How to understand the mistakes we make about those on the other side of the political spectrum—and how they drive the affective polarization that is tearing us apart.It's well known that the ...political divide in the United States—particularly between Democrats and Republicans—has grown to alarming levels in recent decades. Affective polarization—emotional polarization, or the hostility between the parties—has reached an unprecedented fever pitch. In Undue Hate, Daniel F. Stone tackles the biases undergirding affective polarization head-on. Stone explains why we often develop objectively false, and overly negative, beliefs about the other side—causing us to dislike them more than we should.Approaching affective polarization through the lens of behavioral economics, Undue Hate is unique in its use of simple mathematical concepts and models to illustrate how we misjudge those we disagree with, for both political and nonpolitical issues. Stone argues that while our biases may vary, just about all of us unwisely exacerbate conflict at times—managing to make ourselves worse off in the long run. Finally, the book offers both short- and long-term solutions for tempering our bias and limiting its negative consequences—and, just maybe, finding a way back to understanding one another before it is too late.
Electronic intrusiveness is a form of cyber dating abuse that includes monitoring a partners’ location, whom a partner is talking to, and other private information via technology and social ...networking sites. The aim of this study was to further explore the prevalence of electronic intrusiveness, as well as to assess how electronic intrusiveness relates to in-person dating violence while controlling for known risk factors for in-person dating violence, namely, depression, emotion regulation, and acceptance of couple violence. Data for this study were drawn from the baseline assessment of a larger clinical trial. A sample of high-risk adolescent females between the ages of 14 and 17 with a lifetime history of prior dating violence victimization or perpetration was used. Participants completed self-report measures for all study variables. Findings demonstrate that perpetration of electronic intrusiveness within the past 3 months is common among a sample of high-risk adolescent females, with rates across various modes of technology ranging from 30% to 57%. Results also revealed electronic intrusiveness is associated with in-person dating violence perpetration after accounting for known risk factors. This study highlights the need to increase awareness of electronic intrusiveness and to better incorporate electronic intrusiveness into theoretical and empirical models of dating violence.
•Culturable and molecular fecal indicator removal was monitored during activated sludge wastewater treatment.•CrAssphage statistically correlated with adenovirus, polyomavirus, and somatic ...coliphage.•Molecular viral indicators were consistently detected in the final effluent, unlike bacterial indicators.•Literature review suggests site-specific variability of fecal indicator removal during wastewater treatment.
Wastewater treatment plants are typically monitored using fecal indicator bacteria to ensure adequate microbial water quality of the treated effluent. Fecal indicator bacteria exhibit poor correlation with virus fate in the environment, including during wastewater treatment. Viral-based microbial source tracking methods have the potential to overcome this limitation. The recently discovered human gut bacteriophage crAssphage is a promising viral human fecal indicator. In this current study, primary influent, primary effluent, secondary effluent, and final effluent of a conventional activated sludge wastewater treatment plant were analyzed for a suite of fecal indicators to evaluate the suitability of crAssphage as a wastewater process indicator for virus removal. CrAssphage was the most abundant fecal indicator measured through the wastewater treatment process. Culturable and molecular bacterial fecal pollution indicators showed higher removal than viral fecal pollution indicators, including crAssphage, confirming the necessity of a viral-specific fecal monitoring target. CrAssphage was strongly correlated with adenovirus and polyomavirus molecular indicators through the wastewater treatment process. Literature comparison demonstrated site-specific removal of molecular fecal indicators during wastewater treatment highlighting the need for local performance validation. The high abundance of crAssphage and correlation with pathogenic viruses suggests the potential suitability of crAssphage as a viral fecal pollution process indicator during wastewater treatment.
The hydroxyl radical, OH, initiates the removal of the majority of trace gases in the atmosphere, and together with the closely coupled species, the hydroperoxy radical, HO(2), is intimately involved ...in the oxidation chemistry of the atmosphere. This critical review discusses field measurements of local concentrations of OH and HO(2) radicals in the troposphere, and in particular the comparisons that have been made with numerical model calculations containing a detailed chemical mechanism. The level of agreement between field measurements of OH and HO(2) concentrations and model calculations for a given location provides an indication of the degree of understanding of the underlying oxidation chemistry. We review the measurement-model comparisons for a range of different environments sampled from the ground and from aircraft, including the marine boundary layer, continental low-NO(x) regions influenced by biogenic emissions, the polluted urban boundary layer, and polar regions. Although good agreement is found for some environments, there are significant discrepancies which remain unexplained, a notable example being unpolluted, forested regions. OH and HO(2) radicals are difficult species to measure in the troposphere, and we also review changes in detection methodology, quality assurance procedures such as instrument intercomparisons, and potential interferences.
•We construct an index of slant for 84 German news outlets.•We investigate if congeniality of news affects Facebook user engagement.•Users engage with congenial posts more than with uncongenial ...ones.•The effect is likely driven by psychological and social factors.
This study investigates the effects of variation in “congeniality” of news on Facebook user engagement (likes, shares, and comments). We compile an original data set of Facebook posts by 84 German news outlets on politicians that were investigated for criminal offenses from January 2012 to June 2017. We also construct an index of each outlet's media slant by comparing the language of the outlet with that of the main political parties, which allows us to measure the congeniality of the posts. We find that user engagement with congenial posts is higher than with uncongenial ones, especially in terms of likes. The within-outlet, within-topic design allows us to infer that the greater engagement with congenial news is likely driven by psychological and social factors, rather than a desire for accurate or otherwise instrumental information.
The author of this article describes a game-theory-based economics class on how people should, and do, form beliefs, communicate, and make decisions under uncertainty. Topics include Bayesian and ...non-Bayesian belief updating, the value of information, communication games, advertising, political media, and social learning. The only prerequisite is introductory microeconomics. The course also seeks to convey both the value of thinking in probabilities and awareness of mechanisms of strategic influence in students' everyday lives.
I present a model of affective polarization—growth in hostility over time between two parties—via quasi-Bayesian inference. In the model, two agents repeatedly choose actions. Each choice is based on ...a balance of concerns for private interests and the social good. More weight is put on private interests when an agent’s character is intrinsically more self-serving and when the other agent is believed to be more self-serving. Each agent Bayesian updates about the other’s character, and dislikes the other more when she is perceived as more self-serving. I characterize the effects on growth in dislike of three biases: a prior bias against the other agent’s character, the false consensus bias, and limited strategic thinking. Prior bias against the other’s character remains constant or declines over time, and actions do not diverge. The other two biases cause actions to become more extreme over time and repeatedly be “worse” than expected, causing mutual growth in dislike, that is, affective polarization. The magnitude of dislike can become arbitrarily large—even when both players are arbitrarily “good” (unselfish). The results imply that seemingly irrelevant cognitive biases can be an important cause of the devolution of relationships, in politics and beyond, and that subtlety and unawareness of bias can be key factors driving the degree of polarization.
Purpose: Few dating violence prevention programs assess how variations in initial violence risk affects responsiveness. This study examines the efficacy of Date SMART, a dating violence and sexual ...risk prevention program designed to target high-risk adolescent girls, in preventing dating violence in the context of varying initial levels of depressive symptoms. Method: A diverse sample of N = 109 female adolescents with a history of physical dating violence participated in a randomized controlled trial of the Date SMART program and a knowledge only (KO) comparison. Results: Using baseline depression level as a primary risk factor, a series of multilevel models revealed significant main effects of baseline depression such that higher baseline depression was associated with greater physical dating violence perpetration and victimization. Results also showed a three-way interaction for assessment point, depressive symptoms, and condition for physical dating violence perpetration. Specifically, those with higher baseline depression in Date SMART showed significantly less physical dating violence perpetration at follow-ups compared with those with higher baseline depression in the KO group. This difference in violence reduction between conditions was not observed for those with lower baseline depression. Discussion: Date SMART appears to effectively reduce physical dating violence perpetration in those with higher levels of initial risk. Current findings support that adolescents with different risk profiles respond differently to violence prevention programs.
•I argue that the “unmotivated bias” of overprecision causes partisan hostility.•Prior literature has focused on motivated reasoning and social identity theory.•I present evidence that overprecision ...increases hostility directly and indirectly.•The direct effects hold fixed ideology, partisanship, and motivated reasoning.•The indirect effects are via increasing strength of partisanship.
Extreme partisan animosity has been on the rise in the US and is prevalent around the world. This hostility is typically attributed to social group identity, motivated reasoning, or a combination thereof. In this paper, I empirically examine a novel contributing factor: the “unmotivated” cognitive bias of overprecision (overconfidence in precision of beliefs). Overprecision could cause partisan hostility indirectly via inflated confidence in one’s own ideology, partisan identity, or perceptions of social distance between the parties. Overprecision could also cause this hostility directly by causing excessively strong inferences from observed information that is either skewed against the out-party or simply misunderstood. Using a nationally representative sample, I find consistent support for direct effects of overprecision and mixed support for indirect effects. The point estimates imply a one standard deviation increase in a respondent’s overprecision predicts as much as a 0.71 standard deviation decline in relative out-party favorability.
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