Incidence rates and prevalence proportions are commonly used to express the populations health status. Since there are several methods used to calculate these epidemiological measures, good ...comparison between studies and countries is difficult. This study investigates the impact of different operational definitions of numerators and denominators on incidence rates and prevalence proportions.
Data from routine electronic health records of general practices contributing to NIVEL Primary Care Database was used. Incidence rates were calculated using different denominators (person-years at-risk, person-years and midterm population). Three different prevalence proportions were determined: 1 year period prevalence proportions, point-prevalence proportions and contact prevalence proportions.
One year period prevalence proportions were substantially higher than point-prevalence (58.3 - 206.6%) for long-lasting diseases, and one year period prevalence proportions were higher than contact prevalence proportions (26.2 - 79.7%). For incidence rates, the use of different denominators resulted in small differences between the different calculation methods (-1.3 - 14.8%). Using person-years at-risk or a midterm population resulted in higher rates compared to using person-years.
All different operational definitions affect incidence rates and prevalence proportions to some extent. Therefore, it is important that the terminology and methodology is well described by sources reporting these epidemiological measures. When comparing incidence rates and prevalence proportions from different sources, it is important to be aware of the operational definitions applied and their impact.
The value of joint ultrasonography (US) in the prediction of clinical arthritis in individuals at risk of developing rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is still a point of debate, due to varying scanning ...protocols and different populations. We investigated whether US abnormalities assessed with a standard joint protocol can predict development of arthritis in seropositive patients with arthralgia.
Anti-citrullinated protein antibodies and/or rheumatoid factor positive patients with arthralgia, but without clinical arthritis were included. US was performed at baseline in 16 joints: bilateral metacarpophalangeal 2-3, proximal interphalangeal 2-3, wrist and metatarsophalangeal (MTP) joints 2-3 and 5. Images were scored semi-quantitatively for synovial thickening and for positive signs on power Doppler (PD). Association between US abnormalities and arthritis development at the joint and at the patient level was evaluated. Also, we investigated the added value of US over clinical parameters.
Out of 163 patients who underwent US examination, 51 (31%) developed clinical arthritis after a median follow-up time of 12 (interquartile range 5-24) months, of which 44 (86%) satisfied the 2010 American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism classification criteria for RA. US revealed synovial thickening and PD in at least one joint in 49 patients (30%) and 7 patients (4%), respectively. Synovial thickening was associated with both development and timing of clinical arthritis in any joint (patient level) when MTP joints were excluded from the US assessment (odds ratio 6.6, confidence interval (CI) 1.9-22), and hazard ratio 3.4, CI 1.6-6.8, respectively, with a mean time to arthritis of 23 versus 45 months when synovial thickening was present versus not present). There was no association between US and arthritis development at the joint level. Predictive capacity was highest in the groups with an intermediate and high risk of developing arthritis based on a prediction rule with clinical parameters.
Synovial thickening on US predicted clinical arthritis development at the patient level in seropositive patients with arthralgia when MTPs were excluded from the US assessment. Positive PD signs were infrequently seen in these at-risk individuals and was not predictive. In patients at intermediate risk of RA, US may help to identify those at higher risk of developing arthritis.
Antibiotic use is unnecessarily high for paediatric respiratory tract infections (RTIs) in primary care, and implementation of treatment guidelines is difficult in practice. This study aims to assess ...guideline adherence to antibiotic prescribing for RTIs in children and examine potential variations across Dutch general practices.
We conducted a retrospective observational study, deriving data on diagnoses and prescriptions from the electronic health records-based NIVEL Primary Care Database. Patients <18 years of age with a diagnosis of fever, ear and respiratory infections (International Classification of Primary Care codes A03, H71, R72, R75, R76, R78 and R81) during 2010-12 were included. Antibiotics were linked to episodes of illness. Two types of disease-specific outcomes were used to assess adherence to national guidelines regarding antibiotic prescribing choices. Inter-practice variability in adherence was assessed with multilevel analysis.
Half of the episodes with RTIs with restrictive prescribing policy and 65% of episodes with pneumonia were treated with antibiotics. General practitioners prescribed antibiotics for 40% of episodes with bronchitis, even though guidelines discourage antibiotic prescribing. First-choice antibiotics were prescribed in 50%-85% of episodes with selected diseases, with lowest values for narrow-spectrum penicillins. Levels of adherence to guidelines varied widely between diagnoses and between practices.
Most paediatric RTIs in the Netherlands continue to be treated with antibiotics conservatively. Potential aspects of concern are the inappropriate antibiotic prescribing for acute bronchitis and the underuse of some first-choice antibiotics. Continuing progress may be achieved by targeting practices with lower adherence rates to guidelines.
Cardiometabolic diseases (CMD) are the major cause of death worldwide and are associated with a lower quality of life and high healthcare costs. To prevent a further rise in CMD and related ...healthcare costs, early detection and adequate management of individuals at risk could be an effective preventive strategy. The objective of this study was to determine long-term cost-effectiveness of stepwise CMD risk assessment followed by individualized treatment if indicated compared to care as usual. A computer-based simulation model was used to project long-term health benefits and cost-effectiveness, assuming the prevention program was implemented in Dutch primary care.
A randomized controlled trial in a primary care setting in which 1934 participants aged 45-70 years without recorded CMD or CMD risk factors participated. The intervention group was invited for stepwise CMD risk assessment through a risk score (step 1), additional risk assessment at the practice in case of increased risk (step 2) and individualized follow-up treatment if indicated (step 3). The control group was not invited for risk assessment, but completed a health questionnaire. Results of the effectiveness analysis on systolic blood pressure (- 2.26 mmHg; 95% CI - 4.01: - 0.51) and total cholesterol (- 0.15 mmol/l; 95% CI - 0.23: - 0.07) were used in this analysis. Outcome measures were the costs and benefits after 1-year follow-up and long-term (60 years) cost-effectiveness of stepwise CMD risk assessment compared to no assessment. A computer-based simulation model was used that included data on disability weights associated with age and disease outcomes related to CMD. Analyses were performed taking a healthcare perspective.
After 1 year, the average costs in the intervention group were 260 Euro higher than in the control group and differences were mainly driven by healthcare costs. No meaningful change was found in EQ 5D-based quality of life between the intervention and control groups after 1-year follow-up (- 0.0154; 95% CI - 0.029: 0.004). After 60 years, cumulative costs of the intervention were 41.4 million Euro and 135 quality-adjusted life years (QALY) were gained. Despite improvements in blood pressure and cholesterol, the intervention was not cost-effective (ICER of 306,000 Euro/QALY after 60 years). Scenario analyses did not allow for a change in conclusions with regard to cost-effectiveness of the intervention.
Implementation of this primary care-based CMD prevention program is not cost-effective in the long term. Implementation of this program in primary care cannot be recommended.
Dutch Trial Register NTR4277 , registered on 26 November 2013.
A comprehensive and representative nationwide general practice database was explored to study associations between atopic disorders and prescribed medication in children.
All children aged 0-18 years ...listed in the NIVEL Primary Care Database in 2014 were selected. Atopic children with atopic eczema, asthma and allergic rhinitis (AR) were matched with controls (not diagnosed with any of these disorders) within the same general practice on age and gender. Logistic regression analyses were performed to study the differences in prescribed medication between both groups by calculating odds ratios (OR); 93 different medication groups were studied.
A total of 45,964 children with at least one atopic disorder were identified and matched with controls. Disorder-specific prescriptions seem to reflect evidence-based medicine guidelines for atopic eczema, asthma and AR. However, these disorder-specific prescriptions were also prescribed for children who were not registered as having that specific disorder. For eczema-related medication, about 3.7-8.4% of the children with non-eczematous atopic morbidity received these prescriptions, compared to 1.4-3.5% of the non-atopic children. The same pattern was observed for anti-asthmatics (having non-asthmatic atopic morbidity: 0.8-6.2% vs. controls: 0.3-2.1%) and AR-related medication (having non-AR atopic morbidity: 4.7-12.5% vs. controls: 2.8-3.1%). Also, non-atopic related medication, such as laxatives and antibiotics were more frequently prescribed for atopic children.
The present study shows that atopic children received more prescriptions, compared to non-atopic children. Non-atopic controls frequently received specific prescriptions for atopic disorders. This indicates that children with atopic disorders need better monitoring by their GP.
Routinely recorded electronic health records (EHRs) from general practitioners (GPs) are increasingly available and provide valuable data for estimating incidence and prevalence rates of diseases in ...the population. This paper describes how we developed an algorithm to construct episodes of illness based on EHR data to calculate morbidity rates.
The goal of the research was to develop a simple and uniform algorithm to construct episodes of illness based on electronic health record data and develop a method to calculate morbidity rates based on these episodes of illness.
The algorithm was developed in discussion rounds with two expert groups and tested with data from the Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research Primary Care Database, which consisted of a representative sample of 219 general practices covering a total population of 867,140 listed patients in 2012.
All 685 symptoms and diseases in the International Classification of Primary Care version 1 were categorized as acute symptoms and diseases, long-lasting reversible diseases, or chronic diseases. For the nonchronic diseases, a contact-free interval (the period in which it is likely that a patient will visit the GP again if a medical complaint persists) was defined. The constructed episode of illness starts with the date of diagnosis and ends at the time of the last encounter plus half of the duration of the contact-free interval. Chronic diseases were considered irreversible and for these diseases no contact-free interval was needed.
An algorithm was developed to construct episodes of illness based on routinely recorded EHR data to estimate morbidity rates. The algorithm constitutes a simple and uniform way of using EHR data and can easily be applied in other registries.
Abstract
Objective
This study aims to assess the prevalence proportion and incidence rate of cardiovascular morbidity in patients with inflammatory arthritis compared with that in controls, and to ...determine whether the co-existence of multiple autoimmune disorders is associated with an amplified risk of cardiovascular disease.
Methods
Data from the Nivel Primary Care Database were used to assess prevalence proportion and incidence rate of cardiovascular disease in patients with inflammatory arthritis only, patients with inflammatory arthritis coexistent with another autoimmune disorder, and controls. Hazard ratios were calculated using Cox regression models.
Results
The prevalence proportions in inflammatory arthritis patients were increased for type 1 diabetes odds ratio (OR) 1.80, 95% CI: 1.27, 2.55, hypothyroidism (OR 1.49, 95% CI: 1.37, 1.61), psoriasis (OR 2.72, 95% CI: 2.49, 2.97) and IBD (OR 2.64, 95% CI: 2.28, 3.07) compared with that in controls. Cardiovascular disease prevalence (OR 1.34, 95% CI: 1.28, 1.41) and incidence rates (incidence rate ratio 1.3, 95% CI: 1.23, 1.41) were higher in inflammatory arthritis patients compared with that in controls, and were further increased in the presence of a second autoimmune disorder. The hazard ratio for cardiovascular disease was 1.32 (95% CI: 1.23, 1.41) for patients with inflammatory arthritis only, and 1.49 (95% CI: 1.31, 1.68) for patients with inflammatory arthritis co-existent with another autoimmune disorder.
Conclusion
The amplification of cardiovascular disease risk in inflammatory arthritis patients with multiple autoimmune disorders warrants greater awareness, and since autoimmune disorders often co-exist, the need for cardiovascular risk management in these patients is once again emphasized.
Abstract
Background
Cardiometabolic diseases (CMDs) are the number one cause of death. Selective prevention of CMDs by general practitioners (GPs) could help reduce the burden of CMDs. This measure ...would entail the identification of individuals at high risk of CMDs—but currently asymptomatic—followed by interventions to reduce their risk. No data were available on the attitude and the extent to which European GPs have incorporated selective CMD prevention into daily practice.
Methods
A survey among 575 GPs from the Czech Republic, Denmark, Greece, the Netherlands and Sweden was conducted between September 2016 and January 2017, within the framework of the SPIMEU-project.
Results
On average, 71% of GPs invited their patients to attend for CMD risk assessment. Some used an active approach (47%) while others used an opportunistic approach (53%), but these values differed between countries. Most GPs considered selective CMD prevention as useful (82%) and saw it as part of their normal duties (84%). GPs who did find selective prevention useful were more likely to actively invite individuals compared with their counterparts who did not find prevention useful. Most GPs had a disease management programme for individuals with risk factor(s) for cardiovascular disease (71%) or diabetes (86%).
Conclusions
Although most GPs considered selective CMD prevention as useful, it was not universally implemented. The biggest challenge was the process of inviting individuals for risk assessment. It is important to tailor the implementation of selective CMD prevention in primary care to the national context, involving stakeholders at different levels.
AimsTo validate a multivariable risk prediction model (Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology model for atrial fibrillation (CHARGE-AF)) for 5-year risk of atrial fibrillation ...(AF) in routinely collected primary care data and to assess CHARGE-AF’s potential for automated, low-cost selection of patients at high risk for AF based on routine primary care data.MethodsWe included patients aged ≥40 years, free of AF and with complete CHARGE-AF variables at baseline, 1 January 2014, in a representative, nationwide routine primary care database in the Netherlands (Nivel-PCD). We validated CHARGE-AF for 5-year observed AF incidence using the C-statistic for discrimination, and calibration plot and stratified Kaplan-Meier plot for calibration. We compared CHARGE-AF with other predictors and assessed implications of using different CHARGE-AF cut-offs to select high-risk patients.ResultsAmong 111 475 patients free of AF and with complete CHARGE-AF variables at baseline (17.2% of all patients aged ≥40 years and free of AF), mean age was 65.5 years, and 53% were female. Complete CHARGE-AF cases were older and had higher AF incidence and cardiovascular comorbidity rate than incomplete cases. There were 5264 (4.7%) new AF cases during 5-year follow-up among complete cases. CHARGE-AF’s C-statistic for new AF was 0.74 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.74). The calibration plot showed slight risk underestimation in low-risk deciles and overestimation of absolute AF risk in those with highest predicted risk. The Kaplan-Meier plot with categories <2.5%, 2.5%–5% and >5% predicted 5-year risk was highly accurate. CHARGE-AF outperformed CHA2DS2-VASc (Cardiac failure or dysfunction, Hypertension, Age >=75 Doubled, Diabetes, Stroke Doubled-Vascular disease, Age 65-74, and Sex category Female) and age alone as predictors for AF. Dichotomisation at cut-offs of 2.5%, 5% and 10% baseline CHARGE-AF risk all showed merits for patient selection in AF screening efforts.ConclusionIn patients with complete baseline CHARGE-AF data through routine Dutch primary care, CHARGE-AF accurately assessed AF risk among older primary care patients, outperformed both CHA2DS2-VASc and age alone as predictors for AF and showed potential for automated, low-cost patient selection in AF screening.
Effective preventive strategies for cardiometabolic disease (CMD) are needed. We aim to establish the effectiveness of a stepwise CMD risk assessment followed by individualized treatment if indicated ...compared to care as usual. We conducted a RCT between 2014 and 2017. Individuals (45–70 years) without CMD or CMD risk factors were invited for stepwise CMD risk assessment through a risk score (step1), additional risk assessment at the practice in case of high-risk (step2) and individualized follow-up treatment if indicated (step3). We compared newly detected CMD and newly prescribed drugs during one-year follow-up, and change in CMD risk profile between baseline and one-year follow-up among participants who completed step2 to matched controls. A CMD was diagnosed almost three times more often (OR 2.90, 95% CI 2.25: 3.72) in the intervention compared to the control group, in parallel with newly prescribed antihypertensive and lipid lowering drugs (OR 2.85, 95% CI 1.96: 4.15 and 3.23, 95% CI 2.03: 5.14 respectively). Waist circumference significantly decreased between the intervention compared to the control group (mean −3.08 cm, 95% CI −3.73: −2.43). No differences were observed for changes in BMI and smoking. Systolic blood pressure (mean −2.26 mmHg, 95% CI −4.01: −0.51) and cholesterol ratio (mean −0.11, 95% CI −0.19: −0.02) significantly decreased within intervention participants between baseline and one-year follow-up. In conclusion, implementation of the CMD prevention program resulted in the detection of two- to threefold more patients with CMD. A significant drop in systolic blood pressure and cholesterol levels was found after one year of treatment. Modelling of these results should confirm the effect on long term endpoints.
Trial registration: Dutch trial Register number NTR4277.
•It is known that screening for CVD risk factors in the general population does not reduce CVD related morbidity and mortality.•Targeted case finding of high-risk individuals might be an effective preventive strategy.•Implementation of stepwise CMD prevention in primary care improves detection of CMD and treatment of high-risk individuals.•Modelling to long-term endpoints as morbidity and mortality will have to confirm its (cost)-effectiveness.
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