Economic recession might worsen health in low-income and middle-income countries with precarious job markets and weak social protection systems. Between 2014–16, a major economic crisis occurred in ...Brazil. We aimed to assess the association between economic recession and adult mortality in Brazil and to ascertain whether health and social welfare programmes in the country had a protective effect against the negative impact of this recession.
In this longitudinal analysis, we obtained data from the Brazilian Ministry of Health, the Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics, the Ministry of Social Development and Fight Against Hunger, and the Information System for the Public Budget in Health to assess changes in state unemployment level and mortality among adults (aged ≥15 years) in Brazil between 2012 and 2017. Outcomes were municipal all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates for all adults and across population subgroups stratified by age, sex, and race. We used fixed-effect panel regression models with quarterly timepoints to assess the association between recession and changes in mortality. Mortality and unemployment rates were detrended using Hodrick–Prescott filters to assess cyclical variation and control for underlying trends. We tested interactions between unemployment and terciles of municipal social protection and health-care expenditure to assess whether the relationship between unemployment and mortality varied.
Between 2012 and 2017, 7 069 242 deaths were recorded among adults (aged ≥15 years) in 5565 municipalities in Brazil. During this time period, the mean crude municipal adult mortality rate increased by 8·0% from 143·1 deaths per 100 000 in 2012 to 154·5 deaths per 100 000 in 2017. An increase in unemployment rate of 1 percentage-point was associated with a 0·50 increase per 100 000 population per rter (95% CI 0·09–0·91) in all-cause mortality, mainly due to cancer and cardiovascular disease. Between 2012 and 2017, higher unemployment accounted for 31 415 excess deaths (95% CI 29 698–33 132). All-cause mortality increased among black or mixed race (pardo) Brazilians (a 0·46 increase 95% CI 0·15–0·80), men (0·67 0·22–1·13), and individuals aged 30–59 years (0·43 0·16–0·69 per 1 percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate. No significant association was identified between unemployment and all-cause mortality for white Brazilian, women, adolescents (aged 15–29 years), or older and retired individuals (aged ≥60 years). In municipalities with high expenditure on health and social protection programmes, no significant increases in recession-related mortality were observed.
The Brazilian recession contributed to increases in mortality. However, health and social protection expenditure seemed to mitigate detrimental health effects, especially among vulnerable populations. This evidence provides support for stronger health and social protection systems globally.
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Universal health coverage (UHC) can play an important role in achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 10, which addresses reducing inequalities, but little supporting evidence is available from ...low- and middle-income countries. Brazil's Estratégia de Saúde da Família (ESF) (family health strategy) is a community-based primary healthcare (PHC) programme that has been expanding since the 1990s and is the main platform for delivering UHC in the country. We evaluated whether expansion of the ESF was associated with differential reductions in mortality amenable to PHC between racial groups.
Municipality-level longitudinal fixed-effects panel regressions were used to examine associations between ESF coverage and mortality from ambulatory-care-sensitive conditions (ACSCs) in black/pardo (mixed race) and white individuals over the period 2000-2013. Models were adjusted for socio-economic development and wider health system variables. Over the period 2000-2013, there were 281,877 and 318,030 ACSC deaths (after age standardisation) in the black/pardo and white groups, respectively, in the 1,622 municipalities studied. Age-standardised ACSC mortality fell from 93.3 to 57.9 per 100,000 population in the black/pardo group and from 75.7 to 49.2 per 100,000 population in the white group. ESF expansion (from 0% to 100%) was associated with a 15.4% (rate ratio RR: 0.846; 95% CI: 0.796-0.899) reduction in ACSC mortality in the black/pardo group compared with a 6.8% (RR: 0.932; 95% CI: 0.892-0.974) reduction in the white group (coefficients significantly different, p = 0.012). These differential benefits were driven by greater reductions in mortality from infectious diseases, nutritional deficiencies and anaemia, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease in the black/pardo group. Although the analysis is ecological, sensitivity analyses suggest that over 30% of black/pardo deaths would have to be incorrectly coded for the results to be invalid. This study is limited by the use of municipal-aggregate data, which precludes individual-level inference. Omitted variable bias, where factors associated with ESF expansion are also associated with changes in mortality rates, may have influenced our findings, although sensitivity analyses show the robustness of the findings to pre-ESF trends and the inclusion of other municipal-level factors that could be associated with coverage.
PHC expansion is associated with reductions in racial group inequalities in mortality in Brazil. These findings highlight the importance of investment in PHC to achieve the SDGs aimed at improving health and reducing inequalities.
Since 2015, a major economic crisis in Brazil has led to increasing poverty and the implementation of long-term fiscal austerity measures that will substantially reduce expenditure on social welfare ...programmes as a percentage of the country's GDP over the next 20 years. The Bolsa Família Programme (BFP)-one of the largest conditional cash transfer programmes in the world-and the nationwide primary healthcare strategy (Estratégia Saúde da Família ESF) are affected by fiscal austerity, despite being among the policy interventions with the strongest estimated impact on child mortality in the country. We investigated how reduced coverage of the BFP and ESF-compared to an alternative scenario where the level of social protection under these programmes is maintained-may affect the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and socioeconomic inequalities in child health in the country until 2030, the end date of the Sustainable Development Goals.
We developed and validated a microsimulation model, creating a synthetic cohort of all 5,507 Brazilian municipalities for the period 2017-2030. This model was based on the longitudinal dataset and effect estimates from a previously published study that evaluated the effects of poverty, the BFP, and the ESF on child health. We forecast the economic crisis and the effect of reductions in BFP and ESF coverage due to current fiscal austerity on the U5MR, and compared this scenario with a scenario where these programmes maintain the levels of social protection by increasing or decreasing with the size of Brazil's vulnerable populations (policy response scenarios). We used fixed effects multivariate regression models including BFP and ESF coverage and accounting for secular trends, demographic and socioeconomic changes, and programme duration effects. With the maintenance of the levels of social protection provided by the BFP and ESF, in the most likely economic crisis scenario the U5MR is expected to be 8.57% (95% CI: 6.88%-10.24%) lower in 2030 than under fiscal austerity-a cumulative 19,732 (95% CI: 10,207-29,285) averted under-five deaths between 2017 and 2030. U5MRs from diarrhoea, malnutrition, and lower respiratory tract infections are projected to be 39.3% (95% CI: 36.9%-41.8%), 35.8% (95% CI: 31.5%-39.9%), and 8.5% (95% CI: 4.1%-12.0%) lower, respectively, in 2030 under the maintenance of BFP and ESF coverage, with 123,549 fewer under-five hospitalisations from all causes over the study period. Reduced coverage of the BFP and ESF will also disproportionately affect U5MR in the most vulnerable areas, with the U5MR in the poorest quintile of municipalities expected to be 11.0% (95% CI: 8.0%-13.8%) lower in 2030 under the maintenance of BFP and ESF levels of social protection than under fiscal austerity, compared to no difference in the richest quintile. Declines in health inequalities over the last decade will also stop under a fiscal austerity scenario: the U5MR concentration index is expected to remain stable over the period 2017-2030, compared to a 13.3% (95% CI: 5.6%-21.8%) reduction under the maintenance of BFP and ESF levels of protection. Limitations of our analysis are the ecological nature of the study, uncertainty around future macroeconomic scenarios, and potential changes in other factors affecting child health. A wide range of sensitivity analyses were conducted to minimise these limitations.
The implementation of fiscal austerity measures in Brazil can be responsible for substantively higher childhood morbidity and mortality than expected under maintenance of social protection-threatening attainment of Sustainable Development Goals for child health and reducing inequality.
Summary Background In the past 15 years, Brazil has undergone notable social and public health changes, including a large reduction in child mortality. The Bolsa Familia Programme (BFP) is a ...widespread conditional cash transfer programme, launched in 2003, which transfers cash to poor households (maximum income US$70 per person a month) when they comply with conditions related to health and education. Transfers range from $18 to $175 per month, depending on the income and composition of the family. We aimed to assess the effect of the BFP on deaths of children younger than 5 years (under-5), overall and resulting from specific causes associated with poverty: malnutrition, diarrhoea, and lower respiratory infections. Methods The study had a mixed ecological design. It covered the period from 2004–09 and included 2853 (of 5565) municipalities with death and livebirth statistics of adequate quality. We used government sources to calculate all-cause under-5 mortality rates and under-5 mortality rates for selected causes. BFP coverage was classified as low (0·0–17·1%), intermediate (17·2–32·0%), high (>32·0%), or consolidated (>32·0% and target population coverage ≥100% for at least 4 years). We did multivariable regression analyses of panel data with fixed-effects negative binomial models, adjusted for relevant social and economic covariates, and for the effect of the largest primary health-care scheme in the country (Family Health Programme). Findings Under-5 mortality rate, overall and resulting from poverty-related causes, decreased as BFP coverage increased. The rate ratios (RR) for the effect of the BFP on overall under-5 mortality rate were 0·94 (95% CI 0·92–0·96) for intermediate coverage, 0·88 (0·85–0·91) for high coverage, and 0·83 (0·79–0·88) for consolidated coverage. The effect of consolidated BFP coverage was highest on under-5 mortality resulting from malnutrition (RR 0·35; 95% CI 0·24–0·50) and diarrhoea (0·47; 0·37–0·61). Interpretation A conditional cash transfer programme can greatly contribute to a decrease in childhood mortality overall, and in particular for deaths attributable to poverty-related causes such as malnutrition and diarrhoea, in a large middle-income country such as Brazil. Funding National Institutes of Science and Technology Programme, Ministry of Science and Technology, and Council for Scientific and Technological Development Programme (CNPq), Brazil.
Expanding delivery of primary healthcare to urban poor populations is a priority in many low- and middle-income countries. This remains a key challenge in Brazil despite expansion of the country's ...internationally recognized Family Health Strategy (FHS) over the past two decades. This study evaluates the impact of an ambitious program to rapidly expand FHS coverage in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, since 2008.
A cohort of 1,241,351 low-income adults (observed January 2010-December 2016; total person-years 6,498,607) with linked FHS utilization and mortality records was analyzed using flexible parametric survival models. Time-to-death from all-causes and selected causes were estimated for FHS users and nonusers. Models employed inverse probability treatment weighting and regression adjustment (IPTW-RA). The cohort was 61% female (751,895) and had a mean age of 36 years (standard deviation 16.4). Only 18,721 individuals (1.5%) had higher education, whereas 102,899 (8%) had no formal education. Two thirds of individuals (827,250; 67%) were in receipt of conditional cash transfers (Bolsa Família). A total of 34,091 deaths were analyzed, of which 8,765 (26%) were due to cardiovascular disease; 5,777 (17%) were due to neoplasms; 5,683 (17%) were due to external causes; 3,152 (9%) were due to respiratory diseases; and 3,115 (9%) were due to infectious and parasitic diseases. One third of the cohort (467,155; 37.6%) used FHS services. In IPTW-RA survival analysis, an average FHS user had a 44% lower hazard of all-cause mortality (HR: 0.56, 95% CI 0.54-0.59, p < 0.001) and a 5-year risk reduction of 8.3 per 1,000 (95% CI 7.8-8.9, p < 0.001) compared with a non-FHS user. There were greater reductions in the risk of death for FHS users who were black (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.46-0.54, p < 0.001) or pardo (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.54-0.60, p < 0.001) compared with white (HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.56-0.63, p < 0.001); had lower educational attainment (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.46-0.55, p < 0.001) for those with no education compared to no significant association for those with higher education (p = 0.758); or were in receipt of conditional cash transfers (Bolsa Família) (HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.49-0.54, p < 0.001) compared with nonrecipients (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.60-0.67, p < 0.001). Key limitations in this study are potential unobserved confounding through selection into the program and linkage errors, although analytical approaches have minimized the potential for bias.
FHS utilization in urban poor populations in Brazil was associated with a lower risk of death, with greater reductions among more deprived race/ethnic and socioeconomic groups. Increased investment in primary healthcare is likely to improve health and reduce health inequalities in urban poor populations globally.
To analyze whether income inequality and other social determinants are associated with suicide rate in Brazil.
This study used panel data from all 5,507 Brazilian municipalities from 2000 to 2011. ...Suicide rates were calculated by sex and standardized by age for each municipality and year. The independent variables of the regression model included the Gini Index, per capita income, percentage of individuals with up to eight years of education, urbanization, average number of residents per household, percentage of divorced people, of Catholics, Pentecostals, and Evangelicals. A multivariable negative binomial regression for panel data with fixed-effects specification was performed.
The Gini index was positively associated with suicide rates; the rate ratio (RR) was 1.055 (95% CI: 1.011-1.101). Of the other social determinants, income had a significant negative association with suicide rates (RR: 0.968, 95% CI: 0.948-0.988), whereas a low-level education had a positive association (RR: 1.015, 95% CI: 1.010-1.021).
Income inequality represents a community-level risk factor for suicide rates in Brazil. The decrease in income inequality, increase in income per capita, and decrease in the percentage of individuals who did not complete basic studies may have counteracted the increase in suicides in the last decade. Other changes, such as the decrease in the mean residents per household, may have contributed to their increase. Therefore, the implementation of social policies that may improve the population's socioeconomic conditions and reduce income inequality in Brazil, and in other low and middle-income countries, can help to reduce suicide rates.
Brazil's Estratégia Saúde da Família (ESF) is one of the largest and most robustly evaluated primary healthcare programmes of the world, but it could be affected by fiscal austerity measures and by ...the possible end of the Mais Médicos programme (MMP)-a major intervention to increase primary care doctors in underserved areas. We forecast the impact of alternative scenarios of ESF coverage changes on under-70 mortality from ambulatory care-sensitive conditions (ACSCs) until 2030, the date for achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
A synthetic cohort of 5507 Brazilian municipalities was created for the period 2017-2030. A municipal-level microsimulation model was developed and validated using longitudinal data and estimates from a previous retrospective study evaluating the effects of municipal ESF coverage on mortality rates. Reductions in ESF coverage, and its effects on ACSC mortality, were forecast based on two probable austerity scenarios, compared with the maintenance of the current coverage or the expansion to 100%. Fixed effects longitudinal regression models were employed to account for secular trends, demographic and socioeconomic changes, healthcare-related variables, and programme duration effects.
Under austerity scenarios of decreasing ESF coverage with and without the MMP termination, mean ACSC mortality rates would be 8.60% (95% CI 7.03-10.21%; 48,546 excess premature/under-70 deaths along 2017-2030) and 5.80% (95% CI 4.23-7.35%; 27,685 excess premature deaths) higher respectively in 2030 compared to maintaining the current ESF coverage. Comparing decreasing ESF coverage and MMP termination with achieving 100% ESF coverage (Universal Health Coverage scenario) in 2030, mortality rates would be 11.12% higher (95% CI 9.47-12.76%; 83,937 premature deaths). Reductions in ESF coverage would have stronger effects on mortality from infectious diseases and nutritional deficiencies and would disproportionately impact poorer municipalities, with the concentration index for ACSC mortality 11.77% higher (95% CI 0.31-22.32%) and also ending historical declines in racial health inequalities between white and black/pardo Brazilians.
Reductions in primary healthcare coverage due to austerity measures are likely to be responsible for many avoidable deaths and may preclude achievement of SDGs for health and inequality in Brazil and in other low- and middle-income countries.
To end the AIDS epidemic by 2030, despite the increasing poverty and inequalities, policies should be designed to deal with population heterogeneity and environmental changes. Bottom-up designs, such ...as the Agent-Based Model (ABM), can model these features, dealing with such complexity. HIV/AIDS has a complex dynamic of structural factors, risk behaviors, biomedical characteristics and interventions. All embedded in unequal, stigmatized and heterogeneous social structure. To understand how ABMs can model this complexity, we performed a scoping review of HIV applications, highlighting their potentialities.
We searched on PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus repositories following the PRISMA extension for scoping reviews. Our inclusion criteria were HIV/AIDS studies with an ABM application. We identified the main articles using a local co-citation analysis and categorized the overall literature aims, (sub)populations, regions, and if the papers declared the use of ODD protocol and limitations.
We found 154 articles. We identified eleven main papers, and discussed them using the overall category results. Most studies model Transmission Dynamics (37/154), about Men who have sex with Men (MSM) (41/154), or individuals living in the US or South Africa (84/154). Recent studies applied ABM to model PrEP interventions (17/154) and Racial Disparities (12/154). Only six papers declared the use of ODD Protocol (6/154), and 34/154 didn't mention the study limitations.
While ABM is among the most sophisticated techniques available to model HIV/AIDS complexity. Their applications are still restricted to some realities. However, researchers are challenged to think about social structure due model characteristics, the inclusion of these features is still restricted to case-specific. Data and computational power availability can enhance this feature providing insightful results.
Early life is an important window of opportunity to improve health across the full lifecycle. An accumulating body of evidence suggests that exposure to adverse stressors during early life leads to ...developmental adaptations, which subsequently affect disease risk in later life. Also, geographical, socio-economic, and ethnic differences are related to health inequalities from early life onwards. To address these important public health challenges, many European pregnancy and childhood cohorts have been established over the last 30 years. The enormous wealth of data of these cohorts has led to important new biological insights and important impact for health from early life onwards. The impact of these cohorts and their data could be further increased by combining data from different cohorts. Combining data will lead to the possibility of identifying smaller effect estimates, and the opportunity to better identify risk groups and risk factors leading to disease across the lifecycle across countries. Also, it enables research on better causal understanding and modelling of life course health trajectories. The EU Child Cohort Network, established by the Horizon2020-funded LifeCycle Project, brings together nineteen pregnancy and childhood cohorts, together including more than 250,000 children and their parents. A large set of variables has been harmonised and standardized across these cohorts. The harmonized data are kept within each institution and can be accessed by external researchers through a shared federated data analysis platform using the R-based platform DataSHIELD, which takes relevant national and international data regulations into account. The EU Child Cohort Network has an open character. All protocols for data harmonization and setting up the data analysis platform are available online. The EU Child Cohort Network creates great opportunities for researchers to use data from different cohorts, during and beyond the LifeCycle Project duration. It also provides a novel model for collaborative research in large research infrastructures with individual-level data. The LifeCycle Project will translate results from research using the EU Child Cohort Network into recommendations for targeted prevention strategies to improve health trajectories for current and future generations by optimizing their earliest phases of life.
Highlighted by the rise of COVID-19, climate change, and conflict, socially vulnerable populations are least resilient to disaster. In infectious disease management, mathematical models are a ...commonly used tool. Researchers should include social vulnerability in models to strengthen their utility in reflecting real-world dynamics. We conducted a scoping review to evaluate how researchers have incorporated social vulnerability into infectious disease mathematical models.
The methodology followed the Joanna Briggs Institute and updated Arksey and O'Malley frameworks, verified by the PRISMA-ScR checklist. PubMed, Clarivate Web of Science, Scopus, EBSCO Africa Wide Information, and Cochrane Library were systematically searched for peer-reviewed published articles. Screening and extracting data were done by two independent researchers.
Of 4075 results, 89 articles were identified. Two-thirds of articles used a compartmental model (n = 58, 65.2%), with a quarter using agent-based models (n = 24, 27.0%). Overall, routine indicators, namely age and sex, were among the most frequently used measures (n = 42, 12.3%; n = 22, 6.4%, respectively). Only one measure related to culture and social behaviour (0.3%). For compartmental models, researchers commonly constructed distinct models for each level of a social vulnerability measure and included new parameters or influenced standard parameters in model equations (n = 30, 51.7%). For all agent-based models, characteristics were assigned to hosts (n = 24, 100.0%), with most models including age, contact behaviour, and/or sex (n = 18, 75.0%; n = 14, 53.3%; n = 10, 41.7%, respectively).
Given the importance of equitable and effective infectious disease management, there is potential to further the field. Our findings demonstrate that social vulnerability is not considered holistically. There is a focus on incorporating routine demographic indicators but important cultural and social behaviours that impact health outcomes are excluded. It is crucial to develop models that foreground social vulnerability to not only design more equitable interventions, but also to develop more effective infectious disease control and elimination strategies. Furthermore, this study revealed the lack of transparency around data sources, inconsistent reporting, lack of collaboration with local experts, and limited studies focused on modelling cultural indicators. These challenges are priorities for future research.
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