Through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) studies, headache has emerged as a major global public health concern. We aimed to use data from the GBD 2016 study to provide ...new estimates for prevalence and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for migraine and tension-type headache and to present the methods and results in an accessible way for clinicians and researchers of headache disorders.
Data were derived from population-based cross-sectional surveys on migraine and tension-type headache. Prevalence for each sex and 5-year age group interval (ie, age 5 years to ≥95 years) at different time points from 1990 and 2016 in all countries and GBD regions were estimated using a Bayesian meta-regression model. Disease burden measured in YLDs was calculated from prevalence and average time spent with headache multiplied by disability weights (a measure of the relative severity of the disabling consequence of a disease). The burden stemming from medication overuse headache, which was included in earlier iterations of GBD as a separate cause, was subsumed as a sequela of either migraine or tension-type headache. Because no deaths were assigned to headaches as the underlying cause, YLDs equate to disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We also analysed results on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility.
Almost three billion individuals were estimated to have a migraine or tension-type headache in 2016: 1·89 billion (95% uncertainty interval UI 1·71–2·10) with tension-type headache and 1·04 billion (95% UI 1·00–1·09) with migraine. However, because migraine had a much higher disability weight than tension-type headache, migraine caused 45·1 million (95% UI 29·0–62·8) and tension-type headache only 7·2 million (95% UI 4·6–10·5) YLDs globally in 2016. The headaches were most burdensome in women between ages 15 and 49 years, with migraine causing 20·3 million (95% UI 12·9–28·5) and tension-type headache 2·9 million (95% UI 1·8–4·2) YLDs in 2016, which was 11·2% of all YLDs in this age group and sex. Age-standardised DALYs for each headache type showed a small increase as SDI increased.
Although current estimates are based on limited data, our study shows that headache disorders, and migraine in particular, are important causes of disability worldwide, and deserve greater attention in health policy debates and research resource allocation. Future iterations of this study, based on sources from additional countries and with less methodological heterogeneity, should help to provide stronger evidence of the need for action.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Summary Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of diarrhoeal diseases. This study assesses cases, ...deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 25 years and informs the changing picture of diarrhoeal disease worldwide. Methods We estimated diarrhoeal mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm), a modelling platform shared across most causes of death in the GBD 2015 study. We modelled diarrhoeal morbidity, including incidence and prevalence, using a meta-regression platform called DisMod-MR. We estimated aetiologies for diarrhoeal diseases using a counterfactual approach that incorporates the aetiology-specific risk of diarrhoeal disease and the prevalence of the aetiology in diarrhoea episodes. We used the Socio-demographic Index, a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility, to assess trends in diarrhoeal mortality. The two leading risk factors for diarrhoea—childhood malnutrition and unsafe water, sanitation, and hygiene—were used in a decomposition analysis to establish the relative contribution of changes in diarrhoea disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Findings Globally, in 2015, we estimate that diarrhoea was a leading cause of death among all ages (1·31 million deaths, 95% uncertainty interval 95% UI 1·23 million to 1·39 million), as well as a leading cause of DALYs because of its disproportionate impact on young children (71·59 million DALYs, 66·44 million to 77·21 million). Diarrhoea was a common cause of death among children under 5 years old (499 000 deaths, 95% UI 447 000–558 000). The number of deaths due to diarrhoea decreased by an estimated 20·8% (95% UI 15·4–26·1) from 2005 to 2015. Rotavirus was the leading cause of diarrhoea deaths (199 000, 95% UI 165 000–241 000), followed by Shigella spp (164 300, 85 000–278 700) and Salmonella spp (90 300, 95% UI 34 100–183 100). Among children under 5 years old, the three aetiologies responsible for the most deaths were rotavirus, Cryptosporidium spp, and Shigella spp. Improvements in safe water and sanitation have decreased diarrhoeal DALYs by 13·4%, and reductions in childhood undernutrition have decreased diarrhoeal DALYs by 10·0% between 2005 and 2015. Interpretation At the global level, deaths due to diarrhoeal diseases have decreased substantially in the past 25 years, although progress has been faster in some countries than others. Diarrhoea remains a largely preventable disease and cause of death, and continued efforts to improve access to safe water, sanitation, and childhood nutrition will be important in reducing the global burden of diarrhoea. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Efforts to quantify the global burden of enteric fever are valuable for understanding the health lost and the large-scale spatial distribution of the disease. We present the estimates of typhoid and ...paratyphoid fever burden from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, and the approach taken to produce them.
For this systematic analysis we broke down the relative contributions of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers by country, year, and age, and analysed trends in incidence and mortality. We modelled the combined incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers and split these total cases proportionally between typhoid and paratyphoid fevers using aetiological proportion models. We estimated deaths using vital registration data for countries with sufficiently high data completeness and using a natural history approach for other locations. We also estimated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for typhoid and paratyphoid fevers.
Globally, 14·3 million (95% uncertainty interval UI 12·5–16·3) cases of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers occurred in 2017, a 44·6% (42·2–47·0) decline from 25·9 million (22·0–29·9) in 1990. Age-standardised incidence rates declined by 54·9% (53·4–56·5), from 439·2 (376·7–507·7) per 100 000 person-years in 1990, to 197·8 (172·0–226·2) per 100 000 person-years in 2017. In 2017, Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi caused 76·3% (71·8–80·5) of cases of enteric fever. We estimated a global case fatality of 0·95% (0·54–1·53) in 2017, with higher case fatality estimates among children and older adults, and among those living in lower-income countries. We therefore estimated 135·9 thousand (76·9–218·9) deaths from typhoid and paratyphoid fever globally in 2017, a 41·0% (33·6–48·3) decline from 230·5 thousand (131·2–372·6) in 1990. Overall, typhoid and paratyphoid fevers were responsible for 9·8 million (5·6–15·8) DALYs in 2017, down 43·0% (35·5–50·6) from 17·2 million (9·9–27·8) DALYs in 1990.
Despite notable progress, typhoid and paratyphoid fevers remain major causes of disability and death, with billions of people likely to be exposed to the pathogens. Although improvements in water and sanitation remain essential, increased vaccine use (including with typhoid conjugate vaccines that are effective in infants and young children and protective for longer periods) and improved data and surveillance to inform vaccine rollout are likely to drive the greatest improvements in the global burden of the disease.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
To explore the association between serum uric acid (SUA) level and the risk of cardiovascular complications and all-cause mortality rates among individuals with type 2 diabetes.
Web of Science and ...PubMed database were searched for studies reported associations between SUA level and cardiovascular complications and all-cause mortality among individuals with type 2 diabetes. Hazard ratios (HRs) were independently extracted by two investigators and synthesized through meta-analysis across selected studies.
6 (n = 11,750 patients), 4 (n = 3044 patients) and 2 studies (n = 7792 patients) were identified reporting associations between SUA level and all-cause mortality, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke respectively. HR for all-cause mortality, CHD, and stroke per 59 μmol/l increase was 1.06 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.09), 1.09 (95% CI: 0.94, 1.26) and 1.19 (95% CI: 1.08, 1.31), respectively.
Overall, the SUA level was associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality and stroke. We found no significant association between SUA level and CHD among type 2 diabetes population.
Metformin is the first-line oral hypoglycemic agent for type 2 diabetes mellitus recommended by international guidelines. However, little information exists comparing it with acarbose which is also ...commonly used in China. This study expanded knowledge by combining direct and indirect evidence to ascertain the glucose lowering effects of both drugs.
PubMed (1980- December 2013) and China National Knowledge Infrastructure databases (1994-January 2014) were systematically searched for eligible randomized controlled trials from Chinese and English literatures. Meta-analysis was conducted to estimate the glucose lowering effects of metformin vs. acarbose, or either of them vs. common comparators (placebo or sulphonylureas), using random- and fixed-effect models. Bucher method with indirect treatment comparison calculator was applied to convert the summary estimates from the meta-analyses into weighted-mean-difference (WMD) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to represent the comparative efficacy between metformin and acarbose.
A total of 75 studies were included in the analysis. In direct comparison (8 trials), metformin reduced glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) by 0.06% more than acarbose, with no significant difference (WMD,-0.06%; 95% CI, -0.32% to 0.20%). In indirect comparisons (67 trials), by using placebo and sulphonylureas as common comparators, metformin achieved significant HbA1c reduction than acarbose, by -0.38% (WMD,-0.38%, 95% CI, -0.736% to -0.024%) and -0.34% (WMD, -0.34%, 95% CI, -0.651% to -0.029%) respectively.
The glucose lowering effects of metformin monotherapy and acarbose monotherapy are the same by direct comparison, while metformin is a little better by indirect comparison. This implies that the effect of metformin is at least as good as acarbose's.
Evidence-based decision on drug list or formulary has been applied worldwide. Although the importance of scientific evidence was emphasized, the decision-making procedures for including medicines ...into the national reimbursement drug list were often challenged by their process opacity and relying on subjective expert opinion. This study aimed to explore and assess the evidence for the effectiveness of anti-hypertensive medicines included on the Chinese National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL), and to provide recommendations for further improvement.
Three international evidence-based guidelines were selected to serve as reference criteria. The antihypertensive medicines included in NRDL of Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance (UEBMI) were compared with recommended drugs in three international guidelines. Medicines recommended by at least two guidelines were considered to have sound evidence support for the effectiveness. Otherwise, published literature with high evidence grade, namely systematic review, meta-analysis and randomized controlled trial (RCT), were searched for further assessment. Medicines reported as fairly good effectiveness by literature with high evidence grade can be also considered having sound evidence for the effectiveness. Methodological quality of systematic review or meta-analysis was evaluated by AMSTAR scale and PRISMA statement. Literature quality of RCTs was assessed by Jadad scale.
For the 97 antihypertensive medicines in NRDL, there were sound evidence supports for the effectiveness of 56 kinds of medicines. Specifically, twenty-six of them were supported by international evidence-based guidelines, twenty were supported by systematic review or meta-analysis and the other ten by RCT. However, for the rest 41 medicines, there is insufficient evidence for their effectiveness.
Some antihypertensive medicines in NRDL did not have sufficient evidence for their effectiveness. Further evaluation and revision were required. It is also recommended to standardize decision-making procedures for inclusion of medicines, set up high quality evidence database to timely provide sound evidence, and so on.
Abstract Purpose This study aimed to determine the association between colchicine use and the incidence of diabetes in a cohort of patients with gout. Methods This is a retrospective study of 27,876 ...adults with gout identified via the Veterans Integrated Services Network 16 data warehouse. Patients had up to 11 years of follow-up (January 1999 through December 2010). The final study sample consisted of 1046 pairs of 1:1 propensity score–matched patients from the colchicine treated and control cohorts. Time to first diabetes development since the first gout diagnosis was modeled. Results After the propensity score matching, the 12-month baseline variables (eg, age, sex, race, index year, body mass index, serum uric acid, antigout drug use, and health care use) were comparable between the matched cohorts ( P > 0.05 for all). Among the 1046 matched pairs, 234 patients who had taken colchicine and 224 patients who had never taken colchicine developed diabetes; the incidence rates were 38.95 and 39.02 per 1000 patient-years, respectively. In Poisson and Cox proportional hazards regression, the risk of incident diabetes was reduced with increased duration of colchicine use, but the difference was not statistically significant ( P > 0.05). In a time-varying Cox proportional hazards model, the hazard ratio for incident diabetes among patients who had taken colchicine was 0.877 (95% CI, 0.662–1.163; P = 0.362) compared with those who had not taken colchicine. Conclusion This study suggests a possible duration- or dose-related association between colchicine use and reduced risk of diabetes in adults with gout even though the risk reduction was not significant. Further studies are needed to confirm findings from this study.
Institutional delivery is one of the key and proven strategies to reduce maternal deaths. Since the 1990s, the government of India has made substantial investment on maternal care to reduce the huge ...burden of maternal deaths in the country. However, despite the effort access to institutional delivery in India remains below the global average. In addition, even in places where health investments have been comparable, inter- and intra-state difference in access to maternal care services remain wide and substantial. This raises a fundamental question on whether the sub-national units themselves differ in terms of the efficiency with which they use available resources, and if so, why?
Data obtained from round 3 of the country's District Level Health and Facility Survey was analyzed to measure the level and determinants of inefficiency of institutional delivery in the country. Analysis was conducted using spatial stochastic frontier models that correct for heterogeneity and spatial interactions between sub-national units.
Inefficiency differences in maternal care services between and within states are substantial. The top one third of districts in the country has a mean efficiency score of 90 per cent or more, while the bottom 10 per cent of districts exhibit mean inefficiency score of as high as over 75 per cent or more. Overall mean inefficiency is about 30 per cent. The result also reveals the existence of both heterogeneity and spatial correlation in institutional delivery in the country.
Given the high level of inefficiency in the system, further progress in improving coverage of institutional delivery in the country should focus both on improving the efficiency of resource utilization--especially where inefficiency levels are extremely high--and on bringing new resources in to the system. The additional investment should specifically focus on those parts of the country where coverage rates are still low but efficiency levels are already at a high level. In addition, given that inefficiency was also associated inversely with literacy and urbanization and positively related with proportion of households belonging to poor households, investment in these areas can also improve coverage of institutional delivery in the country.
Summary In collaboration with WHO, IMMUNIZATIONbasics analyzed 126 documents from the global grey literature to identify reasons why eligible children had incomplete or no vaccinations. The main ...reasons for under-vaccination were related to immunization services and to parental knowledge and attitudes. The most frequently cited factors were: access to services, health staff attitudes and practices, reliability of services, false contraindications, parents’ practical knowledge of vaccination, fear of side effects, conflicting priorities and parental beliefs. Some family demographic characteristics were strong, but underlying, risk factors for under-vaccination. Studies must be well designed to capture a complete picture of the simultaneous causes of under-vaccination and to avoid biased results. Although the grey literature contains studies of varying quality, it includes many well-designed studies. Every immunization program should strive to provide quality services that are accessible, convenient, reliable, friendly, affordable and acceptable, and should solicit feedback from families and community leaders. Every program should monitor missed and under-vaccinated children and assess and address the causes. Although global reviews, such as this one, can play a useful role in identifying key questions for local study, local enquiry and follow-up remain essential.
The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of diarrhoea in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and ...aetiologies in 1990–2016 and assesses how the burden of diarrhoea has changed in people of all ages.
We modelled diarrhoea mortality with a Bayesian hierarchical modelling platform that evaluates a wide range of covariates and model types on the basis of vital registration and verbal autopsy data. We modelled diarrhoea incidence with a compartmental meta-regression tool that enforces an association between incidence and prevalence, and relies on scientific literature, population representative surveys, and health-care data. Diarrhoea deaths and episodes were attributed to 13 pathogens by use of a counterfactual population attributable fraction approach. Diarrhoea risk factors are also based on counterfactual estimates of risk exposure and the association between the risk and diarrhoea. Each modelled estimate accounted for uncertainty.
In 2016, diarrhoea was the eighth leading cause of death among all ages (1 655 944 deaths, 95% uncertainty interval UI 1 244 073–2 366 552) and the fifth leading cause of death among children younger than 5 years (446 000 deaths, 390 894–504 613). Rotavirus was the leading aetiology for diarrhoea mortality among children younger than 5 years (128 515 deaths, 105 138–155 133) and among all ages (228 047 deaths, 183 526–292 737). Childhood wasting (low weight-for-height score), unsafe water, and unsafe sanitation were the leading risk factors for diarrhoea, responsible for 80·4% (95% UI 68·2–85·0), 72·1% (34·0–91·4), and 56·4% (49·3–62·7) of diarrhoea deaths in children younger than 5 years, respectively. Prevention of wasting in 1762 children (95% UI 1521–2170) could avert one death from diarrhoea.
Substantial progress has been made globally in reducing the burden of diarrhoeal diseases, driven by decreases in several primary risk factors. However, this reduction has not been equal across locations, and burden among adults older than 70 years requires attention.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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