The electrocardiogram (ECG) is a widely used medical test, consisting of voltage versus time traces collected from surface recordings over the heart
. Here we hypothesized that a deep neural network ...(DNN) can predict an important future clinical event, 1-year all-cause mortality, from ECG voltage-time traces. By using ECGs collected over a 34-year period in a large regional health system, we trained a DNN with 1,169,662 12-lead resting ECGs obtained from 253,397 patients, in which 99,371 events occurred. The model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.88 on a held-out test set of 168,914 patients, in which 14,207 events occurred. Even within the large subset of patients (n = 45,285) with ECGs interpreted as 'normal' by a physician, the performance of the model in predicting 1-year mortality remained high (AUC = 0.85). A blinded survey of cardiologists demonstrated that many of the discriminating features of these normal ECGs were not apparent to expert reviewers. Finally, a Cox proportional-hazard model revealed a hazard ratio of 9.5 (P < 0.005) for the two predicted groups (dead versus alive 1 year after ECG) over a 25-year follow-up period. These results show that deep learning can add substantial prognostic information to the interpretation of 12-lead resting ECGs, even in cases that are interpreted as normal by physicians.
Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with substantial morbidity, especially when it goes undetected. If new-onset AF could be predicted, targeted screening could be used to find it early. We ...hypothesized that a deep neural network could predict new-onset AF from the resting 12-lead ECG and that this prediction may help identify those at risk of AF-related stroke.
We used 1.6 M resting 12-lead digital ECG traces from 430 000 patients collected from 1984 to 2019. Deep neural networks were trained to predict new-onset AF (within 1 year) in patients without a history of AF. Performance was evaluated using areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve and precision-recall curve. We performed an incidence-free survival analysis for a period of 30 years following the ECG stratified by model predictions. To simulate real-world deployment, we trained a separate model using all ECGs before 2010 and evaluated model performance on a test set of ECGs from 2010 through 2014 that were linked to our stroke registry. We identified the patients at risk for AF-related stroke among those predicted to be high risk for AF by the model at different prediction thresholds.
The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and area under the precision-recall curve were 0.85 and 0.22, respectively, for predicting new-onset AF within 1 year of an ECG. The hazard ratio for the predicted high- versus low-risk groups over a 30-year span was 7.2 (95% CI, 6.9-7.6). In a simulated deployment scenario, the model predicted new-onset AF at 1 year with a sensitivity of 69% and specificity of 81%. The number needed to screen to find 1 new case of AF was 9. This model predicted patients at high risk for new-onset AF in 62% of all patients who experienced an AF-related stroke within 3 years of the index ECG.
Deep learning can predict new-onset AF from the 12-lead ECG in patients with no previous history of AF. This prediction may help identify patients at risk for AF-related strokes.
The aim of the study was to determine whether a novel computed tomography (CT) postprocessing software technique (CALIPER) is superior to visual CT scoring as judged by functional correlations in ...idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF).
A total of 283 consecutive patients with IPF had CT parenchymal patterns evaluated quantitatively with CALIPER and by visual scoring. These 2 techniques were evaluated against: forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLco), carbon monoxide transfer coefficient (Kco), and a composite physiological index (CPI), with regard to extent of interstitial lung disease (ILD), extent of emphysema, and pulmonary vascular abnormalities.
CALIPER-derived estimates of ILD extent demonstrated stronger univariate correlations than visual scores for most pulmonary function tests (PFTs): (FEV1: CALIPER R=0.29, visual R=0.18; FVC: CALIPER R=0.41, visual R=0.27; DLco: CALIPER R=0.31, visual R=0.35; CPI: CALIPER R=0.48, visual R=0.44). Correlations between CT measures of emphysema extent and PFTs were weak and did not differ significantly between CALIPER and visual scoring. Intriguingly, the pulmonary vessel volume provided similar correlations to total ILD extent scored by CALIPER for FVC, DLco, and CPI (FVC: R=0.45; DLco: R=0.34; CPI: R=0.53).
CALIPER was superior to visual scoring as validated by functional correlations with PFTs. The pulmonary vessel volume, a novel CALIPER CT parameter with no visual scoring equivalent, has the potential to be a CT feature in the assessment of patients with IPF and requires further exploration.
Screening for lung cancer using low-dose computed tomography (CT) reduces lung cancer mortality. However, in addition to a high rate of benign nodules, lung cancer screening detects a large number of ...indolent cancers that generally belong to the adenocarcinoma spectrum. Individualized management of screen-detected adenocarcinomas would be facilitated by noninvasive risk stratification.
To validate that Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield (CANARY), a novel image analysis software, successfully risk stratifies screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas based on clinical disease outcomes.
We identified retrospective 294 eligible patients diagnosed with lung adenocarcinoma spectrum lesions in the low-dose CT arm of the National Lung Screening Trial. The last low-dose CT scan before the diagnosis of lung adenocarcinoma was analyzed using CANARY blinded to clinical data. Based on their parametric CANARY signatures, all the lung adenocarcinoma nodules were risk stratified into three groups. CANARY risk groups were compared using survival analysis for progression-free survival.
A total of 294 patients were included in the analysis. Kaplan-Meier analysis of all the 294 adenocarcinoma nodules stratified into the Good, Intermediate, and Poor CANARY risk groups yielded distinct progression-free survival curves (P < 0.0001). This observation was confirmed in the unadjusted and adjusted (age, sex, race, and smoking status) progression-free survival analysis of all stage I cases.
CANARY allows the noninvasive risk stratification of lung adenocarcinomas into three groups with distinct post-treatment progression-free survival. Our results suggest that CANARY could ultimately facilitate individualized management of incidentally or screen-detected lung adenocarcinomas.
High-resolution chest computed tomography (HRCT) is essential in the characterization of interstitial lung disease. The HRCT features of some diseases can be diagnostic. Longitudinal monitoring with ...HRCT can assess progression of interstitial lung disease; however, subtle changes in the volume and character of abnormalities can be difficult to assess. Accuracy of diagnosis can be dependent on expertise and experience of the radiologist, pathologist, or clinician. Quantitative analysis of thoracic HRCT has the potential to determine the extent of disease reproducibly, classify the types of abnormalities, and automate the diagnostic process.
Novel software that utilizes histogram signatures to characterize pulmonary parenchyma was used to analyze chest HRCT data, including retrospective processing of clinical CT scans and research data from the Lung Tissue Research Consortium. Additional information including physiological, pathologic, and semiquantitative radiologist assessment was available to allow comparison of quantitative results, with visual estimates of the disease, physiological parameters, and measures of disease outcome.
Quantitative analysis results were provided in regional volumetric quantities for statistical analysis and a graphical representation. These results suggest that quantitative HRCT analysis can serve as a biomarker with physiological, pathologic, and prognostic significance.
It is likely that quantitative analysis of HRCT can be used in clinical practice as a means to aid in identifying a probable diagnosis, stratifying prognosis in early disease, and consistently determining progression of the disease or response to therapy. Further optimization of quantitative techniques and longitudinal analysis of well-characterized subjects would be helpful in validating these methods.
Heart failure is a prevalent, costly disease for which new value-based payment models demand optimized population management strategies.
This study sought to generate a strategy for managing ...populations of patients with heart failure by leveraging large clinical datasets and machine learning.
Geisinger electronic health record data were used to train machine learning models to predict 1-year all-cause mortality in 26,971 patients with heart failure who underwent 276,819 clinical episodes. There were 26 clinical variables (demographics, laboratory test results, medications), 90 diagnostic codes, 41 electrocardiogram measurements and patterns, 44 echocardiographic measurements, and 8 evidence-based “care gaps”: flu vaccine, blood pressure of <130/80 mm Hg, A1c of <8%, cardiac resynchronization therapy, and active medications (active angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin II receptor blocker/angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitor, aldosterone receptor antagonist, hydralazine, and evidence-based beta-blocker) were collected. Care gaps represented actionable variables for which associations with all-cause mortality were modeled from retrospective data and then used to predict the benefit of prospective interventions in 13,238 currently living patients.
Machine learning models achieved areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUCs) of 0.74 to 0.77 in a split-by-year training/test scheme, with the nonlinear XGBoost model (AUC: 0.77) outperforming linear logistic regression (AUC: 0.74). Out of 13,238 currently living patients, 2,844 were predicted to die within a year, and closing all care gaps was predicted to save 231 of these lives. Prioritizing patients for intervention by using the predicted reduction in 1-year mortality risk outperformed all other priority rankings (e.g., random selection or Seattle Heart Failure risk score).
Machine learning can be used to priority-rank patients most likely to benefit from interventions to optimize evidence-based therapies. This approach may prove useful for optimizing heart failure population health management teams within value-based payment models.
Display omitted
Machine learning promises to assist physicians with predictions of mortality and of other future clinical events by learning complex patterns from historical data, such as longitudinal electronic ...health records. Here we show that a convolutional neural network trained on raw pixel data in 812,278 echocardiographic videos from 34,362 individuals provides superior predictions of one-year all-cause mortality. The model's predictions outperformed the widely used pooled cohort equations, the Seattle Heart Failure score (measured in an independent dataset of 2,404 patients with heart failure who underwent 3,384 echocardiograms), and a machine learning model involving 58 human-derived variables from echocardiograms and 100 clinical variables derived from electronic health records. We also show that cardiologists assisted by the model substantially improved the sensitivity of their predictions of one-year all-cause mortality by 13% while maintaining prediction specificity. Large unstructured datasets may enable deep learning to improve a wide range of clinical prediction models.
Pulmonary nodules are commonly detected in computed tomography (CT) chest screening of a high-risk population. The specific visual or quantitative features on CT or other modalities can be used to ...characterize the likelihood that a nodule is benign or malignant. Visual features on CT such as size, attenuation, location, morphology, edge characteristics, and other distinctive "signs" can be highly suggestive of a specific diagnosis and, in general, be used to determine the probability that a specific nodule is benign or malignant. Change in size, attenuation, and morphology on serial follow-up CT, or features on other modalities such as nuclear medicine studies or MRI, can also contribute to the characterization of lung nodules. Imaging analytics can objectively and reproducibly quantify nodule features on CT, nuclear medicine, and magnetic resonance imaging. Some quantitative techniques show great promise in helping to differentiate benign from malignant lesions or to stratify the risk of aggressive versus indolent neoplasm. In this article, we (1) summarize the visual characteristics, descriptors, and signs that may be helpful in management of nodules identified on screening CT, (2) discuss current quantitative and multimodality techniques that aid in the differentiation of nodules, and (3) highlight the power, pitfalls, and limitations of these various techniques.
Diffuse parenchymal lung diseases (DPLDs) are characterized by widespread pathological changes within the pulmonary tissue that impair the elasticity and gas exchange properties of the lungs. ...Clinical-radiological diagnosis of these diseases remains challenging and their clinical course is characterized by variable disease progression. These challenges have hindered the introduction of robust objective biomarkers for patient-specific prediction based on specific phenotypes in clinical practice for patients with DPLD. Therefore, strategies facilitating individualized clinical management, staging and identification of specific phenotypes linked to clinical disease outcomes or therapeutic responses are urgently needed. A classification schema consistently reflecting the radiological, clinical (lung function and clinical outcomes) and pathological features of a disease represents a critical need in modern pulmonary medicine. Herein, we report a quantitative stratification paradigm to identify subsets of DPLD patients with characteristic radiologic patterns in an unsupervised manner and demonstrate significant correlation of these self-organized disease groups with clinically accepted surrogate endpoints. The proposed consistent and reproducible technique could potentially transform diagnostic staging, clinical management and prognostication of DPLD patients as well as facilitate patient selection for clinical trials beyond the ability of current radiological tools. In addition, the sequential quantitative stratification of the type and extent of parenchymal process may allow standardized and objective monitoring of disease, early assessment of treatment response and mortality prediction for DPLD patients.
Increased clinical use of chest high-resolution computed tomography results in increased identification of lung adenocarcinomas and persistent subsolid opacities. However, these lesions range from ...very indolent to extremely aggressive tumors. Clinically relevant diagnostic tools to noninvasively risk stratify and guide individualized management of these lesions are lacking. Research efforts investigating semiquantitative measures to decrease interrater and intrarater variability are emerging, and in some cases steps have been taken to automate this process. However, many such methods currently are still suboptimal, require validation and are not yet clinically applicable. The computer-aided nodule assessment and risk yield software application represents a validated tool for the automated, quantitative, and noninvasive tool for risk stratification of adenocarcinoma lung nodules. Computer-aided nodule assessment and risk yield correlates well with consensus histology and postsurgical patient outcomes, and therefore may help to guide individualized patient management, for example, in identification of nodules amenable to radiological surveillance, or in need of adjunctive therapy.