This paper discusses the impact of air quality and climate policies on global mercury emissions in the time horizon up to 2050. Evolution of mercury emissions is based on projections of energy ...consumption for a scenario without any global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, and for a 2 °C climate policy scenario, which assumes internationally coordinated action to mitigate climate change. The assessment takes into account current air quality legislation in each country, as well as provides estimates of maximum feasible reductions in mercury through 2050. Results indicate significant scope for co-benefits of climate policies for mercury emissions. Atmospheric releases of mercury from anthropogenic sources under the global climate mitigation regime are reduced in 2050 by 45% when compared to the case without climate measures. Around one third of world-wide co-benefits for mercury emissions by 2050 occur in China. An annual Hg-abatement of about 800 tons is estimated for the coal combustion in power sector if the current air pollution legislation and climate policies are adopted in parallel.
•Scenarios for global Hg-emissions through 2050 are developed within the GAINS model.•Air pollution policies are insufficient to stabilize future global mercury emissions.•Co-benefits for Hg from parallel control of air quality and GHGs are substantial.•Maximum feasible reduction strategy brings future Hg emissions below today's levels.•Elemental gaseous mercury dominates other Hg-forms across scenarios and time periods.
NO2 concentrations at the street level are a major concern for urban air quality in Europe and have been regulated under the EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution. Despite the legal requirements, ...limit values are exceeded at many monitoring stations with little or no improvement in recent years. In order to assess the effects of future emission control regulations on roadside NO2 concentrations, a downscaling module has been implemented in the GAINS integrated assessment model. The module follows a hybrid approach based on atmospheric dispersion calculations and observations from the AirBase European air quality database that are used to estimate site-specific parameters. Pollutant concentrations at every monitoring site with sufficient data coverage are disaggregated into contributions from regional background, urban increment, and local roadside increment. The future evolution of each contribution is assessed with a model of the appropriate scale: 28 × 28 km grid based on the EMEP Model for the regional background, 7 × 7 km urban increment based on the CHIMERE Chemistry Transport Model, and a chemical box model for the roadside increment. Thus, different emission scenarios and control options for long-range transport as well as regional and local emissions can be analysed. Observed concentrations and historical trends are well captured, in particular the differing NO2 and total NOx = NO + NO2 trends. Altogether, more than 1950 air quality monitoring stations in the EU are covered by the model, including more than 400 traffic stations and 70% of the critical stations. Together with its well-established bottom-up emission and dispersion calculation scheme, GAINS is thus able to bridge the scales from European-wide policies to impacts in street canyons. As an application of the model, we assess the evolution of attainment of NO2 limit values under current legislation until 2030. Strong improvements are expected with the introduction of the Euro 6 emission standard for light duty vehicles; however, for some major European cities, further measures may be required, in particular if aiming to achieve compliance at an earlier time.
Despite increasing emission controls, particulate matter (PM) has remained a critical issue for European air quality in recent years. The various sources of PM, both from primary particulate ...emissions as well as secondary formation from precursor gases, make this a complex problem to tackle. In order to allow for credible predictions of future concentrations under policy assumptions, a modelling approach is needed that considers all chemical processes and spatial dimensions involved, from long-range transport of pollution to local emissions in street canyons. Here we describe a modelling scheme which has been implemented in the GAINS integrated assessment model to assess compliance with PM10 (PM with aerodynamic diameter < 10 mu m) limit values at individual air quality monitoring stations reporting to the Air-Base database. The modelling approach relies on a combination of bottom up modelling of emissions, simplified atmospheric chemistry and dispersion calculations, and a traffic increment calculation wherever applicable. At each monitoring station fulfilling a few data coverage criteria, measured concentrations in the base year 2009 are explained to the extent possible and then modelled for the past and future. More than 1850 monitoring stations are covered, including more than 300 traffic stations and 80% of the stations which exceeded the EU air quality limit values in 2009. As a validation, we compare modelled trends in the period 2000-2008 to observations, which are well reproduced. The modelling scheme is applied here to quantify explicitly source contributions to ambient concentrations at several critical monitoring stations, displaying the differences in spatial origin and chemical composition of urban roadside PM10 across Europe. Furthermore, we analyse the predicted evolution of PM10 concentrations in the European Union until 2030 under different policy scenarios. Significant improvements in ambient PM10 concentrations are expected assuming successful implementation of already agreed legislation; however, these will not be large enough to ensure attainment of PM10 limit values in hot spot locations such as Southern Poland and major European cities. Remaining issues are largely eliminated in a scenario applying the best available emission control technologies to the maximal technically feasible extent.
In recent years several European air pollution policies have been based on a cost-effectiveness approach. In the European Union, the European Commission starts using the multi-pollutant, multi-effect ...GAINS (Greenhouse Gas Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) model to identify cost-effective National Emission Ceilings and specific emission control measures for each Member State to reach these targets. In this paper, we apply the GAINS methodology to the case of Italy with 20 subnational regions. We present regional results for different approaches to environmental target setting for PM2.5 pollution in the year 2030. We have obtained these results using optimization techniques consistent with those of GAINS-Europe, but at a higher resolution. Our results show that an overall health-impact oriented approach is more cost-effective than setting a nation-wide limit value on ambient air quality, such as the one set for the year 2030 by the European Directive on ambient air quality and cleaner air for Europe. The health-impact oriented approach implies additional emission control costs of 153 million €/yr on top of the baseline costs, compared to 322 million €/yr for attaining the nation-wide air quality limit. We provide insights into the distribution of costs and benefits for regions within Italy and identify the main beneficiaries of a health-impact approach over a limit-value approach.
•The GAINS cost-optimization methodology has been applied to the Italian territory.•Different environmental target setting approaches have been compared.•A regulatory approach focusing on health impacts rather than on air quality is more cost-effective.•Distribution of costs and benefits for the 20 Italian regions are presented.
This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of historical (1990–2010) global anthropogenic particulate matter (PM) emissions including the consistent and harmonized calculation of mass-based size ...distribution (PM1, PM2. 5, PM10), as well as primary carbonaceous aerosols including black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC). The estimates were developed with the integrated assessment model GAINS, where source- and region-specific technology characteristics are explicitly included. This assessment includes a number of previously unaccounted or often misallocated emission sources, i.e. kerosene lamps, gas flaring, diesel generators, refuse burning; some of them were reported in the past for selected regions or in the context of a particular pollutant or sector but not included as part of a total estimate. Spatially, emissions were calculated for 172 source regions (as well as international shipping), presented for 25 global regions, and allocated to 0.5° × 0.5° longitude–latitude grids. No independent estimates of emissions from forest fires and savannah burning are provided and neither windblown dust nor unpaved roads emissions are included. We estimate that global emissions of PM have not changed significantly between 1990 and 2010, showing a strong decoupling from the global increase in energy consumption and, consequently, CO2 emissions, but there are significantly different regional trends, with a particularly strong increase in East Asia and Africa and a strong decline in Europe, North America, and the Pacific region. This in turn resulted in important changes in the spatial pattern of PM burden, e.g. European, North American, and Pacific contributions to global emissions dropped from nearly 30 % in 1990 to well below 15 % in 2010, while Asia's contribution grew from just over 50 % to nearly two-thirds of the global total in 2010. For all PM species considered, Asian sources represented over 60 % of the global anthropogenic total, and residential combustion was the most important sector, contributing about 60 % for BC and OC, 45 % for PM2. 5, and less than 40 % for PM10, where large combustion sources and industrial processes are equally important. Global anthropogenic emissions of BC were estimated at about 6.6 and 7.2 Tg in 2000 and 2010, respectively, and represent about 15 % of PM2. 5 but for some sources reach nearly 50 %, i.e. for the transport sector. Our global BC numbers are higher than previously published owing primarily to the inclusion of new sources. This PM estimate fills the gap in emission data and emission source characterization required in air quality and climate modelling studies and health impact assessments at a regional and global level, as it includes both carbonaceous and non-carbonaceous constituents of primary particulate matter emissions. The developed emission dataset has been used in several regional and global atmospheric transport and climate model simulations within the ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants) project and beyond, serves better parameterization of the global integrated assessment models with respect to representation of black carbon and organic carbon emissions, and built a basis for recently published global particulate number estimates.
Starting from an inventory of SO^sub 2^, NO^sub x^, VOC and NH^sub 3^ emissions for the years 1990 and 1995 in East Asia (Japan, South and North Korea, China, Mongolia and Taiwan), the temporal ...development of the emissions of the four air pollutants is projected to the year 2030 based on scenarios of economic development. The projections are prepared at a regional level (prefectures or provinces of individual countries) and distinguish more than 100 source categories for each region. The emission estimates are presented with a spatial resolution of 1×1 degree longitude/latitude. First results suggest that, due to the emission control legislation taken in the region, SO^sub 2^ emissions would only grow by about 46 percent until 2030. Emissions of NO^sub x^ and VOC may increase by 95 and 65 percent, respectively, mainly driven by the expected increase in road traffic volume. Ammonia, mainly emitted from agriculture, is projected to double by 2030.PUBLICATION ABSTRACT
Strong economic growth in China has fueled development of cities where increase in energy demand and transportation lead to severe air pollution. The cities contribute also a significant share of the ...national greenhouse gas emissions. We identify strong synergies between air quality and climate relevant measures that would allow improving cost-efficiency of air pollution policies. In order to help local policy makers to identify viable and efficient solutions, we developed a city-scale emission model (GAINS-City) based on the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model developed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA, Austria). The GAINS-City model relies on a technology-based approach to evaluate the co-benefits of various policies. This approach allows for estimation of emission reductions of several pollutants (including SO2, NOX, PM) and CO2 for individual policies and support evaluation of co-benefits. In addition, a reduction index, an integrated rank of the individual reductions potential, was defined to recommend the priority of policies implementation. The approach will have great potential to be applied in many large cities with local input data and/or minor structure modifications. We conducted a case study in Beijing to demonstrate the model features. Based on the technology-based evaluation approach, policy packages were designed and implemented in policy scenarios. The emissions under three scenarios (Baseline, Air Quality, and Strict Air Quality) in base year (2005) and future years (2020 and 2030) were estimated. The results indicate a significant reduction potential. In 2030, implementation of Air Quality and Strict Air Quality scenarios could result in reductions of 39–48% of SO2 emissions, 38–42% of NOX emissions, 37–55% of PM2.5 emissions and 5–22% of CO2 emissions respectively, compared with the Baseline scenario. The results demonstrated air quality policies and measures could also have co-benefits of reducing CO2 emissions. However, there is no significant difference of reductions between the two policy scenarios, which indicates the limited further reduction potential in the stricter air quality case. This calls for a wider application of cleaner technologies, such as IGCC and CCS, and more aggressive air quality measures by neighboring provinces to control regional air pollution.
•We developed a city-scale integrated assessment model (GAINS-City).•The model structure accommodates for specific local circumstances.•This approach allows to explore the co-benefits of air quality and climate policies.•A case study for Beijing was conducted to demonstrate the model features.•GAINS-City framework can be applied for analysis of other megacities.
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are widely used as cooling agents in refrigeration and air conditioning, as solvents in industrial processes, as fire-extinguishing agents, for foam blowing, and as aerosol ...propellants. They have been used in large quantities as the primary substitutes for
ozone-depleting substances regulated under the Montreal Protocol. However, many HFCs are potent greenhouse gases (GHGs) and as such subject to
global phase-down under the Kigali Amendment (KA) to the Montreal Protocol. In this study, we develop a range of long-term scenarios for HFC
emissions under varying degrees of stringency in climate policy and assess co-benefits in the form of electricity savings and associated reductions
in GHG and air pollutant emissions. Due to technical opportunities to improve energy efficiency in cooling technologies, there exist potentials for
significant electricity savings under a well-managed phase-down of HFCs. Our results reveal that the opportunity to simultaneously improve energy
efficiency in stationary cooling technologies could bring additional climate benefits of about the same magnitude as that attributed to the HFCs
phase-down. If technical energy efficiency improvements are fully implemented, the resulting electricity savings could exceed 20 % of future
global electricity consumption, while the corresponding figure for economic energy efficiency improvements would be about 15 %. The combined
effect of HFC phase-down, energy efficiency improvement of the stationary cooling technologies, and future changes in the electricity generation fuel
mix would prevent between 411 and 631 Pg CO2 equivalent of GHG emissions between 2018 and 2100, thereby making a significant
contribution towards keeping the global temperature rise below 2 ∘C. Reduced electricity consumption also means lower air pollution
emissions in the power sector, estimated at about 5 %–10 % for sulfur dioxide (SO2), 8 %–16 % for nitrogen oxides
(NOx), and 4 %–9 % for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions compared with a pre-Kigali baseline.
An initial study to calculate the effect of urban NO
x
levels on local ozone concentrations.
Tropospheric ozone concentrations regarded as harmful for human health are frequently encountered in ...Central Europe in summertime. Although ozone formation generally results from precursors transported over long distances, in urban areas local effects, such as reactions due to nearby emission sources, play a major role in determining ozone concentrations. Europe-wide mapping and modeling of population exposure to high ozone concentrations is subject to many uncertainties, because small-scale phenomena in urban areas can significantly change ozone levels from those of the surroundings. Currently the integrated assessment modeling of European ozone control strategies is done utilizing the results of large-scale models intended for estimating the rural background ozone levels. This paper presents an initial study on how much local nitrogen oxide (NO
x
) concentrations can explain variations between large-scale ozone model results and urban ozone measurements, on one hand, and between urban and nearby rural measurements, on the other. The impact of urban NO
x
concentrations on ozone levels was derived from chemical equations describing the ozone balance. The study investigated the applicability of the method for improving the accuracy of modeled population exposure, which is needed for efficient control strategy development. The method was tested with NO
x
and ozone measurements from both urban and rural areas in Switzerland and with the ozone predictions of the large-scale photochemical model currently used in designing Europe-wide control strategies for ground-level ozone. The results suggest that urban NO
x
levels are a significant explanatory factor in differences between urban and nearby rural ozone concentrations and that the phenomenon could be satisfactorily represented with this kind of method. Further research efforts should comprise testing of the method in more locations and analyzing the performance of more widely applicable ways of deriving the initial parameters.
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