Aim Presence-only datasets represent an important source of information on species' distributions. Collections of presence-only data, however, are often spatially biased, particularly along roads and ...near urban populations. These biases can lead to inaccurate inferences and predicted distributions. We demonstrate a new approach of accounting for effort bias in presence-only data by explicitly incorporating sample biases in species distribution modelling. Location Alberta, Canada. Methods First, we used logistic regression to model sampling effort of recorded rare vascular plants, bryophytes and butterflies in Alberta. Second, we simulated presence/absence data for nine 'virtual' species based on three relative occurrence thresholds – common, rare and very rare – for each taxonomic group. We sampled these virtual species using our bias model to represent typical sampling effort characteristic of presence-only datasets. We then modelled the distributions of these virtual species using logistic regression and attempted to recover their original simulated distributions using a sample weighting term (prior weight) estimated as the inverse of probability of sampling. Bias-adjusted model estimates were compared to those obtained from random samples and biased samples without adjustment. We also compared prior-weight adjustment to bias-file and target-group background approaches in Maxent. Results Sample weighting recovered regression coefficients and mapped predictions estimated from unbiased presence-only data and improved model predictive accuracy as evaluated by regression and correlation coefficients, sensitivity and specificity. Similar model improvements were achieved using the Maxent bias-file method, but results were inconsistent for the target-group background approach. Main conclusions These results suggest that sample weighting can be used to account for spatially biased presence-only datasets in species distribution modelling. The framework presented is potentially widely applicable due to availability of online biodiversity databases and the flexibility of the approach.
The ecology of human–carnivore coexistence Lamb, Clayton T.; Ford, Adam T.; McLellan, Bruce N. ...
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS,
07/2020, Letnik:
117, Številka:
30
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
With a shrinking supply of wilderness and growing recognition that top predators can have a profound influence on ecosystems, the persistence of large carnivores in human-dominated landscapes has ...emerged as one of the greatest conservation challenges of our time. Carnivores fascinate society, yet these animals pose threats to people living near them, resulting in high rates of carnivore death near human settlements. We used 41 y of demographic data for more than 2,500 brown bears—one of the world’s most widely distributed and conflict-prone carnivores—to understand the behavioral and demographic mechanisms promoting carnivore coexistence in human-dominated landscapes. Bear mortality was high and unsustainable near people, but a human-induced shift to nocturnality facilitated lower risks of bear mortality and rates of conflict with people. Despite these behavioral shifts, projected population growth rates for bears in human-dominated areas revealed a source-sink dynamic. Despite some female bears successfully reproducing in the sink areas, bear persistence was reliant on a supply of immigrants from areas with minimal human influence (i.e., wilderness). Such mechanisms of coexistence reveal a striking paradox: Connectivity to wilderness areas supplies bears that likely will die from people, but these bears are essential to avert local extirpation. These insights suggest carnivores contribute to human–carnivore coexistence through behavioral and demographic mechanisms, and that connected wilderness is critical to sustain coexistence landscapes.
The velocity of climate change is an elegant analytical concept that can be used to evaluate the exposure of organisms to climate change. In essence, one divides the rate of climate change by the ...rate of spatial climate variability to obtain a speed at which species must migrate over the surface of the earth to maintain constant climate conditions. However, to apply the algorithm for conservation and management purposes, additional information is needed to improve realism at local scales. For example, destination information is needed to ensure that vectors describing speed and direction of required migration do not point toward a climatic cul‐de‐sac by pointing beyond mountain tops. Here, we present an analytical approach that conforms to standard velocity algorithms if climate equivalents are nearby. Otherwise, the algorithm extends the search for climate refugia, which can be expanded to search for multivariate climate matches. With source and destination information available, forward and backward velocities can be calculated allowing useful inferences about conservation of species (present‐to‐future velocities) and management of species populations (future‐to‐present velocities).
The efficacy of closure of a patent foramen ovale (PFO) in the prevention of recurrent stroke after cryptogenic stroke is uncertain. We investigated the effect of PFO closure combined with ...antiplatelet therapy versus antiplatelet therapy alone on the risks of recurrent stroke and new brain infarctions.
In this multinational trial involving patients with a PFO who had had a cryptogenic stroke, we randomly assigned patients, in a 2:1 ratio, to undergo PFO closure plus antiplatelet therapy (PFO closure group) or to receive antiplatelet therapy alone (antiplatelet-only group). Imaging of the brain was performed at the baseline screening and at 24 months. The coprimary end points were freedom from clinical evidence of ischemic stroke (reported here as the percentage of patients who had a recurrence of stroke) through at least 24 months after randomization and the 24-month incidence of new brain infarction, which was a composite of clinical ischemic stroke or silent brain infarction detected on imaging.
We enrolled 664 patients (mean age, 45.2 years), of whom 81% had moderate or large interatrial shunts. During a median follow-up of 3.2 years, clinical ischemic stroke occurred in 6 of 441 patients (1.4%) in the PFO closure group and in 12 of 223 patients (5.4%) in the antiplatelet-only group (hazard ratio, 0.23; 95% confidence interval CI, 0.09 to 0.62; P=0.002). The incidence of new brain infarctions was significantly lower in the PFO closure group than in the antiplatelet-only group (22 patients 5.7% vs. 20 patients 11.3%; relative risk, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.29 to 0.91; P=0.04), but the incidence of silent brain infarction did not differ significantly between the study groups (P=0.97). Serious adverse events occurred in 23.1% of the patients in the PFO closure group and in 27.8% of the patients in the antiplatelet-only group (P=0.22). Serious device-related adverse events occurred in 6 patients (1.4%) in the PFO closure group, and atrial fibrillation occurred in 29 patients (6.6%) after PFO closure.
Among patients with a PFO who had had a cryptogenic stroke, the risk of subsequent ischemic stroke was lower among those assigned to PFO closure combined with antiplatelet therapy than among those assigned to antiplatelet therapy alone; however, PFO closure was associated with higher rates of device complications and atrial fibrillation. (Funded by W.L. Gore and Associates; Gore REDUCE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00738894 .).
Assessments of large-scale changes in habitat are a priority for management and conservation. Traditional approaches use land use and land cover data (LULC) that focus mostly on “structural” ...properties of landscapes, rather than “functional” properties related to specific ecological processes. Here, we contend that designing functional analyses of LULC can provide important and complementary information to traditional, structural analyses. We substantiate this perspective with an example of functional changes in habitat due to industrial anthropogenic footprints in Alberta’s boreal forest, where there has been little overall forest loss (~ 6% structural change), but high levels of functional change (up to 93% functional change) for species’ habitat, biodiversity, and wildfire ignition. We discuss the methods needed to achieve functional LULC analyses, when they are most appropriate to add to structural assessments, and conclude by providing recommendations for analyses of LULC in a future of increasingly high-resolution, dynamic remote sensing data.
1. Habitat choice is an evolutionary product of animals experiencing increased fitness when preferentially occupying high-quality habitat. However, an ecological trap (ET) can occur when an animal is ...presented with novel conditions and the animal's assessment of habitat quality is poorly matched to its resulting fitness. 2. We tested for an ET for grizzly (brown) bears using demographic and movement data collected in an area with rich food resources and concentrated human settlement. 3. We derived measures of habitat attractiveness from occurrence models of bear food resources and estimated demographic parameters using DNA mark-recapture information collected over 8 years (2006-2013). We then paired this information with grizzly bear mortality records to investigate kill and movement rates. 4. Our results demonstrate that a valley high in both berry resources and human density was more attractive than surrounding areas, and bears occupying this region faced 17% lower apparent survival. Despite lower fitness, we detected a net flow of bears into the ET, which contributed to a study-wide population decline. 5. This work highlights the presence and pervasiveness of an ET for an apex omnivore that lacks the evolutionary cues, under human-induced rapid ecological change, to assess tradeoffs between food resources and human-caused mortality, which results in maladaptive habitat selection.
As most regions of the earth transition to altered climatic conditions, new methods are needed to identify refugia and other areas whose conservation would facilitate persistence of biodiversity ...under climate change. We compared several common approaches to conservation planning focused on climate resilience over a broad range of ecological settings across North America and evaluated how commonalities in the priority areas identified by different methods varied with regional context and spatial scale. Our results indicate that priority areas based on different environmental diversity metrics differed substantially from each other and from priorities based on spatiotemporal metrics such as climatic velocity. Refugia identified by diversity or velocity metrics were not strongly associated with the current protected area system, suggesting the need for additional conservation measures including protection of refugia. Despite the inherent uncertainties in predicting future climate, we found that variation among climatic velocities derived from different general circulation models and emissions pathways was less than the variation among the suite of environmental diversity metrics. To address uncertainty created by this variation, planners can combine priorities identified by alternative metrics at a single resolution and downweight areas of high variation between metrics. Alternately, coarse‐resolution velocity metrics can be combined with fine‐resolution diversity metrics in order to leverage the respective strengths of the two groups of metrics as tools for identification of potential macro‐ and microrefugia that in combination maximize both transient and long‐term resilience to climate change. Planners should compare and integrate approaches that span a range of model complexity and spatial scale to match the range of ecological and physical processes influencing persistence of biodiversity and identify a conservation network resilient to threats operating at multiple scales.
There is a pressing need for comparisons of approaches to identifying refugia and other areas whose conservation would facilitate persistence of biodiversity under climate change. We compared a range of approaches to identifying refugia across North America to ascertain how metric performance varies with ecological context and scale. Our results indicate that priority areas based on different environmental diversity metrics differed substantially from each other and from priorities based on more complex metrics such as climatic velocity. Our results suggest guidelines for when and how to use simple and complex metrics for identifying refugia. Planners should compare and integrate approaches that span a spectrum of model complexity and spatial scale to match the range of ecological and physical processes influencing persistence of biodiversity.
Future changes in climate are widely anticipated to increase fire frequency, particularly in boreal forests where extreme warming is expected to occur. Feedbacks between vegetation and fire may ...modify the direct effects of warming on fire activity and shape ecological responses to changing fire frequency. We investigate these interactions using extensive field data from the Boreal Shield of Saskatchewan, Canada, a region where >40% of the forest has burned in the past 30 years. We use geospatial and field data to assess the resistance and resilience of eight common vegetation states to frequent fire by quantifying the occurrence of short‐interval fires and their effect on recovery to a similar vegetation state. These empirical relationships are combined with data from published literature to parameterize a spatially explicit, state‐and‐transition simulation model of fire and forest succession. We use this model to ask if and how: (a) feedbacks between vegetation and wildfire may modify fire activity on the landscape, and (b) more frequent fire may affect landscape forest composition and age structure. Both field and GIS data suggest the probability of fire is low in the initial decades after fire, supporting the hypothesis that fuel accumulation may exert a negative feedback on fire frequency. Field observations of pre‐ and postfire composition indicate that switches in forest state are more likely in conifer stands that burn at a young age, supporting the hypothesis that resilience is lower in immature stands. Stands dominated by deciduous trees or jack pine were generally resilient to fire, while mixed conifer and well‐drained spruce forests were less resilient. However, simulation modeling suggests increased fire activity may result in large changes in forest age structure and composition, despite the feedbacks between vegetation–fire likely to occur with increased fire activity.
Here, we study fire and forest dynamics in Saskatchewan's Boreal Shield to better understand the resilience and resistance of North American boreal forests to projected increases in fire activity. Both field and GIS data show evidence for self‐regulation of fire, where young, recently burned forest stands are more resistant to fire than older stands, and immaturity risk, where short‐interval fires reduce forest resilience to fire. However, simulation modeling suggests increased fire activity may result in large changes in forest age structure and composition, despite the feedbacks between vegetation–fire likely to occur with increased fire activity.
Nutrient balance is a strong determinant of animal fitness and demography. It is therefore important to understand how the compositions of available foods relate to required balance of nutrients and ...habitat suitability for animals in the wild. These relationships are, however, complex, particularly for omnivores that often need to compose balanced diets by combining their intake from diverse nutritionally complementary foods. Here we apply geometric models to understand how the nutritional compositions of foods available to an omnivorous member of the order Carnivora, the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos L.), relate to optimal macronutrient intake, and assess the seasonal nutritional constraints on the study population in west-central Alberta, Canada. The models examined the proportion of macronutrients that bears could consume by mixing their diet from food available in each season, and assessed the extent to which bears could consume the ratio of protein to non-protein energy previously demonstrated using captive bears to optimize mass gain. We found that non-selective feeding on ungulate carcasses provided a non-optimal macronutrient balance with surplus protein relative to fat and carbohydrate, reflecting adaptation to an omnivorous lifestyle, and that optimization through feeding selectively on different tissues of ungulate carcasses is unlikely. Bears were, however, able to dilute protein intake to an optimal ratio by mixing their otherwise high-protein diet with carbohydrate-rich fruit. Some individual food items were close to optimally balanced in protein to non-protein energy (e.g. Hedysarum alpinum roots), which may help explain their dietary prevalence. Ants may be consumed particularly as a source of lipids. Overall, our analysis showed that most food available to bears in the study area were high in protein relative to lipid or carbohydrate, suggesting the lack of non-protein energy limits the fitness (e.g. body size and reproduction) and population density of grizzly bears in this ecosystem.
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