Some observations suggest that very massive stars experience extreme mass-loss episodes shortly before they explode as supernovae, as do several models. Establishing a causal connection between these ...mass-loss episodes and the final explosion would provide a novel way to study pre-supernova massive-star evolution. Here we report observations of a mass-loss event detected 40 days before the explosion of the type IIn supernova SN 2010mc (also known as PTF 10tel). Our photometric and spectroscopic data suggest that this event is a result of an energetic outburst, radiating at least 6 × 10(47) erg of energy and releasing about 10(-2) solar masses of material at typical velocities of 2,000 km s(-1). The temporal proximity of the mass-loss outburst and the supernova explosion implies a causal connection between them. Moreover, we find that the outburst luminosity and velocity are consistent with the predictions of the wave-driven pulsation model, and disfavour alternative suggestions.
ABSTRACT Supernovae (SNe) embedded in dense circumstellar material (CSM) may show prominent emission lines in their early-time spectra (≤10 days after the explosion), owing to recombination of the ...CSM ionized by the shock-breakout flash. From such spectra ("flash spectroscopy"), we can measure various physical properties of the CSM, as well as the mass-loss rate of the progenitor during the year prior to its explosion. Searching through the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF and iPTF) SN spectroscopy databases from 2009 through 2014, we found 12 SNe II showing flash-ionized (FI) signatures in their first spectra. All are younger than 10 days. These events constitute 14% of all 84 SNe in our sample having a spectrum within 10 days from explosion, and 18% of SNe II observed at ages <5 days, thereby setting lower limits on the fraction of FI events. We classified as "blue/featureless" (BF) those events having a first spectrum that is similar to that of a blackbody, without any emission or absorption signatures. It is possible that some BF events had FI signatures at an earlier phase than observed, or that they lack dense CSM around the progenitor. Within 2 days after explosion, 8 out of 11 SNe in our sample are either BF events or show FI signatures. Interestingly, we found that 19 out of 21 SNe brighter than an absolute magnitude MR = −18.2 belong to the FI or BF groups, and that all FI events peaked above MR = −17.6 mag, significantly brighter than average SNe II.
Stars with initial masses such that 10 ≤ Minitial ≤ 100, where is the solar mass, fuse progressively heavier elements in their centres, until the core is inert iron. The core then gravitationally ...collapses to a neutron star or a black hole, leading to an explosion-an iron-core-collapse supernova. By contrast, extremely massive stars with Minitial ≥ 140 (if such exist) develop oxygen cores with masses, Mcore, that exceed 50, where high temperatures are reached at relatively low densities. Conversion of energetic, pressure-supporting photons into electron-positron pairs occurs before oxygen ignition and leads to a violent contraction which triggers a nuclear explosion that unbinds the star in a pair-instability supernova. Transitional objects with 100 < Minitial < 140 may end up as iron-core-collapse supernovae following violent mass ejections, perhaps as a result of brief episodes of pair instability, and may already have been identified. Here we report observations of supernova SN 2007bi, a luminous, slowly evolving object located within a dwarf galaxy. We estimate the exploding core mass to be Mcore 100, in which case theory unambiguously predicts a pair-instability supernova. We show that >3 of radioactive 56Ni was synthesized during the explosion and that our observations are well fitted by models of pair-instability supernovae. This indicates that nearby dwarf galaxies probably host extremely massive stars, above the apparent Galactic stellar mass limit, which perhaps result from processes similar to those that created the first stars in the Universe.
There is a consensus that type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) arise from the thermonuclear explosion of white dwarf stars that accrete matter from a binary companion. However, direct observation of SN Ia ...progenitors is lacking, and the precise nature of the binary companion remains uncertain. A temporal series of high-resolution optical spectra of the SN Ia PTF 11kx reveals a complex circumstellar environment that provides an unprecedentedly detailed view of the progenitor system. Multiple shells of circumstellar material are detected, and the SN ejecta are seen to interact with circumstellar material starting 59 days after the explosion. These features are best described by a symbiotic nova progenitor, similar to RS Ophiuchi.
The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report concludes that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could weaken substantially but is very unlikely to ...collapse in the 21st century. However, the assessment largely neglected Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss, lacked a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, and was limited to the 21st century. Here in a community effort, improved estimates of GrIS mass loss are included in multicentennial projections using eight state‐of‐the‐science climate models, and an AMOC emulator is used to provide a probabilistic uncertainty assessment. We find that GrIS melting affects AMOC projections, even though it is of secondary importance. By years 2090–2100, the AMOC weakens by 18% −3%, −34%; 90% probability in an intermediate greenhouse‐gas mitigation scenario and by 37% −15%, −65% under continued high emissions. Afterward, it stabilizes in the former but continues to decline in the latter to −74% +4%, −100% by 2290–2300, with a 44% likelihood of an AMOC collapse. This result suggests that an AMOC collapse can be avoided by CO2 mitigation.
Key Points
This is the first model intercomparison concerning climate change including Greenland melt and a probabilistic uncertainty assessment
Impact of Greenland melt on future overturning circulation is small but nonnegligible especially for high‐end global warming scenarios
Likelihood of a full overturning collapse remains exceptionally small if global warming is limited to less than 5 K
Basin-scale planning is needed to minimize impacts in mega-diverse rivers
The world's most biodiverse river basins—the Amazon, Congo, and Mekong—are experiencing an unprecedented boom in construction ...of hydropower dams. These projects address important energy needs, but advocates often overestimate economic benefits and underestimate far-reaching effects on biodiversity and critically important fisheries. Powerful new analytical tools and high-resolution environmental data can clarify trade-offs between engineering and environmental goals and can enable governments and funding institutions to compare alternative sites for dam building. Current site-specific assessment protocols largely ignore cumulative impacts on hydrology and ecosystem services as ever more dams are constructed within a watershed (
1
). To achieve true sustainability, assessments of new projects must go beyond local impacts by accounting for synergies with existing dams, as well as land cover changes and likely climatic shifts (
2
,
3
). We call for more sophisticated and holistic hydropower planning, including validation of technologies intended to mitigate environmental impacts. Should anything less be required when tampering with the world's great river ecosystems?
Early to Middle Miocene sea-level oscillations of approximately 40-60 m estimated from far-field records
are interpreted to reflect the loss of virtually all East Antarctic ice during peak warmth
. ...This contrasts with ice-sheet model experiments suggesting most terrestrial ice in East Antarctica was retained even during the warmest intervals of the Middle Miocene
. Data and model outputs can be reconciled if a large West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) existed and expanded across most of the outer continental shelf during the Early Miocene, accounting for maximum ice-sheet volumes. Here we provide the earliest geological evidence proving large WAIS expansions occurred during the Early Miocene (~17.72-17.40 Ma). Geochemical and petrographic data show glacimarine sediments recovered at International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Site U1521 in the central Ross Sea derive from West Antarctica, requiring the presence of a WAIS covering most of the Ross Sea continental shelf. Seismic, lithological and palynological data reveal the intermittent proximity of grounded ice to Site U1521. The erosion rate calculated from this sediment package greatly exceeds the long-term mean, implying rapid erosion of West Antarctica. This interval therefore captures a key step in the genesis of a marine-based WAIS and a tipping point in Antarctic ice-sheet evolution.
ABSTRACT
We present observations and analysis of 18 stripped-envelope supernovae observed during 2013–2018. This sample consists of five H/He-rich SNe, six H-poor/He-rich SNe, three narrow lined SNe ...Ic, and four broad lined SNe Ic. The peak luminosity and characteristic time-scales of the bolometric light curves are calculated, and the light curves modelled to derive 56Ni and ejecta masses (MNi and Mej). Additionally, the temperature evolution and spectral line velocity curves of each SN are examined. Analysis of the O i line in the nebular phase of eight SNe suggests their progenitors had initial masses <20 M⊙. The bolometric light curve properties are examined in combination with those of other SE events from the literature. The resulting data set gives the Mej distribution for 80 SE–SNe, the largest such sample in the literature to date, and shows that SNe Ib have the lowest median Mej, followed by narrow-lined SNe Ic, H/He-rich SNe, broad-lined SNe Ic, and finally gamma-ray burst SNe. SNe Ic-6/7 show the largest spread of Mej ranging from ∼1.2–11 M⊙, considerably greater than any other subtype. For all SE–SNe = 2.8 ± 1.5 M⊙ which further strengthens the evidence that SE–SNe arise from low-mass progenitors which are typically <5 M⊙ at the time of explosion, again suggesting MZAMS <25 M⊙. The low and lack of clear bimodality in the distribution implies <30 M⊙ progenitors and that envelope stripping via binary interaction is the dominant evolutionary pathway of these SNe.
BACKGROUNDMucosal melanoma (MM) is a rare melanoma subtype with distinct biology and poor prognosis. Data on the efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are limited. We determined the ...efficacy of ICIs in MM, analyzed by primary site and ethnicity/race. PATIENTS AND METHODSA retrospective cohort study from 25 cancer centers in Australia, Europe, USA and Asia was carried out. Patients with histologically confirmed MM were treated with anti-programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) ± ipilimumab. Primary endpoints were response rate (RR), progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS) by primary site (naso-oral, urogenital, anorectal, other), ethnicity/race (Caucasian, Asian, Other) and treatment. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards model analyses were conducted. RESULTSIn total, 545 patients were included: 331 (63%) Caucasian, 176 (33%) Asian and 20 (4%) Other. Primary sites included 113 (21%) anorectal, 178 (32%) urogenital, 206 (38%) naso-oral and 45 (8%) other. Three hundred and forty-eight (64%) patients received anti-PD-1 and 197 (36%) anti-PD-1/ipilimumab. RR, PFS and OS did not differ by primary site, ethnicity/race or treatment. RR for naso-oral was numerically higher for anti-PD-1/ipilimumab 40%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 29% to 54% compared with anti-PD-1 (29%, 95% CI 21% to 37%). Thirty-five percent of patients who initially responded progressed. The median duration of response (mDoR) was 26 months (95% CI 18 months-not reached). Factors associated with short PFS were Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status (PS) ≥3 (P < 0.01), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) more than the upper limit of normal (ULN) (P = 0.01), lung metastases (P < 0.01) and ≥1 previous treatments (P < 0.01). Factors associated with short OS were ECOG PS ≥1 (P < 0.01), LDH >ULN (P = 0.03), lung metastases (P < 0.01) and ≥1 previous treatments (P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONSMM has poor prognosis. Treatment efficacy of anti-PD-1 ± ipilimumab was similar and did not differ by ethnicity/race. Naso-oral primaries had numerically higher response to anti-PD-1/ipilimumab, without difference in survival. The addition of ipilimumab did not show greater benefit over anti-PD-1 for other primary sites. In responders, mDoR was short and acquired resistance was common. Other factors, including site and number of metastases, were associated with survival.
We present the results of time-integrated searches for astrophysical neutrino sources in both the northern and southern skies. Data were collected using the partially completed IceCube detector in ...the 40-string configuration recorded between 2008 April 5 and 2009 May 20, totaling 375.5 days livetime. An unbinned maximum likelihood ratio method is used to search for astrophysical signals. The data sample contains 36,900 events: 14,121 from the northern sky, mostly muons induced by atmospheric neutrinos, and 22,779 from the southern sky, mostly high-energy atmospheric muons. The analysis includes searches for individual point sources and stacked searches for sources in a common class, sometimes including a spatial extent. While this analysis is sensitive to TeV-PeV energy neutrinos in the northern sky, it is primarily sensitive to neutrinos with energy greater than about 1 PeV in the southern sky. No evidence for a signal is found in any of the searches. Limits are set for neutrino fluxes from astrophysical sources over the entire sky and compared to predictions. The sensitivity is at least a factor of two better than previous searches (depending on declination), with 90% confidence level muon neutrino flux upper limits being between E 2 d Delta *Q/dE ~ 2-200 X 10--12 TeV cm--2 s--1 in the northern sky and between 3-700 X 10--12 TeV cm--2 s--1 in the southern sky. The stacked source searches provide the best limits to specific source classes. The full IceCube detector is expected to improve the sensitivity to d Delta *Q/dEE --2 sources by another factor of two in the first year of operation.
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