Sea level rise is a key feature in a warmer world and its impact can be seen globally. Assessing climate change-induced sea level rise, therefore, is urgently needed particularly in small island ...nations, where the threats of sea level rise are immediate, but the level of preparedness is low. Here, we propose a stochastic simulator to link changes in Mean Annual Temperature (MAT) to Mean Annual Sea Level (MASEL) at the local scale. This is through what-if scenarios that are developed based on the association between local temperature and sea level. The model can provide a basis for a bottom-up impact assessment by addressing limitations of applying large-scale projections in small islands and facilitating the accessibility of the impact assessment to stakeholders. For this purpose, we decompose the MAT and MASEL signals into their linear trend and autocorrelation components as well as independent and identically distributed residual terms. We further explore the association between trend and residual terms of MAT and MASEL. If such dependencies exist, scenarios of sea level can be synthesized based on the trend and residual terms of temperature. We use linear regression to link trends of MAT and MASEL, and copulas to formulate dependencies between residuals. This allows stochastic sampling of MASEL conditioned to trend and random variability in MAT. This framework is used for retrospective and prospective simulations of MASEL in Nouméa, the capital city of New Caledonia, the Pacific. We set up six different model configurations for developing the stochastic sampler, each including various parametric options. By selecting the best setup from each configuration, we provide a multi-model stochastic projection of MASEL, assuming the persistence in current long-term trend in MAT and MASEL. We demonstrate how such simulations can be used for a risk-based impact assessments and discuss sources of uncertainty in future projections.
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•A locally-relevant bottom-up method is suggested for assessing sea level rise.•This is based on linking trends and residuals of local sea level and temperature.•The method is applied to assessing sea level rise in Nouméa, New Caledonia.•Guidelines on developing and parametrizing copula models are provided.•Sources of uncertainty are explored, decomposed and quantified.
Friction (f) theory is one of the methods for modeling viscosity of fluids. According to this theory, the viscosity of a fluid is obtained from dilute gas viscosity, and the viscosity of the residual ...friction. The residual friction is included in the van der Waals attraction and repulsive terms, which are calculated with an equation of state (EOS). In this study, we examined the capability of combining the CPA (Cubic-Plus-Association) Equation of State with the f-theory for estimating viscosity of different alcohols (methanol, ethanol, 1-propanol, 2-propanol, 1-butanol, 1-pentanol and 1-octanol). Also, worth noting that CPA f-theory model performance, compared to PR ƒ-theory and SRK ƒ-theory models, shows better results. For the CPA ƒ-theory model, the overall absolute average deviation (overall AAD) for 2B scheme is approximately equal to 0.54% and for the 3B scheme, it is approximately equal to 0.45%, while the overall AAD for PR ƒ-theory model is approximately equal to 1.13% and for the SRK ƒ-theory model is approximately equal to 1.15%.
•The capability of combining the CPA EOS with the f-theory is examined for estimating viscosity of alcohols.•Methanol, ethanol, 1-propanol, 2-propanol, 1-butanol, 1-pentanol and 1-octanol are studied in this work.•The CPA f-theory model yields better results in comparison with the SRK f-theory and PR f-theory models.
•An algorithm for incorporating climate indices in streamflow generation is proposed•The algorithm is based on vine copulas, merged with a formal input selector•The algorithm enables representing ...dynamic impacts of climate indices on streamflow•The algorithm shows a better prediction skill, particularly in high flow seasons•The algorithm captures modes of streamflow variability better than existing schemes•The algorithm is generic and can be applied in single and multisite modes
Despite the existence of several stochastic streamflow generators, not much attention has been given to representing the impacts of large-scale climate indices on seasonal to interannual streamflow variability. By merging a formal predictor selection scheme with vine copulas, we propose a generic approach to explicitly incorporate large-scale climate indices in ensemble streamflow generation at single and multiple sites and in both short-term prediction and long-term projection modes. The proposed framework is applied at three headwater streams in the Oldman River Basin in southern Alberta, Canada. The results demonstrate higher skills than existing models both in terms of representing intra- and inter-annual variability, as well as accuracy and predictability of streamflow, particularly during high flow seasons. The proposed algorithm presents a globally relevant scheme for the stochastic streamflow generation, where the impacts of large-scale climate indices on streamflow variability across time and space are significant.
•Incentives for Tehran subway users to shift trips to off-peak hours were studied.•Financial, time-, and service-based incentives and combinations were considered.•Logistic and probit models were ...developed to identify the most effective incentive.•The most effective incentive types were identified by demographic group.•Reducing waiting times and offering fare discounts during off-peak hours affect willingness to shift trip times.
Issues such as the increasing demand for intra-city trips in megalopolises, noticeable growth in the use of public transportation, problems caused during peak traffic hours, and limitations related to the augmentation of transport fleet sizes all underscore the necessity of transportation demand management. In this study, we sought to address the question of whether incentive-based plans can alter passengers’ behavior during peak hours. To accomplish the task, we used 432 Tehran subway system passengers’ stated preferences. The results indicate that incentives, such as ticket discounting during off-peak hours, increasing availability of seats, and offering free Wi-Fi and breakfast discount coupons, can be influential in altering passenger behavior during peak hours. In addition, wait time reductions during off-peak hours can be an incentive for changing the travel behavior.
Iran's electricity market was restructured mostly to enhance its production efficiency. Nonetheless, the experience of liberalized electricity markets indicates that market establishment would be ...insufficient to produce competitive results. To determine whether the restructured market is moving toward competition, this paper assesses production efficiency in Iran's electricity market during high demand periods in 2006 as the first year of the restructured market's performance, and in 2012 as the last year with available data. We compared counterfactual benchmark outcomes to the actual dispatches to determine the production efficiency. Moreover, Iran's power market is a discriminatory, day-ahead auction; therefore, we considered the market design in the competitive benchmark. We found that the production was inefficient in both 2006 and 2012. More importantly, the production in the market is becoming increasingly inefficient over time due to exercising market power and distortion of the market's production by strategic firms. Not only were strategic firms distorting the market's production, but they were also learning to exercise more non-competitive behavior because these firms distorted the production in 2012 eight times more than they did in 2006.
•There is welfare loss in the restructured, pay-as-bid, electricity market of Iran.•Welfare loss in the market is due to production distortion by strategic firms.•Strategic firms are learning how to exercise greater power over time.•The implications of the restructured market reveal its production inefficiency.
A novel bioorthogonal gold nanoparticle (AuNP) template displaying interfacial nitrone functional groups for bioorthogonal interfacial strain-promoted alkyne–nitrone cycloaddition reactions has been ...synthesized. These nitrone–AuNPs were characterized in detail using 1H nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, transmission electron microscopy, thermogravimetric analysis, and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, and a nanoparticle raw formula was calculated. The ability to control the conjugation of molecules of interest at the molecular level onto the nitrone–AuNP template allowed us to create a novel methodology for the synthesis of AuNP-based radiolabeled probes.
Die Herstellung synthetischer zweidimensionaler (2D‐)Materialien ist eine faszinierende, aber schwierige Aufgabe, angetrieben durch Anwendungsmöglichkeiten in der Elektronik, Biomedizin, Katalyse und ...Sensorik sowie in Form von Membranen für die Trennung und Filtration. Unser Aufsatz beleuchtet aktuelle Fortschritte auf diesem breiten Gebiet, mit Schwerpunkten auf kovalenten und nichtkovalenten 2D‐Polymeren und Gerüsten sowie auf selbstorganisierten 2D‐Materialien aus Nanopartikeln, Homopolymeren und Blockcopolymeren.
Abstract Background and objectives: More Candida albicans strains are reported resistant to fluconazole in patients with AIDS, cancer and organ recipients. Fluconazole resistance can be ...attributed to changes in pathways of sterol biosynthesis, mutation in or overexpression of ERG11 and the expression of CDR1, CDR2, and MDR1. This study aimed to compare the expression of CDR1, CDR2, and MDR1 in C. albicans resistant and susceptible to fluconazole. Methods: MIC testing for fluconazole was performed on C. albicans isolates isolated from patients with oral and vaginal candidiasis to determine resistant and susceptible strains. Then real time PCR was performed on the resistant and susceptible isolates and the expression of CDR1, CDR2, and MDR1 was compared in C. albicans. Results: Of 46 Candida albicans isolates, 20 susceptible isolates, 12 semi-susceptible isolates and 14 resistant isolates were identified by MIC. After real time PCR was performed, Candida albicans isolates susceptible to fluconazole showed moderate expression of CDR1, CDR2, and MDR1 genes, while resistant isolates showed slight or no expression. Conclusion: Increased expression of CDR1, CDR2, and MDR1 had less and insignificant role in resistance to fluconazole. Keywords: Candida Albicans, Gene Expression, Real time PCR method
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