ABSTRACTBACKGROUNDAmong adults undergoing contemporary noncardiac surgery, little is known about the frequency and timing of death and the associations between perioperative complications and ...mortality. We aimed to establish the frequency and timing of death and its association with perioperative complications.METHODSWe conducted a prospective cohort study of patients aged 45 years and older who underwent inpatient noncardiac surgery at 28 centres in 14 countries. We monitored patients for complications until 30 days after surgery and determined the relation between these complications and 30-day mortality using a Cox proportional hazards model.RESULTSWe included 40 004 patients. Of those, 715 patients (1.8%) died within 30 days of surgery. Five deaths (0.7%) occurred in the operating room, 500 deaths (69.9%) occurred after surgery during the index admission to hospital and 210 deaths (29.4%) occurred after discharge from the hospital. Eight complications were independently associated with 30-day mortality. The 3 complications with the largest attributable fractions (AF; i.e., potential proportion of deaths attributable to these complications) were major bleeding (6238 patients, 15.6%; adjusted hazard ratio HR 2.6, 95% confidence interval CI 2.2–3.1; AF 17.0%); myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery MINS (5191 patients, 13.0%; adjusted HR 2.2, 95% CI 1.9–2.6; AF 15.9%); and sepsis (1783 patients, 4.5%; adjusted HR 5.6, 95% CI 4.6–6.8; AF 12.0%).INTERPRETATIONAmong adults undergoing noncardiac surgery, 99.3% of deaths occurred after the procedure and 44.9% of deaths were associated with 3 complications: major bleeding, MINS and sepsis. Given these findings, focusing on the prevention, early identification and management of these 3 complications holds promise for reducing perioperative mortality. Study registration:ClinicalTrials.gov, no. NCT00512109.
To characterise the association between socioeconomic deprivation and adverse outcomes in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF).
We prospectively observed 1802 patients with CHF and left ...ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤45%, recruited in four UK hospitals between 2006 and 2014. We assessed the association between deprivation defined by the UK Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) and: mode-specific mortality (mean follow-up 4 years); mode-specific hospitalisation; and the cumulative duration of hospitalisation (after 1 year).
A 45-point difference in mean IMD score was noted between patients residing in the least and most deprived quintiles of geographical regions. Deprivation was associated with age, sex and comorbidity, but not CHF symptoms, LVEF or prescribed drug therapy. IMD score was associated with the risk of age-sex adjusted all-cause mortality (6% higher risk per 10-unit increase in IMD score; 95% CI 2% to 10%; P=0.004), and non-cardiovascular mortality (9% higher risk per 10-unit increase in IMD score; 95% CI 3% to 16%; P=0.003), but not cardiovascular mortality. All-cause, but not heart failure-specific, hospitalisation was also more common in the most deprived patients. Overall, patients spent a cumulative 3.3 days in hospital during 1 year of follow-up, with IMD score being associated with the age-sex adjusted cumulative duration of hospitalisations (4% increase in duration per 10-unit increase in IMD score; 95% CI 3% to 6%; P<0.0005).
Socioeconomic deprivation in people with CHF is linked to increased risk of death and hospitalisation due to an excess of non-cardiovascular events.
Background Noncardiovascular death is increasingly common in people with chronic heart failure ( CHF ), yet its causes remain poorly characterized. We aimed to define the prevalence of sepsis death ...in people with CHF and to ascertain its risk marker profile. Methods and Results We conducted a prospective cohort study of 1802 patients with CHF and left ventricular ejection fraction ≤45% attending CHF clinics in 4 United Kingdom hospitals between 2006 and 2014. Mode of death was defined over a 10.3-year follow-up period (mean 4 years). Competing risk regression defined mode-specific hazard ratios for sepsis, other noncardiovascular, progressive heart failure, and sudden cardiac death in relation to established heart failure prognostic markers. Of 737 deaths, 173 (23.5%) were due to sepsis; respiratory tract infections accounted for 69.9% (n=121) of these events. Those who died from sepsis were older, had higher platelet counts, and had a higher prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease than those who died from other causes. Sepsis death was independently associated with older age (hazard ratio=1.05; 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.07), greater prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (2.43; 1.74-3.40), male sex (1.73; 1.16-2.60), lower log serum vitamin D (0.68; 0.49-0.95), and higher platelet count (1.002; 1.000-1.005) than nonsepsis death. Established heart failure prognostic markers exhibited different patterns of association with sepsis death, other noncardiovascular death, progressive heart failure death, and sudden cardiac death. Conclusions Sepsis is a major contributor to death in people with CHF and has a different risk marker profile from other modes of death, suggesting that it may be amenable to targeted preventative strategies.
To determine the prognostic relevance, clinical characteristics, and 30-day outcomes associated with myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery (MINS) in vascular surgical patients.
MINS has been ...independently associated with 30-day mortality after noncardiac surgery. The characteristics and prognostic importance of MINS in vascular surgery patients are poorly described.
This was an international prospective cohort study of 15,102 noncardiac surgery patients 45 years or older, of whom 502 patients underwent vascular surgery. All patients had fourth-generation plasma troponin T (TnT) concentrations measured during the first 3 postoperative days. MINS was defined as a TnT of 0.03 ng/mL of higher secondary to ischemia. The objectives of the present study were to determine (i) if MINS is prognostically important in vascular surgical patients, (ii) the clinical characteristics of vascular surgery patients with and without MINS, (iii) the 30-day outcomes for vascular surgery patients with and without MINS, and (iv) the proportion of MINS that probably would have gone undetected without routine troponin monitoring.
The incidence of MINS in the vascular surgery patients was 19.1% (95% confidence interval (CI), 15.7%-22.6%). 30-day all-cause mortality in the vascular cohort was 12.5% (95% CI 7.3%-20.6%) in patients with MINS compared with 1.5% (95% CI 0.7%-3.2%) in patients without MINS (P < 0.001). MINS was independently associated with 30-day mortality in vascular patients (odds ratio, 9.48; 95% CI, 3.46-25.96). The 30-day mortality was similar in MINS patients with (15.0%; 95% CI, 7.1-29.1) and without an ischemic feature (12.2%; 95% CI, 5.3-25.5, P = 0.76). The proportion of vascular surgery patients who suffered MINS without overt evidence of myocardial ischemia was 74.1% (95% CI, 63.6-82.4).
Approximately 1 in 5 patients experienced MINS after vascular surgery. MINS was independently associated with 30-day mortality. The majority of patients with MINS were asymptomatic and would have gone undetected without routine postoperative troponin measurement.
Estimating survival can aid care planning, but the use of absolute survival projections can be challenging for patients and clinicians to contextualise. We aimed to define how heart failure and its ...major comorbidities contribute to loss of actuarially predicted life expectancy.
We conducted an observational cohort study of 1794 adults with stable chronic heart failure and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction, recruited from cardiology outpatient departments of four UK hospitals. Data from an 11-year maximum (5-year median) follow-up period (999 deaths) were used to define how heart failure and its major comorbidities impact on survival, relative to an age-sex matched control UK population, using a relative survival framework.
After 10 years, mortality in the reference control population was 29%. In people with heart failure, this increased by an additional 37% (95% CI 34% to 40%), equating to an additional 2.2 years of lost life or a 2.4-fold (2.2-2.5) excess loss of life. This excess was greater in men than women (2.4 years (2.2-2.7) vs 1.6 years (1.2-2.0); p<0.001). In patients without major comorbidity, men still experienced excess loss of life, while women experienced less and were non-significantly different from the reference population (1 year (0.6-1.5) vs 0.4 years (-0.3 to 1); p<0.001). Accrual of comorbidity was associated with substantial increases in excess lost life, particularly for diabetes, chronic kidney and lung disease.
Comorbidity accounts for the majority of lost life expectancy in people with heart failure. Women, but not men, without comorbidity experience survival close to reference controls.
Diabetes increases mortality in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction. Studies have questioned the safety of β-adrenoceptor blockers (β-blockers) in ...some patients with diabetes and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction. We examined whether β-blockers and ACE inhibitors (ACEIs) are associated with differential effects on mortality in CHF patients with and without diabetes.
We conducted a prospective cohort study of 1,797 patients with CHF recruited between 2006 and 2014, with mean follow-up of 4 years. β-Blocker dose was expressed as the equivalent dose of bisoprolol (mg/day) and ACEI dose as the equivalent dose of ramipril (mg/day). Cox regression analysis was used to examine the interaction between diabetes and drug dose on all-cause mortality.
Patients with diabetes were prescribed larger doses of β-blockers and ACEIs than were patients without diabetes. Increasing β-blocker dose was associated with lower mortality in patients with diabetes (8.9% per mg/day; 95% CI 5-12.6) and without diabetes (3.5% per mg/day; 95% CI 0.7-6.3), although the effect was larger in people with diabetes (interaction
= 0.027). Increasing ACEI dose was associated with lower mortality in patients with diabetes (5.9% per mg/day; 95% CI 2.5-9.2) and without diabetes (5.1% per mg/day; 95% CI 2.6-7.6), with similar effect size in these groups (interaction
= 0.76).
Increasing β-blocker dose is associated with a greater prognostic advantage in CHF patients with diabetes than in CHF patients without diabetes.
Abstract
Background
Myocardial injury after non-cardiac surgery (MINS), based on measurement of troponin T, is associated with perioperative major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). We therefore ...determined the high-sensitivity troponin I (hsTnI) thresholds associated with 30 day MACE after non-cardiac surgery.
Methods
We performed a nested biobank cohort study of 4553 patients from the Vascular Events in Non-Cardiac Surgery Patients Cohort Evaluation (VISION) Study. We measured hsTnI (ADVIA Centaur® hsTnI assay) on postoperative days 1 to 3 in patients ≥45 years undergoing non-cardiac surgery. An iterative Cox proportional hazard model determined peak postoperative hsTnI thresholds independently associated with MACE (i.e., death, myocardial infarction occurring on postoperative day 4 or after, non-fatal cardiac arrest, or congestive heart failure) within 30 days after surgery.
Results
MACE occurred in 89/4545 (2.0%) patients. Peak hsTnI values of <75 ng/L, 75 ng/L to <1000 ng/L, and ≥1000 ng/L were associated with 1.2% (95% CI, 0.9–1.6), 7.1% (95% CI, 4.8–10.5), and 25.9% (95% CI, 16.3–38.4) MACE, respectively. Compared to peak hsTnI <75 ng/L, values 75 ng/L to <1000 ng/L and ≥1000 ng/L were associated with adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) of 4.53 (95% CI, 2.75–7.48) and 16.17 (95% CI, 8.70–30.07), respectively. MACE was observed in 9% of patients with peak hsTnI ≥75 ng/L vs 1% in patients with peak hsTnI <75 ng/L (aHR 5.76; 95% CI, 3.64–9.11). A peak hsTnI ≥75 ng/L was associated with MACE in the presence (aHR 9.35; 95% CI, 5.28–16.55) or absence (aHR 3.99; 95% CI, 2.19–7.25) of ischemic features of myocardial injury.
Conclusion
A peak postoperative hsTnI ≥75 ng/L was associated with >5-fold increase in the risk of 30 days MACE compared to levels <75 ng/L. This threshold could be used for MINS diagnosis when the ADVIA Centaur hsTnI assay is used.
Clinicaltrials.gov Registration Number: NCT00512109.
Summary
Pulmonary hypertension is becoming a recognized complication of the hereditary and acquired haemolytic anaemias, associated with a poor prognosis. Recently we reported that patients with ...paroxysmal nocturnal haemoglobinuria (PNH) have high levels of N‐terminal pro‐brain natriuretic peptide (NT‐proBNP), a biomarker associated with both right and left ventricular dysfunction and cardiac dysfunction. In the current study we evaluated a cohort of patients (N = 29) with haemolytic PNH for elevated pulmonary artery systolic pressure and cardiac function by Doppler‐echocardiography. Of the 29 patients, eight were further studied using cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), as well as two additional patients (number of patients studied using cardiac MRI = 10). Plasma from the first cohort (N = 29) demonstrated intravascular haemolysis associated with a 12‐fold increase in median nitric oxide (NO) consumption when compared with healthy volunteers (P < 0·001). Doppler echocardiography demonstrated normal left ventricular function and elevated pulmonary artery systolic pressure in 41% of patients. Cardiac MRI from the second cohort (N = 10) demonstrated depressed right ventricular function in 80% of PNH patients tested, and 60% had findings suggestive of subclinical small pulmonary emboli. Together, these data suggest a high prevalence of haemolysis‐associated NO scavenging, Doppler‐estimated systolic pulmonary hypertension, and depressed right ventricular function in patients with PNH.
Background:
It is unclear whether diabetes mellitus (DM) is an adverse prognostic factor in chronic heart failure (CHF) of ischaemic and non-ischaemic aetiology managed with contemporary ...evidence-based care.
Methods:
In total, 1091 outpatients with CHF with reduced ejection fraction were prospectively observed for a mean of 960 days. Total and cardiovascular mortality was quantified after accounting for potential confounders.
Results:
In total, 25.7% of patients had DM; this group was more likely to have CHF of ischaemic aetiology and was more symptomatic. Patients with DM received comparable medical- and device-based therapies, except for greater doses of loop diuretic. DM was associated with approximately doubled crude and adjusted risk of total and cardiovascular mortality. The association of diabetes with these outcomes in patients with ischaemic and non-ischaemic cardiomyopathies was of similar magnitude.
Conclusions:
In spite of advances in the management of CHF, DM remains a major adverse prognostic feature, irrespective of ischaemic/non-ischaemic aetiology.
Risk assessment is central to the management of acute coronary syndromes. Often, however, assessment is not complete until the troponin concentration is available. Using 2 multicenter prospective ...observational studies (Evaluation of Methods and Management of Acute Coronary Events EMMACE 2, test cohort, 1,843 patients; and EMMACE-1, validation cohort, 550 patients) of unselected patients with acute coronary syndromes, a point-of-admission risk stratification tool using frontal QRS-T angle derived from automated measurements and age for the prediction of 30-day and 2-year mortality was evaluated. Two-year mortality was lowest in patients with frontal QRS-T angles <38° and highest in patients with frontal QRS-T angles >104° (44.7% vs 14.8%, p <0.001). Increasing frontal QRS-T angle–age risk (FAAR) scores were associated with increasing 30-day and 2-year mortality (for 2-year mortality, score 0 = 3.7%, score 4 = 57%; p <0.001). The FAAR score was a good discriminator of mortality (C statistics 0.74 95% confidence interval 0.71 to 0.78 at 30 days and 0.77 95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.79 at 2 years), maintained its performance in the EMMACE-1 cohort at 30 days (C statistics 0.76 (95% confidence interval 0.71 to 0.8 at 30 days and 0.79 (95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.83 at 2 years), in men and women, in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction and non–ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, and compared favorably with the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score. The integrated discrimination improvement (age to FAAR score at 30 days and at 2 years in EMMACE-1 and EMMACE-2) was p <0.001. In conclusion, the FAAR score is a point-of-admission risk tool that predicts 30-day and 2-year mortality from 2 variables across a spectrum of patients with acute coronary syndromes. It does not require the results of biomarker assays or rely on the subjective interpretation of electrocardiograms.
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