The ocean has absorbed 41 per cent of all anthropogenic carbon emitted as a result of fossil fuel burning and cement manufacture. The magnitude and the large-scale distribution of the ocean carbon ...sink is well quantified for recent decades. In contrast, temporal changes in the oceanic carbon sink remain poorly understood. It has proved difficult to distinguish between air-to-sea carbon flux trends that are due to anthropogenic climate change and those due to internal climate variability. Here we use a modelling approach that allows for this separation, revealing how the ocean carbon sink may be expected to change throughout this century in different oceanic regions. Our findings suggest that, owing to large internal climate variability, it is unlikely that changes in the rate of anthropogenic carbon uptake can be directly observed in most oceanic regions at present, but that this may become possible between 2020 and 2050 in some regions.
Since preindustrial times, the ocean has removed from the atmosphere 41% of the carbon emitted by human industrial activities. Despite significant uncertainties, the balance of evidence indicates ...that the globally integrated rate of ocean carbon uptake is increasing in response to increasing atmospheric CO
2
concentrations. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the equatorial Pacific dominates interannual variability of the globally integrated sink. Modes of climate variability in high latitudes are correlated with variability in regional carbon sinks, but mechanistic understanding is incomplete. Regional sink variability, combined with sparse sampling, means that the growing oceanic sink cannot yet be directly detected from available surface data. Accurate and precise shipboard observations need to be continued and increasingly complemented with autonomous observations. These data, together with a variety of mechanistic and diagnostic models, are needed for better understanding, long-term monitoring, and future projections of this critical climate regulation service.
The California Current Marine Ecosystem is a highly productive system that exhibits strong natural variability and vulnerability to anthropogenic climate trends. Relating projections of ocean change ...to biological sensitivities requires detailed synthesis of experimental results. Here, we combine measured biological sensitivities with high‐resolution climate projections of key variables (temperature, oxygen, and pCO2) to identify the direction, magnitude, and spatial distribution of organism‐scale vulnerabilities to multiple axes of projected ocean change. Among 12 selected species of cultural and economic importance, we find that all are sensitive to projected changes in ocean conditions through responses that affect individual performance or population processes. Response indices were largest in the northern region and inner shelf. While performance traits generally increased with projected changes, fitness traits generally decreased, indicating that concurrent stresses can lead to fitness loss. For two species, combining sensitivities to temperature and oxygen changes through the Metabolic Index shows how aerobic habitat availability could be compressed under future conditions. Our results suggest substantial and specific ecological susceptibility in the next 80 years, including potential regional loss of canopy‐forming kelp, changes in nearshore food webs caused by declining rates of survival among red urchins, Dungeness crab, and razor clams, and loss of aerobic habitat for anchovy and pink shrimp. We also highlight fillable gaps in knowledge, including specific physiological responses to stressors, variation in responses across life stages, and responses to multistressor combinations. These findings strengthen the case for filling information gaps with experiments focused on fitness‐related responses and those that can be used to parameterize integrative physiological models, and suggest that the CCME is susceptible to substantial changes to ecosystem structure and function within this century.
This work summarizes experimental results of biological responses to projected climate change in species of economic, cultural, and ecological importance along the US and Canadian west coast, and combines these with downscaled climate projections. While physiological rates generally increased with projected changes, fitness traits generally decreased, indicating that concurrent stresses can lead to fitness loss, and anticipated ecological change in the California Current Marine Ecosystem.
Ocean acidification will likely result in a drop of 0.3–0.4 pH units in the surface ocean by 2100, assuming anthropogenic CO₂ emissions continue at the current rate. Impacts of increasing ...atmosphericpCO₂ on pH in freshwater systems have scarcely been addressed. In this study, the Laurentian Great Lakes are used as a case study for the potential for CO₂-induced acidification in freshwater systems as well as for assessment of the ability of current water quality monitoring to detect pH trends. If increasing atmosphericpCO₂ is the only forcing, pH will decline in the Laurentian Great Lakes at the same rate and magnitude as the surface ocean through 2100. High-resolution numerical models and one high-resolution time series of data illustrate that the pH of the Great Lakes has significant spatio-temporal variability. Because of this variability, data from existing monitoring systems are insufficient to accurately resolve annual mean trends. Significant measurement uncertainty also impedes the ability to assess trends. To elucidate the effects of increasing atmospheric CO₂ in the Great Lakes requires pH monitoring by collecting more accurate measurements with greater spatial and temporal coverage.
The high-latitude Pacific is home to highly productive ecosystems, including vast populations of commercially and subsistence harvested fish. These regions can be challenging to sample directly. Over ...several decades at the NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, we have applied numerical models to infer past, present, and future states of these regional oceans and their biota. These estimates are provided to fisheries scientists to help identify the local biophysical dynamics that underlie marine resource fluctuations and to managers to help develop effective management strategies in the face of short– and long-term environmental changes.
Efficiency of the biological pump of carbon to the deep ocean depends largely on biologically mediated export of carbon from the surface ocean and its remineralization with depth. Global satellite ...studies have primarily focused on chlorophyll concentration and net primary production (NPP) to understand the role of phytoplankton in these processes. Recent satellite retrievals of phytoplankton composition now allow for the size of phytoplankton cells to be considered. Here we improve understanding of phytoplankton size structure impacts on particle export, remineralization, and transfer. A global compilation of particulate organic carbon (POC) flux estimated from sediment traps and 234Th are utilized. Annual climatologies of NPP, percent microplankton, and POC flux at four time series locations and within biogeochemical provinces are constructed. Parameters that characterize POC flux versus depth (export flux ratio, labile fraction, and remineralization length scale) are fit for time series locations, biogeochemical provinces, and times of the year dominated by small and large phytoplankton cells where phytoplankton cell size show enough dynamic range over the annual cycle. Considering all data together, our findings support the idea of high export flux but low transfer efficiency in productive regions and vice versa for oligotrophic regions. However, when parsing by dominant size class, we find periods dominated by small cells to have both greater export flux efficiency and lower transfer efficiency than periods when large cells comprise a greater proportion of the phytoplankton community.
Key Points
Phytoplankton cell size impacts discernable in POC flux data
Small cells had greater export flux efficiency but lower transfer efficiency
Large cells were more refractory and sank faster with greater transfer efficiency
Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) has the potential to mitigate ocean acidification (OA) and induce atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) removal (CDR). We evaluate the CDR and OA mitigation impacts of a ...sustained point‐source OAE of 1.67 × 1010 mol total alkalinity (TA) yr−1 (equivalent to 667,950 metric tons NaOH yr−1) in Unimak Pass, Alaska. We find the alkalinity elevation initially mitigates OA by decreasing pCO2 and increasing aragonite saturation state and pH. Then, enhanced air‐to‐sea CO2 exchange follows with an approximate e‐folding time scale of 5 weeks. Meaningful modeled OA mitigation with reductions of >10 μatm pCO2 (or just under 0.02 pH units) extends 100–100,000 km2 around the TA addition site. The CDR efficiency (i.e., the experimental seawater dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) increase divided by the maximum DIC increase expected from the added TA) after the first 3 years is 0.96 ± 0.01, reflecting essentially complete air‐sea CO2 adjustment to the additional TA. This high efficiency is potentially a unique feature of the Bering Sea related to the shallow depths and mixed layer depths. The ratio of DIC increase to the TA added is also high (≥0.85) due to the high dissolved carbon content of seawater in the Bering Sea. The air‐sea gas exchange adjustment requires 3.6 months to become (>95%) complete, so the signal in dissolved carbon concentrations will likely be undetectable amid natural variability after dilution by ocean mixing. We therefore argue that modeling, on a range of scales, will need to play a major role in assessing the impacts of OAE interventions.
Plain Language Summary
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that carbon dioxide (CO2) removal (CDR) approaches will be required to stabilize the global temperature increase at 1.5–2°C. In this study, we simulated the climate mitigation impacts of adding alkalinity (equivalent to 667,950 metric ton NaOH yr−1) in Unimak Pass on the southern boundary of the Bering Sea. We found that adding alkalinity can accelerate the ocean CO2 uptake and storage and mitigate ocean acidification near the alkalinity addition. It takes about 3.6 months for the Ocean alkalinity enhancement impacted area to take up the extra CO2. The naturally cold and carbon rich water in the Bering Sea and the tendency of Bering Sea surface waters to linger near the ocean surface without mixing into the subsurface ocean both lead to high CDR efficiencies (>96%) from alkalinity additions in the Bering Sea. However, even with high efficiency, it would take >8,000 alkalinity additions of the kind we simulated to be operating by the year 2100 to meet the target to stabilize global temperatures within the targeted range.
Key Points
We used regional ocean model to simulate single point‐source ocean alkalinity enhancement in the Bering Sea
The steady state carbon dioxide removal efficiency was near one in years 3+ of the simulation
The meaningful modeled ocean acidification mitigation is confined to the region near the alkalinity addition
The Gulf of Alaska (GOA) receives substantial summer freshwater runoff from glacial meltwater. The alkalinity of this runoff is highly dependent on the glacial source and can modify the coastal ...carbon cycle. We use a regional ocean biogeochemical model to simulate CO2 uptake in the GOA under different alkalinity‐loading scenarios. The GOA is identified as a current net sink of carbon, though low‐alkalinity tidewater glacial runoff suppresses summer coastal carbon uptake. Our model shows that increasing the alkalinity generates an increase in annual CO2 uptake of 1.9–2.7 TgC/yr. This transition is comparable to a projected change in glacial runoff composition (i.e., from tidewater to land‐terminating) due to continued climate warming. Our results demonstrate an important local carbon‐climate feedback that can significantly increase coastal carbon uptake via enhanced air‐sea exchange, with potential implications to the coastal ecosystems in glaciated areas around the world.
Key Points
The Gulf of Alaska was a net carbon sink for 2009
Low alkalinity tidewater glacial runoff diminishes coastal carbon uptake in summer and fall
A shift toward higher alkalinity due to increased land‐terminating glacial runoff increases carbon uptake by 1.9–2.7 TgC/yr
The Bering Sea is highly vulnerable to ocean acidification (OA) due to naturally cold, poorly buffered waters and ocean mixing processes. Harsh weather conditions within this rapidly changing, ...geographically remote environment have limited the quantity of carbon chemistry data, thereby hampering efforts to understand underlying spatial-temporal variability and detect long-term trends. We add carbonate chemistry to a regional biogeochemical model of the Bering Sea to explore the underlying mechanisms driving carbon dynamics over a decadal hindcast (2003-2012). The results illustrate that coastal processes generate considerable spatial variability in the biogeochemistry and vulnerability of Bering Sea shelf water to OA. Substantial seasonal biological productivity maintains high supersaturation of aragonite on the outer shelf, whereas riverine freshwater runoff loaded with allochthonous carbon decreases aragonite saturation states (ΩArag) to values below 1 on the inner shelf. Over the entire 2003-2012 model hindcast, annual surface ΩArag decreases by 0.025 – 0.04 units/year due to positive trends in the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) in surface waters and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). Variability in this trend is driven by an increase in fall phytoplankton productivity and shelf carbon uptake, occurring during a transition from a relatively warm (2003-2005) to cold (2010-2012) temperature regime. Our results illustrate how local biogeochemical processes and climate variability can modify projected rates of OA within a coastal shelf system.
Exposure to the impact of ocean acidification (OA) is increasing in high-latitudinal productive habitats. Pelagic calcifying snails (pteropods), a significant component of the diet of economically ...important fish, are found in high abundance in these regions. Pteropods have thin shells that readily dissolve at low aragonite saturation state (Ω
ar
), making them susceptible to OA. Here, we conducted a first integrated risk assessment for pteropods in the Eastern Pacific subpolar gyre, the Gulf of Alaska (GoA), Bering Sea, and Amundsen Gulf. We determined the risk for pteropod populations by integrating measures of OA exposure, biological sensitivity, and resilience. Exposure was based on physical-chemical hydrographic observations and regional biogeochemical model outputs, delineating seasonal and decadal changes in carbonate chemistry conditions. Biological sensitivity was based on pteropod morphometrics and shell-building processes, including shell dissolution, density and thickness. Resilience and adaptive capacity were based on species diversity and spatial connectivity, derived from the particle tracking modeling. Extensive shell dissolution was found in the central and western part of the subpolar gyre, parts of the Bering Sea, and Amundsen Gulf. We identified two distinct morphotypes:
L. helicina helicina
and
L. helicina pacifica
, with high-spired and flatter shells, respectively. Despite the presence of different morphotypes, genetic analyses based on mitochondrial haplotypes identified a single species, without differentiation between the morphological forms, coinciding with evidence of widespread spatial connectivity. We found that shell morphometric characteristics depends on omega saturation state (Ω
ar
); under Ω
ar
decline, pteropods build flatter and thicker shells, which is indicative of a certain level of phenotypic plasticity. An integrated risk evaluation based on multiple approaches assumes a high risk for pteropod population persistence with intensification of OA in the high latitude eastern North Pacific because of their known vulnerability, along with limited evidence of species diversity despite their connectivity and our current lack of sufficient knowledge of their adaptive capacity. Such a comprehensive understanding would permit improved prediction of ecosystem change relevant to effective fisheries resource management, as well as a more robust foundation for monitoring ecosystem health and investigating OA impacts in high-latitudinal habitats.
PDF
