Microtargeting for conservation Metcalf, Alexander L.; Phelan, Conor N.; Pallai, Cassandra ...
Conservation biology,
October 2019, Letnik:
33, Številka:
5
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Widespread human action and behavior change is needed to achieve many conservation goals. Doing so at the requisite scale and pace will require the efficient delivery of outreach campaigns. ...Conservation gains will be greatest when efforts are directed toward places of high conservation value (or need) and tailored to critical actors. Recent strategic conservation planning has relied primarily on spatial assessments of biophysical attributes, largely ignoring the human dimensions. Elsewhere, marketers, political campaigns, and others use microtargeting—predictive analytics of big data—to identify people most likely to respond positively to particular messages or interventions. Conservationists have not yet widely capitalized on these techniques. To investigate the effectiveness of microtargeting to improve conservation, we developed a propensity model to predict restoration behavior among 203,645 private landowners in a 5,200,000 ha study area in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (U.S.A.). To isolate the additional value microtargeting may offer beyond geospatial prioritization, we analyzed a new high‐resolution land‐cover data set and cadastral data to identify private owners of riparian areas needing restoration. Subsequently, we developed and evaluated a restoration propensity model based on a database of landowners who had conducted restoration in the past and those who had not (n = 4978). Model validation in a parallel database (n = 4989) showed owners with the highest scorers for propensity to conduct restoration (i.e., top decile) were over twice as likely as average landowners to have conducted restoration (135%). These results demonstrate that microtargeting techniques can dramatically increase the efficiency and efficacy of conservation programs, above and beyond the advances offered by biophysical prioritizations alone, as well as facilitate more robust research of many social–ecological systems.
Micro‐focalización para la Conservación
Resumen
Se necesitan acciones humanas diseminadas y un cambio en el comportamiento para lograr muchos objetivos de conservación. Que se logre esto a la escala y al ritmo requerido requerirá de la entrega eficiente de las campañas de participación. Las ganancias de la conservación serán mayores cuando los esfuerzos estén dirigidos hacia sitios con un alto valor (o necesidad) de conservación y estén personalizados para los actores más importantes. La reciente planeación estratégica de la conservación ha dependido principalmente de las evaluaciones espaciales de los atributos biofísicos, ignorando generalmente las dimensiones humanas. En otros ámbitos, los mercadólogos, las campañas políticas, así como otros, usan la micro‐focalización – el análisis predictivo de datos masivos – para identificar a las personas con mayor probabilidad de responder positivamente a mensajes o intervenciones particulares. Los conservacionistas todavía no han capitalizado extensamente estas técnicas. Desarrollamos un modelo de tendencia para predecir el comportamiento de restauración entre 203,645 terratenientes privados en un área de estudio de 5,200,000 ha en la cuenca de la Bahía de Chesapeake (E.U.A.) y así investigar la eficiencia de la micro‐focalización en el aumento de la conservación. Para aislar el valor adicional que puede ofrecer la micro‐focalización más allá de la priorización geoespacial, analizamos un nuevo conjunto de alta resolución de datos sobre la cobertura del suelo y datos catastrales para identificar a los terratenientes privados de áreas ribereñas que necesitan restauración. Después de esto, desarrollamos y evaluamos el modelo de tendencia a la restauración basado en una base de datos de terratenientes que han realizado restauraciones en el pasado y aquellos que no (n = 4,978). La validación del modelo en una base de datos paralela (n = 4,989) mostró que los terratenientes con los puntajes más altos para la tendencia a la restauración (es decir, el decil superior) tenían el doble de probabilidad de haber realizado acciones de conservación que el terrateniente promedio (135%). Estos resultados muestran que las técnicas de micro‐focalización pueden incrementar dramáticamente la eficiencia y la eficacia de los programas de conservación, más allá de los avances ofrecidos sólo por las priorizaciones biofísicas, así como facilitar la investigación más sólida sobre muchos sistemas socio‐ecológicos.
摘要
许多保护目标的实现都需要广泛的行动和行为转变, 要以必要的规模和速度完成这些转变, 则需要有效开展宣传活动。只有在开展工作时针对具有高保护价值 (或需求) 的地区和关键的实践者, 才能取得最大的保护成效。然而, 近期的战略保护规划主要依赖于对生物物理属性的空间尺度评估, 在很大程度上忽略了人类因素。而在如市场营销、政治活动和其它领域常用微目标的方法 (即大数据预测分析) 来识别最有可能对特定信息或干预措施作出积极响应的人群。这样的方法在保护实践者中尚未被广泛采用。为了研究微目标是否有助于保护, 我们开发了一个偏好模型来预测美国切萨皮克海湾流域 (Chesapeake Bay Watershed) 5,200,000公顷的研究区域内, 203,645名私有土地拥有者的生态恢复行为。为了确定在地理空间保护优先级划分之外, 微目标的方法可能提供的额外价值, 我们利用一套新的高精度土地覆盖数据集和地籍数据找出了需要恢复的河岸区域土地拥有者。接下来, 我们开发并评估了一个恢复偏好模型, 该模型是基于曾经进行过恢复的土地拥有者和没有进行过恢复的土地拥有者的数据库 (n = 4,978) 构建的。平行数据库 (n = 4,989) 的模型验证表明, 进行恢复的倾向性得分最高的土地拥有者 ( 前百分之十) 采取恢复行动的可能性是平均得分的土地拥有者的两倍多 (135%) 。这些结果表明, 微目标方法可以大大提高保护项目的效率和效能, 其意义超越单一的生物物理保护优先级划分, 且可以推动许多社会生态系统的有力研究。【翻译: 胡怡思; 审校: 聂永刚】
Article impact statement: Microtargeting boosts conservation impact by finding willing partners and individualizing behavior‐change interventions.
Successful conservation in the United States relies on collective stewardship by millions of private landowners, challenging those agencies and nongovernment organizations tasked with engagement and ...outreach. Perennially limited resources compound this challenge, highlighting a deep need for efficient social marketing. In the following research, we test the efficacy of two social marketing strategies—microtargeting and normative appeals—through a randomized controlled trial of an integrated social marketing campaign targeting riparian landowners in the Pennsylvania portion of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. We used a microtargeting algorithm to predict landowners’ likelihood of responding to a conservation outreach campaign to create treatment groups of high-likelihood prospects versus random prospects (i.e., no microtargeting). A normative appeal was also included as an experimental factor in the campaign communicating that forested riparian buffer investments were common among similar landowners. Among microtargeted landowners, we observed a 66% increase in response to a riparian restoration survey compared to the control group. Additionally, we found a significant influence of a normative message among random (nonmicrotargeted) prospects, increasing response by 23% over the control group. We conclude conservation outcomes may be more efficiently achieved by deploying these marketing techniques on a wider scale to a variety of conservation challenges.
Abstract
The solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) that forms on Li-ion battery anodes is critical to their long-term performance, however observing SEI formation processes at the buried ...electrode-electrolyte interface is a significant challenge. Here we show that
operando
soft X-ray absorption spectroscopy in total electron yield mode can resolve the chemical evolution of the SEI during electrochemical formation in a Li-ion cell, with nm-scale interface sensitivity. O, F, and Si K-edge spectra, acquired as a function of potential, reveal when key reactions occur on high-capacity amorphous Si anodes cycled with and without fluoroethylene carbonate (FEC). The sequential formation of inorganic (LiF) and organic (-(C=O)O-) components is thereby revealed, and results in layering of the SEI. The addition of FEC leads to SEI formation at higher potentials which is implicated in the rapid healing of SEI defects and the improved cycling performance observed.
Operando
TEY-XAS offers new insights into the formation mechanisms of electrode-electrolyte interphases and their stability for a wide variety of electrode materials and electrolyte formulations.
The cathode–electrolyte interphase (CEI) in Li-ion batteries plays a key role in suppressing undesired side reactions while facilitating Li-ion transport. Ni-rich layered cathode materials offer ...improved energy densities, but their high interfacial reactivities can negatively impact the cycle life and rate performance. Here we investigate the role of electrolyte salt concentration, specifically LiPF6 (0.5–5 m), in altering the interfacial reactivity of charged LiN0.8Mn0.1Co0.1O2 (NMC811) cathodes in standard carbonate-based electrolytes (EC/EMC vol %/vol % 3:7). Extended potential holds of NMC811/Li4Ti5O12 (LTO) cells reveal that the parasitic electrolyte oxidation currents observed are strongly dependent on the electrolyte salt concentration. X-ray photoelectron and absorption spectroscopy (XPS/XAS) reveal that a thicker Li x PO y F z -/LiF-rich CEI is formed in the higher concentration electrolytes. This suppresses reactions with solvent molecules resulting in a thinner, or less-dense, reduced surface layer (RSL) with lower charge transfer resistance and lower oxidation currents at high potentials. The thicker CEI also limits access of acidic species to the RSL suppressing transition-metal dissolution into the electrolyte, as confirmed by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy and inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES). This provides insight into the main degradation processes occurring at Ni-rich cathode interfaces in contact with carbonate-based electrolytes and how electrolyte formulation can help to mitigate these.
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