We present a new technique to create a bin-averaged Hubble diagram (HD) from photometrically identified SN Ia data. The resulting HD is corrected for selection biases and contamination from ...core-collapse (CC) SNe, and can be used to infer cosmological parameters. This method, called "BEAMS with Bias Corrections" (BBC), includes two fitting stages. The first BBC fitting stage uses a posterior distribution that includes multiple SN likelihoods, a Monte Carlo simulation to bias-correct the fitted SALT-II parameters, and CC probabilities determined from a machine-learning technique. The BBC fit determines (1) a bin-averaged HD (average distance versus redshift), and (2) the nuisance parameters and β, which multiply the stretch and color (respectively) to standardize the SN brightness. In the second stage, the bin-averaged HD is fit to a cosmological model where priors can be imposed. We perform high-precision tests of the BBC method by simulating large (150,000 event) data samples corresponding to the Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program. Our tests include three models of intrinsic scatter, each with two different CC rates. In the BBC fit, the SALT-II nuisance parameters and β are recovered to within 1% of their true values. In the cosmology fit, we determine the dark energy equation of state parameter w using a fixed value of as a prior: averaging over all six tests based on 6 × 150,000 = 900,000 SNe, there is a small w-bias of . Finally, the BBC fitting code is publicly available in the SNANA package.
ABSTRACT Simulations of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) surveys are a critical tool for correcting biases in the analysis of SNe Ia to infer cosmological parameters. Large-scale Monte Carlo simulations ...include a thorough treatment of observation history, measurement noise, intrinsic scatter models, and selection effects. In this Letter, we improve simulations with a robust technique to evaluate the underlying populations of SN Ia color and stretch that correlate with luminosity. In typical analyses, the standardized SN Ia brightness is determined from linear "Tripp" relations between the light curve color and luminosity and between stretch and luminosity. However, this solution produces Hubble residual biases because intrinsic scatter and measurement noise result in measured color and stretch values that do not follow the Tripp relation. We find a 10 bias (up to 0.3 mag) in Hubble residuals versus color and 5 bias (up to 0.2 mag) in Hubble residuals versus stretch in a joint sample of 920 spectroscopically confirmed SN Ia from PS1, SNLS, SDSS, and several low-z surveys. After we determine the underlying color and stretch distributions, we use simulations to predict and correct the biases in the data. We show that removing these biases has a small impact on the low-z sample, but reduces the intrinsic scatter int from 0.101 to 0.083 in the combined PS1, SNLS, and SDSS sample. Past estimates of the underlying populations were too broad, leading to a small bias in the equation of state of dark energy w of Δw = 0.005.
We present optical light curves, redshifts, and classifications for spectroscopically confirmed Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) discovered by the Pan-STARRS1 (PS1) Medium Deep Survey. We detail ...improvements to the PS1 SN photometry, astrometry, and calibration that reduce the systematic uncertainties in the PS1 SN Ia distances. We combine the subset of PS1 SNe Ia (0.03 < z < 0.68) with useful distance estimates of SNe Ia from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), SNLS, and various low-z and Hubble Space Telescope samples to form the largest combined sample of SNe Ia, consisting of a total of SNe Ia in the range of 0.01 < z < 2.3, which we call the "Pantheon Sample." When combining Planck 2015 cosmic microwave background (CMB) measurements with the Pantheon SN sample, we find and for the wCDM model. When the SN and CMB constraints are combined with constraints from BAO and local H0 measurements, the analysis yields the most precise measurement of dark energy to date: and for the CDM model. Tension with a cosmological constant previously seen in an analysis of PS1 and low-z SNe has diminished after an increase of 2× in the statistics of the PS1 sample, improved calibration and photometry, and stricter light-curve quality cuts. We find that the systematic uncertainties in our measurements of dark energy are almost as large as the statistical uncertainties, primarily due to limitations of modeling the low-redshift sample. This must be addressed for future progress in using SNe Ia to measure dark energy.
The Wide Field InfraRed Survey Telescope (WFIRST) was the highest-ranked large space-based mission of the 2010 New Worlds, New Horizons decadal survey. It is now a NASA mission in formulation with a ...planned launch in the mid 2020s. A primary mission objective is to precisely constrain the nature of dark energy through multiple probes, including Type Ia supernovae (SN Ia). Here, we present the first realistic simulations of the WFIRST SN survey based on current hardware specifications and using open-source tools. We simulate SN light curves and spectra as viewed by the WFIRST wide-field channel (WFC) imager and integral field channel (IFC) spectrometer, respectively. We examine 11 survey strategies with different time allocations between the WFC and IFC, two of which are based upon the strategy described by the WFIRST Science Definition Team, which measures SN distances exclusively from IFC data. We propagate statistical and, crucially, systematic uncertainties to predict the Dark Energy Task Force figure of merit (FoM) for each strategy. Of the strategies investigated, we find the most successful to be WFC focused. However, further work in constraining systematics is required to fully optimize the use of the IFC. Even without improvements to other cosmological probes, the WFIRST SN survey has the potential to increase the FoM by more than an order of magnitude from the current values. Although the survey strategies presented here have not been fully optimized, these initial investigations are an important step in the development of the final hardware design and implementation of the WFIRST mission.
We present simulated observations to assess the ability of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) and the wide-fast-deep (WFD) survey to detect and characterize kilonovae-the optical emission ...associated with binary neutron star (and possibly black hole-neutron star) mergers. We expand on previous studies in several critical ways by exploring a range of kilonova models and several choices of cadence, as well as by evaluating the information content of the resulting light curves. We find that, depending on the precise choice of cadence, the WFD survey will achieve an average kilonova detection efficiency of 1.6%-2.5% and detect only 3-6 kilonovae per year. The detected kilonovae will be within the detection volume of the Advanced LIGO/Virgo (ALV). By refitting the best resulting LSST light curves with the same model used to generate them, we find that the model parameters are generally weakly constrained, and are accurate to at best a factor of 2-3. Motivated by the finding that the WFD will yield a small number of kilonova detections, with poor light curves and marginal information content, and that the detections are in any case inside the ALV volume, we argue that target-of-opportunity follow-up of gravitational-wave triggers is a much more effective approach for kilonova studies. We outline the qualitative foundation for such a program with the goal of minimizing the impact on LSST operations. We argue that observations in the gz-bands with a total time investment per event of 1.5 hr per 10 deg2 of a search area is sufficient to rapidly detect and identify kilonovae with 90% efficiency. For an estimated event rate of ∼20 per year visible to LSST, this accounts for ∼1.5% of the total survey time. In this regime, LSST has the potential to be a powerful tool for kilonovae discovery, with detected events handed off to other narrow-field facilities for further monitoring.
We present a measurement of the Hubble constant made using geometric distance measurements to megamaser-hosting galaxies. We have applied an improved approach for fitting maser data and obtained ...better distance estimates for four galaxies previously published by the Megamaser Cosmology Project: UGC 3789, NGC 6264, NGC 6323, and NGC 5765b. Combining these updated distance measurements with those for the maser galaxies CGCG 074-064 and NGC 4258, and assuming a fixed velocity uncertainty of 250 km s−1 associated with peculiar motions, we constrain the Hubble constant to be H0 = 73.9 3.0 km s−1 Mpc−1 independent of distance ladders and the cosmic microwave background. This best value relies solely on maser-based distance and velocity measurements, and it does not use any peculiar velocity corrections. Different approaches for correcting peculiar velocities do not modify H0 by more than 1 , with the full range of best-fit Hubble constant values spanning 71.8-76.9 km s−1 Mpc−1. We corroborate prior indications that the local value of H0 exceeds the early-universe value, with a confidence level varying from 95% to 99% for different treatments of the peculiar velocities.
Abstract
A spectral-energy distribution (SED) model for Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) is a critical tool for measuring precise and accurate distances across a large redshift range and constraining ...cosmological parameters. We present an improved model framework, SALT3, which has several advantages over current models—including the leading SALT2 model (SALT2.4). While SALT3 has a similar philosophy, it differs from SALT2 by having improved estimation of uncertainties, better separation of color and light-curve stretch, and a publicly available training code. We present the application of our training method on a cross-calibrated compilation of 1083 SNe with 1207 spectra. Our compilation is 2.5× larger than the SALT2 training sample and has greatly reduced calibration uncertainties. The resulting trained SALT3.K21 model has an extended wavelength range 2000–11,000 Å (1800 Å redder) and reduced uncertainties compared to SALT2, enabling accurate use of low-
z I
and
iz
photometric bands. Including these previously discarded bands, SALT3.K21 reduces the Hubble scatter of the low-
z
Foundation and CfA3 samples by 15% and 10%, respectively. To check for potential systematic uncertainties, we compare distances of low (0.01 <
z
< 0.2) and high (0.4 <
z
< 0.6) redshift SNe in the training compilation, finding an insignificant 3 ± 14 mmag shift between SALT2.4 and SALT3.K21. While the SALT3.K21 model was trained on optical data, our method can be used to build a model for rest-frame NIR samples from the Roman Space Telescope. Our open-source training code, public training data, model, and documentation are available at
https://saltshaker.readthedocs.io/en/latest/
, and the model is integrated into the
sncosmo
and
SNANA
software packages.
We present griz sub(P1) light curves of 146 spectroscopically confirmed Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia; 0.03 < z < 0.65) discovered during the first 1.5 yr of the Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey. The ...Pan-STARRS1 natural photometric system is determined by a combination of on-site measurements of the instrument response function and observations of spectrophotometric standard stars. We find that the systematic uncertainties in the photometric system are currently 1.2% without accounting for the uncertainty in the Hubble Space Telescope Calspec definition of the AB system. A Hubble diagram is constructed with a subset of 113 out of 146 SNe Ia that pass our light curve quality cuts. The cosmological fit to 310 SNe Ia (113 PSI SNe Ia + 222 light curves from 197 low-z SNe Ia), using only supernovae (SNe) and assuming a constant dark energy equation of state and flatness, yields w = -1.120 super(+0.360) sub(-0.206)(Stat) super(+0.269) sub(-0.291)(Sys). When combined with BAO+CMB(Planck)+H sub(0), the analysis yields Omega sub(M) = 0.280 super(0.013) sub(-0.012) and w = 1.166 super(+0.072) sub(-0.069) including all identified systematics. The value of w is inconsistent with the cosmological constant value of -1 at the 2.3sigma level. Tension endures after removing either the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) or the H sub(0) constraint, though it is strongest when including the H sub(0) constraint. If we include WMAP9 cosmic microwave background (CMB) constraints instead of those from Planck, we find w = -1.124 super(+0.083) sub(-0.065) which diminishes the discord to <2sigma. We cannot conclude whether the tension with flat ACDM is a feature of dark energy, new physics, or a combination of chance and systematic errors. The full Pan-STARRS1 SN sample with ~three times as many SNe should provide more conclusive results.
The observed tension (∼9% difference) between the local distance ladder measurement of the Hubble constant, H0, and its value inferred from the cosmic microwave background could hint at new, exotic, ...cosmological physics. We test the impact of the assumption about the expansion history of the universe ( ) on the local distance ladder estimate of H0. In the fiducial analysis, the Hubble flow Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) sample is truncated to z < 0.15, and the deceleration parameter (q0) is fixed to −0.55. We create realistic simulations of the calibrator and Pantheon samples, and account for a full systematics covariance between these two sets. We fit several physically motivated dark-energy models, and derive combined constraints from calibrator and Pantheon SNe Ia and simultaneously infer H0 and dark-energy properties. We find that the assumption on the dark-energy model does not significantly change the local distance ladder value of H0, with a maximum difference (ΔH0) between the inferred value for different models of 0.47 km , i.e., a 0.6% shift in H0, significantly smaller than the observed tension. Additional freedom in the dark-energy models does not increase the error in the inferred value of H0. Including systematics covariance between the calibrators, low-redshift SNe, and high-redshift SNe can induce small shifts in the inferred value for H0. The SN Ia systematics in this study contribute 0.8% to the total uncertainty of H0.
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