The global land and ocean carbon sinks have increased proportionally with increasing carbon dioxide emissions during the past decades. It is thought that Northern Hemisphere lands make a dominant ...contribution to the global land carbon sink; however, the long-term trend of the northern land sink remains uncertain. Here, using measurements of the interhemispheric gradient of atmospheric carbon dioxide from 1958 to 2016, we show that the northern land sink remained stable between the 1960s and the late 1980s, then increased by 0.5 ± 0.4 petagrams of carbon per year during the 1990s and by 0.6 ± 0.5 petagrams of carbon per year during the 2000s. The increase of the northern land sink in the 1990s accounts for 65% of the increase in the global land carbon flux during that period. The subsequent increase in the 2000s is larger than the increase in the global land carbon flux, suggesting a coincident decrease of carbon uptake in the Southern Hemisphere. Comparison of our findings with the simulations of an ensemble of terrestrial carbon models over the same period suggests that the decadal change in the northern land sink between the 1960s and the 1990s can be explained by a combination of increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate variability and changes in land cover. However, the increase during the 2000s is underestimated by all models, which suggests the need for improved consideration of changes in drivers such as nitrogen deposition, diffuse light and land-use change. Overall, our findings underscore the importance of Northern Hemispheric land as a carbon sink.
This study tests the ability of five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), forced with observed climatology and atmospheric CO₂, to model the contemporary global carbon cycle. The DGVMs are also ...coupled to a fast 'climate analogue model', based on the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (GCM), and run into the future for four Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES): A1FI, A2, B1, B2. Results show that all DGVMs are consistent with the contemporary global land carbon budget. Under the more extreme projections of future environmental change, the responses of the DGVMs diverge markedly. In particular, large uncertainties are associated with the response of tropical vegetation to drought and boreal ecosystems to elevated temperatures and changing soil moisture status. The DGVMs show more divergence in their response to regional changes in climate than to increases in atmospheric CO₂ content. All models simulate a release of land carbon in response to climate, when physiological effects of elevated atmospheric CO₂ on plant production are not considered, implying a positive terrestrial climate-carbon cycle feedback. All DGVMs simulate a reduction in global net primary production (NPP) and a decrease in soil residence time in the tropics and extra-tropics in response to future climate. When both counteracting effects of climate and atmospheric CO₂ on ecosystem function are considered, all the DGVMs simulate cumulative net land carbon uptake over the 21st century for the four SRES emission scenarios. However, for the most extreme A1FI emissions scenario, three out of five DGVMs simulate an annual net source of CO₂ from the land to the atmosphere in the final decades of the 21st century. For this scenario, cumulative land uptake differs by 494 Pg C among DGVMs over the 21st century. This uncertainty is equivalent to over 50 years of anthropogenic emissions at current levels.
Ecology Letters (2012)
Trees with sufficient nutrition are known to allocate carbon preferentially to aboveground plant parts. Our global study of 49 forests revealed an even more fundamental carbon ...allocation response to nutrient availability: forests with high‐nutrient availability use 58 ± 3% (mean ± SE; 17 forests) of their photosynthates for plant biomass production (BP), while forests with low‐nutrient availability only convert 42 ± 2% (mean ± SE; 19 forests) of annual photosynthates to biomass. This nutrient effect largely overshadows previously observed differences in carbon allocation patterns among climate zones, forest types and age classes. If forests with low‐nutrient availability use 16 ± 4% less of their photosynthates for plant growth, what are these used for? Current knowledge suggests that lower BP per unit photosynthesis in forests with low‐ versus forests with high‐nutrient availability reflects not merely an increase in plant respiration, but likely results from reduced carbon allocation to unaccounted components of net primary production, particularly root symbionts.
The land and ocean absorb on average just over half of the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) every year. These CO2 "sinks" are modulated by climate change and variability. Here we use a ...suite of nine dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and four ocean biogeochemical general circulation models (OBGCMs) to estimate trends driven by global and regional climate and atmospheric CO2 in land and oceanic CO2 exchanges with the atmosphere over the period 1990–2009, to attribute these trends to underlying processes in the models, and to quantify the uncertainty and level of inter-model agreement. The models were forced with reconstructed climate fields and observed global atmospheric CO2; land use and land cover changes are not included for the DGVMs. Over the period 1990–2009, the DGVMs simulate a mean global land carbon sink of −2.4 ± 0.7 Pg C yr−1 with a small significant trend of −0.06 ± 0.03 Pg C yr−2 (increasing sink). Over the more limited period 1990–2004, the ocean models simulate a mean ocean sink of −2.2 ± 0.2 Pg C yr−1 with a trend in the net C uptake that is indistinguishable from zero (−0.01 ± 0.02 Pg C yr−2). The two ocean models that extended the simulations until 2009 suggest a slightly stronger, but still small, trend of −0.02 ± 0.01 Pg C yr−2. Trends from land and ocean models compare favourably to the land greenness trends from remote sensing, atmospheric inversion results, and the residual land sink required to close the global carbon budget. Trends in the land sink are driven by increasing net primary production (NPP), whose statistically significant trend of 0.22 ± 0.08 Pg C yr−2 exceeds a significant trend in heterotrophic respiration of 0.16 ± 0.05 Pg C yr−2 – primarily as a consequence of widespread CO2 fertilisation of plant production. Most of the land-based trend in simulated net carbon uptake originates from natural ecosystems in the tropics (−0.04 ± 0.01 Pg C yr−2), with almost no trend over the northern land region, where recent warming and reduced rainfall offsets the positive impact of elevated atmospheric CO2 and changes in growing season length on carbon storage. The small uptake trend in the ocean models emerges because climate variability and change, and in particular increasing sea surface temperatures, tend to counter\\-act the trend in ocean uptake driven by the increase in atmospheric CO2. Large uncertainty remains in the magnitude and sign of modelled carbon trends in several regions, as well as regarding the influence of land use and land cover changes on regional trends.
Since the mid-20th century, nitrogen (N) deposition has shown an increasing trend in the Tibetan Plateau (TP), where alpine ecosystems are sensitive to elevated N deposition. However, the ...quantitative characterization of N deposition in the TP remains unclear, due in most part to the lack of in situ measurement. Using the Tibetan Observation and Research Platform network, we conducted short-term in situ measurements of major ions (NO3−, Cl−, SO42−, NH4+, Na+, K+, Ca2+, and Mg2+) wet deposition at five remote sites in the TP during 2011–2013. At Southeast Tibet Station, Nam Co Station, Qomolangma Station, Ngari Station, and Muztagh Ata Station, the NH4+–N wet deposition was 0.63, 0.68, 0.92, 0.36, and 1.25 kg N ha−1 yr−1, respectively; the NO3−–N wet deposition was 0.28, 0.24, 0.03, 0.08, and 0.30 kg N ha−1 yr−1, respectively; and the inorganic N wet deposition was 0.91, 0.92, 0.94, 0.44, and 1.55 kg N ha−1 yr−1, respectively. The inorganic N wet deposition mainly occurred in the form of NH4+–N during summer at all sites. Results of enrichment factor analysis and principal component analysis demonstrated that both NH4+–N and NO3−–N wet deposition in the TP were mainly influenced by anthropogenic activities. Backward trajectory analysis showed that the inorganic N deposition at Muztagh Ata Station was mainly transported from central Asia and the Middle East through westerlies. At Southeast Tibet Station, Nam Co Station, Qomolangma Station, and Ngari Station, the inorganic N deposition was mainly contributed by anthropogenic sources in south Asia, and was mainly transported by the Indian monsoon. Combining site-scale in situ measurements of inorganic N wet deposition in this and previous studies, the average wet deposition of atmospheric NH4+–N, NO3−–N, and inorganic N in the TP was estimated to be 1.06, 0.51, and 1.58 kg N ha−1 yr−1, respectively. The average NH4+–N : NO3−–N ratio in precipitation in the TP was approximately 2 : 1. Results from the present study suggest that earlier estimations based on chemical transport model simulations and/or limited field measurements likely overestimated substantially the regional inorganic N wet deposition in the TP. To clarify the total N deposition in the TP more clearly, it is essential to conduct long-term monitoring of both wet and dry deposition of atmospheric N in various climate zones in the TP in the future.
Understanding how flowering phenology responds to warming and cooling (i.e., symmetric or asymmetric response) is needed to predict the response of flowering phenology to future climate change that ...will happen with the occurrence of warm and cold years superimposed upon a long-term trend. A three-year reciprocal translocation experiment was performed along an elevation gradient from 3200 m to 3800 m in the Tibetan Plateau for six alpine plants. Transplanting to lower elevation (warming) advanced the first flowering date (FFD) and transplanting to higher elevation (cooling) had the opposite effect. The FFD of early spring flowering plants (ESF) was four times less sensitive to warming than to cooling (by −2.1 d/°C and 8.4 d/°C, respectively), while midsummer flowering plants (MSF) were about twice as sensitive to warming than to cooling (−8.0 d/°C and 4.9 d/°C, respectively). Compared with pooled warming and cooling data, warming alone significantly underpredicted 3.1 d/°C for ESF and overestimated 1.7 d/°C for MSF. These results suggest that future empirical and experimental studies should consider nonlinear temperature responses that can cause such warming-cooling asymmetries as well as differing life strategies (ESF vs. MSF) among plant species.
The global extent and distribution of forest trees is central to our understanding of the terrestrial biosphere. We provide the first spatially continuous map of forest tree density at a global ...scale. This map reveals that the global number of trees is approximately 3.04 trillion, an order of magnitude higher than the previous estimate. Of these trees, approximately 1.39 trillion exist in tropical and subtropical forests, with 0.74 trillion in boreal regions and 0.61 trillion in temperate regions. Biome-level trends in tree density demonstrate the importance of climate and topography in controlling local tree densities at finer scales, as well as the overwhelming effect of humans across most of the world. Based on our projected tree densities, we estimate that over 15 billion trees are cut down each year, and the global number of trees has fallen by approximately 46% since the start of human civilization.
PDF
