Recent theoretical and empirical work suggests that coordinating offspring provisioning plays a significant role in stabilizing cooperative care systems, with benefits to developing young. However, a ...warming and increasingly extreme climate might be expected to make contributions to, and so coordination of, care more challenging, particularly in cooperative breeding systems comprising multiple carers of varying age and pairwise relatedness. Here we investigated the interplay between breeding phenology, meteorological conditions and carer number on the individual rates and group-level coordination of nestling care in the cooperatively breeding chestnut-crowned babbler (Pomatostomus ruficeps) in outback south-eastern Australia. From 3 months since the last meaningful rain event, dominant male breeders and—to a lesser extent—related helpers showed reductions in their provisioning rates and increases in their day-to-day variation. Further, on days with high mean wind speed, dominant males contributed less and helpers were less likely to visit the nest on such days. Helpers also showed reduced visitation rates on days with high mean temperature. Provisioning rates were independent of the number of carers, and increasing numbers of carers failed to mitigate the detrimental effects of challenging environment on patterns of provisioning. Those helpers that were unrelated to broods often failed to help on a given day and tended to help at a low rate when they did contribute, with socio-environmental predictors having limited explanatory power. Given the marked variation in individual contributions to offspring care and the variable explanatory power of the socio-environmental predictors tested, babblers unsurprisingly had low levels of nest visitation synchrony. Large groups visited the nest more asynchronously on days of high mean temperature, suggesting that meteorological impacts on individual provisioning have consequences for group-level coordination. Our study has implications for the consequences of climate change on patterns of provisioning, the minimal role of group size in buffering against these challenges and the stabilization of cooperative care.
This study reports a new and significantly enhanced analysis of US flood hazard at 30 m spatial resolution. Specific improvements include updated hydrography data, new methods to determine channel ...depth, more rigorous flood frequency analysis, output downscaling to property tract level, and inclusion of the impact of local interventions in the flooding system. For the first time, we consider pluvial, fluvial, and coastal flood hazards within the same framework and provide projections for both current (rather than historic average) conditions and for future time periods centered on 2035 and 2050 under the RCP4.5 emissions pathway. Validation against high‐quality local models and the entire catalog of FEMA 1% annual probability flood maps yielded Critical Success Index values in the range 0.69–0.82. Significant improvements over a previous pluvial/fluvial model version are shown for high‐frequency events and coastal zones, along with minor improvements in areas where model performance was already good. The result is the first comprehensive and consistent national‐scale analysis of flood hazard for the conterminous US for both current and future conditions. Even though we consider a stabilization emissions scenario and a near‐future time horizon, we project clear patterns of changing flood hazard (3σ changes in 100 years inundated area of −3.8 to +16% at 1° scale), that are significant when considered as a proportion of the land area where human use is possible or in terms of the currently protected land area where the standard of flood defense protection may become compromised by this time.
Plain Language Summary
We develop a method to estimate past, present, and future flood risk for all properties in the conterminous United States whether affected by river, coastal or rainfall flooding. The analysis accounts for variability within environmental factors including changes in sea level rise, hurricane intensity and landfall locations, precipitation patterns, and river discharge. We show that even for a conservative climate change trajectory we can expect locally significant changes in the land area at risk from floods by 2050, and by this time defenses protecting 2,200 km2 of land may be compromised. The complete dataset has been made available via a website (https://floodfactor.com/) created by the First Street Foundation in order to increase public awareness of the threat posed by flooding to safety and livelihoods.
Key Points
First complete high‐resolution flood hazard analysis of conterminous US flood risk from all major sources (fluvial, pluvial, and coastal)
In validation tests the model achieved Critical Success Index scores of 0.69–0.82, similar to many local custom‐built 2D models
By 2050, flood hazard increases for the Eastern seaboard and Western states, but decreases or changes little for the center and South‐West
Proposed and actual reforms to the European Union (EU) Stability and Growth Pact commonly retain the Pact's deficit and debt targets. The American experience with similar macrobudgetary rules ...suggests that deficit targets may actually act as an incentive for political leaders to engage in noncompliant behavior. If targets were revised to budgetary objectives that politicians could achieve more easily and claim credit for accomplishing, compliance with the new macrobudgetary rules might be increased.
A relative Raman scattering cross-section has been experimentally determined for diamond and non-diamond carbon spectra excited by argon ion 514.5 nm radiation. This has been used to arrive at a ...semi-quantitative evaluation of diamond film quality. The results are compared with those obtained using helium-neon excitation at 633 nm.
It has long been recognised that the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy may be an important determinant of the outcomes of both policies. To provide some insights into how this ...interaction and macroeconomic outcomes can be improved, a symposium was held at the 2010 Australian Conference of Economists. This piece summarises the discussion, with the full papers by Michal Franta, Jan Libich and Petr Stehlík; Don Brash; Carl Walsh; Jacopo Cimadomo; Stephen Kirchner; and Eric Leeper and Todd Walker appearing later in this issue.
Fiscal Neglect in a Monetary Union Libich, Jan; Savage, James; Stehlík, Petr
Economic papers (Economic Society of Australia),
September 2010, Letnik:
29, Številka:
3
Journal Article
Recenzirano
The Duchy of Grand Fenwick, having satisfied all requirements of Eurozone accession, recently became its newest member. As the small dukedom has discontinued its use of the Fenwick Pound, its ...independent central bank has had its tasks relegated to the monitoring of the twelve banks that exist there, and no longer the exercising of monetary policy. Before joining the Eurozone, the Duchy's central bank had a hierarchical mandate, targeting low inflation, and subject to that the stability of unemployment. With a recent groundswell of popular opinion against the ruler, Duchess Gloriana XII, her government has sought to placate its subjects with free dental care, an increased state pension and subsidised wine. It can do this, now, in relatively safe knowledge the European Central Bank will not punish the Duchy's fiscal recklessness with higher interest rates – unlike the Duchy's independent central bank in the past.
Nelson Polsby as Mentor Savage, James D
The forum : a journal of applied research in contemporary politics,
4/2007, Letnik:
5, Številka:
1
Journal Article
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