Faced with an epidemic of an infectious disease, persons may take precautionary actions to try to reduce their risk. Such actions include avoiding situations that persons perceive to be risky, which ...can have negative health and economic effects. Therefore, we conducted a population-based survey of persons' precautionary actions in response to a hypothetical influenza pandemic. For the 5 European and 3 Asian regions that had been affected by severe acute respiratory syndrome, the pattern of reported precautionary action was broadly similar across the regions; approximately 75% of respondents reported that they would avoid public transportation and 20%-30% would try to stay indoors. Some regional differences were noted; Europeans were more likely than Asians to avoid places of entertainment, and Asians were more likely to avoid seeing physicians. This international survey provides insight into what might be expected during an influenza pandemic.
Early goal-directed therapy (EGDT) is recommended in international guidance for the resuscitation of patients presenting with early septic shock. However, adoption has been limited and uncertainty ...remains over its clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness.
The primary objective was to estimate the effect of EGDT compared with usual resuscitation on mortality at 90 days following randomisation and on incremental cost-effectiveness at 1 year. The secondary objectives were to compare EGDT with usual resuscitation for requirement for, and duration of, critical care unit organ support; length of stay in the emergency department (ED), critical care unit and acute hospital; health-related quality of life, resource use and costs at 90 days and at 1 year; all-cause mortality at 28 days, at acute hospital discharge and at 1 year; and estimated lifetime incremental cost-effectiveness.
A pragmatic, open, multicentre, parallel-group randomised controlled trial with an integrated economic evaluation.
Fifty-six NHS hospitals in England.
A total of 1260 patients who presented at EDs with septic shock.
EGDT (n = 630) or usual resuscitation (n = 630). Patients were randomly allocated 1 : 1.
All-cause mortality at 90 days after randomisation and incremental net benefit (at £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year) at 1 year.
Following withdrawals, data on 1243 (EGDT, n = 623; usual resuscitation, n = 620) patients were included in the analysis. By 90 days, 184 (29.5%) in the EGDT and 181 (29.2%) patients in the usual-resuscitation group had died p = 0.90; absolute risk reduction -0.3%, 95% confidence interval (CI) -5.4 to 4.7; relative risk 1.01, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.20. Treatment intensity was greater for the EGDT group, indicated by the increased use of intravenous fluids, vasoactive drugs and red blood cell transfusions. Increased treatment intensity was reflected by significantly higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores and more advanced cardiovascular support days in critical care for the EGDT group. At 1 year, the incremental net benefit for EGDT versus usual resuscitation was negative at -£725 (95% CI -£3000 to £1550). The probability that EGDT was more cost-effective than usual resuscitation was below 30%. There were no significant differences in any other secondary outcomes, including health-related quality of life, or adverse events.
Recruitment was lower at weekends and out of hours. The intervention could not be blinded.
There was no significant difference in all-cause mortality at 90 days for EGDT compared with usual resuscitation among adults identified with early septic shock presenting to EDs in England. On average, costs were higher in the EGDT group than in the usual-resuscitation group while quality-adjusted life-years were similar in both groups; the probability that it is cost-effective is < 30%.
The ProMISe (Protocolised Management In Sepsis) trial completes the planned trio of evaluations of EGDT across the USA, Australasia and England; all have indicated that EGDT is not superior to usual resuscitation. Recognising that each of the three individual, large trials has limited power for evaluating potentially important subgroups, the harmonised approach adopted provides the opportunity to conduct an individual patient data meta-analysis, enhancing both knowledge and generalisability.
Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN36307479.
This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 19, No. 97. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.
Abstract
The costly nature of health sector responses to humanitarian crises and resource constraints means that there is a need to identify methods for priority setting and long-term planning. One ...method is economic evaluation. The aim of this systematic review is to examine the use of economic evaluations in health-related humanitarian programmes in low- and middle-income countries. This review used peer-reviewed literature published between January 1980 and June 2018 extracted from four main electronic bibliographic databases. The eligibility criteria were full economic evaluations (which compare the costs and outcomes of at least two interventions and provide information on efficiency) of health-related services in humanitarian crises in low- and middle-countries. The quality of eligible studies is appraised using the modified 36-question Drummond checklist. From a total of 8127 total studies, 11 full economic evaluations were identified. All economic evaluations were cost-effectiveness analyses. Three of the 11 studies used a provider perspective, 2 studies used a healthcare system perspective, 3 studies used a societal perspective and 3 studies did not specify the perspective used. The lower quality studies failed to provide 7information on the unit of costs and did not justify the time horizon of costs and discount rates, or conduct a sensitivity analysis. There was limited geographic range of the studies, with 9 of the 11 studies conducted in Africa. Recommendations include greater use of economic evaluation methods and data to enhance the microeconomic understanding of health interventions in humanitarian settings to support greater efficiency and transparency and to strengthen capacity by recruiting economists and providing training in economic methods to humanitarian agencies.
The INTERVAL trial showed shorter inter-donation intervals could safely increase the frequency of whole-blood donation. We extended the INTERVAL trial to consider the relative cost-effectiveness of ...reduced inter-donation intervals.
Our within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) used data from 44,863 whole-blood donors randomly assigned to 12, 10 or 8 week (males), and 16, 14 or 12 week inter-donation intervals (females). The CEA analysed the number of whole-blood donations, deferrals including low- haemoglobin deferrals, and donors' health-related quality of life (QoL) to report costs and cost-effectiveness over two years.
The mean number of blood donation visits over two years was higher for the reduced interval strategies, for males (7.76, 6.60 and 5.68 average donations in the 8-, 10- and 12- week arms) and for females (5.10, 4.60 and 4.01 donations in the 12-, 14- and 16- week arms). For males, the average rate of deferral for low haemoglobin per session attended, was 5.71% (8- week arm), 3.73% (10- week), and 2.55% (12- week), and for females the rates were: 7.92% (12-week), 6.63% (14- week), and 5.05% (16- week). Donors' QoL was similar across strategies, although self-reported symptoms were increased with shorter donation intervals. The shorter interval strategies increased average cost, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of £9.51 (95% CI 9.33 to 9.69) per additional whole-blood donation for the 8- versus 12- week interval for males, and £10.17 (95% CI 9.80 to 10.54) for the 12- versus 16- week interval arm for females.
Over two years, reducing the minimum donation interval could provide additional units of whole-blood at a small additional cost, including for those donor subgroups whose blood type is in relatively high demand. However, the significance of self-reported symptoms needs to be investigated further before these policies are expanded.
In the UK, 10% of admissions to intensive care units receive continuous renal replacement therapy with regional citrate anticoagulation replacing systemic heparin anticoagulation over the last ...decade. Regional citrate anticoagulation is now used in > 50% of intensive care units, despite little evidence of safety or effectiveness.
The aim of the Renal Replacement Anticoagulant Management study was to evaluate the clinical and health economic impacts of intensive care units moving from systemic heparin anticoagulation to regional citrate anticoagulation for continuous renal replacement therapy.
This was an observational comparative effectiveness study.
The setting was NHS adult general intensive care units in England and Wales.
Participants were adults receiving continuous renal replacement therapy in an intensive care unit participating in the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre Case Mix Programme national clinical audit between 1 April 2009 and 31 March 2017.
Exposure - continuous renal replacement therapy in an intensive care unit after completion of transition to regional citrate anticoagulation. Comparator - continuous renal replacement therapy in an intensive care unit before starting transition to regional citrate anticoagulation or had not transitioned.
Primary effectiveness - all-cause mortality at 90 days. Primary economic - incremental net monetary benefit at 1 year. Secondary outcomes - mortality at hospital discharge, 30 days and 1 year; days of renal, cardiovascular and advanced respiratory support in intensive care unit; length of stay in intensive care unit and hospital; bleeding and thromboembolic events; prevalence of end-stage renal disease at 1 year; and estimated lifetime incremental net monetary benefit.
Individual patient data from the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre Case Mix Programme were linked with the UK Renal Registry, Hospital Episode Statistics (for England), Patient Episodes Data for Wales and Civil Registrations (Deaths) data sets, and combined with identified periods of systemic heparin anticoagulation and regional citrate anticoagulation (survey of intensive care units). Staff time and consumables were obtained from micro-costing. Continuous renal replacement therapy system failures were estimated from the Post-Intensive Care Risk-adjusted Alerting and Monitoring data set. EuroQol-3 Dimensions, three-level version, health-related quality of life was obtained from the Intensive Care Outcomes Network study.
Out of the 188 (94.9%) units that responded to the survey, 182 (96.8%) use continuous renal replacement therapy. After linkage, data were available from 69,001 patients across 181 intensive care units (60,416 during periods of systemic heparin anticoagulation use and 8585 during regional citrate anticoagulation use). The change to regional citrate anticoagulation was not associated with a step change in 90-day mortality (odds ratio 0.98, 95% confidence interval 0.89 to 1.08). Secondary outcomes showed step increases in days of renal support (difference in means 0.53 days, 95% confidence interval 0.28 to 0.79 days), advanced cardiovascular support (difference in means 0.23 days, 95% confidence interval 0.09 to 0.38 days) and advanced respiratory support (difference in means, 0.53 days, 95% CI 0.03 to 1.03 days) with a trend toward fewer bleeding episodes (odds ratio 0.90, 95% confidence interval 0.76 to 1.06) with transition to regional citrate anticoagulation. The micro-costing study indicated that regional citrate anticoagulation was more expensive and was associated with an estimated incremental net monetary loss (step change) of -£2376 (95% confidence interval -£3841 to -£911). The estimated likelihood of cost-effectiveness at 1 year was less than 0.1%.
Lack of patient-level treatment data means that the results represent average effects of changing to regional citrate anticoagulation in intensive care units. Administrative data are subject to variation in data quality over time, which may contribute to observed trends.
The introduction of regional citrate anticoagulation has not improved outcomes for patients and is likely to have substantially increased costs. This study demonstrates the feasibility of evaluating effects of changes in practice using routinely collected data.
(1) Prioritise other changes in clinical practice for evaluation and (2) methodological research to understand potential implications of trends in data quality.
This trial is registered as ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03545750.
This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in
; Vol. 26, No. 13. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.
The optimal target for systemic oxygenation in critically ill children is unknown. Liberal oxygenation is widely practiced, but has been associated with harm in paediatric patients. We aimed to ...evaluate whether conservative oxygenation would reduce duration of organ support or incidence of death compared to standard care.
Oxy-PICU was a pragmatic, multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial in 15 UK paediatric intensive care units (PICUs). Children admitted as an emergency, who were older than 38 weeks corrected gestational age and younger than 16 years receiving invasive ventilation and supplemental oxygen were randomly allocated in a 1:1 ratio via a concealed, central, web-based randomisation system to conservative peripheral oxygen saturations (SpO
88-92%) or liberal (SpO
>94%) targets. The primary outcome was the duration of organ support at 30 days following random allocation, a rank-based endpoint with death either on or before day 30 as the worst outcome (a score equating to 31 days of organ support), with survivors assigned a score between 1 and 30 depending on the number of calendar days of organ support received. The primary effect estimate was the probabilistic index, a value greater than 0·5 indicating more than 50% probability that conservative oxygenation is superior to liberal oxygenation for a randomly selected patient. All participants in whom consent was available were included in the intention-to-treat analysis. The completed study was registered with the ISRCTN registry (ISRCTN92103439).
Between Sept 1, 2020, and May 15, 2022, 2040 children were randomly allocated to conservative or liberal oxygenation groups. Consent was available for 1872 (92%) of 2040 children. The conservative oxygenation group comprised 939 children (528 57% of 927 were female and 399 43% of 927 were male) and the liberal oxygenation group included 933 children (511 56% of 920 were female and 409 45% of 920 were male). Duration of organ support or death in the first 30 days was significantly lower in the conservative oxygenation group (probabilistic index 0·53, 95% CI 0·50-0·55; p=0·04 Wilcoxon rank-sum test, adjusted odds ratio 0·84 95% CI 0·72-0·99). Prespecified adverse events were reported in 24 (3%) of 939 patients in the conservative oxygenation group and 36 (4%) of 933 patients in the liberal oxygenation group.
Among invasively ventilated children who were admitted as an emergency to a PICU receiving supplemental oxygen, a conservative oxygenation target resulted in a small, but significant, greater probability of a better outcome in terms of duration of organ support at 30 days or death when compared with a liberal oxygenation target. Widespread adoption of a conservative oxygenation saturation target (SpO
88-92%) could help improve outcomes and reduce costs for the sickest children admitted to PICUs.
UK National Institute for Health and Care Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.
ObjectiveWe aimed to evaluate an Integrated Diabetic Clinic within a Hospital Outpatient Department (IDC-OPD) in a complex humanitarian setting in North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo. Specific ...objectives were to: (1) analyse diabetes intermediate clinical and programmatic outcomes (blood pressure (BP)/glycaemic control, visit volume and frequency); (2) explore the association of key insecurity and related programmatic events with these outcomes; and (3) describe incremental IDC-OPD programme costs.DesignRetrospective cohort analysis of routine programmatic data collected from January 2014 to February 2017; analysis of programme costs for 2014/2015.SettingOutpatient diabetes programme in Mweso hospital, supported by Médecins sans Frontières, in North Kivu, Demographic Republic of Congo.ParticipantsDiabetes patients attending IDC-OPD.Outcome measuresIntermediate clinical and programmatic outcome trends (BP/ glycaemic control; visit volume/frequency); incremental programme costs.ResultsOf 243 diabetes patients, 44.6% were women, median age was 45 (IQR 32–56); 51.4% were classified type 2. On introduction of IDC-OPD, glucose control improved and patient volume and visit interval increased. During insecurity, control rates were initially maintained by a nurse-provided, scaled-back service, while patient volume and visit interval decreased. Following service suspension due to drug stock-outs, patients were less likely to achieve control, improving on service resumption. Total costs decreased 16% from 2014 (€36 573) to 2015 (€30 861). Annual cost per patient dropped from €475 in 2014 to €214 in 2015 due to reduced supply costs and increased patient numbers.ConclusionsIn a chronic conflict setting, we documented that control of diabetes intermediate outcomes was achievable during stable periods. During insecure periods, a simplified, nurse-led model maintained control rates until drug stock-outs occurred. Incremental per patient annual costs were lower than chronic HIV care costs in low-income settings. Future operational research should define a simplified diabetes care package including emergency preparedness.
Unselected multigene testing for all women with breast cancer (BC) identifies more cancer susceptibility gene (CSG) carriers who can benefit from precision prevention compared with family history ...(FH)/clinical-criteria-based guidelines. Very little CSG testing is undertaken in middle-income countries such as China, and its cost-effectiveness remains unaddressed. We aimed to estimate cost-effectiveness and population impact of multigene testing for all Chinese BC patients. Data from 8085 unselected BC patients recruited to a Peking University Cancer Hospital study were used for microsimulation modeling, comparing three strategies in the Chinese setting: all BC women undergo
genetic testing, only BC women fulfilling FH/clinical criteria undergo
testing, and no genetic testing. Prophylactic mastectomy and salpingo-oophorectomy would be adopted where appropriate. Societal and payer perspectives with a lifetime horizon along with sensitivity analyses were presented. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER): incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained is compared to the USD 10,260/QALY (one-times GDP per capita) willingness-to-pay threshold. BC incidence, ovarian cancer (OC) incidence, and related deaths were also estimated. FH/clinical-criteria-based
testing was ruled out on the principle of extensive dominance. Compared with no genetic testing, multigene testing for all BC patients had an ICER = USD 4506/QALY (societal perspective) and USD 7266/QALY (payer perspective), well below our threshold. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed unselected multigene testing remained cost-effective for 94.2%/86.6% of simulations from the societal and payer perspectives. One year's unselected multigene testing could prevent 7868 BC/OC cases and 5164 BC/OC deaths in China. Therefore, unselected multigene testing is extremely cost-effective and should be offered to all Chinese women with BC.
Clinical criteria/Family history-based BRCA testing misses a large proportion of BRCA carriers who can benefit from screening/prevention. We estimate the cost-effectiveness of population-based BRCA ...testing in general population women across different countries/health systems. A Markov model comparing the lifetime costs and effects of BRCA1/BRCA2 testing all general population women ≥30 years compared with clinical criteria/FH-based testing. Separate analyses are undertaken for the UK/USA/Netherlands (high-income countries/HIC), China/Brazil (upper–middle income countries/UMIC) and India (low–middle income countries/LMIC) using both health system/payer and societal perspectives. BRCA carriers undergo appropriate screening/prevention interventions to reduce breast cancer (BC) and ovarian cancer (OC) risk. Outcomes include OC, BC, and additional heart disease deaths and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER)/quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Probabilistic/one-way sensitivity analyses evaluate model uncertainty. For the base case, from a societal perspective, we found that population-based BRCA testing is cost-saving in HIC (UK-ICER = $−5639/QALY; USA-ICER = $−4018/QALY; Netherlands-ICER = $−11,433/QALY), and it appears cost-effective in UMIC (China-ICER = $18,066/QALY; Brazil-ICER = $13,579/QALY), but it is not cost-effective in LMIC (India-ICER = $23,031/QALY). From a payer perspective, population-based BRCA testing is highly cost-effective in HIC (UK-ICER = $21,191/QALY, USA-ICER = $16,552/QALY, Netherlands-ICER = $25,215/QALY), and it is cost-effective in UMIC (China-ICER = $23,485/QALY, Brazil−ICER = $20,995/QALY), but it is not cost-effective in LMIC (India-ICER = $32,217/QALY). BRCA testing costs below $172/test (ICER = $19,685/QALY), which makes it cost-effective (from a societal perspective) for LMIC/India. Population-based BRCA testing can prevent an additional 2319 to 2666 BC and 327 to 449 OC cases per million women than the current clinical strategy. Findings suggest that population-based BRCA testing for countries evaluated is extremely cost-effective across HIC/UMIC health systems, is cost-saving for HIC health systems from a societal perspective, and can prevent tens of thousands more BC/OC cases.
Many intensive care units (ICUs) have transitioned from systemic heparin anticoagulation (SHA) to regional citrate anticoagulation (RCA) for continuous kidney replacement therapy (CKRT). We evaluated ...the clinical and health economic impacts of ICU transition to RCA.
We surveyed all adult general ICUs in England and Wales to identify transition dates and conducted a micro-costing study in eight ICUs. We then conducted an interrupted time-series analysis of linked, routinely collected health records.
In 69,001 patients who received CKRT (8585 RCA, 60,416 SHA) in 181 ICUs between 2009 and 2017, transition to RCA was not associated with a change in 90-day mortality (adjusted odds ratio 0.98, 95% CI 0.89–1.08) but was associated with step-increases in duration of kidney support (0.53 days, 95% CI 0.28–0.79), advanced cardiovascular support (0.23 days, 95% CI 0.09–0.38) and ICU length of stay (0.86 days, 95% CI 0.24–1.49). The estimated one-year incremental net monetary benefit per patient was £ − 2376 (95% CI £ − 3841–£ − 911), with an estimated likelihood of cost-effectiveness of <0.1%.
Transition to RCA was associated with significant increases in healthcare resource use, without corresponding clinical benefit, and is highly unlikely to be cost-effective over a one-year time horizon.
•No change in 90-day mortality with transition to regional citrate anticoagulation.•Regional citrate anticoagulation increased intensive care stay and organ support.•Regional citrate anticoagulation costs significantly more than systemic heparin.
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