Sulfur injections for a cooler planet Niemeier, Ulrike; Tilmes, Simone
Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science),
07/2017, Letnik:
357, Številka:
6348
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Can injections of sulfur into the stratosphere help to counteract climate change?
Achieving the Paris Agreement's aim to limit the global temperature increase to at most 2°C above preindustrial ...levels will require rapid, substantial greenhouse gas emission reductions together with large-scale use of “negative emission” strategies for capturing carbon dioxide (CO
2
) from the air (
1
). It remains unclear, however, how or indeed whether large net-negative emissions can be achieved, and neither technology nor sufficient storage capacity for captured carbon are available (
2
). Limited commitment for sufficient mitigation efforts and the uncertainty related to net-negative emissions have intensified calls for options that may help to reduce the worst climate effects (
3
). One suggested approach is the artificial reduction of sunlight reaching Earth's surface by increasing the reflectivity of Earth's surface or atmosphere.
Artificial injections of sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the stratosphere show in several model studies an impact on stratospheric dynamics. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) has been shown to slow down ...or even vanish under higher SO2 injections in the equatorial region. But the impact is only qualitatively but not quantitatively consistent across the different studies using different numerical models. The aim of this study is to understand the reasons behind the differences in the QBO response to SO2 injections between two general circulation models, the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM-110L) and MAECHAM5-HAM. We show that the response of the QBO to injections with the same SO2 injection rate is very different in the two models, but similar when a similar stratospheric heating rate is induced by SO2 injections of different amounts. The reason for the different response of the QBO corresponding to the same injection rate is very different vertical advection in the two models, even in the control simulation. The stronger vertical advection in WACCM results in a higher aerosol burden and stronger heating of the aerosols and, consequently, in a vanishing QBO at lower injection rate than in simulations with MAECHAM5-HAM. The vertical velocity increases slightly in MAECHAM5-HAM when increasing the horizontal resolution. This study highlights the crucial role of dynamical processes and helps to understand the large uncertainties in the response of different models to artificial SO2 injections in climate engineering studies.
The eruption of the Hunga Tonga—Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcano on 15 January 2022 injected about 150 Tg of water vapor (H2O), roughly 10% of the background stratospheric H2O content, to altitudes above ...50 km. Simulations of the spatial evolution of the H2O cloud with the ICON‐Seamless model are very close to observations from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder. The vertical transport of the H2O cloud had three phases: an initial subsidence phase, a stable phase, and a rising phase. Radiative cooling of H2O clearly affects the transport of the H2O cloud, as demonstrated with passive tracers, and is the main driver within the subsidence phase. It also counteracts the large‐scale rising motion in the tropics, leading to the stable phase, and modulates the large‐scale transport of the H2O cloud for about 9 months. This holds for different QBO phases, where the H2O cloud differs mainly in its vertical extent.
Plain Language Summary
The eruption of the Hunga Tonga—Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcano on 15 January 2022 injected about 150 Tg water vapor (H2O) to an altitude above 50 km. This is more than 10% of the total stratospheric H2O content. We study the distribution of the H2O cloud and its ascent into the mesosphere using observations from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder satellite and by performing simulations of the cloud with the ICON‐Seamless model. The vertical transport of the H2O cloud had three phases: a subsidence, a stable, and a rising phase. The temperature inside the H2O cloud is lower than outside the cloud. This causes the subsidence of the H2O cloud and has consequences for the transport during the next months. From October 2022 on, the transport is mainly determined by the large‐scale wind patterns.
Key Points
Radiative cooling of the H2O cloud influences the transport of the H2O cloud, stratospheric dynamics and, changes tracer transport
Radiative cooling of the H2O cloud influences the cross equatorial transport of the H2O cloud
The phase of the QBO modulates the large‐scale transport and the vertical extension of the HTHH cloud
Emissions from fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning reduce local air quality and affect global tropospheric chemistry. Nitrogen oxides are emitted by all combustion processes and play a key ...part in the photochemically induced catalytic production of ozone, which results in summer smog and has increased levels of tropospheric ozone globally. Release of nitrogen oxide also results in nitric acid deposition, and-at least locally-increases radiative forcing effects due to the absorption of downward propagating visible light. Nitrogen oxide concentrations in many industrialized countries are expected to decrease, but rapid economic development has the potential to increase significantly the emissions of nitrogen oxides in parts of Asia. Here we present the tropospheric column amounts of nitrogen dioxide retrieved from two satellite instruments GOME and SCIAMACHY over the years 1996-2004. We find substantial reductions in nitrogen dioxide concentrations over some areas of Europe and the USA, but a highly significant increase of about 50 per cent-with an accelerating trend in annual growth rate-over the industrial areas of China, more than recent bottom-up inventories suggest.
Stratospheric aerosols are an important component of the climate system. They not only change the radiative budget of the Earth but also play an
essential role in ozone depletion. These impacts are ...particularly noticeable after volcanic eruptions when SO2 injected with the eruption reaches the stratosphere, oxidizes, and forms stratospheric aerosol. There have been several studies in which a volcanic eruption plume and the associated radiative forcing were analyzed using climate models and/or data from satellite measurements. However, few have compared vertically and temporally resolved volcanic plumes using both measured and modeled data. In this paper, we compared changes in the stratospheric aerosol loading after the 2018 Ambae eruption observed by satellite remote sensing measurements and simulated by a global aerosol model. We use vertical profiles of the aerosol extinction coefficient at 869 nm retrieved at the Institute of Environmental Physics (IUP) in Bremen from OMPS-LP (Ozone Mapping and Profiling Suite – Limb Profiler) observations. Here, we present the retrieval algorithm and a comparison of the obtained profiles with those from SAGE III/ISS (Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III on board the International Space Station). The observed differences are within 25 % for most latitude bins, which indicates a reasonable quality of the retrieved limb aerosol extinction product. The volcanic plume evolution is investigated using both monthly mean aerosol extinction coefficients and 10 d averaged data. The measurement results were compared with the model output from MAECHAM5-HAM (ECHAM for short). In order to simulate the eruption accurately, we use SO2 injection estimates from OMPS and OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) for the first phase of eruption and the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) for the second phase. Generally, the agreement between the vertical and geographical distribution of the aerosol extinction coefficient from OMPS-LP and ECHAM is quite remarkable, in particular, for the second phase. We attribute the good consistency between the model and the measurements to the precise estimation of injected SO2 mass and height, as well as to the nudging to ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data. Additionally, we compared the radiative forcing (RF) caused by the increase in the aerosol loading in the stratosphere after the eruption. After accounting for the uncertainties from different RF calculation methods, the RFs from ECHAM and OMPS-LP agree quite well. We estimate the tropical (20∘ N to 20∘ S) RF from the second Ambae eruption to be about −0.13 W m−2.
As part of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project a numerical experiment known as G6sulfur has been designed in which temperatures under a high-forcing future scenario (SSP5-8.5) are ...reduced to those under a medium-forcing scenario (SSP2-4.5) using the proposed geoengineering technique of stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI). G6sulfur involves introducing sulfuric acid aerosol into the tropical stratosphere where it reflects incoming sunlight back to space, thus cooling the planet. Here, we compare the results from six Earth-system models that have performed the G6sulfur experiment and examine how SAI affects two important modes of natural variability, the northern wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Although all models show that SAI is successful in reducing global mean temperature as designed, they are also consistent in showing that it forces an increasingly positive phase of the NAO as the injection rate increases over the course of the 21st century, exacerbating precipitation reductions over parts of southern Europe compared with SSP5-8.5. In contrast to the robust result for the NAO, there is less consistency for the impact on the QBO, but the results nevertheless indicate a risk that equatorial SAI could cause the QBO to stall and become locked in a phase with permanent westerly winds in the lower stratosphere.
Extremely large volcanic eruptions have been linked to global climate change, biotic turnover, and, for the Younger Toba Tuff (YTT) eruption 74,000 years ago, near‐extinction of modern humans. One of ...the largest uncertainties of the climate effects involves evolution and growth of aerosol particles. A huge atmospheric concentration of sulfate causes higher collision rates, larger particle sizes, and rapid fall out, which in turn greatly affects radiative feedbacks. We address this key process by incorporating the effects of aerosol microphysical processes into an Earth System Model. The temperature response is shorter (9–10 years) and three times weaker (−3.5 K at maximum globally) than estimated before, although cooling could still have reached −12 K in some midlatitude continental regions after one year. The smaller response, plus its geographic patchiness, suggests that most biota may have escaped threshold extinction pressures from the eruption.
Tropical forests represent a major atmospheric carbon dioxide sink. Here the gross primary productivity (GPP) response of tropical rainforests to climate engineering via marine sky brightening under ...a future scenario is investigated in three Earth system models. The model response is diverse, and in two of the three models, the tropical GPP shows a decrease from the marine sky brightening climate engineering. Partial correlation analysis indicates precipitation to be important in one of those models, while precipitation and temperature are limiting factors in the other. One model experiences a reversal of its Amazon dieback under marine sky brightening. There, the strongest partial correlation of GPP is to temperature and incoming solar radiation at the surface. Carbon fertilization provides a higher future tropical rainforest GPP overall, both with and without climate engineering. Salt damage to plants and soils could be an important aspect of marine sky brightening.
Key Points
Tropical rainforest response to marine sky brightening is investigated in three ESMs
Two models show GPP reduction from geoengineering, one Amazon dieback reversal
Possibly adverse effects on plants and soils from salt of this geoengineering type
The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 injected a large amount of SO2 into the stratosphere, which formed sulfate aerosols. Increased scattering and absorption of UV radiation by the enhanced ...stratospheric SO2 and aerosols decreased the amount of UV radiation reaching the troposphere, causing changes in tropospheric photochemistry. These changes affected the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere and the removal rate of CH4 in the years following the eruption. We use the three‐dimensional chemistry transport model TM5 coupled to the aerosol microphysics module M7 to simulate the evolution of SO2 and sulfate aerosols from the Pinatubo eruption. Their effect on tropospheric photolysis frequencies and concentrations of OH and CH4 is quantified for the first time. We find that UV attenuation by stratospheric sulfur decreased the photolysis frequencies of both ozone and NO2 by about 2% globally, decreasing global OH concentrations by a similar amount in the first 2 years after the eruption. SO2 absorption mainly affects OH primary production by ozone photolysis, while aerosol scattering also alters OH recycling. The effect of stratospheric sulfur on global OH and CH4 is dominated by the effect of aerosol extinction, while SO2 absorption contributes by 12.5% to the overall effect in the first year after the eruption. The reduction in OH concentrations causes an increase in the CH4 growth rate of 4 and 2 ppb/yr in the first and second years after the eruption, respectively, contributing 11 Tg to the 27 Tg observed CH4 burden change in late 1991 and early 1992.
Key Points
We modeled the effect of Pinatubo sulfur on tropospheric photochemistry
SO2 absorption and aerosol extinction reduce tropospheric UV levels
The tropospheric OH sink of CH4 decreased by 17.8 Tg during June 1991–June 1993
The injection of sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the stratosphere to form an artificial stratospheric aerosol layer is discussed as an option for solar radiation management. Sulfate aerosol scatters solar ...radiation and absorbs infrared radiation, which warms the stratospheric sulfur layer. Simulations with the general circulation model ECHAM5-HAM, including aerosol microphysics, show consequences of this warming, including changes of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the tropics. The QBO slows down after an injection of 4 Tg(S) yr−1 and completely shuts down after an injection of 8 Tg(S) yr−1. Transport of species in the tropics and sub-tropics depends on the phase of the QBO. Consequently, the heated aerosol layer not only impacts the oscillation of the QBO but also the meridional transport of the sulfate aerosols. The stronger the injection, the stronger the heating and the simulated impact on the QBO and equatorial wind systems. With increasing injection rate the velocity of the equatorial jet streams increases, and the less sulfate is transported out of the tropics. This reduces the global distribution of sulfate and decreases the radiative forcing efficiency of the aerosol layer by 10 to 14 % compared to simulations with low vertical resolution and without generated QBO. Increasing the height of the injection increases the radiative forcing only for injection rates below 10 Tg(S) yr−1 (8–18 %), a much smaller value than the 50 % calculated previously. Stronger injection rates at higher levels even result in smaller forcing than the injections at lower levels.
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