Aims/hypothesis
Mortality has declined in people with type 1 diabetes in recent decades. We examined how the pattern of decline differs by country, age and sex, and how mortality trends in type 1 ...diabetes relate to trends in general population mortality.
Methods
We assembled aggregate data on all-cause mortality during the period 2000–2016 in people with type 1 diabetes aged 0–79 years from Australia, Denmark, Latvia, Scotland, Spain (Catalonia) and the USA (Kaiser Permanente Northwest). Data were obtained from administrative sources, health insurance records and registries. All-cause mortality rates in people with type 1 diabetes, and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) comparing type 1 diabetes with the non-diabetic population, were modelled using Poisson regression, with age and calendar time as quantitative variables, describing the effects using restricted cubic splines with six knots for age and calendar time. Mortality rates were standardised to the age distribution of the aggregate population with type 1 diabetes.
Results
All six data sources showed a decline in age- and sex-standardised all-cause mortality rates in people with type 1 diabetes from 2000 to 2016 (or a subset thereof), with annual changes in mortality rates ranging from −2.1% (95% CI −2.8%, −1.3%) to −5.8% (95% CI −6.5%, −5.1%). All-cause mortality was higher for male individuals and for older individuals, but the rate of decline in mortality was generally unaffected by sex or age. SMR was higher in female individuals than male individuals, and appeared to peak at ages 40–70 years. SMR declined over time in Denmark, Scotland and Spain, while remaining stable in the other three data sources.
Conclusions/interpretation
All-cause mortality in people with type 1 diabetes has declined in recent years in most included populations, but improvements in mortality relative to the non-diabetic population are less consistent.
Graphical abstract
Diabetes prevalence is increasing in most places in the world, but prevalence is affected by both risk of developing diabetes and survival of those with diabetes. Diabetes incidence is a better ...metric to understand the trends in population risk of diabetes. Using a multicountry analysis, we aimed to ascertain whether the incidence of clinically diagnosed diabetes has changed over time.
In this multicountry data analysis, we assembled aggregated data describing trends in diagnosed total or type 2 diabetes incidence from 24 population-based data sources in 21 countries or jurisdictions. Data were from administrative sources, health insurance records, registries, and a health survey. We modelled incidence rates with Poisson regression, using age and calendar time (1995-2018) as variables, describing the effects with restricted cubic splines with six knots for age and calendar time.
Our data included about 22 million diabetes diagnoses from 5 billion person-years of follow-up. Data were from 19 high-income and two middle-income countries or jurisdictions. 23 data sources had data from 2010 onwards, among which 19 had a downward or stable trend, with an annual estimated change in incidence ranging from -1·1% to -10·8%. Among the four data sources with an increasing trend from 2010 onwards, the annual estimated change ranged from 0·9% to 5·6%. The findings were robust to sensitivity analyses excluding data sources in which the data quality was lower and were consistent in analyses stratified by different diabetes definitions.
The incidence of diagnosed diabetes is stabilising or declining in many high-income countries. The reasons for the declines in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes warrant further investigation with appropriate data sources.
US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Diabetes Australia Research Program, and Victoria State Government Operational Infrastructure Support Program.
Age-standardised noncommunicable disease (NCD) mortality and the proportion of the elderly population in Latvia are high, while public health and health care systems are underresourced. The emerging ...COVID-19 pandemic raised concerns about its detrimental impact on all-cause and noncommunicable disease mortality in Latvia. We estimated the timing and number of excess all-cause and cause-specific deaths in 2020 in Latvia due to COVID-19 and selected noncommunicable diseases.
A time series analysis of all-cause and cause-specific weekly mortality from COVID-19, circulatory diseases, malignant neoplasms, diabetes mellitus, and chronic lower respiratory diseases from the National Causes of Death Database from 2015 to 2020 was used by applying generalised additive modelling (GAM) and joinpoint regression analysis.
Between weeks 14 and 52 (from 1 April to 29 December) of 2020, a total of 3111 excess deaths (95% PI 1339 - 4832) were estimated in Latvia, resulting in 163.77 excess deaths per 100 000. Since September 30, with the outbreak of the second COVID-19 wave, 55% of all excess deaths have occurred. Altogether, COVID-19-related deaths accounted for only 28% of the estimated all-cause excess deaths. A significant increase in excess mortality was estimated for circulatory diseases (68.91 excess deaths per 100 000). Ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease were listed as the underlying cause in almost 60% of COVID-19-contributing deaths.
All-cause mortality and mortality from circulatory diseases significantly increased in Latvia during the first pandemic year. All-cause excess mortality substantially exceeded reported COVID-19-related deaths, implying COVID-19-related mortality during was significantly underestimated. Increasing mortality from circulatory diseases suggests a negative cumulative effect of COVID-19 exposure and reduced access to healthcare services for NCD patients.
Diabetes is a major public health issue. Because lifetime risk, life expectancy, and years of life lost are meaningful metrics for clinical decision making, we aimed to estimate these measures for ...type 2 diabetes in the high-income setting.
For this multinational, population-based study, we sourced data from 24 databases for 23 jurisdictions (either whole countries or regions of a country): Australia; Austria; Canada; Denmark; Finland; France; Germany; Hong Kong; Hungary; Israel; Italy; Japan; Latvia; Lithuania; the Netherlands; Norway; Scotland; Singapore; South Korea; Spain; Taiwan; the UK; and the USA. Our main outcomes were lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes, life expectancy in people with and without type 2 diabetes, and years of life lost to type 2 diabetes. We modelled the incidence and mortality of type 2 diabetes in people with and without type 2 diabetes in sex-stratified, age-adjusted, and calendar year-adjusted Poisson models for each jurisdiction. Using incidence and mortality, we constructed life tables for people of both sexes aged 20-100 years for each jurisdiction and at two timepoints 5 years apart in the period 2005-19 where possible. Life expectancy from a given age was computed as the area under the survival curves and lifetime lost was calculated as the difference between the expected lifetime of people with versus without type 2 diabetes at a given age. Lifetime risk was calculated as the proportion of each cohort who developed type 2 diabetes between the ages of 20 years and 100 years. We estimated 95% CIs using parametric bootstrapping.
Across all study cohorts from the 23 jurisdictions (total person-years 1 577 234 194), there were 5 119 585 incident cases of type 2 diabetes, 4 007 064 deaths in those with type 2 diabetes, and 11 854 043 deaths in those without type 2 diabetes. The lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes ranged from 16·3% (95% CI 15·6-17·0) for Scottish women to 59·6% (58·5-60·8) for Singaporean men. Lifetime risk declined with time in 11 of the 15 jurisdictions for which two timepoints were studied. Among people with type 2 diabetes, the highest life expectancies were found for both sexes in Japan in 2017-18, where life expectancy at age 20 years was 59·2 years (95% CI 59·2-59·3) for men and 64·1 years (64·0-64·2) for women. The lowest life expectancy at age 20 years with type 2 diabetes was observed in 2013-14 in Lithuania (43·7 years 42·7-44·6) for men and in 2010-11 in Latvia (54·2 years 53·4-54·9) for women. Life expectancy in people with type 2 diabetes increased with time for both sexes in all jurisdictions, except for Spain and Scotland. The life expectancy gap between those with and without type 2 diabetes declined substantially in Latvia from 2010-11 to 2015-16 and in the USA from 2009-10 to 2014-15. Years of life lost to type 2 diabetes ranged from 2·5 years (Latvia; 2015-16) to 12·9 years (Israel Clalit Health Services; 2015-16) for 20-year-old men and from 3·1 years (Finland; 2011-12) to 11·2 years (Israel Clalit Health Services; 2010-11 and 2015-16) for 20-year-old women. With time, the expected number of years of life lost to type 2 diabetes decreased in some jurisdictions and increased in others. The greatest decrease in years of life lost to type 2 diabetes occurred in the USA between 2009-10 and 2014-15 for 20-year-old men (a decrease of 2·7 years).
Despite declining lifetime risk and improvements in life expectancy for those with type 2 diabetes in many high-income jurisdictions, the burden of type 2 diabetes remains substantial. Public health strategies might benefit from tailored approaches to continue to improve health outcomes for people with diabetes.
US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Diabetes Australia.
A major challenge of outcomes research is measuring hospital performance using readily available administrative data. When the outcome measure is mortality or morbidity, rates are adjusted to account ...for preexisting conditions that may confound their assessment. However, the concept of “risk-adjusted” outcomes is frequently misunderstood. In this article, we try to clarify things, and we describe Stata tools for appropriately calculating and displaying risk-standardized outcome measures. We offer practical guidance and illustrate the application of these tools to an example based on real data (30-day mortality following acute myocardial infarction in Latvia).
Schools and municipalities play an important role in local health promotion. The Institute of Public Health at Rıga Stradiņš University in collaboration with the National Centre of Disease Prevention ...and Control carried out an online survey for studying the experiences and needs of health-promoting schools and municipalities in Latvia in implementing health promotion interventions. The aim of this study was to explore the context for developing new intervention model for a health behaviour change model within the Interreg BaltCityPrevention project “Innovative Lifestyle-Related Disease Prevention Model in the Baltic Sea Region.” Totally 112 municipalities and 100 schools within the National Health Promoting Networks were targeted. Only schools and municipalities that had previous experiences in health promotion intervention development were included in the analysis. This study showed that school-aged children were the most prevalent target group for the both schools and municipality interventions. The interventions in physical activity and nutrition used to be the most common areas for health behaviour changes. Health promotion schools and municipalities reported several significant differences in experienced difficulties and expected future needs in implementing health promotion interventions, which should be considered for increasing the capacity for better health promotion for both schools and municipalities in Latvia.
In Latvia, like in other European countries, the incidence of diabetes mellitus is increasing and so it is important to find out what the trends in the mortality of diabetes mellitus in Latvia are. ...The aim of this study was to calculate the mortality indicators of diabetes patients in Latvia from 2000 to 2012 and compare mortality among diabetes mellitus patients with mortality among the population of Latvia.
The study was carried out with a quantitative statistical analysis approach. In the study, all the registered patients with diabetes mellitus from 2000 to 2012 were included.
Mortality in a population with diabetes decreased statistically significantly from 57.76 per 1000py in 2000 to 45.33 per 1000py in 2012. In the general population of Latvia, there were no statistically significant changes; the mortality in 2000 was 13.56 per 1000py, in 2012 – 14.24 per 1000py. The age-standardised mortality ratio of the population with diabetes and the population of Latvia decreased from 1.71 (95% CI=1.62–1.81) in 2000 to 1.23 (95% CI=1.19–1.27) in 2012.
In Latvia the mortality of patients with diabetes exceeds mortality in the general population. Mortality rates are higher for men and older patients, however, compared to mortality in the general population, diabetes increases the risk of death; especially for women and for younger patients. There is a tendency that the mortality indicators of patients with diabetes and mortality indicators in the general population are becoming closer.
Rare cancers pose challenges for diagnosis, treatments, and clinical decision making. Information about rare cancers is scant. The RARECARE project defined rare cancers as those with an annual ...incidence of less than six per 100 000 people in European Union (EU). We updated the estimates of the burden of rare cancers in Europe, their time trends in incidence and survival, and provide information about centralisation of treatments in seven European countries.
We analysed data from 94 cancer registries for more than 2 million rare cancer diagnoses, to estimate European incidence and survival in 2000–07 and the corresponding time trends during 1995–2007. Incidence was calculated as the number of new cases divided by the corresponding total person-years in the population. 5-year relative survival was calculated by the Ederer-2 method. Seven registries (Belgium, Bulgaria, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, Slovenia, and the Navarra region in Spain) provided additional data for hospitals treating about 220 000 cases diagnosed in 2000–07. We also calculated hospital volume admission as the number of treatments provided by each hospital rare cancer group sharing the same referral pattern.
Rare cancers accounted for 24% of all cancers diagnosed in the EU during 2000–07. The overall incidence rose annually by 0.5% (99·8% CI 0·3–0·8). 5-year relative survival for all rare cancers was 48·5% (95% CI 48·4 to 48·6), compared with 63·4% (95% CI 63·3 to 63·4) for all common cancers. 5-year relative survival increased (overall 2·9%, 95% CI 2·7 to 3·2), from 1999–2001 to 2007–09, and for most rare cancers, with the largest increases for haematological tumours and sarcomas. The amount of centralisation of rare cancer treatment varied widely between cancers and between countries. The Netherlands and Slovenia had the highest treatment volumes.
Our study benefits from the largest pool of population-based registries to estimate incidence and survival of about 200 rare cancers. Incidence trends can be explained by changes in known risk factors, improved diagnosis, and registration problems. Survival could be improved by early diagnosis, new treatments, and improved case management. The centralisation of treatment could be improved in the seven European countries we studied.
The European Commission (Chafea).
Abstract
Aims
To develop and validate a recalibrated prediction model (SCORE2-Diabetes) to estimate the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals with type 2 diabetes in Europe.
...Methods and results
SCORE2-Diabetes was developed by extending SCORE2 algorithms using individual-participant data from four large-scale datasets comprising 229 460 participants (43 706 CVD events) with type 2 diabetes and without previous CVD. Sex-specific competing risk-adjusted models were used including conventional risk factors (i.e. age, smoking, systolic blood pressure, total, and HDL-cholesterol), as well as diabetes-related variables (i.e. age at diabetes diagnosis, glycated haemoglobin HbA1c and creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate eGFR). Models were recalibrated to CVD incidence in four European risk regions. External validation included 217 036 further individuals (38 602 CVD events), and showed good discrimination, and improvement over SCORE2 (C-index change from 0.009 to 0.031). Regional calibration was satisfactory. SCORE2-Diabetes risk predictions varied several-fold, depending on individuals’ levels of diabetes-related factors. For example, in the moderate-risk region, the estimated 10-year CVD risk was 11% for a 60-year-old man, non-smoker, with type 2 diabetes, average conventional risk factors, HbA1c of 50 mmol/mol, eGFR of 90 mL/min/1.73 m2, and age at diabetes diagnosis of 60 years. By contrast, the estimated risk was 17% in a similar man, with HbA1c of 70 mmol/mol, eGFR of 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, and age at diabetes diagnosis of 50 years. For a woman with the same characteristics, the risk was 8% and 13%, respectively.
Conclusion
SCORE2-Diabetes, a new algorithm developed, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of CVD in individuals with type 2 diabetes, enhances identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.
Structured Graphical Abstract
Structured Graphical Abstract
SCORE2-Diabetes 10-year CVD risk models: development process, key features and illustrative example. CVD: cardiovascular disease; SBP: systolic blood pressure; HDL-C: high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; HbA1c (mmol/mol): glycated haemoglobin, in International Federation of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine (IFCC) units; eGFR: estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (mL/min/1.73m2).
The EUROCARE-5 study revealed disparities in childhood cancer survival among European countries, giving rise to important initiatives across Europe to reduce the gap. Extending its representativeness ...through increased coverage of eastern European countries, the EUROCARE-6 study aimed to update survival progress across countries and years of diagnosis and provide new analytical perspectives on estimates of long-term survival and the cured fraction of patients with childhood cancer.
In this population-based study, we analysed 135 847 children (aged 0–14 years) diagnosed during 2000–13 and followed up to the end of 2014, recruited from 80 population-based cancer registries in 31 European countries. We calculated age-adjusted 5-year survival differences by country and over time using period analysis, for all cancers combined and for major cancer types. We applied a variant of standard mixture cure models for survival data to estimate the cure fraction of patients by childhood cancer and to estimate projected 15-year survival.
5-year survival for all childhood cancer combined in Europe in 2010–14 was 81% (95% CI 81–82), showing an increase of three percentage points compared with 2004–06. Significant progress over time was observed for almost all cancers. Survival remained stable for osteosarcomas, Ewing sarcoma, Burkitt lymphoma, non-Hodgkin lymphomas, and rhabdomyoscarcomas. For all cancers combined, inequalities still persisted among European countries (with age-adjusted 5-year survival ranging from 71% 95% CI 60–79 to 87% 77–93). The 15-year survival projection for all patients with childhood cancer diagnosed in 2010–13 was 78%. We estimated the yearly long-term mortality rate due to causes other than the diagnosed cancer to be around 2 per 1000 patients for all childhood cancer combined, but to approach zero for retinoblastoma. The cure fraction for patients with childhood cancer increased over time from 74% (95% CI 73–75) in 1998–2001 to 80% (79–81) in 2010–13. In the latter cohort, the cure fraction rate ranged from 99% (95% CI 74–100) for retinoblastoma to 60% (58–63) for CNS tumours and reached 90% (95% CI 87–93) for lymphoid leukaemia and 70% (67–73) for acute myeloid leukaemia.
Childhood cancer survival is increasing over time in Europe but there are still some differences among countries. Regular monitoring of childhood cancer survival and estimation of the cure fraction through population-based registry data are crucial for evaluating advances in paediatric cancer care.
European Commission.
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