Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. A warming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial ...breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.
Statistical tools of uncertainty quantification can be used to assess the information content of measured observables with respect to present-day theoretical models, to estimate model errors and ...thereby improve predictive capability, to extrapolate beyond the regions reached by experiment, and to provide meaningful input to applications and planned measurements. To showcase new opportunities offered by such tools, we make a rigorous analysis of theoretical statistical uncertainties in nuclear density functional theory using Bayesian inference methods. By considering the recent mass measurements from the Canadian Penning Trap at Argonne National Laboratory, we demonstrate how the Bayesian analysis and a direct least-squares optimization, combined with high-performance computing, can be used to assess the information content of the new data with respect to a model based on the Skyrme energy density functional approach. Employing the posterior probability distribution computed with a Gaussian process emulator, we apply the Bayesian framework to propagate theoretical statistical uncertainties in predictions of nuclear masses, two-neutron dripline, and fission barriers. Overall, we find that the new mass measurements do not impose a constraint that is strong enough to lead to significant changes in the model parameters. The example discussed in this study sets the stage for quantifying and maximizing the impact of new measurements with respect to current modeling and guiding future experimental efforts, thus enhancing the experiment-theory cycle in the scientific method.
The quark-line disconnected diagram is a potentially important ingredient in lattice QCD calculations of the hadronic vacuum polarization contribution to the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon. It ...is also a notoriously difficult one to evaluate. Here, for the first time, we give an estimate of this contribution based on lattice QCD results that have a statistically significant signal, albeit at one value of the lattice spacing and an unphysically heavy value of the u/d quark mass. We use HPQCD's method of determining the anomalous magnetic moment by reconstructing the Adler function from time moments of the current-current correlator at zero spatial momentum. Our results lead to a total (including u, d and s quarks) quark-line disconnected contribution to amu of -0.15% of the u/d hadronic vacuum polarization contribution with an uncertainty which is 1% of that contribution.
The silicon carbide fiber-reinforced silicon carbide matrix (SiC/SiC) composite system for fusion applications has seen a continual evolution from development a fundamental understanding of the ...material system and its behavior in a hostile irradiation environment to the current effort which is directed at a broad-based program of technology maturation program. In essence, over the past few decades this material system has steadily moved from a laboratory curiosity to an engineering material, both for fusion structural applications and other high performance application such as aerospace. This paper outlines the recent international scientific and technological achievements towards the development of SiC/SiC composite material technologies for fusion application and discusses future research directions. It also reviews the materials system in the larger context of progress to maturity as an engineering material for both the larger nuclear community and broader engineering applications.
Fornal and Grinstein recently proposed that the discrepancy between two different methods of neutron lifetime measurements, the beam and bottle methods, can be explained by a previously unobserved ...dark matter decay mode, n→X+γ. We perform a search for this decay mode over the allowed range of energies of the monoenergetic γ ray for X to be dark matter. A Compton-suppressed high-purity germanium detector is used to identify γ rays from neutron decay in a nickel-phosphorous-coated stainless-steel bottle. A combination of Monte Carlo and radioactive source calibrations is used to determine the absolute efficiency for detecting γ rays arising from the dark matter decay mode. We exclude the possibility of a sufficiently strong branch to explain the lifetime discrepancy with 97% confidence.
Abstract
We describe the Dark Energy Survey (DES) photometric data set assembled from the first three years of science operations to support DES Year 3 cosmologic analyses, and provide usage notes ...aimed at the broad astrophysics community.
Y3
GOLD
improves on previous releases from DES,
Y1
GOLD
, and Data Release 1 (DES DR1), presenting an expanded and curated data set that incorporates algorithmic developments in image detrending and processing, photometric calibration, and object classification.
Y3
GOLD
comprises nearly 5000 deg
2
of
grizY
imaging in the south Galactic cap, including nearly 390 million objects, with depth reaching a signal-to-noise ratio ∼10 for extended objects up to
i
AB
∼ 23.0, and top-of-the-atmosphere photometric uniformity <3 mmag. Compared to DR1, photometric residuals with respect to Gaia are reduced by 50%, and per-object chromatic corrections are introduced.
Y3
GOLD
augments DES DR1 with simultaneous fits to multi-epoch photometry for more robust galactic color measurements and corresponding photometric redshift estimates.
Y3
GOLD
features improved morphological star–galaxy classification with efficiency >98% and purity >99% for galaxies with 19 <
i
AB
< 22.5. Additionally, it includes per-object quality information, and accompanying maps of the footprint coverage, masked regions, imaging depth, survey conditions, and astrophysical foregrounds that are used to select the cosmologic analysis samples.
Kinematic source inversions of major (M≥7) strike‐slip earthquakes show that the slip at depth exceeds surface displacements measured in the field, and it has been suggested that this shallow slip ...deficit (SSD) is caused by distributed plastic deformation near the surface. We perform dynamic rupture simulations of M 7.2–7.4 earthquakes in elastoplastic media and analyze the sensitivity of SSD and off‐fault deformation (OFD) to rock quality parameters. While linear simulations clearly underpredict observed SSD and OFDs, nonlinear simulations for a moderately fractured fault damage zone predict a SSD of 44–53% and OFDs of 39–48%, consistent with the 30–60% SSD and 46 ± 10% (1σ) OFD reported for the 1992 M 7.3 Landers earthquake. Both SSD and OFDs are sensitive to the quality of the fractured rock mass inside the fault damage zone, and surface rupture is almost entirely suppressed in poor quality material.
Key Points
We perform dynamic rupture simulations of the 1992 Landers earthquake with inelastic response in the fault damage zone
Plastic yielding in fractured fault zones results in a shallow slip deficit of approximately 25‐95% and off‐fault deformations between approximately 20 and 90%
Simulated off‐fault deformations obtained for moderately fractured rocks are consistent with values reported from aerial image correlations
Observational meteorological data from the field
experiment GoAmazon 2014/15 and data from numerical simulations with the
cloud-resolving model (CRM) called the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) ...are
used to study the interaction between the cloudiness–radiation as well as the
atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics variables for a site located in the
central Amazon region (−3.2∘ S, −60.6∘ W) during the wet
and dry periods. The main aims are to (a) analyze the temporal series of the
integrated cloud fraction, precipitation rate and downward shortwave flux
as well as (b) to determine the relationship between the integrated cloud fraction,
radiative fluxes and large-scale variable anomalies as a function of the
previous day's average. The temporal series of the integrated cloud
fraction, precipitation rate and downward shortwave flux from SAM
simulations showed physical consistency with the observations from GoAmazon
2014/15. Shallow and deep convection clouds show to have a meaningful impact
on radiation fluxes in the Amazon region during wet and dry periods.
Anomalies of large-scale variables (relative to the previous day's average)
are physically associated with cloud formation, evolution and dissipation.
SAM consistently simulated these results, where the cloud fraction vertical
profile shows a pattern very close to the observed data (cloud type).
Additionally, the integrated cloud fraction and large-scale variable
anomalies, as a function of the previous day's average, have a good
correlation. These results suggest that the memory of the large-scale
dynamics from the previous day can be used to estimate the cloud fraction as
well as the water content, which is a variable of the cloud itself. In
general, the SAM satisfactorily simulated the interaction between
cloud–radiation as well as dynamic and thermodynamic variables of the atmosphere
during the periods of this study, being able to obtain atmospheric
variables that are impossible to obtain in an observational way.
This paper documents the biogeochemistry configuration of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), E3SMv1.1‐BGC. The model simulates historical carbon cycle dynamics, including carbon losses ...predicted in response to land use and land cover change, and the responses of the carbon cycle to changes in climate. In addition, we introduce several innovations in the treatment of soil nutrient limitation mechanisms, including explicit dependence on phosphorus availability. The suite of simulations described here includes E3SM contributions to the Coupled Climate‐Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project and other projects, as well as simulations to explore the impacts of structural uncertainty in representations of nitrogen and phosphorus limitation. We describe the model spin‐up and evaluation procedures, provide an overview of results from the simulation campaign, and highlight key features of the simulations. Cumulative warming over the twentieth century is similar to observations, with a midcentury cold bias offset by stronger warming in recent decades. Ocean biomass production and carbon uptake are underpredicted, likely due to biases in ocean transport leading to widespread anoxia and undersupply of nutrients to surface waters. The inclusion of nutrient limitations in the land biogeochemistry results in weaker carbon fertilization and carbon‐climate feedbacks than exhibited by other Earth System Models that exclude those limitations. Finally, we compare with an alternative representation of terrestrial biogeochemistry, which differs in structure and in initialization of soil phosphorus. While both configurations agree well with observational benchmarks, they differ significantly in their distribution of carbon among different pools and in the strength of nutrient limitations.
Plain Language Summary
A new state‐of‐the‐art Earth System Model has been funded by the United States Department of Energy (DOE) to explore questions relevant to DOE's mission. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1.1 (E3SMv1.1) represents nitrogen and phosphorous controls on the carbon cycle and extends the recently released E3SMv1 to include active biogeochemistry in the land, ocean, and ice components. E3SMv1.1 also includes an alternative representation of terrestrial carbon and nutrient cycles that is used to explore model structural uncertainties. E3SMv1.1's capabilities are demonstrated through a set of experiments described by the Coupled Climate‐Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project, aimed at understanding the influence of changes in climate and CO2 on the carbon cycle. Simulations of the land surface properties and terrestrial carbon cycle compare well with observations, as does the simulated global and regional climate. Nutrient limitations result in less land carbon uptake compared to models that exclude these limitations. However, variations in model structure and initialization influence the magnitude of those limitations and carbon cycle dynamics. The ocean biogeochemistry in E3SMv1.1 simulates less biomass and slightly lower anthropogenic carbon uptake than is observed. Future efforts will aim to reduce model biases as well as to include additional aspects of global carbon cycle dynamics.
Key Points
Introduces the U.S. DOE's Energy Exascale Earth System Model‐Biogeochemistry version, E3SMv1.1‐BGC, is introduced
Ecosystem‐climate responses are characterized in a standard set of C4MIP‐type simulations
The impacts of terrestrial nitrogen and phosphorus limitations and their structural uncertainties are explored
Social-ecological network (SEN) concepts and tools are increasingly used in human-environment and sustainability sciences. We take stock of this budding research area to further show the strength of ...SEN analysis for complex human-environment settings, identify future synergies between SEN and wider human-environment research, and provide guidance about when to use different kinds of SEN approaches and models. We characterize SEN research along a spectrum specifying the degree of explicit network representation of system components and dynamics. We then systematically review one end of this spectrum, what we term 'fully articulated SEN' studies, which specifically model unique social and ecological units and relationships. Results show a larger number of papers focus on methodological advancement and applied ends. While there has been some development and testing of theories, this remains an area for future work and would help develop SENs as a unique field of research, not just a method. Authors have studied diverse systems, while mainly focusing on the problem of social-ecological fit alongside a scattering of other topics. There is strong potential, however, to engage other issues central to human-environment studies. Analyzing the simultaneous effects of multiple social, environmental, and coupled processes, change over time, and linking network structures to outcomes are also areas for future advancement. This review provides a comprehensive assessment of (fully articulated) SEN research, a necessary step that can help scholars develop comparable cases and fill research gaps.
PDF
