Summary Background Reduced muscular strength, as measured by grip strength, has been associated with an increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Grip strength is appealing as a ...simple, quick, and inexpensive means of stratifying an individual's risk of cardiovascular death. However, the prognostic value of grip strength with respect to the number and range of populations and confounders is unknown. The aim of this study was to assess the independent prognostic importance of grip strength measurement in socioculturally and economically diverse countries. Methods The Prospective Urban-Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a large, longitudinal population study done in 17 countries of varying incomes and sociocultural settings. We enrolled an unbiased sample of households, which were eligible if at least one household member was aged 35–70 years and if household members intended to stay at that address for another 4 years. Participants were assessed for grip strength, measured using a Jamar dynamometer. During a median follow-up of 4·0 years (IQR 2·9–5·1), we assessed all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, non-cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction, stroke, diabetes, cancer, pneumonia, hospital admission for pneumonia or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), hospital admission for any respiratory disease (including COPD, asthma, tuberculosis, and pneumonia), injury due to fall, and fracture. Study outcomes were adjudicated using source documents by a local investigator, and a subset were adjudicated centrally. Findings Between January, 2003, and December, 2009, a total of 142 861 participants were enrolled in the PURE study, of whom 139 691 with known vital status were included in the analysis. During a median follow-up of 4·0 years (IQR 2·9–5·1), 3379 (2%) of 139 691 participants died. After adjustment, the association between grip strength and each outcome, with the exceptions of cancer and hospital admission due to respiratory illness, was similar across country-income strata. Grip strength was inversely associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio per 5 kg reduction in grip strength 1·16, 95% CI 1·13–1·20; p<0·0001), cardiovascular mortality (1·17, 1·11–1·24; p<0·0001), non-cardiovascular mortality (1·17, 1·12–1·21; p<0·0001), myocardial infarction (1·07, 1·02–1·11; p=0·002), and stroke (1·09, 1·05–1·15; p<0·0001). Grip strength was a stronger predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality than systolic blood pressure. We found no significant association between grip strength and incident diabetes, risk of hospital admission for pneumonia or COPD, injury from fall, or fracture. In high-income countries, the risk of cancer and grip strength were positively associated (0·916, 0·880–0·953; p<0·0001), but this association was not found in middle-income and low-income countries. Interpretation This study suggests that measurement of grip strength is a simple, inexpensive risk-stratifying method for all-cause death, cardiovascular death, and cardiovascular disease. Further research is needed to identify determinants of muscular strength and to test whether improvement in strength reduces mortality and cardiovascular disease. Funding Full funding sources listed at end of paper (see Acknowledgments).
Patients with diabetes are at higher risk for death and cardiovascular outcomes than the general population. We investigated whether the excess risk of death and cardiovascular events among patients ...with type 2 diabetes could be reduced or eliminated.
In a cohort study, we included 271,174 patients with type 2 diabetes who were registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Register and matched them with 1,355,870 controls on the basis of age, sex, and county. We assessed patients with diabetes according to age categories and according to the presence of five risk factors (elevated glycated hemoglobin level, elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level, albuminuria, smoking, and elevated blood pressure). Cox regression was used to study the excess risk of outcomes (death, acute myocardial infarction, stroke, and hospitalization for heart failure) associated with smoking and the number of variables outside target ranges. We also examined the relationship between various risk factors and cardiovascular outcomes.
The median follow-up among all the study participants was 5.7 years, during which 175,345 deaths occurred. Among patients with type 2 diabetes, the excess risk of outcomes decreased stepwise for each risk-factor variable within the target range. Among patients with diabetes who had all five variables within target ranges, the hazard ratio for death from any cause, as compared with controls, was 1.06 (95% confidence interval CI, 1.00 to 1.12), the hazard ratio for acute myocardial infarction was 0.84 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.93), and the hazard ratio for stroke was 0.95 (95% CI, 0.84 to 1.07). The risk of hospitalization for heart failure was consistently higher among patients with diabetes than among controls (hazard ratio, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.34 to 1.57). In patients with type 2 diabetes, a glycated hemoglobin level outside the target range was the strongest predictor of stroke and acute myocardial infarction; smoking was the strongest predictor of death.
Patients with type 2 diabetes who had five risk-factor variables within the target ranges appeared to have little or no excess risk of death, myocardial infarction, or stroke, as compared with the general population. (Funded by the Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions and others.).
The optimal range of sodium intake for cardiovascular health is controversial.
We obtained morning fasting urine samples from 101,945 persons in 17 countries and estimated 24-hour sodium and ...potassium excretion (used as a surrogate for intake). We examined the association between estimated urinary sodium and potassium excretion and the composite outcome of death and major cardiovascular events.
The mean estimated sodium and potassium excretion was 4.93 g per day and 2.12 g per day, respectively. With a mean follow-up of 3.7 years, the composite outcome occurred in 3317 participants (3.3%). As compared with an estimated sodium excretion of 4.00 to 5.99 g per day (reference range), a higher estimated sodium excretion (≥ 7.00 g per day) was associated with an increased risk of the composite outcome (odds ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval CI, 1.02 to 1.30), as well as increased risks of death and major cardiovascular events considered separately. The association between a high estimated sodium excretion and the composite outcome was strongest among participants with hypertension (P=0.02 for interaction), with an increased risk at an estimated sodium excretion of 6.00 g or more per day. As compared with the reference range, an estimated sodium excretion that was below 3.00 g per day was also associated with an increased risk of the composite outcome (odds ratio, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.44). As compared with an estimated potassium excretion that was less than 1.50 g per day, higher potassium excretion was associated with a reduced risk of the composite outcome.
In this study in which sodium intake was estimated on the basis of measured urinary excretion, an estimated sodium intake between 3 g per day and 6 g per day was associated with a lower risk of death and cardiovascular events than was either a higher or lower estimated level of intake. As compared with an estimated potassium excretion that was less than 1.50 g per day, higher potassium excretion was associated with a lower risk of death and cardiovascular events. (Funded by the Population Health Research Institute and others.).
Long-term trends in excess risk of death and cardiovascular outcomes have not been extensively studied in persons with type 1 diabetes or type 2 diabetes.
We included patients registered in the ...Swedish National Diabetes Register from 1998 through 2012 and followed them through 2014. Trends in deaths and cardiovascular events were estimated with Cox regression and standardized incidence rates. For each patient, controls who were matched for age, sex, and county were randomly selected from the general population.
Among patients with type 1 diabetes, absolute changes during the study period in the incidence rates of sentinel outcomes per 10,000 person-years were as follows: death from any cause, -31.4 (95% confidence interval CI, -56.1 to -6.7); death from cardiovascular disease, -26.0 (95% CI, -42.6 to -9.4); death from coronary heart disease, -21.7 (95% CI, -37.1 to -6.4); and hospitalization for cardiovascular disease, -45.7 (95% CI, -71.4 to -20.1). Absolute changes per 10,000 person-years among patients with type 2 diabetes were as follows: death from any cause, -69.6 (95% CI, -95.9 to -43.2); death from cardiovascular disease, -110.0 (95% CI, -128.9 to -91.1); death from coronary heart disease, -91.9 (95% CI, -108.9 to -75.0); and hospitalization for cardiovascular disease, -203.6 (95% CI, -230.9 to -176.3). Patients with type 1 diabetes had roughly 40% greater reduction in cardiovascular outcomes than controls, and patients with type 2 diabetes had roughly 20% greater reduction than controls. Reductions in fatal outcomes were similar in patients with type 1 diabetes and controls, whereas patients with type 2 diabetes had smaller reductions in fatal outcomes than controls.
In Sweden from 1998 through 2014, mortality and the incidence of cardiovascular outcomes declined substantially among persons with diabetes, although fatal outcomes declined less among those with type 2 diabetes than among controls. (Funded by the Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions and others.).
The excess risks of death from any cause and death from cardiovascular causes among persons with type 2 diabetes and various levels of glycemic control and renal complications are unknown. In this ...registry-based study, we assessed these risks according to glycemic control and renal complications among persons with type 2 diabetes.
We included patients with type 2 diabetes who were registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Register on or after January 1, 1998. For each patient, five controls were randomly selected from the general population and matched according to age, sex, and county. All the participants were followed until December 31, 2011, in the Swedish Registry for Cause-Specific Mortality.
The mean follow-up was 4.6 years in the diabetes group and 4.8 years in the control group. Overall, 77,117 of 435,369 patients with diabetes (17.7%) died, as compared with 306,097 of 2,117,483 controls (14.5%) (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval CI, 1.14 to 1.16). The rate of cardiovascular death was 7.9% among patients versus 6.1% among controls (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.13 to 1.15). The excess risks of death from any cause and cardiovascular death increased with younger age, worse glycemic control, and greater severity of renal complications. As compared with controls, the hazard ratio for death from any cause among patients younger than 55 years of age who had a glycated hemoglobin level of 6.9% or less (≤52 mmol per mole of nonglycated hemoglobin) was 1.92 (95% CI, 1.75 to 2.11); the corresponding hazard ratio among patients older than 75 years of age or older was 0.95 (95% CI, 0.94 to 0.96). Among patients with normoalbuminuria, the hazard ratio for death among those younger than 55 years of age with a glycated hemoglobin level of 6.9% or less, as compared with controls, was 1.60 (95% CI, 1.40 to 1.82); the corresponding hazard ratio among patients older than 75 years of age or older was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.78), and patients 65 to 75 years of age also had a significantly lower risk of death (hazard ratio, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.84 to 0.91).
Mortality among persons with type 2 diabetes, as compared with that in the general population, varied greatly, from substantial excess risks in large patient groups to lower risks of death depending on age, glycemic control, and renal complications. (Funded by the Swedish government and others.).
Global estimates of the effect of common modifiable risk factors on cardiovascular disease and mortality are largely based on data from separate studies, using different methodologies. The ...Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study overcomes these limitations by using similar methods to prospectively measure the effect of modifiable risk factors on cardiovascular disease and mortality across 21 countries (spanning five continents) grouped by different economic levels.
In this multinational, prospective cohort study, we examined associations for 14 potentially modifiable risk factors with mortality and cardiovascular disease in 155 722 participants without a prior history of cardiovascular disease from 21 high-income, middle-income, or low-income countries (HICs, MICs, or LICs). The primary outcomes for this paper were composites of cardiovascular disease events (defined as cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure) and mortality. We describe the prevalence, hazard ratios (HRs), and population-attributable fractions (PAFs) for cardiovascular disease and mortality associated with a cluster of behavioural factors (ie, tobacco use, alcohol, diet, physical activity, and sodium intake), metabolic factors (ie, lipids, blood pressure, diabetes, obesity), socioeconomic and psychosocial factors (ie, education, symptoms of depression), grip strength, and household and ambient pollution. Associations between risk factors and the outcomes were established using multivariable Cox frailty models and using PAFs for the entire cohort, and also by countries grouped by income level. Associations are presented as HRs and PAFs with 95% CIs.
Between Jan 6, 2005, and Dec 4, 2016, 155 722 participants were enrolled and followed up for measurement of risk factors. 17 249 (11·1%) participants were from HICs, 102 680 (65·9%) were from MICs, and 35 793 (23·0%) from LICs. Approximately 70% of cardiovascular disease cases and deaths in the overall study population were attributed to modifiable risk factors. Metabolic factors were the predominant risk factors for cardiovascular disease (41·2% of the PAF), with hypertension being the largest (22·3% of the PAF). As a cluster, behavioural risk factors contributed most to deaths (26·3% of the PAF), although the single largest risk factor was a low education level (12·5% of the PAF). Ambient air pollution was associated with 13·9% of the PAF for cardiovascular disease, although different statistical methods were used for this analysis. In MICs and LICs, household air pollution, poor diet, low education, and low grip strength had stronger effects on cardiovascular disease or mortality than in HICs.
Most cardiovascular disease cases and deaths can be attributed to a small number of common, modifiable risk factors. While some factors have extensive global effects (eg, hypertension and education), others (eg, household air pollution and poor diet) vary by a country's economic level. Health policies should focus on risk factors that have the greatest effects on averting cardiovascular disease and death globally, with additional emphasis on risk factors of greatest importance in specific groups of countries.
Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).
The excess risk of death from any cause and of death from cardiovascular causes is unknown among patients with type 1 diabetes and various levels of glycemic control. We conducted a registry-based ...observational study to determine the excess risk of death according to the level of glycemic control in a Swedish population of patients with diabetes.
We included in our study patients with type 1 diabetes registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Register after January 1, 1998. For each patient, five controls were randomly selected from the general population and matched according to age, sex, and county. Patients and controls were followed until December 31, 2011, through the Swedish Register for Cause-Specific Mortality.
The mean age of the patients with diabetes and the controls at baseline was 35.8 and 35.7 years, respectively, and 45.1% of the participants in each group were women. The mean follow-up in the diabetes and control groups was 8.0 and 8.3 years, respectively. Overall, 2701 of 33,915 patients with diabetes (8.0%) died, as compared with 4835 of 169,249 controls (2.9%) (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.52; 95% confidence interval CI, 3.06 to 4.04); the corresponding rates of death from cardiovascular causes were 2.7% and 0.9% (adjusted hazard ratio, 4.60; 95% CI, 3.47 to 6.10). The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for death from any cause according to the glycated hemoglobin level for patients with diabetes as compared with controls were 2.36 (95% CI, 1.97 to 2.83) for a glycated hemoglobin level of 6.9% or lower (≤52 mmol per mole), 2.38 (95% CI, 2.02 to 2.80) for a level of 7.0 to 7.8% (53 to 62 mmol per mole), 3.11 (95% CI, 2.66 to 3.62) for a level of 7.9 to 8.7% (63 to 72 mmol per mole), 3.65 (95% CI, 3.11 to 4.30) for a level of 8.8 to 9.6% (73 to 82 mmol per mole), and 8.51 (95% CI, 7.24 to 10.01) for a level of 9.7% or higher (≥83 mmol per mole). Corresponding hazard ratios for death from cardiovascular causes were 2.92 (95% CI, 2.07 to 4.13), 3.39 (95% CI, 2.49 to 4.61), 4.44 (95% CI, 3.32 to 5.96), 5.35 (95% CI, 3.94 to 7.26), and 10.46 (95% CI, 7.62 to 14.37).
In our registry-based observational study, patients with type 1 diabetes and a glycated hemoglobin level of 6.9% or lower had a risk of death from any cause or from cardiovascular causes that was twice as high as the risk for matched controls. (Funded by the Swedish Society of Medicine and others.).
Most studies of outcomes after myocardial infarction (MI) focus on the acute phase after the index event. We assessed mortality and morbidity trends after the first year in survivors of acute MI, by ...conducting a systematic literature review.
Literature searches were conducted in Embase, MEDLINE, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews to identify epidemiological studies of long-term (>10 years) mortality and morbidity trends in individuals who had experienced an acute MI more than 1 year previously.
Thirteen articles met the inclusion criteria. Secular trends showed a consistent decrease in mortality and morbidity after acute MI from early to more recent study periods. The relative risk for all-cause death and cardiovascular outcomes (recurrent MI, cardiovascular death) was at least 30% higher than that in a general reference population at both 1-3 years and 3-5 years after MI. Risk factors leading to worse outcomes after MI included comorbid diabetes, hypertension and peripheral artery disease, older age, reduced renal function, and history of stroke.
There have been consistent improvements in secular trends for long-term survival and cardiovascular outcomes after MI. However, MI survivors remain at higher risk than the general population, particularly when additional risk factors such as diabetes, hypertension, or older age are present.
To our knowledge, no previous study has prospectively documented the incidence of common diseases and related mortality in high-income countries (HICs), middle-income countries (MICs), and low-income ...countries (LICs) with standardised approaches. Such information is key to developing global and context-specific health strategies. In our analysis of the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study, we aimed to evaluate differences in the incidence of common diseases, related hospital admissions, and related mortality in a large contemporary cohort of adults from 21 HICs, MICs, and LICs across five continents by use of standardised approaches.
The PURE study is a prospective, population-based cohort study of individuals aged 35–70 years who have been enrolled from 21 countries across five continents. The key outcomes were the incidence of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular diseases, cancers, injuries, respiratory diseases, and hospital admissions, and we calculated the age-standardised and sex-standardised incidence of these events per 1000 person-years.
This analysis assesses the incidence of events in 162 534 participants who were enrolled in the first two phases of the PURE core study, between Jan 6, 2005, and Dec 4, 2016, and who were assessed for a median of 9·5 years (IQR 8·5–10·9). During follow-up, 11 307 (7·0%) participants died, 9329 (5·7%) participants had cardiovascular disease, 5151 (3·2%) participants had a cancer, 4386 (2·7%) participants had injuries requiring hospital admission, 2911 (1·8%) participants had pneumonia, and 1830 (1·1%) participants had chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Cardiovascular disease occurred more often in LICs (7·1 cases per 1000 person-years) and in MICs (6·8 cases per 1000 person-years) than in HICs (4·3 cases per 1000 person-years). However, incident cancers, injuries, COPD, and pneumonia were most common in HICs and least common in LICs. Overall mortality rates in LICs (13·3 deaths per 1000 person-years) were double those in MICs (6·9 deaths per 1000 person-years) and four times higher than in HICs (3·4 deaths per 1000 person-years). This pattern of the highest mortality in LICs and the lowest in HICs was observed for all causes of death except cancer, where mortality was similar across country income levels. Cardiovascular disease was the most common cause of deaths overall (40%) but accounted for only 23% of deaths in HICs (vs 41% in MICs and 43% in LICs), despite more cardiovascular disease risk factors (as judged by INTERHEART risk scores) in HICs and the fewest such risk factors in LICs. The ratio of deaths from cardiovascular disease to those from cancer was 0·4 in HICs, 1·3 in MICs, and 3·0 in LICs, and four upper-MICs (Argentina, Chile, Turkey, and Poland) showed ratios similar to the HICs. Rates of first hospital admission and cardiovascular disease medication use were lowest in LICs and highest in HICs.
Among adults aged 35–70 years, cardiovascular disease is the major cause of mortality globally. However, in HICs and some upper-MICs, deaths from cancer are now more common than those from cardiovascular disease, indicating a transition in the predominant causes of deaths in middle-age. As cardiovascular disease decreases in many countries, mortality from cancer will probably become the leading cause of death. The high mortality in poorer countries is not related to risk factors, but it might be related to poorer access to health care.
Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).
Summary Background Although most cardiovascular disease occurs in low-income and middle-income countries, little is known about the use of effective secondary prevention medications in these ...communities. We aimed to assess use of proven effective secondary preventive drugs (antiplatelet drugs, β blockers, angiotensin-converting-enzyme ACE inhibitors or angiotensin-receptor blockers ARBs, and statins) in individuals with a history of coronary heart disease or stroke. Methods In the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiological (PURE) study, we recruited individuals aged 35–70 years from rural and urban communities in countries at various stages of economic development. We assessed rates of previous cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease or stroke) and use of proven effective secondary preventive drugs and blood-pressure-lowering drugs with standardised questionnaires, which were completed by telephone interviews, household visits, or on patient's presentation to clinics. We report estimates of drug use at national, community, and individual levels. Findings We enrolled 153 996 adults from 628 urban and rural communities in countries with incomes classified as high (three countries), upper-middle (seven), lower-middle (three), or low (four) between January, 2003, and December, 2009. 5650 participants had a self-reported coronary heart disease event (median 5·0 years previously IQR 2·0–10·0) and 2292 had stroke (4·0 years previously 2·0–8·0). Overall, few individuals with cardiovascular disease took antiplatelet drugs (25·3%), β blockers (17·4%), ACE inhibitors or ARBs (19·5%), or statins (14·6%). Use was highest in high-income countries (antiplatelet drugs 62·0%, β blockers 40·0%, ACE inhibitors or ARBs 49·8%, and statins 66·5%), lowest in low-income countries (8·8%, 9·7%, 5·2%, and 3·3%, respectively), and decreased in line with reduction of country economic status (ptrend <0·0001 for every drug type). Fewest patients received no drugs in high-income countries (11·2%), compared with 45·1% in upper middle-income countries, 69·3% in lower middle-income countries, and 80·2% in low-income countries. Drug use was higher in urban than rural areas (antiplatelet drugs 28·7% urban vs 21·3% rural, β blockers 23·5% vs 15·6%, ACE inhibitors or ARBs 22·8% vs 15·5%, and statins 19·9% vs 11·6%; all p<0·0001), with greatest variation in poorest countries (pinteraction <0·0001 for urban vs rural differences by country economic status). Country-level factors (eg, economic status) affected rates of drug use more than did individual-level factors (eg, age, sex, education, smoking status, body-mass index, and hypertension and diabetes statuses). Interpretation Because use of secondary prevention medications is low worldwide—especially in low-income countries and rural areas—systematic approaches are needed to improve the long-term use of basic, inexpensive, and effective drugs. Funding Full funding sources listed at end of paper (see Acknowledgments).
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