Dryness stress can limit vegetation growth and is often characterized by low soil moisture (SM) and high atmospheric water demand (vapor pressure deficit, VPD). However, the relative role of SM and ...VPD in limiting ecosystem production remains debated and is difficult to disentangle, as SM and VPD are coupled through land-atmosphere interactions, hindering the ability to predict ecosystem responses to dryness. Here, we combine satellite observations of solar-induced fluorescence with estimates of SM and VPD and show that SM is the dominant driver of dryness stress on ecosystem production across more than 70% of vegetated land areas with valid data. Moreover, after accounting for SM-VPD coupling, VPD effects on ecosystem production are much smaller across large areas. We also find that SM stress is strongest in semi-arid ecosystems. Our results clarify a longstanding question and open new avenues for improving models to allow a better management of drought risk.
This paper reports a comprehensive study on the observed and projected spatiotemporal changes in mean and extreme climate over the arid region of northwestern China, based on gridded observation data ...and CMIP5 simulations under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The observational results reveal an increase in annual mean temperature since 1961, largely attributable to the increase in minimum temperature. The annual mean precipitation also exhibits a significant increasing tendency. The precipitation amount in the most recent decade was greater than in any preceding decade since 1961. Seasonally, the greatest increase in temperature and precipitation appears in winter and in summer, respectively. Widespread significant changes in temperature-related extremes are consistent with warming, with decreases in cold extremes and increases in warm extremes. The warming of the coldest night is greater than that of the warmest day, and changes in cold and warm nights are more evident than for cold and warm days. Extreme precipitation and wet days exhibit an increasing trend, and the maximum number of consecutive dry days shows a tendency toward shorter duration. Multi-model ensemble mean projections indicate an overall continual increase in temperature and precipitation during the 21 st century. Decreases in cold extremes, increases in warm extremes, intensification of extreme precipitation, increases in wet days, and decreases in consecutive dry days, are expected under both emissions scenarios, with larger changes corresponding to stronger radiative forcing.
Combustion-derived black carbon (BC) aerosols accelerate glacier melting in the Himalayas and in Tibet (the Third Pole (TP)), thereby limiting the sustainable freshwater supplies for billions of ...people. However, the sources of BC reaching the TP remain uncertain, hindering both process understanding and efficient mitigation. Here we present the source-diagnostic Δ(14)C/δ(13)C compositions of BC isolated from aerosol and snowpit samples in the TP. For the Himalayas, we found equal contributions from fossil fuel (46±11%) and biomass (54±11%) combustion, consistent with BC source fingerprints from the Indo-Gangetic Plain, whereas BC in the remote northern TP predominantly derives from fossil fuel combustion (66±16%), consistent with Chinese sources. The fossil fuel contributions to BC in the snowpits of the inner TP are lower (30±10%), implying contributions from internal Tibetan sources (for example, yak dung combustion). Constraints on BC sources facilitate improved modelling of climatic patterns, hydrological effects and provide guidance for effective mitigation actions.
A study is presented of the geographical distribution and spatial and temporal variabilities of the western China snow cover in the past 47 yr between 1951 and 1997. The data used consist of Scanning ...Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) 6-day snow-depth charts, NOAA weekly snow extent charts, and the daily snow depth and number of snow cover days from 106 selected meteorological stations across western China. Empirical orthogonal function was performed on the SMMR dataset to better understand the spatial pattern and variability of the Qinghai–Xizang (Tibet) snow cover. A multiple linear regression analysis was conducted to show the association of interannual variations between snow cover and snow season temperature as well as precipitation. Further, the autoregressive moving average model was fitted to the snow and climate time series to test for their long-term trends. Results show that western China did not experience a continual decrease in snow cover during the great warming period of the 1980s and 1990s. It is of interest to note that no correlation was identified between temperature and precipitation in the snow cover season. However, year-to-year fluctuation of snow cover responds to both snowfall and snow season temperature. About one-half to two-thirds of the total variance in snow cover is explained by the linear variations of snowfall and snow season temperature. The long-term variability of western China snow cover is characterized by a large interannual variation superimposed on a small increase trend. The positive trend of the western China snow cover is consistent with increasing snowfall, but is in contradiction to regional warming. In addition, many constraints of the Qinghai–Xizang (Tibet) snow cover force the author’s challenge of Blanford’s hypothesis.
Abstract
China's climate has been warming since the 1950s, with surface air temperature increasing at a rate higher than the global average. Changes in climate have exerted substantial impacts on ...water resources, agriculture, ecosystems and human health. Attributing past changes to causes provides a scientific foundation for national and international climate policies. Here, we review recent progress in attributing the observed climate changes over past decades in China. Anthropogenic forcings, dominated by greenhouse gas emissions, are the main drivers for observed increases in mean and extreme temperatures. Evidence of the effect of anthropogenic forcings on precipitation is emerging. Human influence has increased the probability of extreme heat events, and has likely changed the occurrence probabilities for some heavy precipitation events. The way a specific attribution question is posed and the conditions under which the question is addressed present persistent challenges for appropriately communicating attribution results to non-specialists.
Human influence on China's climate is clear. Anthropogenic forcing is the main driver of the observed warming in mean and extreme temperatures, and its effect on heavy precipitation is emerging.
•Five precious representative alpine meadow sites on the Tibetan Plateau were used to evaluate and modified MOD16 algorithm.•A modified MOD16 algorithm was proposed to improve the accuracy of ET ...estimation.•A modular analysis was performed for understanding the relative importance of each part of the modified MOD16 algorithm.
The long-term change of evapotranspiration (ET) is crucial for managing water resources in areas with extreme climates, such as the Tibetan Plateau (TP). This study proposed a modified algorithm for estimating ET based on the MOD16 algorithm on a global scale over alpine meadow on the TP in China. Wind speed and vegetation height were integrated to estimate aerodynamic resistance, while the temperature and moisture constraints for stomatal conductance were revised based on the technique proposed by Fisher et al. (2008). Moreover, Fisher’s method for soil evaporation was adopted to reduce the uncertainty in soil evaporation estimation. Five representative alpine meadow sites on the TP were selected to investigate the performance of the modified algorithm. Comparisons were made between the ET observed using the Eddy Covariance (EC) and estimated using both the original and modified algorithms. The results revealed that the modified algorithm performed better than the original MOD16 algorithm with the coefficient of determination (R2) increasing from 0.26 to 0.68, and root mean square error (RMSE) decreasing from 1.56 to 0.78 mm d−1. The modified algorithm performed slightly better with a higher R2 (0.70) and lower RMSE (0.61 mm d−1) for after-precipitation days than for non-precipitation days at Suli site. Contrarily, better results were obtained for non-precipitation days than for after-precipitation days at Arou, Tanggula, and Hulugou sites, indicating that the modified algorithm may be more suitable for estimating ET for non-precipitation days with higher accuracy than for after-precipitation days, which had large observation errors. The comparisons between the modified algorithm and two mainstream methods suggested that the modified algorithm could produce high accuracy ET over the alpine meadow sites on the TP.
This study presents the Nd‐Sr isotopic compositions and size distributions of cryoconite deposited on the glaciers at different locations on the Tibetan Plateau, in order to trace its source areas ...and the provenance of long‐range transported (LRT) Asian dust on the Tibetan Plateau. The result of scanning electron microscope‐energy dispersive X‐ray spectrometer analysis indicated that mineral dust particles were dominant in the cryoconite. Most of the cryoconite samples from the Tibetan Plateau indicated different Sr and Nd isotopic composition compared with sand from large deserts (e.g., the Taklimakan and Qaidam deserts). Some cryoconite samples showed very similar Nd‐Sr isotopic ratios compared with those of nearby glacier basins (e.g., at Laohugou Glacier No.12, Dongkemadi Glacier, and Shiyi Glacier), indicating the potential input of local crustal dust to cryoconite. The volume‐size distribution for the cryoconite particles also indicated bimodal distribution graphs with volume median diameters ranging from 0.57 to 20 µm and from 20 to 100 µm, demonstrating the contribution of both LRT Asian dust and local dust inputs to cryoconite. Based on the particle size distribution, we calculated a mean number ratio of local dust contribution to cryoconite ranging from 0.7% (Baishui Glacier No.1) to 17.6% (Shiyi Glacier) on the Tibetan Plateau. In general, the marked difference in the Nd‐Sr isotopic ratios of cryoconite compared with those of large deserts probably indicates that materials from the western deserts have not been easily transported to the hinterland of Tibetan Plateau by the Westerlies under the current climatic conditions, and the arid deserts on the Tibetan Plateau are the most likely sources for cryoconite deposition. The resistance of the Tibetan Plateau to the Westerlies may have caused such phenomena, especially for LRT eolian dust transported over the Tibetan Plateau. Thus, this work is of great importance in understanding the large‐scale eolian dust transport and climate over the Tibetan Plateau.
Key Points
Cryoconite samples showed different Sr and Nd isotopic composition compared with sand from large deserts
Size distribution of cryoconite particles showed bimodal distribution graphs
Local dust contribution to cryoconite ranging from 0.7% to 17.6% on the Tibetan Plateau
To better understand the risk of disasters due to glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), we synthetically analyze the spatial distribution and evolution of moraine-dammed lakes and potentially ...dangerous glacial lakes (PDGLs) in the Chinese Himalaya. Our county-based assessment of GLOF disaster risk combines PDGL outburst hazard, regional exposure, vulnerability of exposed elements and adaptation capability (risk management) using the analytic hierarchy process. We synthetically analyze the disaster risk using the weighted comprehensive method. Remote-sensing data show there are 329 moraine-dammed lakes (>0.02 km2; total area 125.43 km2) in the Chinese Himalaya, of which 116 (total area 49.49 km2) are identified as PDGLs. The zones at highest risk of GLOF disaster are mainly located in Nyalam, Tingri, Dinggyê, Lhozhag, Kangmar and Zhongba, in the mid-eastern Himalaya. Lowest-risk zones are located in the eastern Himalaya. On the county scale, Lhozhag and Lhunze have the highest hazard degrees and exposure, while Zhongba and Zando have the highest degree of vulnerability and lowest adaptation capacity. Our regionalization results for GLOF disaster risk are consistent with the distribution of historical disaster sites across the Chinese Himalaya.
The Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings are known as the Third Pole (TP). This region is noted for its high rates of glacier melt and the associated hydrological shifts that affect water supplies in ...Asia. Atmospheric pollutants contribute to climatic and cryospheric changes through their effects on solar radiation and the albedos of snow and ice surfaces; moreover, the behavior and fates within the cryosphere and environmental impacts of environmental pollutants are topics of increasing concern. In this review, we introduce a coordinated monitoring and research framework and network to link atmospheric pollution and cryospheric changes (APCC) within the TP region. We then provide an up-to-date summary of progress and achievements related to the APCC research framework, including aspects of atmospheric pollution's composition and concentration, spatial and temporal variations, trans-boundary transport pathways and mechanisms, and effects on the warming of atmosphere and changing in Indian monsoon, as well as melting of glacier and snow cover. We highlight that exogenous air pollutants can enter into the TP's environments and cause great impacts on regional climatic and environmental changes. At last, we propose future research priorities and map out an extended program at the global scale. The ongoing monitoring activities and research facilitate comprehensive studies of atmosphere-cryosphere interactions, represent one of China's key research expeditions to the TP and the polar regions and contribute to the global perspective of earth system science.
The Tibetan grassland social-ecological systems are widely held to be highly vulnerable to climate change. We aim to investigate livelihood adaptation strategies of herder households and the types of ...local institutions that shaped those adaptation strategies. We examined the barriers and opportunities for strengthening adaptive capacity of local herder communities. We designed and implemented a household survey in the herder communities of northern Tibet. The survey results showed that migratory grazing has become less feasible. Storage, diversification, and market exchange have become the dominant adaptation strategies. The adaptation strategies of local herders have been reshaped by local institutional change. Local governmental and market institutions played the dominant roles in reshaping climate adaptation strategies. Although the present livelihood adaption strategies related to sedentary grazing have improved productivity and profitability of the herding livelihood, they have led to continuous deterioration of pastures. The local grazing system has become more and more dependent on artificial feeding and inputs from outside the grazing system. Purchasing forage has become one of the dominant adaptation strategies of local herder households. Multilevel regression modeling of this adaptation behavior showed that explanatory variables related to climate variability, household capital, and local institutional arrangements had statistically significant relationships with the adoption of this adaptation strategy. The results implies that building household capital and promoting the coordination among local governmental, market, and communal institutions are critical for strengthening adaptive capacity of the Tibetan herder communities.
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