Infectious disease forecasting aims to predict characteristics of both seasonal epidemics and future pandemics. Accurate and timely infectious disease forecasts could aid public health responses by ...informing key preparation and mitigation efforts.
For forecasts to be fully integrated into public health decision-making, federal, state, and local officials must understand how forecasts were made, how to interpret forecasts, and how well the forecasts have performed in the past. Since the 2013-14 influenza season, the Influenza Division at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has hosted collaborative challenges to forecast the timing, intensity, and short-term trajectory of influenza-like illness in the United States. Additional efforts to advance forecasting science have included influenza initiatives focused on state-level and hospitalization forecasts, as well as other infectious diseases. Using CDC influenza forecasting challenges as an example, this paper provides an overview of infectious disease forecasting; applications of forecasting to public health; and current work to develop best practices for forecast methodology, applications, and communication.
These efforts, along with other infectious disease forecasting initiatives, can foster the continued advancement of forecasting science.
Background
Influenza hospitalizations result in substantial morbidity and mortality each year. Little is known about the association between influenza hospitalization and census tract‐based ...socioeconomic determinants beyond the effect of individual factors.
Objective
To evaluate whether census tract‐based determinants such as poverty and household crowding would contribute significantly to the risk of influenza hospitalization above and beyond individual‐level determinants.
Methods
We analyzed 33 515 laboratory‐confirmed influenza‐associated hospitalizations that occurred during the 2009‐2010 through 2013‐2014 influenza seasons using a population‐based surveillance system at 14 sites across the United States.
Results
Using a multilevel regression model, we found that individual factors were associated with influenza hospitalization with the highest adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of 9.20 (95% CI 8.72‐9.70) for those ≥65 vs 5‐17 years old. African Americans had an AOR of 1.67 (95% CI 1.60‐1.73) compared to Whites, and Hispanics had an AOR of 1.21 (95% CI 1.16‐1.26) compared to non‐Hispanics. Among census tract‐based determinants, those living in a tract with ≥20% vs <5% of persons living below poverty had an AOR of 1.31 (95% CI 1.16‐1.47), those living in a tract with ≥5% vs <5% of persons living in crowded conditions had an AOR of 1.17 (95% CI 1.11‐1.23), and those living in a tract with ≥40% vs <5% female heads of household had an AOR of 1.32 (95% CI 1.25‐1.40).
Conclusion
Census tract‐based determinants account for 11% of the variability in influenza hospitalization.
Background
A multi‐phase Canadian study was conducted as part of a large‐scale community and academic research partnership focused on understanding and improving the employment experiences of people ...with intellectual disabilities.
Method
This multi‐method study utilized a sequential approach, using findings from qualitative interviews (n = 28) to inform an online survey (n = 149). Participants were invited to share their experiences with paid employment or with persons with intellectual disabilities.
Results
Thematic analysis of data across interview and survey findings resulted in six themes: (1) assumptions and attitudes, (2) knowledge and awareness, (3) accessibility of processes, (4) use of accommodations, (5) workplace relationships, and (6) supports and resources.
Conclusions
A holistic and systemic approach has the potential to improve inclusive employment experiences of people with intellectual disabilities. Action is needed mainly at the policy and employer level to reduce barriers and improve on facilitating measures reinforced by the themes shared in this study.
Abstract
Background
Early influenza antiviral treatment within 2 days of illness onset can reduce illness severity and duration. Reliance on low sensitivity rapid influenza diagnostic tests (RIDTs) ...to guide antiviral prescribing has been reported. We describe antiviral prescribing practices among primary care providers from a large surveillance network in the United States.
Methods
From 2009–2016, a network of 36 to 68 outpatient clinics per year collected respiratory specimens and clinical data for patients with influenza-like illness (ILI). Specimens were tested for influenza using polymerase chain reaction (PCR). We used multivariable logistic regression to assess factors influencing antiviral prescribing.
Results
Among 13 540 patients with ILI, 2766 (20%) were prescribed antivirals. In age groups recommended to receive empiric antiviral treatment for suspected influenza, 11% of children <2 years and 23% of adults ≥65 years received a prescription. Among 3681 patients with a positive PCR test for influenza, 40% tested negative by RIDT. In multivariable analysis, prescription receipt was strongly associated with a positive RIDT (adjusted odds ratio aOR 12, 95% CI 11–14) and symptom onset ≤2 days before visit (aOR 4.3, 95% CI 3.8–4.9). Antiviral prescribing was also more frequent among pediatric and private family practice clinics compared with community health centers (aOR 1.9, 95% CI 1.6–2.2, and 1.3, 95% CI 1.1–1.5, respectively).
Conclusion
Primary care providers were more likely to prescribe antivirals to patients with a positive RIDT, but antivirals were prescribed infrequently even to patients in high-risk age groups. Understanding patient and provider characteristics associated with antiviral prescribing is important for communicating treatment recommendations.
Influenza antivirals were under prescribed in young children and older adults, who were recommended to receive empiric treatment for suspected influenza. We demonstrated that reliance on rapid diagnostic testing with inadequate sensitivity is common.
Military affiliated children living in the United States generally attend local public schools and have a portion of their education expenses paid by the federal government through Impact Aid. ...President Harry Truman in 1950 established Impact Aid to provide financial relief to local education agencies (LEA) that were burdened by federal activity. The Department of Education oversees this federal education program that directly wire transfers funds to the bank accounts of LEAs that qualify. Many school administrators do not fully understand the provisions of the program and this lack of understanding results in school districts receiving less than the authorized level of Federal Impact Aid Funds. Many school districts stand to benefit significantly from Impact Aid revenue, once administrators gain knowledge of the program and accurately account for federally connected students that impact their districts. This study involved an extensive search for historical and current statutory language and litigation surrounding issues related to funding the education of military affiliated children in American public schools. This is an area of the law that is constantly under review as it competes financially with other federal education programs. Thus, this study summarized and analyzed the history and current status of legislation and litigation for the purposes of providing educational administrators a concise, practical guide to understanding the law and to obtaining the maximum appropriated amount of Impact Aid. Using the history to inform the present, this paper will provide administrators with an understanding of why the law exists, how it has evolved, and how to receive the maximum benefits for their students. Using standard legal research methodology, special attention was paid to Impact Aid legislation and the financial appropriations set by Congress. An extensive historical background of caselaw and statutes related to military affiliated students that qualify for Impact Aid, state and federal court decisions, law review articles, Impact Aid affiliated school network information, and other scholarly publications were reviewed. This study concludes with recommendations for educators aimed at increasing maximum Impact Aid reimbursements and suggested topics for future studies.
The impact of a female sportswriter's presence on a newspaper staff was examined by content analysis, studying photo and copy space devoted to both male and female sports coverage. Composite weeks, ...one each from each quarter of the year following the woman's date of hire were selected from the only four newspapers in the state of Indiana hiring female sportswriters. Compared to similar Indiana newspapers without female sportswriters, those with female staffers were found to devote more copy and photo space to women's coverage in the entire sports section, and on the sports section front page, papers with female sportswriters used more photos of women and devoted more total space (photos and copy) to women's sports coverage. The effect was consistent regardless of the newspaper's market size.
Department of Journalism
Although we have convincing evidence that attention to auditory stimuli modulates neuronal responses at or before the level of primary auditory cortex (A1), the underlying physiological mechanisms ...are unknown. We found that attending to rhythmic auditory streams resulted in the entrainment of ongoing oscillatory activity reflecting rhythmic excitability fluctuations in A1. Strikingly, although the rhythm of the entrained oscillations in A1 neuronal ensembles reflected the temporal structure of the attended stream, the phase depended on the attended frequency content. Counter-phase entrainment across differently tuned A1 regions resulted in both the amplification and sharpening of responses at attended time points, in essence acting as a spectrotemporal filter mechanism. Our data suggest that selective attention generates a dynamically evolving model of attended auditory stimulus streams in the form of modulatory subthreshold oscillations across tonotopically organized neuronal ensembles in A1 that enhances the representation of attended stimuli.
► Selective attention results in a spatiotemporal modulation of excitability in A1 ► Subthreshold neuronal activity models attended auditory streams via entrainment ► Entrained neuronal oscillations across A1 act as a spectrotemporal filter mechanism ► Oscillatory entrainment modulates and stabilizes responses to attended stimuli
The study by Lakatos et al. shows that the spatiotemporal pattern of excitability fluctuations across neuronal ensembles in primary auditory cortex models both the temporal structure and spectral content of attended stimuli, which results in an enhancement and stabilization of their sensory representation.
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