shows that the association between adverse climate conditions and human migration is heterogeneous. One reason for this heterogeneity is the differential vulnerability of
populations
to ...climate change. This includes highly vulnerable, “trapped” populations that are too poor to migrate given deep and persistent poverty, the financial costs of migrating, and the erosion of already fragile economic livelihoods under climate change. Another reason for this heterogeneity is the differential vulnerability of
places
. However, despite the growing list of studies showing that the climate-migration relationship clearly varies across places, there is surprisingly little research on the characteristics of places themselves that trap, or immobilize, populations. Accordingly, we provide the first account of the “holding power” of places in the association between adverse climate conditions and migration flows among 55 districts in Zambia in 2000 and 2010. Methodologically, we combine high-resolution climate information with aggregated census micro data to estimate gravity models of inter-district migration flows. Results reveal that the association between adverse climate conditions and migration is positive only for wealthy migrant-sending districts. In contrast, poor districts are characterized by climate-related immobility. Yet, our findings show that access to migrant networks enables climate-related mobility in the poorest districts, suggesting a viable pathway to overcome mobility constraints. Planners and policy makers need to recognize the holding power of places that can trap populations and develop programs to support in situ adaptation and to facilitate migration to avoid humanitarian emergencies.
To examine an association between climate variability and birth weight in Mali and Kenya in relation to the local agricultural specialization.
We combined health and sociodemographic data from the ...Demographic Health Surveys for Kenya (2008 and 2014) and Mali (2006 and 2012) with detailed data on precipitation, temperature, and vegetation. We analyzed the association between climate variability and birth weight by using multilevel regression models for the most common agricultural specializations: food cropping, cash cropping, and pastoralism.
There are differences in sensitivity to climate among different agricultural communities. An additional 100 millimeters of rainfall during the 12-month period before birth was associated with a 47-gram (P = .001) and 89-gram (P = .10) increase in birth weight for food croppers in Kenya and Mali, respectively. Every additional hot month in food-cropping communities in Kenya was associated with a 71-gram decrease in birth weight (P = .030), likely because of food croppers' limited use of modern agricultural techniques. Overall, cash croppers are least sensitive to climate variability in both countries.
Effective climate change adaptation strategies are essential for protecting and improving health outcomes and should be tailored to local households' livelihood strategies.
Adverse climatic conditions may differentially drive human migration patterns between rural and urban areas, with implications for changes in population composition and density, access to ...infrastructure and resources, and the delivery of essential goods and services. However, there is little empirical evidence to support this notion. In this study, we investigate the relationship between climate shocks and migration between rural and urban areas within Mexico. We combine individual records from the 2000 and 2010 Mexican censuses (
n
= 683,518) with high-resolution climate data from Terra Populus that are linked to census data at the municipality level (
n
= 2321). We measure climate shocks as monthly deviation from a 30-year (1961–1990) long-term climate normal period, and uncover important nonlinearities using quadratic and cubic specifications. Satellite-based measures of urban extents allow us to classify migrant-sending and migrant-receiving municipalities as rural or urban to examine four internal migration patterns: rural-urban, rural-rural, urban-urban, and urban-rural. Among our key findings, results from multilevel models reveal that each additional drought month increases the odds of rural-urban migration by 3.6%. In contrast, the relationship between heat months and rural-urban migration is nonlinear. After a threshold of ~34 heat months is surpassed, the relationship between heat months and rural-urban migration becomes positive and progressively increases in strength. Policy and programmatic interventions may therefore reduce climate induced rural-urban migration in Mexico through rural climate change adaptation initiatives, while also assisting rural migrants in finding employment and housing in urban areas to offset population impacts.
Prior research in the United States has found that liberals are generally more environmentally concerned than conservatives. The present study explores whether conservatives’ opposition to ...environmental protection is solely a U.S. or a universal phenomenon and whether this association is contingent on country-level characteristics, such as development, environmental conditions, and communist history. Employing data for 19 countries from the International Social Survey Program module “Environment II,” this article explores inter-country variations in the relationship between individual conservatism and environmental concern using multilevel modeling with cross-level interactions. The models reveal a number of intriguing associations. Most important, conservatives’ support for environmental protection varies by country. This variation is a function of country-level characteristics. The strongest opposition of conservatives’ toward environmental protection was observed in developed, capitalist nations, with superior environmental conditions. On the other hand, in less developed countries, and countries characterized by poor environmental quality, conservatives are more environmentally concerned than liberals.
Studies investigating migration as a response to climate variability have largely focused on rural locations to the exclusion of urban areas. This lack of urban focus is unfortunate given the sheer ...numbers of urban residents and continuing high levels of urbanization. To begin filling this empirical gap, this study investigates climate change impacts on US-bound migration from rural and urban Mexico, 1986-1999. We employ geostatistical interpolation methods to construct two climate change indices, capturing warm and wet spell duration, based on daily temperature and precipitation readings for 214 weather stations across Mexico. In combination with detailed migration histories obtained from the Mexican Migration Project, we model the influence of climate change on household-level migration from 68 rural and 49 urban municipalities. Results from multilevel event-history models reveal that a temperature warming and excessive precipitation significantly increased international migration during the study period. However, climate change impacts on international migration is only observed for rural areas. Interactions reveal a causal pathway in which temperature (but not precipitation) influences migration patterns through employment in the agricultural sector. As such, climate-related international migration may decline with continued urbanization and the resulting reductions in direct dependence of households on rural agriculture.
Previous research linking climatic variability to Mexico–US migration has been limited to particular social conditions and high migration periods. Using the 2000 and 2010 Mexican censuses, we examine ...this association across a broader set of contexts of emigration and reception. We find that adverse weather conditions—high temperatures or low rainfall relative to local/seasonal normal levels—are associated, not with higher, but with lower US-bound migration from most of rural Mexico and under most climatic conditions. However, we find some climate-related migration from the least and most marginalized municipalities, as well as from districts with the highest historical migration intensities. Our findings comparing these relationships across periods suggest that climate migration is affected by reception conditions in the US to a similar or lesser degree than other forms of migration. Altogether, these results suggest that rural Mexico is unlikely to produce many international "climate refugees," and that this low likelihood is not heavily influenced by US immigration policy.
Climate Mobility and Development Cooperation Stojanov, Robert; Rosengaertner, Sarah; de Sherbinin, Alex ...
Population and environment,
12/2021, Letnik:
43, Številka:
2
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Development cooperation actors have been addressing climate change as a cross-cutting issue and investing in climate adaptation projects since the early 2000s. More recently, as concern has risen ...about the potential impacts of climate variability and change on human mobility, development cooperation actors have begun to design projects that intentionally address the drivers of migration, including climate impacts on livelihoods. However, to date, we know little about the development cooperation’s role and function in responding to climate related mobility and migration. As such, the main aim of this paper is to outline the policy frameworks and approaches shaping development cooperation actors’ engagement and to identify areas for further exploration and investment. First, we frame the concept of climate mobility and migration and discuss some applicable policy frameworks that govern the issue from various perspectives; secondly, we review the toolbox of approaches that development cooperation actors bring to climate mobility; and third, we discuss the implications of the current Covid-19 pandemic and identify avenues for the way forward. We conclude that ensuring safe and orderly mobility and the decent reception and long-term inclusion of migrants and displaced persons under conditions of more severe climate hazards, and in the context of rising nationalism and xenophobia, poses significant challenges. Integrated approaches across multiple policy sectors and levels of governance are needed. In addition to resources, development cooperation actors can bring data to help empower the most affected communities and regions and leverage their convening power to foster more coordinated approaches within and across countries.
•We model the impact of climate change on international migration from rural Mexico.•We employ a novel set of 15 ETCCDI climate change indices based on daily climate data.•We examine the influence of ...social networks on climate change related migration.•Warming temperatures and declining precipitation increase international migration.•Access to social networks weakens the climate change migration association.
Increasing rates of climate migration may be of economic and national concern to sending and destination countries. It has been argued that social networks—the ties connecting an origin and destination—may operate as “migration corridors” with the potential to strongly facilitate climate change-related migration. This study investigates whether social networks at the household and community levels amplify or suppress the impact of climate change on international migration from rural Mexico. A novel set of 15 climate change indices was generated based on daily temperature and precipitation data for 214 weather stations across Mexico. Employing geostatistical interpolation techniques, the climate change values were linked to 68 rural municipalities for which sociodemographic data and detailed migration histories were available from the Mexican Migration Project. Multi-level discrete-time event-history models were used to investigate the effect of climate change on international migration between 1986 and 1999. At the household level, the effect of social networks was approximated by comparing the first to the last move, assuming that through the first move a household establishes internal social capital. At the community level, the impact of social capital was explored through interactions with a measure of the proportion of adults with migration experience. The results show that rather than amplifying, social capital may suppress the sensitivity of migration to climate triggers, suggesting that social networks could facilitate climate change adaptation in place.
Environmental inequality scholarship has paid little attention to the disproportional exposure of immigrants in the United States (U.S.) to unfavorable environmental conditions. This study ...investigates whether new international migrants in the U.S. are exposed to environmental hazards and how this pattern varies among immigrant subpopulations (e.g., Hispanics, Asian, European). We combine sociodemographic information from the American Community Survey with toxicity-weighted chemical concentrations (Toxics Release Inventory) to model the relationship between toxin exposure and the relative population of recent immigrants across Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs, n = 2054) during 2005–2011. Results from spatial panel models show that immigrants tend to be less exposed to toxins, suggesting resilience instead of vulnerability. This pattern was pronounced among immigrants from Europe and Latin America (excluding Mexico). However, our results revealed that Mexican immigrants are disproportionately exposed to environmental hazards in wealthy regions.
•Overall, immigrants in the US reside in environmentally safe areas.•Exposure to environmental hazards depends on immigrants' country/region of origin.•Mexican immigrants migrate to environmentally unsafe areas in wealthier regions.
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