Abstract
Background
Since the early 1980s, papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) incidence rates and the prevalence of obesity, a risk factor for PTC, have increased substantially in the United States. We ...estimated the proportion of PTC incidence in the United States attributable to overweight and obesity during 1995–2015.
Methods
National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study cohort data (n = 457 331 participants, 50–71 years and cancer-free at baseline) were used to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for PTC across body mass index categories. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated using estimated hazard ratios and annual overweight and obesity prevalence estimates from the National Health Interview Survey. PAF estimates were combined with Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-13 data to calculate annual percent changes in PTC incidence rates attributable (and unrelated) to overweight and obesity.
Results
Overweight (25.0–29.0 kg/m2) and obesity (≥30.0 kg/m2) were associated with 1.26-fold (95% confidence interval CI = 1.05- to 1.52-fold) and 1.30-fold (95% CI = 1.05- to 1.62-fold) increased risks of PTC, respectively, and nearly threefold (HR = 2.93, 95% CI = 1.25 to 6.87) and greater than fivefold (HR = 5.42, 95% CI = 2.24 to 13.1) increased risks of large (>4 cm) PTCs compared with normal weight (18.5–24.9 kg/m2). During 1995–2015, PAF estimates for overweight and obesity increased from 11.4% to 16.2% for all PTCs and from 51.4% to 63.2% for large PTCs. Overweight or obesity accounted for 13.6% and 57.8% of the annual percent changes in total (5.9%/y) and large (4.5%/y) PTC incidence rates, respectively, during 1995–2015.
Conclusions
Overweight and obesity may have contributed importantly to the rapid rise in PTC incidence during 1995–2015. By 2015, we estimate that one of every six PTCs diagnosed among adults 60 years or older, including nearly two-thirds of large PTCs, were attributable to overweight and obesity.
Telomeres shorten with each cell division and are essential for chromosomal stability. Short telomeres in surrogate tissues (e.g., blood cells) are associated with increased cancer risk in several ...case-control studies, but findings are inconsistent in prospective studies.
We systematically reviewed studies published prior to August 30, 2010, on the association between telomere length (TL) in surrogate tissues and cancer. There were 27 reports on 13 cancers and/or incident cancer investigating this association. The majority, 16, were retrospective case--control studies, 11 were prospective studies. Meta-analyses were conducted to determine ORs and 95% CIs for these studies.
Studies on bladder, esophageal, gastric, head and neck, ovarian, renal, and overall incident cancer found associations between short telomeres and these cancers. Non-Hodgkin lymphoma, breast, lung, and colorectal cancer reports were inconsistent. Single studies on endometrial, prostate, and skin cancers were null. In a random-effects meta-analysis, short TL was significantly associated with cancer in retrospective studies (pooled OR for the shortest TL quartile compared with the longest: 2.9, 95% CI: 1.75-4.8, P < 0.0001). The pooled OR for prospective studies was 1.16 (95% CI: 0.87-1.54, P = 0.32). All studies combined yielded a pooled OR of 1.96 (95% CI: 1.37-2.81, P = 0.0001) for the association of short TL and cancer.
There is suggestive evidence that short surrogate tissue TL is associated with cancer; the strongest evidence exists for bladder, esophageal, gastric, and renal cancers. Additional prospective studies with consistent methodology are needed to confirm this hypothesis.
HIV-infected people have elevated risk for some cancers. Changing incidence of these cancers over time may reflect changes in three factors: HIV population demographic structure (e.g. age ...distribution), general population (background) cancer rates, and HIV-associated relative risks. We assessed the contributions of these factors to time trends for 10 cancers during 1996-2010.
Population-based registry linkage study.
We applied Poisson models to data from the U.S. HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study to estimate annual percentage changes (APCs) in incidence rates of AIDS-defining cancers ADCs: Kaposi sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), and cervical cancer and seven non-AIDS-defining cancers (NADCs). We evaluated HIV-infected cancer trends with and without adjustment for demographics, trends in background rates, and trends in standardized incidence ratios (SIRs, to capture relative risk).
Cancer rates among HIV-infected people rose over time for anal (APC 3.8%), liver (8.5%), and prostate (9.8%) cancers, but declined for Kaposi sarcoma (1996-2000: -29.3%; 2000-2010: -7.8%), NHL (1996-2003: -15.7%; 2003-2010: -5.5%), cervical cancer (-11.1%), Hodgkin lymphoma (-4.0%), and lung cancer (-2.8%). Breast and colorectal cancer incidence did not change over time. Based on comparison to adjusted models, changing demographics contributed to trends for Kaposi sarcoma and breast, colorectal, liver, lung, and prostate cancers (all P < 0.01). Trends in background rates were notable for liver (APC 5.6%) and lung (-3.2%) cancers. SIRs declined for ADCs, Hodgkin lymphoma (APC -3.2%), and lung cancer (-4.4%).
Demographic shifts influenced several cancer trends among HIV-infected individuals. Falling relative risks largely explained ADC declines, while background incidence contributed to some NADC trends.
U.S. breast cancer incidence has been changing, as have distributions of risk factors, including body mass index (BMI), age at menarche, age at first live birth, and number of live births.
Using data ...for U.S. women from large nationally representative surveys, we estimated risk factor distributions from 1980 to 2008. To estimate ecologic associations with breast cancer incidence, we fitted Poisson models to age- and calendar year-specific incidence data from the NCI's Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results registries from 1980 to 2011. We then assessed the proportion of incidence attributable to specific risk factors by comparing incidence from models that only included age and calendar period as predictors with models that additionally included age- and cohort-specific categorized mean risk factors. Analyses were stratified by age and race.
Ecologic associations usually agreed with previous findings from analytic epidemiology. From 1980 to 2011, compared with the risk factor reference level, increased BMI was associated with 7.6% decreased incidence in women ages 40 to 44 and 2.6% increased incidence for women ages 55 to 59. Fewer births were associated with 22.2% and 3.99% increased incidence in women ages 40 to 44 and 55 to 59 years, respectively. Changes in age at menarche and age at first live birth in parous women did not significantly impact population incidence from 1980 to 2011.
Changes in BMI and number of births since 1980 significantly impacted U.S. breast cancer incidence.
Quantifying long-term impact of risk factor trends on incidence is important to understand the future breast cancer burden and inform prevention efforts.
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Summary
It is suspected that primary central nervous system lymphoma (PCNSL) rates are increasing among immunocompetent people. We estimated PCNSL trends in incidence and survival among ...immunocompetent persons by excluding cases among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)‐infected persons and transplant recipients. PCNSL data were derived from 10 Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) cancer registries (1992–2011). HIV‐infected cases had reported HIV infection or death due to HIV. Transplant recipient cases were estimated from the Transplant Cancer Match Study. We estimated PCNSL trends overall and among immunocompetent individuals, and survival by HIV status. A total of 4158 PCNSLs were diagnosed (36% HIV‐infected; 0·9% transplant recipients). HIV prevalence in PCNSL cases declined from 64·1% (1992–1996) to 12·7% (2007–2011), while the prevalence of transplant recipients remained low. General population PCNSL rates were strongly influenced by immunosuppressed cases, particularly in 20–39 year‐old men. Among immunocompetent people, PCNSL rates in men and women aged 65+ years increased significantly (1·7% and 1·6%/year), but remained stable in other age groups. Five‐year survival was poor, particularly among HIV‐infected cases (9·0%). Among HIV‐uninfected cases, 5‐year survival increased from 19·1% (1992–1994) to 30·1% (2004–2006). In summary, PCNSL rates have increased among immunocompetent elderly adults, but not in younger individuals. Survival remains poor for both HIV‐infected and HIV‐uninfected PCNSL patients.
Nearly 900 000 people in the United States are living with diagnosed human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and therefore increased cancer risk. The total number of cancers occurring among ...HIV-infected people and the excess number above expected background cases are unknown.
We derived cancer incidence rates for the United States HIV-infected and general populations from Poisson models applied to linked HIV and cancer registry data and from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program data, respectively. We applied these rates to estimates of people living with diagnosed HIV at mid-year 2010 to estimate total and expected cancer counts, respectively. We subtracted expected from total cancers to estimate excess cancers.
An estimated 7760 (95% confidence interval CI = 7330 to 8320) cancers occurred in 2010 among HIV-infected people, of which 3920 cancers (95% CI = 3480 to 4470) or 50% (95% CI = 48 to 54%) were in excess of expected. The most common excess cancers were non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL; n = 1440 excess cancers, occurring in 88% excess), Kaposi's sarcoma (KS, n = 910, 100% excess), anal cancer (n = 740, 97% excess), and lung cancer (n = 440, 52% excess). The proportion of excess cancers that were AIDS defining (ie, KS, NHL, cervical cancer) declined with age and time since AIDS diagnosis (both P < .001). For anal cancer, 83% of excess cases occurred among men who have sex with men, and 71% among those living five or more years since AIDS onset. Among injection drug users, 22% of excess cancers were lung cancer, and 16% were liver cancer.
The excess cancer burden in the US HIV population is substantial, and patterns across groups highlight opportunities for cancer control initiatives targeted to HIV-infected people.
Motivation: In genomic studies, thousands of features are collected on relatively few samples. One of the goals of these studies is to build classifiers to predict the outcome of future observations. ...There are three inherent steps to this process: feature selection, model selection and prediction assessment. With a focus on prediction assessment, we compare several methods for estimating the ‘true’ prediction error of a prediction model in the presence of feature selection. Results: For small studies where features are selected from thousands of candidates, the resubstitution and simple split-sample estimates are seriously biased. In these small samples, leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV), 10-fold cross-validation (CV) and the .632+ bootstrap have the smallest bias for diagonal discriminant analysis, nearest neighbor and classification trees. LOOCV and 10-fold CV have the smallest bias for linear discriminant analysis. Additionally, LOOCV, 5- and 10-fold CV, and the .632+ bootstrap have the lowest mean square error. The .632+ bootstrap is quite biased in small sample sizes with strong signal-to-noise ratios. Differences in performance among resampling methods are reduced as the number of specimens available increase. Contact: annette.molinaro@yale.edu Supplementary Information: A complete compilation of results and R code for simulations and analyses are available in Molinaro et al. (2005) (http://linus.nci.nih.gov/brb/TechReport.htm).
Solid organ transplant recipients have elevated cancer risk due to immunosuppression and oncogenic viral infections. Because most prior research has concerned kidney recipients, large studies that ...include recipients of differing organs can inform cancer etiology.
To describe the overall pattern of cancer following solid organ transplantation.
Cohort study using linked data on solid organ transplant recipients from the US Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (1987-2008) and 13 state and regional cancer registries.
Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and excess absolute risks (EARs) assessing relative and absolute cancer risk in transplant recipients compared with the general population.
The registry linkages yielded data on 175,732 solid organ transplants (58.4% for kidney, 21.6% for liver, 10.0% for heart, and 4.0% for lung). The overall cancer risk was elevated with 10,656 cases and an incidence of 1375 per 100,000 person-years (SIR, 2.10 95% CI, 2.06-2.14; EAR, 719.3 95% CI, 693.3-745.6 per 100,000 person-years). Risk was increased for 32 different malignancies, some related to known infections (eg, anal cancer, Kaposi sarcoma) and others unrelated (eg, melanoma, thyroid and lip cancers). The most common malignancies with elevated risk were non-Hodgkin lymphoma (n = 1504; incidence: 194.0 per 100,000 person-years; SIR, 7.54 95% CI, 7.17-7.93; EAR, 168.3 95% CI, 158.6-178.4 per 100,000 person-years) and cancers of the lung (n = 1344; incidence: 173.4 per 100,000 person-years; SIR, 1.97 95% CI, 1.86-2.08; EAR, 85.3 95% CI, 76.2-94.8 per 100,000 person-years), liver (n = 930; incidence: 120.0 per 100,000 person-years; SIR, 11.56 95% CI, 10.83-12.33; EAR, 109.6 95% CI, 102.0-117.6 per 100,000 person-years), and kidney (n = 752; incidence: 97.0 per 100,000 person-years; SIR, 4.65 95% CI, 4.32-4.99; EAR, 76.1 95% CI, 69.3-83.3 per 100,000 person-years). Lung cancer risk was most elevated in lung recipients (SIR, 6.13 95% CI, 5.18-7.21) but also increased among other recipients (kidney: SIR, 1.46 95% CI, 1.34-1.59; liver: SIR, 1.95 95% CI, 1.74-2.19; and heart: SIR, 2.67 95% CI, 2.40-2.95). Liver cancer risk was elevated only among liver recipients (SIR, 43.83 95% CI, 40.90-46.91), who manifested exceptional risk in the first 6 months (SIR, 508.97 95% CI, 474.16-545.66) and a 2-fold excess risk for 10 to 15 years thereafter (SIR, 2.22 95% CI, 1.57-3.04). Among kidney recipients, kidney cancer risk was elevated (SIR, 6.66 95% CI, 6.12-7.23) and bimodal in onset time. Kidney cancer risk also was increased in liver recipients (SIR, 1.80 95% CI, 1.40-2.29) and heart recipients (SIR, 2.90 95% CI, 2.32-3.59).
Compared with the general population, recipients of a kidney, liver, heart, or lung transplant have an increased risk for diverse infection-related and unrelated cancers.
The breast stromal microenvironment is a pivotal factor in breast cancer development, growth and metastases. Although pathologists often detect morphologic changes in stroma by light microscopy, ...visual classification of such changes is subjective and non-quantitative, limiting its diagnostic utility. To gain insights into stromal changes associated with breast cancer, we applied automated machine learning techniques to digital images of 2387 hematoxylin and eosin stained tissue sections of benign and malignant image-guided breast biopsies performed to investigate mammographic abnormalities among 882 patients, ages 40–65 years, that were enrolled in the Breast Radiology Evaluation and Study of Tissues (BREAST) Stamp Project. Using deep convolutional neural networks, we trained an algorithm to discriminate between stroma surrounding invasive cancer and stroma from benign biopsies. In test sets (928 whole-slide images from 330 patients), this algorithm could distinguish biopsies diagnosed as invasive cancer from benign biopsies solely based on the stromal characteristics (area under the receiver operator characteristics curve = 0.962). Furthermore, without being trained specifically using ductal carcinoma in situ as an outcome, the algorithm detected tumor-associated stroma in greater amounts and at larger distances from grade 3 versus grade 1 ductal carcinoma in situ. Collectively, these results suggest that algorithms based on deep convolutional neural networks that evaluate only stroma may prove useful to classify breast biopsies and aid in understanding and evaluating the biology of breast lesions.
Recent increases in incidence and survival of oropharyngeal cancers in the United States have been attributed to human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, but empirical evidence is lacking.
HPV status ...was determined for all 271 oropharyngeal cancers (1984-2004) collected by the three population-based cancer registries in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Residual Tissue Repositories Program by using polymerase chain reaction and genotyping (Inno-LiPA), HPV16 viral load, and HPV16 mRNA expression. Trends in HPV prevalence across four calendar periods were estimated by using logistic regression. Observed HPV prevalence was reweighted to all oropharyngeal cancers within the cancer registries to account for nonrandom selection and to calculate incidence trends. Survival of HPV-positive and HPV-negative patients was compared by using Kaplan-Meier and multivariable Cox regression analyses.
HPV prevalence in oropharyngeal cancers significantly increased over calendar time regardless of HPV detection assay (P trend < .05). For example, HPV prevalence by Inno-LiPA increased from 16.3% during 1984 to 1989 to 71.7% during 2000 to 2004. Median survival was significantly longer for HPV-positive than for HPV-negative patients (131 v 20 months; log-rank P < .001; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.31; 95% CI, 0.21 to 0.46). Survival significantly increased across calendar periods for HPV-positive (P = .003) but not for HPV-negative patients (P = .18). Population-level incidence of HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancers increased by 225% (95% CI, 208% to 242%) from 1988 to 2004 (from 0.8 per 100,000 to 2.6 per 100,000), and incidence for HPV-negative cancers declined by 50% (95% CI, 47% to 53%; from 2.0 per 100,000 to 1.0 per 100,000). If recent incidence trends continue, the annual number of HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancers is expected to surpass the annual number of cervical cancers by the year 2020.
Increases in the population-level incidence and survival of oropharyngeal cancers in the United States since 1984 are caused by HPV infection.
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