Patients with 70-gene signature ultralow-risk breast cancers have shown excellent survival in historic cohorts, including randomized trials. The ultralow-risk subgroup was characterized to help avoid ...overtreatment. We evaluated outcomes of ultralow-risk patients in the largest cohort to date.
Of the 6,693 patients enrolled in the EORTC-10041/BIG-3-04 randomized phase III MINDACT trial, profiling revealed an ultralow-risk 70-gene signature in 1,000 patients (15%). Distant metastasis-free interval (DMFI) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) were assessed in patients stratified by 70-gene signature result (high, low, and ultralow) by Kaplan-Meier analysis and hazard ratios with 95% CI from Cox regression.
Median follow-up was 8.7 years. Of the ultralow-risk patients (n = 1,000), 67% were > 50 years, 81% had tumors ≤ 2 cm, 80% were lymph node-negative, 96% had grade 1 or 2 tumors, and 99% were estrogen receptor (ER)-positive. Systemic therapy was received by 84% of patients (69% endocrine therapy, 14% endocrine therapy plus chemotherapy, 1% other) and 16% received no adjuvant systemic treatment. The 8-year DMFI for ultralow-risk patients was 97.0% (95% CI, 95.8 to 98.1), which was 2.5% higher than for patients with low-risk tumors (n = 3,295, 94.5% 95% CI, 93.6 to 95.3). The hazard ratio for DMFI was 0.65 (95% CI, 0.45 to 0.94) for ultralow versus low risk, after adjusting for clinical-pathologic and treatment characteristics. The 8-year BCSS for ultralow-risk patients was 99.6% (95% CI, 99.1 to 100).
Patients with an ultralow-risk 70-gene signature have the best prognosis, distinctive from low risk, with 8-year BCSS above 99%, and very few patients developed distant metastases with an 8-year DMFI rate of 97%. These patients could be candidates for further de-escalation of treatment, to avoid overtreatment and the risk of side effects.
Linkage and candidate gene studies have identified several breast cancer susceptibility genes, but the overall contribution of coding variation to breast cancer is unclear. To evaluate the role of ...rare coding variants more comprehensively, we performed a meta-analysis across three large whole-exome sequencing datasets, containing 26,368 female cases and 217,673 female controls. Burden tests were performed for protein-truncating and rare missense variants in 15,616 and 18,601 genes, respectively. Associations between protein-truncating variants and breast cancer were identified for the following six genes at exome-wide significance (P < 2.5 × 10
): the five known susceptibility genes ATM, BRCA1, BRCA2, CHEK2 and PALB2, together with MAP3K1. Associations were also observed for LZTR1, ATR and BARD1 with P < 1 × 10
. Associations between predicted deleterious rare missense or protein-truncating variants and breast cancer were additionally identified for CDKN2A at exome-wide significance. The overall contribution of coding variants in genes beyond the previously known genes is estimated to be small.
Annexin A1 (AnxA1) is a candidate regulator of the epithelial- to mesenchymal (EMT)-like phenotypic switch, a pivotal event in breast cancer progression. We show here that AnxA1 expression is ...associated with a highly invasive basal-like breast cancer subtype both in a panel of human breast cancer cell lines as in breast cancer patients and that AnxA1 is functionally related to breast cancer progression. AnxA1 knockdown in invasive basal-like breast cancer cells reduced the number of spontaneous lung metastasis, whereas additional expression of AnxA1 enhanced metastatic spread. AnxA1 promotes metastasis formation by enhancing TGFβ/Smad signaling and actin reorganization, which facilitates an EMT-like switch, thereby allowing efficient cell migration and invasion of metastatic breast cancer cells.
The tumor–stroma ratio (TSR) was evaluated as a promising parameter for breast cancer prognostication in clinically relevant subgroups of patients. The TSR was assessed on hematoxylin and ...eosin‐stained tissue slides of 1,794 breast cancer patients from the Nottingham City Hospital. An independent second cohort of 737 patients from the Netherlands Cancer Institute to Antoni van Leeuwenhoek was used for evaluation. In the Nottingham Breast Cancer series, the TSR was an independent prognostic parameter for recurrence‐free survival (RFS; HR 1.35, 95% CI 1.10–1.66, p = 0.004). The interaction term was statistically significant for grade and triple‐negative status. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed a more pronounced effect of the TSR for RFS in grade III tumors (HR 1.89, 95% CI 1.43–2.51, p < 0.001) and triple‐negative tumors (HR 1.86, 95% CI 1.10–3.14, p = 0.020). Comparable hazard ratios and confidence intervals were observed for grade and triple‐negative status in the ONCOPOOL study. The prognostic value of TSR was not modified by age, tumor size, histology, estrogen receptor status, progesterone receptor status, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 status or lymph node status. In conclusion, patients with a stroma‐high tumor had a worse prognosis compared to patients with a stroma‐low tumor. The prognostic value of the TSR is most discriminative in grade III tumors and triple‐negative tumors. The TSR was not modified by other clinically relevant parameters making it a potential factor to be included for improved risk stratification.
What's new?
A tumor does not exist in isolation, and evaluation of its microenvironment or “stroma” could help determine clinical outcome in breast cancer. Here, the authors show that women with a stroma‐high tumor had a worse prognosis compared to women with a stroma‐low tumor. The prognostic value of the tumor‐stroma ratio was most discriminative in patients with grade III or triple negative breast cancer, thus making it a potential valuable factor to improve risk stratification for these patients.
Abstract
Background
Rigorous evaluation of the calibration and discrimination of breast-cancer risk-prediction models in prospective cohorts is critical for applications under clinical guidelines. We ...comprehensively evaluated an integrated model incorporating classical risk factors and a 313-variant polygenic risk score (PRS) to predict breast-cancer risk.
Methods
Fifteen prospective cohorts from six countries with 239 340 women (7646 incident breast-cancer cases) of European ancestry aged 19–75 years were included. Calibration of 5-year risk was assessed by comparing expected and observed proportions of cases overall and within risk categories. Risk stratification for women of European ancestry aged 50–70 years in those countries was evaluated by the proportion of women and future cases crossing clinically relevant risk thresholds.
Results
Among women <50 years old, the median (range) expected-to-observed ratio for the integrated model across 15 cohorts was 0.9 (0.7–1.0) overall and 0.9 (0.7–1.4) at the highest-risk decile; among women ≥50 years old, these were 1.0 (0.7–1.3) and 1.2 (0.7–1.6), respectively. The proportion of women identified above a 3% 5-year risk threshold (used for recommending risk-reducing medications in the USA) ranged from 7.0% in Germany (∼841 000 of 12 million) to 17.7% in the USA (∼5.3 of 30 million). At this threshold, 14.7% of US women were reclassified by adding the PRS to classical risk factors, with identification of 12.2% of additional future cases.
Conclusion
Integrating a 313-variant PRS with classical risk factors can improve the identification of European-ancestry women at elevated risk who could benefit from targeted risk-reducing strategies under current clinical guidelines.
Our study aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of trends in incidence, survival, mortality and treatment of first primary invasive breast cancer (BC), according to age, stage and receptor ...subtype in the Netherlands between 1989 and 2017. Data from all women diagnosed with first primary stage I to IV BC (N = 320 249) were obtained from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. BC mortality and general population data were retrieved from Statistics Netherlands. Age‐standardised incidence and mortality rates were calculated with annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) statistics. The relative survival (RS) was used as estimator for disease‐specific survival. The BC incidence for all BC patients combined significantly increased until 2013 from 126 to 158 per 100 000 person‐years, after which a declining trend was observed. Surgery became less extensive, but (neo‐)adjuvant systemic treatments and their combinations were given more frequently. The RS improved for all age groups and for most stages and receptor subtypes, but remained stable for all subtypes since 2012 to 2013 and since 2000 to 2009 for Stage IV BC at 15 years of follow‐up. Overall, the 5‐ and 10‐year RS increased from 76.8% (95% confidence interval CI: 76.1, 77.4) and 55.9% (95% CI: 54.7, 57.1) in 1989 to 1999 to 91.0% (95% CI: 90.5, 91.5) and 82.9% (95% CI: 82.2, 83.5), respectively, in 2010 to 2016. BC mortality improved regardless of age and overall decreased from 57 to 35 per 100 000 person‐years between 1989 and 2017. In conclusion, the BC incidence in the Netherlands has steadily increased since 1989, but the latest trends show promising declines. Survival improved markedly for most patients and the mortality decreased regardless of age.
What's new?
Studies that simultaneously capture incidence, survival, and mortality trends in breast cancer are scarce, and receptor subtype‐specific trends have remained largely unexplored. This study provides an up‐to‐date and comprehensive overview of first primary invasive breast cancer trends in the Netherlands in 1989 to 2017. Breast cancer incidence increased for all breast cancer patients combined until 2013, but the latest trends show a promising decline. Treatment strategies became more complex. Relative survival improved for all age groups and for most stages and receptor subtypes, and mortality decreased overall. The results may be useful in supporting healthcare management and informing current clinical practice.
Purpose
To assess the effect of different treatment strategies on the risk of subsequent invasive breast cancer (IBC) in women diagnosed with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS).
Methods
Up to 15-year ...cumulative incidences of ipsilateral IBC (iIBC) and contralateral IBC (cIBC) were assessed among a population-based cohort of 10,090 women treated for DCIS in the Netherlands between 1989 and 2004. Multivariable Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate associations of treatment with iIBC risk.
Results
Fifteen years after DCIS diagnosis, cumulative incidence of iIBC was 1.9 % after mastectomy, 8.8 % after BCS+RT, and 15.4 % after BCS alone. Patients treated with BCS alone had a higher iIBC risk than those treated with BCS+RT during the first 5 years after treatment. This difference was less pronounced for patients <50 years hazard ratio (HR) 2.11, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.35–3.29 for women <50, and HR 4.44, 95 % CI 3.11–6.36 for women ≥50,
P
interaction
< 0.0001. Beyond 5 years of follow-up, iIBC risk did not differ between patients treated with BCS+RT or BCS alone for women <50. Cumulative incidence of cIBC at 15 years was 6.4 %, compared to 3.4 % in the general population.
Conclusions
We report an interaction of treatment with age and follow-up period on iIBC risk, indicating that the benefit of RT seems to be smaller among younger women, and stressing the importance of clinical studies with long follow-up. Finally, the low cIBC risk does not justify contralateral prophylactic mastectomies for many women with unilateral DCIS.
BOADICEA (Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm) for breast cancer and the epithelial tubo-ovarian cancer (EOC) models included in the CanRisk tool ...(www.canrisk.org) provide future cancer risks based on pathogenic variants in cancer-susceptibility genes, polygenic risk scores, breast density, questionnaire-based risk factors and family history. Here, we extend the models to include the effects of pathogenic variants in recently established breast cancer and EOC susceptibility genes, up-to-date age-specific pathology distributions and continuous risk factors.
BOADICEA was extended to further incorporate the associations of pathogenic variants in
,
and
with breast cancer risk. The EOC model was extended to include the association of
pathogenic variants with EOC risk. Age-specific distributions of oestrogen-receptor-negative and triple-negative breast cancer status for pathogenic variant carriers in these genes and
and
were also incorporated. A novel method to include continuous risk factors was developed, exemplified by including adult height as continuous.
,
and
explain 0.31% of the breast cancer polygenic variance. When incorporated into the multifactorial model, 34%-44% of these carriers would be reclassified to the near-population and 15%-22% to the high-risk categories based on the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines. Under the EOC multifactorial model, 62%, 35% and 3% of
carriers have lifetime EOC risks of <5%, 5%-10% and >10%, respectively. Including height as continuous, increased the breast cancer relative risk variance from 0.002 to 0.010.
These extensions will allow for better personalised risks for
,
,
and
pathogenic variant carriers and more informed choices on screening, prevention, risk factor modification or other risk-reducing options.
Aims/hypothesis
The aim of this work was to investigate the relationship between use of certain insulins and risk for cancer, when addressing the limitations and biases involved in previous studies.
...Methods
National Health Registries from Denmark (1996–2010), Finland (1996–2011), Norway (2005–2010) and Sweden (2007–2012) and the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink database (1987–2013) were used to conduct a cohort study on new insulin users (
N
= 327,112). By using a common data model and semi-aggregate approach, we pooled individual-level records from five cohorts and applied Poisson regression models. For each of ten cancer sites studied, we estimated the rate ratios (RRs) by duration (≤0.5, 0.5–1, 1–2, 2–3, 3–4, 4–5, 5–6 and >6 years) of cumulative exposure to insulin glargine or insulin detemir relative to that of human insulin.
Results
A total of 21,390 cancer cases occurred during a mean follow-up of 4.6 years. No trend with cumulative treatment time for insulin glargine relative to human insulin was observed in risk for any of the ten studied cancer types. Of the 136 associations tested in the main analysis, only a few increased and decreased risks were found: among women, a higher risk was observed for colorectal (RR 1.54, 95% CI 1.06, 2.25) and endometrial cancer (RR 1.78, 95% CI 1.07, 2.94) for ≤0.5 years of treatment and for malignant melanoma for 2–3 years (RR 1.92, 95% CI 1.02, 3.61) and 4–5 years (RR 3.55, 95% CI 1.68, 7.47); among men, a lower risk was observed for pancreatic cancer for 2–3 years (RR 0.34, 95% CI 0.17, 0.66) and for liver cancer for 3–4 years (RR 0.36, 95% CI 0.14, 0.94) and >6 years (RR 0.22, 95% CI 0.05, 0.92). Comparisons of insulin detemir with human insulin also showed no consistent differences.
Conclusions
/
interpretation
The present multi-country study found no evidence of consistent differences in risk for ten cancers for insulin glargine or insulin detemir use compared with human insulin, at follow-up exceeding 5 years.
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